Canada’s Energy Future: What Role for Wind Power? Jim Prall Systems Programmer The Edward S....
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Transcript of Canada’s Energy Future: What Role for Wind Power? Jim Prall Systems Programmer The Edward S....
Canada’s Energy Future:What Role for Wind Power?
Jim Prall Systems Programmer
The Edward S. Rogers Sr.. Dept. Of Electrical and Computer Engineering
University of [email protected]
http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall
part-time student of climatology (etc.)
The Wind Power Industry
• Wind power the fastest growing sector– As high as 30% per year growth
• Already a mature industry worldwide– Dozens of major manufacturers– Consolidation under way– Mature designs now in mass production
• Wind power prices already competitive in many markets, getting closer elsewhere
Wind Power Worldwide
Germany 14609
Spain 6202
Denmark 3110
Netherlands 912
Italy 904
United Kingdom 649
Austria 415
Sweden 399
Greece 375
Portugal 299
France 239
Ireland 186
2003 Rated capacity, MW
USA 4685
Canada 322
Denmark supplying 18% of national demand from wind!
Wind Power in Ontario
Operator LocationDate in Service Equipment
rated kW Status
Ontario Hydro Tiverton 1995/10 1x Tacke TW-600 CWM (600 kW) 600 Active
O.P.G. Pickering 2001/10 1x Vestas V80 (1,800 kW) 1,800 Active
Private Port Albert 2001/12 1x Vestas V47 (660 kW) 660 Active
Huron Wind Kincardine 2002/11 5x Vestas V80 9,000 Active
Sky Generation Ferndale 2002/11 1x Vestas V80 1,800 Active
Source: http://www.canwea.ca/CanadianProduction.html
Wind Power in Canada
• Canada has decent wind resources• Yet wind industry not as far along here• Why not?
– Cheap power• fossil fuels historically subsidized
– Limited political support so far– Provincial utilities slow to embrace wind– Hydro & nuclear power well developed
• Both avoid air quality & CO2 concerns• This may mean less public pressure for wind
– Lenders unfamiliar with wind charge more
Phasing Out Coal
Smog KILLS thousandsin Canada each year
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/pphb-dgspsp/publicat/rdc-mrc01/pdf/rdc0901e.pdf
http://eastern.sierraclub.ca/campaign_coal_fired_power_is_killing_us.shtml
http://www.oma.org/phealth/report/airq001.pdf
Phasing Out Coal
• Smog kills almost 2000 each year• Coal power plants a big problem
– More prevalent in U.S. than Canada– Coal reliance by Province:
• Alberta: 81% • Saskatchewan: 69% • Nova Scotia: 80%• New Brunswick: 35%• Ontario: 16% <- but out of 22 GW peak load!• Manitoba: 1%
How Much Wind: Rated Capacity vs. Yield
• rated or nameplate capacity vs. working output: “capacity factor” (CF)
• Depends on technology and application
• For wind power this is a vital statistic!
• In better wind sites, wind turbine yields can run about 35% CF. So can’t match 1 MW of wind to 1 MW of other types.
Price of Power Today
• Ontario example: retail price per kWh– Generation: 4.3 ¢
• To be raised to 4.7 ¢ (5.5 ¢ after the first 750 kWh/mo.)
– Transmission: 1.1 ¢– Distribution: 0.7 – 1.1 ¢
• Varies with local hydro distribution co.
– System operation & regulation: 0.6 ¢– Stranded nuclear debt charge: 0.7¢– Total: 7.3 to 7.7 ¢/kWh
• Will become 7.7 to 8.1 ¢/kWh (8.5 – 8.9 in 2nd block)
How Much Wind Resource Is Out There?
• Wind Resource Assessments– National– Provincial– Local
• Software modeling is pivotal– a good place to apply computer skills– relies on climatology
How Much of the Wind Can Be Exploited?
• Cost-effectiveness – Levelized cost: overall cost / lifetime yield– Cost of borrowing looms large
• Site ownership / availability• Siting acceptability & permits
– Public concern with:• sight• noise• perceived dangers
• Hooking into the power grid– Proximity to Transmission– Proximity to Loads
Wind Varies with Height
• The geostrophic or “free” wind is strong:– average 25 m/s
• But the speed at the surface is zero
• The profile of wind with height depends on surface roughness
• Low-level turbulence leads to problems
http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm
To Get at the Best Winds...
• Build taller towers?– but this adds cost– and there are practical limits to height– the public and the aviation industry may object
• Mountains?
• Tops of tall buildings?
Getting at Good Winds
• In the end, you need to go to the best locations: flat areas– low surface roughness– long flat “fetch” upwind of your site– least turbulence as well
• Open water
• Prairies & farm country
• Tundra
Canadian Wind Mapping
• Canada's wind mapping not complete:– National map stalled
• Completed only coarse map (25km resolution)• Authors advise the offshore model is unreliable!• Fails to represent mountainous terrain traits• Only 4 smaller areas modeled to Level 1 (5km)• No new data posted in the past year
– Provinces working independently on mapping• BC – completed:
http://www.bchydro.com/rx_files/environment/environment1839.pdf
• P.E.I.http://pei.cbc.ca/regional/servlet/View?filename=pe_windhydrogen20040114
• Nunavut• Newfoundland
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land • Good sites near load:
– Southern Alberta – Prairies– Gulf of St. Lawrence coasts
• (Hydro Quebec’s Le Nordais)– Locally in Maritimes
• (PEI’s North Cape)• PEI already 5% from Wind• Aiming for much more• Trial “hydrogen village”
– S.W. Ontario– Ocean coasts
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots on Land
• Many of the best wind sites are remote:– Labrador– N. Quebec– Ontario North Shore
• James Bay / Hudson’s Bay
Canadian Wind Hot-Spots: Off-Shore
• Ocean coasts– most extreme
conditions for siting
• Hudson's Bay• Gulf of St. Lawrence• Bay of Fundy• Great Lakes
– Tideless– less swell– close to load!
Canada's Wind Resource
Seasonal variations
winter peak - historically
summer peak - increasing
Wind geography: large-scale wind patterns; surface roughness, "fetch"
Best winds not always near load centres.
Raises the need to weigh transmission cost vs. yield.
Wind Generation Traits
• Wind resource varies (exogenous).
• Wind turbines produce no power at very low wind speeds (below “cut-in” speed) and run well below rated capacity at low-modest wind speeds.
• Here is a typical power curve for a contemporary 1MW unit:
Source: http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm
Wind Generation Traits, 2
• Wind patterns: frequency of occurrence of different wind speeds
• Characterized by Weibull distribution
• Curve reflects specifics of a given site
Source: http://www.blwtl.uwo.ca/climate/climate2.htm
Projecting Yield
• Combine Power Curve and site’s wind frequencies to give projected annual total yield 100%
0% -- overspeed cut-out
0-50%
50-100%
Integrating Wind in the Grid
• Network operators must incorporate wind power as a non-dispatchable resource.
• Wind forecasting software is a key area of development– Allow network operators to make best use of wind output– Incorporate forecast wind output into full network schedule– Costing methods pay the wind operator for correct forecasts
“ Labrador Wind Farm”(figures in CDN$ millions) 1 # turbines: 400 2,000 8,000 16,000
peak capacity 2.5 MWp 1,000 5,000 20,000 40,000
turbine purchase price $2.99 mil.Cdn. C$ 1,197 C$ 5,984 C$ 23,935 C$ 47,869
foundation construction $0.12 mil.Cdn. C$ 144 C$ 718 C$ 2,872 C$ 5,744
extra installation costs (climate) $0.05 mil.Cdn. C$ 7 C$ 36 C$ 144 C$ 287
Fixed costs C$ 50 C$ 50 C$ 50 C$ 50
total project completion cost C$ 1,398 C$ 6,788 C$ 27,000 C$ 53,951
finance cost, 20 [email protected]%; CRF= 11.35% mil.Cdn. C$ 159 C$ 770 C$ 3,064 C$ 6,122
O & M @ 2% of all capital 2% mil. Cdn. C$ 28 C$ 136 C$ 540 C$ 1,079
total annual cost of production mil. Cdn. C$ 187 C$ 906 C$ 3,604 C$ 7,201
annual yield on 700 Wm^-2 site 10 gWh 4,000 20,000 80,000
annual yield on 650 Wm^-2 site 9 gWh 144,000
Levelized cost before transmissn CAD/kWh $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
share of Cdn coal-fire generation 100,000 gWh 3.50% 17.40% 70% 125%
share of all Cdn. Demand 550,000 gWh 0.70% 3.60% 15% 26%