CANADA WEST TELECOM GROUP Report on PTC Hawaii Pacific Telecom Council’s Annual Conference January...
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Transcript of CANADA WEST TELECOM GROUP Report on PTC Hawaii Pacific Telecom Council’s Annual Conference January...
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Report on PTC Hawaii
Pacific Telecom Council’s Annual Conference January 18-23, 2003
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
PTC Hawaii• 25th annual conference in Hawaii (www.ptc.org). • PTC brings together operators from different regions of
Asia-Pacific to share their experiences• PTC has evolved to include traditional and convergent
telecom technologies, industries and markets. • The annual conference also hosts associated events on
– China Telecom– Pan Pacific Distance Learning– Pacific Island Telecommunications– Pacific TeleHealth
• CWTG members Telos Technologies and Daniels Electronics participated in the show and Convedia, fSona and Norsat sent product brochures for distribution at the CWTG booth.
CANADA WEST
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GROUP
Conference Hob-Nobbing
Ind. Cda. Bruce Drake & Dave Fransen S,R&D Minister Rey Pagtakhan
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Conference Topics
• How to Successfully Deploy Telecom/ Broadband Access– China as the success model
– Regulatory, legal, IP issues
• Distance Learning Case Studies– N.B. MIT OpenCourseWare
• Mitigating Business Risk in Dangerous Times– Bandwidth Economics & Project Financing
• Satellite & Submarine Cable systems
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Conference Highlights
• Telecom demand still growing at 7-8% per year
• Internet still adding 5M+ subs per year• May have to work off an ~10 year Telecom
‘overhang’ (over capacity)• Think of Long Distance as free
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How Telecom Is Becoming A Cyclical Industry
Eli M. Noami, Columbia University, USA - Opening Plenary • Cyclicality will be an inherent part of the telecom
sector in the future– not a one-time recovery from a one-time boom and bust
• To deal with such instabilities, companies and investors will seek consolidation and cooperation
• Oligopoly is likely to be the equilibrium market structure– Government, will need to reassess its basic policy
approach that has long been focused on the enabling of competition
• The future network industry will look a lot more like the old telecom industry and less like the new internet
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Drivers of Cyclicality• Demand growth has slowed.• Investment and regulatory lags prevented
adjustment. • Network externalities and lumpiness in
investments amplified the swings. • Economies of scale and network externalities
created strong incentives for growth strategies, at the expense of profitability. Financial markets encouraged this strategy. Managers benefited from it in the short run.
• While expansion made sense for each firm individually, it created a major oversupply in the aggregate.
CANADA WEST
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Economies of Scale
Capacity Over-Build
CANADA WEST
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Future Project Finance StructuresRobert W. Stuart, InDepth Financial Advisors LLC, USA
• Project Financiers will look for simplest financing stories, easily understood both in credit approval and syndication process. – e.g. single project builds serving the well-documented needs
of a finite marketplace– with Management “A Teams”
• Regional aggregation or feeder systems will be financed first (when the financial markets again become receptive)
• Bankers may restrict additional borrowings even those structurally subordinated to its own senior secured debt– Only fully funded Business Plans will be secure project debt
funding;
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GROUP
Heterogeneous Mobile Networks: Getting a WIFI of 3G
Peter Waters, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaBernadette Jew and Rob Nicholls, Australia
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Conference ReportsConference Papers can be viewed/downloaded from www.ptc.org,
user=ptc25, p/w=broadband Reports picked up at the Conference:• CD - The APT (Asia-Pacific Telecommunity) Yearbook 2002• Newsletter - AsiaCom, Dec 2002 - including Asia Broadband
Subscriber Counts• Magazine - Pacific 2003 Alamanac: Global Broadband, Regional
Divides• Journal PTR - Pacific Telecommunications Report, Q1 2002• Journal PTR - Pacific Telecommunications Report, Q4 2002• Workshop Handouts - Paul Weis: Asia's Telecommunications
Markets (Finance outlooks)• Journal - Preston Gates Guide to Telecommunications in Asia (Legal
summary of national markets)• Workshop Handouts - Gilbert & Tobin: IT & Communications
(WiFi, China CATV, Interconnect)• Magazine - Outside Plant, Dec 2002
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TELECOM
GROUP
Purchased IEC Reports• CD Web Proforum Tutorials Vol. 9, on ATM,
Broadband Access, Optical Networking, SS7, Wireless • CD/HC Annual Review of Communications, Vol 55, 2002• CD/HC Telecom Outlook Report - Executive Analysis• HC only Telecom Outlook Report: Millennial Edition• CD/HC Telecom Outlook Report on Wireless• CD The New Satellite Industry• CD/HC IP Applications & Services 2003• CD/HC IP and the Intelligent Network• CD/HC The Business of Broadband: Access & Applications• CD/HC Broadband Access and Services in the Local Loop• CD/HC Operations Support Systems 2002• HC only Knowledge Management for the
Telecommunications Industry
* Additional IEC Reports available at 50% of list price
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Trade Show• Conference Attendance was down ~20% from
last year; down 30% from peak in 2001– 1,800 in 2001 1,500 in 2002 1,200 in 2003
• Trade show participation down by similar factor
• Most significant change is reduced participation by larger vendors and carriers– smaller presence and delegations
• But exhibitors still reported making the senior-level contacts the conference is renown for
• PTC also has an aging membership problem
CANADA WEST
TELECOM
GROUP
Trade Show
Layout
CANADA WEST
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Booth Setup
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Business Results
• In general, there was stronger interest in products offering incremental expansion of, or new services on, existing networks, such as IP Telephony, than in new network builds.
• ~40 contacts, 6 leads (for Convedia)• As for the past year, vendors with business in
China reported good results.Also reports of smaller networks in emerging regions such as Africa and the Pacific.