Canada’s Housing Market...Canada’s Housing Market May 15, 2020 BMO Capital Markets Economic...
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Canada’s Housing Market May 15, 2020 BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group For information, contact: Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist 416.359.5295 • [email protected]
Transcript of Canada’s Housing Market...Canada’s Housing Market May 15, 2020 BMO Capital Markets Economic...
Canada’s Housing MarketMay 15, 2020
BMO Capital MarketsEconomic ResearchDouglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group
For information, contact:Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist416.359.5295 • [email protected]
Contents
Summary
Scorecard
Demand
Demand Drivers
New Supply
New Unsold Supply
Resale Supply
Resale Market Balance
Prices
Valuation and Affordability
2
Summary
− National sales plunged 57% m/m in April and 58% y/y to the lowest level dating back to 1990, as a result of the distancing measures to contain COVID-19 and a sharp rise in unemployment. Nearly every region faced a sharp drop in demand
− While demand is expected to improve in the summer with support from low mortgage rates, elevated unemployment will suppress growth
− Sales in prior hot-spot Ottawa fell in line with the national average, but could outperform in the recovery given stability in government employment
− Benchmark prices fell 0.6% in the month, reducing the yearly rate to 6.4%. The decline was tempered by a sharp drop in new listings
+ Substantial fiscal income-support and mortgage deferral programs will help limit forced selling and downward pressure on prices
3
Housing Market Scorecard
Based on a house at the HPI benchmark price. 1 = Buyers’ market if sales/new listings ratio exceeds 0.5 standard deviations below normal; sellers’ market if exceeds 0.5 above normal 2 = 3 = Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual family income (about 10% today) 4 = average home price used 5 = Montreal data are n.s.a., 12-mth m.a.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, CREA, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
(as of April 2020)
(monthly : as of April 2020) (partial quarter : Apr. 2020)
Average Existing Sales vs. Sales vs. Market Price vs. MortgagePrices Sales 10-year Average New Listings Balance 1 Family Income 2 Service Costs 3
(n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (s.a. : 3-mth m.a.5 (n.s.a. : ratio to (n.s.a. : % of: y/y % chng) : % chng from avg.) : %) annual family income) family income)
Canada 8.7 -13.9 -16.4 63.9 Sellers’ 5.3 26 Vancouver 1.6 14.9 -30.5 53.6 Balanced 11.1 58 Victoria 4.4 -17.5 -23.7 57.5 Balanced 7.0 35 Calgary -1.1 -22.3 -34.7 57.2 Balanced 3.8 18 Edmonton4 -2.9 -22.5 -25.2 51.2 Buyers’ 3.3 15 Regina -4.8 -20.8 -21.6 52.7 Buyers’ 2.4 10 Saskatoon 0.5 -15.0 -20.4 48.3 Balanced 2.8 12 Winnipeg4 -0.7 -9.0 -7.9 60.0 Balanced 3.4 16 Toronto 10.5 -14.2 -20.7 57.1 Balanced 9.8 51 Ottawa 15.3 -21.4 -5.0 83.4 Sellers’ 4.1 20 Halifax4 5.6 -9.5 8.6 93.9 Sellers’ 3.4 16
Median family income is estimated after 2017 using average annual growth in previous 10 years
4
Demand
− National sales fell 57% in April to record lows
− Toronto’s sales plunged 66% in the month, followed by a 64% drop in Montreal, while Ottawa’s sales were down 52%
− Buyers may wait on the sidelines until the virus is under control and the economy begins to recover in the second half of the year. Sales are unlikely to return to pre-virus levels for some time. For 2020, we expect existing home sales to fall 20%, before rebounding 15% in 2021
− Oil-producing regions are expected to see even weaker sales due to very low oil prices
5
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
88 98 08 1815
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
88 98 08 18
(000s of units : s.a.)
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales
Canada
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 100 = mean)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
10-yearmean
(monthly : as of April 2020)
+1 SD
-1SD
6
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
88 98 08 181
2
3
4
5
88 98 08 18
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
Existing Home Sales
Vancouver
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Vancouver
National
(monthly : as of April 2020)
+1 SD
-1SD
7
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Victoria
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Victoria
National
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
8
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
88 98 08 180.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Calgary
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Calgary
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
9
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Edmonton
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Edmonton
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD National
10
50
70
90
110
130
150
88 98 08 180.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Regina
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Regina
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
11
50
75
100
125
150
175
88 98 08 180.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Saskatoon
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
10-yearmean
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Saskatoon
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
12
(monthly : as of April 2020)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
88 98 08 180.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Winnipeg
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Winnipeg
10-yearmean
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
13
50
75
100
125
150
88 98 08 180.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Hamilton
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Hamilton
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
14
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
88 98 08 182
4
6
8
10
12
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Toronto
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Toronto
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
15
(quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)
0
5
10
15
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(thousands of units)
New Condominium Sales
Toronto
mean
Source: Urbanation Inc.
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
18 19 20
(y/y % chng)
16
(quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)
0
2
4
6
8
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(thousands of units)
Existing Condominium Sales
Toronto
Source: Urbanation Inc.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
18 19 20
(y/y % chng)
mean
17
0
1
2
3
4
5
01 06 11 16-100
0
100
200
300
18 19 20
New Home Sales
Toronto
Source: Altus Group
(000s of units : 3-mth m.a.)
High Rises
Low Rises
(3-mth m.a. : y/y % chng)
Low Rises
(monthly : as of March 2020)
High Rises
18
40
60
80
100
120
140
88 98 08 180.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Ottawa
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Ottawa
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)+1 SD
-1SD
National
19
(monthly : as of April 2020)
80
90
100
110
120
03 08 13 183.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
03 08 13 18
Existing Home Sales
Montreal
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Montreal
(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
20
(monthly : as of April 2020)
80
90
100
110
120
130
03 08 13 180.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
03 08 13 18
Existing Home Sales
Quebec City
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Quebec City
(000s of units : n.s.a.: 12-mth m.a.)
10-yearmean
(units per 1,000 people 1: n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD National
21
60
80
100
120
140
160
88 98 08 180.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Halifax
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
Halifax
10-year mean
(monthly : as of April 2020)
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
22
(monthly : as of April 2020)
0
50
100
150
200
88 98 08 180.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
88 98 08 18
Existing Home Sales
Newfoundland & Labrador
1 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
17 18 19 20
(3-mth m.a. : n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
NL
10-year mean
(000s of units : s.a.: 3-mth m.a.)
(units per 1,000 people 1: s.a. : 3-mth m.a. :
100 = mean)
+1 SD
-1SD
National
23
Demand Drivers
+ Prime-age 30-34 olds growing faster than population
+ Record immigration driving household formation
+ 2019 Federal budget measures: interest-free govt. loan and higher tax-free RRSP withdrawal limit
+ Lower mortgage rates
+ Mortgage growth turning up
− Plunging employment
− Little pent-up demand
− Poor affordability in Vancouver and Toronto
− Tougher mortgage rules (Jan. 2018)
− Sales tax on foreign buyers in parts of BC and ON
24
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Employment
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
− Plunging jobsCanada (monthly : y/y % chng : as of April 2020)
25
100
200
300
400
500
10 12 14 16 180.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
10 12 14 16 18 20
Demand Drivers
+ Population driven by immigrationCanada
Population(quarterly : y/y % chng :
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Net International Migration(quarterly : 000s : 4-qtr m.s. :
as of 2020:Q1) as of 2019:Q4)
26
(rhs : 4-qtr m.s. : as of 2019:Q4)(lhs : s.a. : ann. : as of 2020:Q1) (lhs : ann. avg. of 5-yr chng in Census number of households : to 2016)
100
200
300
400
500
80
120
160
200
240
280
80 90 00 10 20
Canada (quarterly : 000s)
1 2 3
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Haver Analytics
HousingStarts 1
Demand Drivers
Household Formation
HouseholdFormation 2
Net InternationalImmigration 3
estimate 200k-210k
27
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17
Population – Age 25 to 34
Demand Drivers
+ More potential first-time buyersCanada
1 Statistics Canada Scenario M3, medium-growth, historical trends (1999/2000-2002/2003)Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
projection 1
(annual : y/y % chng : as of 2019)
28
25.7
26.8
27.6
28.2
25
26
27
28
29
2001 2006 2011 2016
Canada
Single-Person Households
Demand Drivers
+ More single-person households
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(annual : % of total households : as of 2016)
29
63.8
73.8
40
50
60
70
80
90 95 00 05 10 15 20
(quarterly : percent)
Owner’s Equity as a Percent of Real Estate
1 2
Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics
Canada 1
UnitedStates 2
Demand Drivers
+ Equity for second-home purchases
(as of 2019:Q4) (as of 2019:Q4)
30
3
4
5
6
7
8
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Demand Drivers
+ Lower mortgage ratesCanada
3-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
(monthly : percent : as of April 2020)
31
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Canada
Residential Mortgages
Sources: Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
+ Mortgage growth picks up(monthly : y/y % chng : as of March 2020)
32
Demand Drivers
− Tougher mortgage rules (despite recent easing)
2010/12: Insured mortgage no longer available for: Terms longer than 25 years Homes priced above $1 million If housing costs exceed 39% of gross income
Eff. Feb. 15/2016: Minimum down payment rises from 5% to 10% on portion of home price above $500k; higher capital requirements for lenders; higher fees on government-backed mortgages. Eff. Oct/Nov 2016: higher qualifying rate on 5-year
and longer fixed rate mortgages; new rules apply to portfolio-insured mortgages; closed tax loophole on sales of “principal” residences Eff. Jan 2018: higher qualifying rate on uninsured
mortgages; restrictions on bundled loans
33
1.32
1.62
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18
(quarterly : ratio to personal disposable income)
Household Debt 1
1 includes household and unincorporated business debt 2 Uses the Bank of Canada’s comparable-to-the-U.S. measure; 3Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
Demand Drivers
− Elevated but steadier household debt
Canada 2
UnitedStates 3
(as of 2019:Q4) (as of 2019:Q4)
34
65.3
67.8
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
(quarterly : percent)
Homeownership Rate
1 2
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada, BMO Capital Market Economics estimate
Demand Drivers
− Little pent-up demand
Canada 2
UnitedStates 1
(as of 2016)(n.s.a. : as of 2020:Q1)
35
New Supply
− Housing starts are expected to decline this year, but will recover as restrictions on construction ease
− The major setback in new home construction could put some upward pressure on house prices, but this is more of a threat next year when demand turns stronger
36
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
-20
0
20
40
60
10 15 20100
150
200
250
90 00 10 20
Housing Starts
Canada
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
4
6
8
10
12
90 00 10 20
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
+1 SD
-1 SD
mean
37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90 00 10 20
Housing Starts
Vancouver
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household FormationRate 1
0
5
10
15
20
90 00 10 20
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-50
0
50
100
150
10 15 20
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Vancouver
National
mean
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
+1 SD
-1 SD
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Housing Construction
Vancouver
Housing Units under Construction
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
(monthly : 000s : as of March 2020)
39
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10 20
Housing Starts
Calgary
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation
Rate 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10 20
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-50
0
50
100
150
10 15 20
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Calgary
Nationalmean +1
SD
-1 SD
40
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
5
10
15
20
25
90 00 10 20
Housing Starts
Edmonton
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation
Rate 1
0
5
10
15
20
90 00 10 20
(starts per 1,000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-100
0
100
200
300
10 15 20
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
Edmonton
National
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
41
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
2
4
6
8
90 00 10 200
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10 20-50
0
50
100
150
10 15 20
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Winnipeg
Household Formation Rate 1
Winnipegmean
+1 SD
-1 SD National
42
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
1
2
3
4
5
6
90 00 10 200
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
10 15 20
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Hamilton
Household Formation Rate 1
Hamilton
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
National
43
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
10
20
30
40
50
60
90 00 10 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
10 15 20
(starts per 1000 people 2: 6-mth m.a.)
(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Housing Starts
Toronto
Household Formation Rate 1 Toronto
National
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
44
(monthly : 000s : as of March 2020)
0
20
40
60
80
72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Housing Construction
Toronto
Housing Units under Construction
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 95 00 05 10 15 200
10
20
30
90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Housing Starts: Singles versus Non-detached
Toronto
Singles
1 annual average change from prior censusSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Non-detached
Household Formation
Rate 1
Household Formation Rate 1
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : annualized : as of March 2020)
46
0
100
200
300
400
500
03 08 13 180
2
4
6
8
10
08 13 180
20
40
60
80
04 09 14 19
Condominium Construction
Toronto
Starts
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Units under Construction
Proposed/ Potential Units
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)
2020:Q1 = -19.5% y/y
mean2020:Q1 = 6.0% y/y
mean
2019:Q4 = 31.7% y/y
mean
47
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
10 15 20
Housing Starts
Ottawa
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation
Rate 1
mean National+1 SD
-1 SD Ottawa
48
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90 00 10 202
4
6
8
10
12
90 00 10 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
10 15 20
Housing Starts
Montreal
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
mean
Montreal
National
+1 SD
-1 SD
49
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 00 10 202468
1012141618
90 00 10 20-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
10 15 20
Housing Starts
Quebec City
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
Household Formation Rate 1
mean
QuebecCity
National+1 SD
-1 SD
50
(monthly : s.a.a.r. : as of April 2020)
0
1
2
3
4
5
90 00 10 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
90 00 10 20-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
10 15 20
Housing Starts
Halifax
(starts per 1,000 people 2
: 6-mth m.a.)(6-mth m.a. :y/y % chng)
1 annual average change from prior census 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviationSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
(000s of starts: 6-mth m.a.)
HouseholdFormation Rate 1
mean
Halifax
National
+1 SD
-1 SD
51
New Home Inventories
+ Inventories were normal on a per-capita basis
+ GVA and GTA detached and condo inventories were low prior to the pandemic, which will temper downward pressure on prices stemming from the drop in demand
+ Ottawa’s condo inventories were also low prior to the shock
− Condo inventory was high in Edmonton and Calgary even before the pandemic and oil shock
52
68
10121416182022
92 02 120.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 122
4
6
8
10
12
14
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
CanadaNew Housing Units 1
thousands
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
Detached
Multiples
Detached
Multiples
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
Detachedmean
Multiplesmean
mean
+1 SD
-1 SD
53
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
5
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
VancouverNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
mean
54
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
CalgaryNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
mean
Detached
MultiplesMulti.MultI. mean
DetachedmeanDetached
+1 SD
-1 SD
55
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
EdmontonNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0
1
2
3
4
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
92 02 12
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi.mean
Detached mean
Det.
+1 SD
-1 SD
56
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
New Home Inventories
WinnipegNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
57
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
HamiltonNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
92 02 12
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
58
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
TorontoNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multiples mean
Detachedmean
Detached+1 SD
-1 SD
59
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 05 10 15 200
5
10
15
20
25
00 05 10 15 20
Remaining Inventory 1
1 includes all unsold units under construction, pre-construction, and completedSource: Altus Group
New Home Inventories
Toronto
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
00 05 10 15 20
Total Low Rises High Rises
(monthly : 000s of units : as of March 2020)
mean
mean
mean
60
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
New Condominium Inventories
Toronto
Unsold Inventory of New Condos
Source: Urbanation Inc.
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)
2020:Q1 = -1.3% y/y
mean
61
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
New Condominium Vacancy Rate
Toronto
Unsold Inventory as a Share of Total Active Units
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)
62
0
5
10
15
20
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
New Condominium Quarterly Supply
Toronto
Unsold Inventory as a Share of Sales 1
1 quarters required to sell inventory at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : ratio : as of 2020:Q1)
63
0
50
100
150
200
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
New Condominium Sales-to-Supply Ratio
Toronto
mean
Sales as a Share of Supply 1
1 supply is approximately unsold inventory plus salesSource: Urbanation Inc.
(quarterly : percent : as of 2020:Q1)
64
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
OttawaNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 12
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
mean
Detached
Multiples Multiples
Multi. mean
Detachedmean
Det.+1 SD
-1 SD
65
0
1
2
3
4
5
92 02 120.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
92 02 120
1
2
3
4
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
MontrealNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
mean
Detached
MultiplesMultiples
Multi.mean
Detachedmean
Detached
+1 SD
-1 SD
66
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
92 02 120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
Quebec CityNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi.mean
Detachedmean
Det.
+1 SD
-1 SD
67
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of March 2020)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
92 02 120.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
92 02 12
New Home Inventories
HalifaxNew Housing Units 1
1 completed and unabsorbed 2 age 15 and above SD = standard deviation Multiples = semi-detached, row, apartment and other unitsSources: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
thousands per 1,000 people 2 thousands per 1,000 people 2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
92 02 120.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
92 02 12
mean
Detached
Multiples
Multiples
Multi. mean
Detachedmean
Det.+1 SD
-1 SD
68
Resale Supply
+ New listings have fallen nearly as much as demand, alleviating downward pressure on prices
+ Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa listings are very low
+ Winnipeg, Quebec City new listings were elevated, but have fallen to more normal levels
69
40
50
60
70
80
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Canada
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
70
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Vancouver
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
71
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Calgary
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
72
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
1
2
3
4
5
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Edmonton
10-year mean
73
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Winnipeg
10-year mean
74
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Hamilton
10-year mean
75
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Toronto
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
76
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2020:Q1 = -1.2% y/y
mean
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Total Listings of Resale Condos
Existing Condominium Listings
Toronto(quarterly : 000s of units : as of 2020:Q1)
77
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Ottawa
10-year mean
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
78
3
4
5
6
7
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Montreal
10-yearmean
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
79
(monthly : 000s of units : n.s.a. : 12-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Quebec City
10-yearmean
80
(monthly : 000s of units : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20
New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Resale Home Supply
Halifax
10-year mean
81
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
87 92 97 02 07 12 17 22
Resale Home SupplyVery Few Distressed Properties on the Market in Canada
(percent)
1 2 3 (US / Canada)Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association
90-Day+ Mortgage Delinquency Rate
United States
(lhs) 2
Canada(lhs) 1
(monthly : as of December 2019) (quarterly : as of 2020:Q1)
Ratio(rhs) 3
82
Resale Market Balance
+ National market was tight before the pandemic, but the active supply of homes has turned sharply higher to 9.2 months. It should fall sharply when demand recovers
+ Sales/new listings ratio of 62.4% is still well above the long-run norm (54%), which would normally indicate a sellers’ market. However, this measure has lost some meaning in the current “frozen” market
+ Before the virus, Toronto, Ottawa, Halifax, Montreal, and Hamilton were sellers’ markets
− Edmonton and Calgary remain buyers’ markets
83
2
4
6
8
10
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Months’ Supply
Canada
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
84
0
5
10
15
20
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
British Columbia
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
85
0
5
10
15
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
Alberta
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
86
0
4
8
12
16
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
Saskatchewan
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
87
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
Manitoba
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
88
0
2
4
6
8
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
Ontario
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
89
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Months’ Supply
Quebec
Active Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
(monthly : s.a. : as of April 2020)
buyers’ market+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation sellers’ market
90
0
5
10
15
20
04 09 14 190
5
10
15
20
25
04 09 14 190
5
10
15
20
04 09 14 194
6
8
10
12
14
16
04 09 14 19
Months’ Supply
The Atlantic ProvincesActive Listings as Ratio of Existing Home Sales
SD = standard deviationSource: Canadian Real Estate Association
New Brunswick
(mon. : s.a. : as of Apr ’20)
Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland& Labrador
mean
buyers’market+1 SD
-1 SD sellers’market
91
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Sales-to-New Listings
Canada
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
mean
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
92
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Sales-to-New Listings
Vancouver
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation
buyers’ market
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
93
Sales-to-New Listings
Calgary
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
94
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
Sales-to-New Listings
Edmonton
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
95
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
Sales-to-New Listings
Winnipeg
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
96
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
Sales-to-New Listings
Hamilton
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
15
30
45
60
75
90
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
97
Sales-to-New Listings
Toronto
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
mean sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
98
0
1
2
3
4
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Resale Condominium Quarterly Supply
Toronto
1 quarters required to sell listed units at current sales rateSource: Urbanation Inc.
Listed Units as a Share of Sales 1
mean
(quarterly : ratio : as of 2020:Q1)
99
Sales-to-New Listings
Ottawa
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
100
Sales-to-New Listings
Montreal
Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
25
50
75
100
125
150
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
-0.5 × SD buyers’ market
101
(monthly : n.s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
Sales-to-New Listings
Quebec City
Source: Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
25
50
75
100
125
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
mean
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard
deviation
-0.5 × SD buyers’ market
102
(monthly : s.a. : 3-mth m.a. : as of April 2020)
Sales-to-New Listings
Halifax
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
Existing Home Sales as a % of New Listings
20
40
60
80
100
120
88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16 20
mean
-0.5 × standard deviation buyers’ market
sellers’ market+0.5 × standard deviation
103
0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.90.3 0.6 0.3 0.3
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Vancouver(percent)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
Apartments 1
(as of October 2019) (as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
104
5.7
2.11.0 1.1
4.94.4
3.82.7
0.9
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Calgary(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
105
(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
3.7
2.5
1.1
2.3
5.3
6.8 6.9
4.2
2.5
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Edmonton(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
106
1.81.3 1.5
2.61.8
2.8 2.9
1.6
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 16 17 18 191 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Winnipeg condo rental data for October 2015 is not available.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2019)
Rental Vacancy Rates
Winnipeg(percent)
Apartments 1
(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
107
(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
(as of October 2019)
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.90.2
0
2
4
6
8
15 16 17 18 191 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Hamilton condo rental data begins in October 2015.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Hamilton(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
108
1.1 1.21.8
1.31.8
1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Toronto(percent)
Apartments 1
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
109
0
2
4
6
8
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Resale Condominium Vacancy Rate
Toronto
Listed Units as a Share of Total Units
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
(quarterly : percent : as of 2020:Q1)
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Resale Condominium Sales-to-Listings Ratio
Toronto
Source: Urbanation Inc.
mean
Sales as a Share of Listed Units
(quarterly : percent : as of 2020:Q1)
111
1.4
3.2 3.6
1.72.6
1.1
2.93.4
0.9
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Ottawa(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
112
2.8 2.7 2.73.4 3.0 3.1
1.8 1.9 1.8
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18(as of October 2019)
Rental Vacancy Rates
Montreal(percent)
Apartments 1
(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
113
(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
2.3 2.2
5.9
3.24.0
4.83.9
2.51.4
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 191 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
Rental Vacancy Rates
Quebec City(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
114
(as of October 2019)(as of October 2019)
(annual through 2013, then semiannual)
1 2
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics Note: Halifax condo rental data begins in October 2016.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8
0
2
4
6
8
16 17 18 19
Rental Vacancy Rates
Halifax(percent)
Apartments 1 Condominium Rentals 2
(October of given year)
115
Prices
− Prices were rising in most regions prior to the pandemic, but fell 0.6% in April. The national benchmark is up 6.4% y/y. We expect prices to decline moderately in coming months due to the sharp decline in sales. Fewer listings and government income-support measures will provide some offsetting support
+ Toronto’s prices were up 10.2% in April, while Ottawa was up 15.4%
+ Vancouver’s prices rose 2.5 % y/y
− Prices in the oil-producing regions were down from a year ago, and are likely to weaken further in coming months
116
(as of April 2020)
-10
0
10
20
30
06 11 1650
100
150
200
250
05 10 15 201 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association(as of March 2020)
Prices
Canada(monthly)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
117
Prices
Vancouver
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15 20-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 16(as of April 2020) (as of March 2020)
118
-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16
Prices
Calgary
-20
0
20
40
60
80
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
05 10 15 20(as of April 2020) (as of March 2020)
119
(as of April 2020)1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
05 10 15 20-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16(as of March 2020)
-20
0
20
40
60
88 98 08 18
Prices
Edmonton
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
120
Prices
Regina
-10
0
10
20
30
40
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15 20-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 11 16(as of April 2020) (as of March 2020)
121
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18-5
0
5
10
15
20
05 10 15 20(as of March 2020)1 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
05 10 15 20(as of March 2020)
Prices
Winnipeg
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
122
(as of March 2020)(as of March 2020)
-505
1015202530
05 10 15 201 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
Prices
Hamilton
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
123
Prices
Toronto
-40
-20
0
20
40
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
50
100
150
200
250
300
05 10 15 20-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 16(as of April 2020) (as of March 2020)
124
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Existing Single Family Home Prices
TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Single Family
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)
(monthly : as of April 2020)
125
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Existing Condominium Prices
TorontoHome Price Index Benchmark – Existing Condominiums
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
0
200
400
600
800
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
(C$ 000s : n.s.a.) (y/y % chng)
(monthly : as of April 2020)
126
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
08 10 12 14 16 18 20
2020:Q1 = 8.8% y/y
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
New Condominium Prices
TorontoAverage Price per Square Foot
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Sold Unsold
(quarterly : C$ : as of 2020:Q1)
2020:Q1 = 10.6% y/y
127
(quarterly : C$ : as of 2020:Q1)
2020:Q1 = 8.1% y/y
0
200
400
600
800
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Resale Condominium Prices
TorontoAverage PSF
Source: Urbanation Inc.
128
(as of March 2020)(as of April 2020)
Prices
Ottawa
-5
0
5
10
15
20
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(January 2005 = 100)
MLS HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
100
125
150
175
200
225
05 10 15 20-5
0
5
10
15
20
06 11 16
129
(as of March 2020)(as of March 2020)1 2
Sources: Teranet/National Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
05 10 15 2080
100
120
140
160
180
05 10 15 20-5
0
5
10
15
88 98 08 18
Prices
Halifax
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(June 2005 = 100)
Teranet HomePrice Index 1
(y/y % chng)
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
(monthly)
130
(as of April 2020) (as of March 2020)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
06 11 1650
100
150
200
250
05 10 15 20
Prices
Newfoundland & Labrador
-10
0
10
20
30
88 98 08 18
New HomePrice Index 2
(y/y % chng)
1 2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
AverageHome Price 1
(s.a. : January 2005 = 100)
AverageHome Price 1
(n.s.a. : y/y % chng)
(monthly)
131
Valuation and Affordability
+ Valuations and affordability were healthy in most regions, and some expected weakness in prices and low interest rates should provide further support
+ National prices between 3-to-4 times income outside Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria; normal
+ Outside Vancouver and Toronto, typical mortgage payment consumes less than one-fifth of median household income
− Vancouver and Toronto detached markets are well out-of-reach of typical family. But affordability was improving in Vancouver due to lower prices
− Toronto condo market becoming less affordable, offset by some improvement in detached segment
132
(as of 2020:Q1 [estimate] )(as of 2020:Q1)
Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, CREA, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
33%
13%7%
19%
-25
0
25
50
88 93 98 03 08 13 181 Ratio of average existing home price to per-capita personal income (adjusted to make it more comparable to U.S. income; as a sum of household income, property
income and current transfers received, then divided by population age 15+), relative to long-term average;2 Ratio of median existing single-family house price to median family income, relative to long-term average;
(quarterly : ratio : s.a.)
House Price-to-Income Ratio relative to long-term Average
Valuation
Canada
overvalued
undervalued
UnitedStates 2
Canada 1
133
2001 2005 2019 2020 % chg since 2005Q4 Q1 Q2 Apr. Trend 2 Price
Vancouver 5.3 6.6 11.1 11.1 164 Toronto 4.2 5.0 9.2 9.8 149 Victoria 3.8 4.7 6.9 7.0 100 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 2.7 3.3 4.4 4.3 98 Ottawa 2.5 2.8 3.7 4.1 95 Calgary 2.8 3.0 4.0 3.8 68 Halifax ³ 2.5 2.8 3.5 3.4 80 Winnipeg ³ 1.7 2.1 3.5 3.4 147 Saskatoon 2.1 2.1 2.9 2.8 144
(quarterly)
Price-to-Median Family Income Ratios 1
1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years (for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004) 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±0.1) 3 = average home price used onlySources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association
Valuation
Regional
2017
134
39%
30%27%
34%
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
88 93 98 03 08 13 18
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2020:Q1)
Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, average-priced house, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today). Household income measured as personal income per labour force member. 2020:Q1 = estimateSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Canada
meanIf R2 ppt
135
Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today) for a house of average home price in 2004 or earlier, and HPI benchmark price after 2004 1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = average home price used only 3 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1) 4 = weighted average house price used onlyShading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, FCIQ, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
2017
Apr. Apr.2001:Q4 2005:Q1 2019:Q2 2020 Trend 3 2020
Mortgage Rate 5.9% 4.9% 3.0% 2.6% If 4.6%Vancouver 37 42 60 58 71 Toronto 28 31 49 51 62 Victoria 25 29 36 35 44 Hamilton ² 17 20 32 31 39 Canada ex Vancouver, Toronto 17 19 22 21 25 Ottawa 15 16 18 20 24 Calgary 17 17 20 18 22 Halifax ² 15 16 17 16 20 Winnipeg ² 9 11 17 16 20 Edmonton 14 13 14 13 16 Saskatoon 12 11 14 12 15
Affordability
RegionalMortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1 (quarterly)
136
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2020:Q1)
57%
70%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Vancouver
mean
If R2 ppt
2017
137
37%
49%
61%
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, down payment equal to half of annual income (about 10% today) on a house of average price (before 2005) or benchmark price (2005 onwards). Median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years. Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
2017
(quarterly : % of household income : as of 2020:Q1)
Average Mortgage Payments
Affordability
Toronto
mean
If R2 ppt
138
Apr. Apr.2005:Q1 2019:Q2 2020 Trend 2 2020
Mortgage Rate 4.9% 3.0% 2.6% If 4.6%
Vancouver – Single Family 61 86 83 102
Vancouver – Single Family 1-Storey 48 68 66 81
Toronto – Single Family 35 55 56 69
Toronto – Single Family 1-Storey 31 48 49 61
Vancouver – Condo 26 38 37 46
Toronto – Condo 19 32 34 42
Affordability
Vancouver and Toronto
Mortgage Payments as a % of Median Family Income 1
Worth noting is that the median income of families owning detached properties is well above that of the median income of all households, according to the 2011 National Household Survey, suggesting that the detached market is more affordable than implied by our measure.Based on 25-year amortization, 5-year fixed rate with assumption about discount versus posted rate, benchmark house price, down payment equal to half of annual income 1 (about 10% today); MLS benchmark home price used after 2004, average price used otherwise.1 = median family income is estimated after using average annual growth in previous 10 years 2 = based on y/y change of latest quarter (flat if < ±1)Shading denotes that housing costs consume more than 39% of income, assuming that 8% of income is needed to pay for property taxes, heating and condo fees. After July 2012, banks generally cannot provide an insured mortgage to potential buyers who breach this threshold.Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Canadian Real Estate Association, BMO Capital Markets Economics estimates
(quarterly)
2017
139
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To PRC Residents: This material does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any financial products in the People’s Republic of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, the “PRC”). BMO and its affiliates do not represent that this material may be lawfully distributed, or that any financial products may be lawfully offered, in compliance with any applicable registration or other requirements in the PRC, or pursuant to an exemption available thereunder, or assume any responsibility for facilitating any such distribution or offering. 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If you are not an accredited investor, please disregard this report. BMO Singapore Branch does not accept legal responsibility for the contents of the report. In Asia, Bank of Montreal is licensed to conduct banking and financial services in Hong Kong and Singapore. Certain products and services referred to in this document are designed specifically for certain categories of investors in a number of different countries and regions. Such products and services would only be offered to these investors in those countries and regions in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. The Information is directed only at persons in jurisdictions where access to and use of such information is lawful.To Thai Residents: The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of persons qualified as Institutional Investors according to Notification of the Securities and Exchange Commission No. GorKor. 11/2547 Re: Characteristics of Advice which are not deemed as Conducting Derivatives Advisory Services dated 23 January 2004 (as amended). 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