CANADA Roxgold - Aktienkurse rate Estimated WACC of 12% Share issue price to finance project $1.00...

CANADA

Gold in a quartz vein at the 55 Zone deposit, Yaramoko.

ROG CN Outperform Price (at 19:58, 30 May 2013 GMT) C$0.50

Valuation C$ 1.68 - DCF (WACC 12.0%) 12-month target C$ 1.5012-month TSR % +200.0Volatility Index GICS sector MaterialsMarket cap C$m 7230-day avg turnover C$m 0.1Number shares on issue m 143.2

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA m -18.5 -11.1 -14.0 -14.0 Recurring profit m -18.9 -11.3 -14.2 -18.2 Reported profit m -18.9 -11.3 -14.2 -18.2 Gross cashflow m -6.2 -5.2 -6.0 -10.0 CFPS C$ -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.07 CFPS growth % nmf 28.7 -16.2 -66.7 EPS rec C$ -0.16 -0.08 -0.10 -0.13 EPS rec growth % nmf 48.8 -25.3 -28.2

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2013 (all figures in CAD unless noted)

3 June 2013 Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Roxgold High grade, high value Gold vein in Burkina Faso. We are initiating coverage of Roxgold Inc., which is

developing the Yaramoko gold project in Burkina Faso, West Africa. The 55 Zone deposit within the property is described as an orogenic gold deposit; it is a continuous gold-bearing quartz vein hosted mostly in a granitoid body. Yaramoko is located 30km south of SEMAFO’s Mana mine to the north, currently producing 160koz annually.

High-grade resource. The 55 Zone has an Indicated resource of 679koz grading 15.7g/t gold and an Inferred resource of 216koz grading 8.9g/t gold, for a combined total of 895koz. Management believes the 55 Zone reserve could reach at least 1m oz. The 55 Zone remains open down-plunge to the east and along strike to the west. Roxgold has identified a number of targets elsewhere on the Yaromoko property.

Positive economics. We have modeled an underground mine starting in 2017 with a 750tpd throughput and life-of-mine production of 1moz over 10 years based on a mill head grade of 11–15g/t. We have projected capex of $100m, and total cash costs ranging from $500–630/oz, or $185/t. Our mine scenario is based on an underground longhole operation with ramp development to a depth of 750m. The economics are attractive, as the project generates an IRR of 69% at our long-term forward gold price of $1,479/oz, for a NPV5% of $407m or an NPV12% of $238m. Management believes the mine could be financed by 50/50 debt/equity.

Conservative target price of $1.50. Our target price is based on a discount of 11% to the NAV12%, our estimate of an appropriate WACC for the project. We believe there is considerable upside to this target if the gold price improves or as the project advances and increases in size. Our valuation accords minimal value to the exploration potential of the property.

Key milestones ahead. Roxgold plans to release an updated resource and preliminary economic assessment (PEA) in 3Q13, which could lead to a feasibility study beginning in 2014, with completion of the projected by 2015, and production by 2017, if not sooner.

Enough cash, but will need to finance. Roxgold has a cash position of $13m with a burn rate of $1.5m/Mo, but management plans to cut back on spending to conserve cash once the drilling program is complete within the next month or so.

It’s all about the grade. We initiate coverage of Roxgold with an Outperform rating. The resource is modest and the gold vein is narrow, but the grade is very attractive and there is potential to add to mineralization. While we recognize that Roxgold is an exploration company with no operating experience, the scale of the mine plan is manageable. We also believe the deposit could make for an attractive acquisition target.

This report was prepared by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd and is being distributed by Macquarie Private Wealth Inc. Macquarie Private Wealth Inc and Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltdare separate affiliated corporate entities that are part of the Macquarie group of companies. Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on the inside back cover of this document.

Macquarie Research Roxgold

3 June 2013 2

Inside

Valuation 5

Roxgold 8

Appendix 1 – Management and Directors 26

Appendix 2 – Photos of Yaromoko rocks 29

High grade, high value Overview Roxgold Inc is a Toronto-based gold exploration company. The company’s key asset is the Yaramoko gold deposit in Burkina Faso, located 30km south of SEMAFO’s Mana mine. The property, which covers 167sq km, contains the 55 Zone deposit with an Indicated and Inferred resource of 895koz. Roxgold also has several other properties in Burkina Faso, which are largely inactive. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $1.50 price target, based on our net asset valuation for the company discounted at 12%. We believe Roxgold is well positioned to capitalize on the high-grade nature of the 55 Zone deposit and add value.

Fig 1 Location of Roxgold properties and other gold projects within Burkina Faso

Source: Roxgold, Macquarie Research, June 2013

Fig 2 ROG CN vs TSX

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2013

(all figures in CAD unless noted)


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Investment positives Small but high-grade deposit. Although the 55 Zone is small, it is one of the highest-grade

gold development deposits in the world. Development costs are expected to be modest, under $100m, resulting in favourable economics. Alternatively, the 55 Zone deposit could serve as an acquisition target or a high-grade satellite to the Mana mine, 30km away.

Positive economics. The high-grade nature of the deposit, particularly in the early years, will provide for strong returns and a rapid payback, even at low gold prices. The economics could be further enhanced as mineralization is extended down-plunge and the resource grows.

Roxgold has a capable management team and a strong board that could undertake the development of the 55 Zone or negotiate a sale of the company. We believe shareholders will be well served with this experience, regardless of which course the company pursues.

Investment negatives No operating experience. Roxgold’s history is as an exploration company, with no experience

as an operator. In this gold market, we expect that it will be a challenge, particularly in Burkina Faso, to build a team with experience for an underground mine.

Mineralization style may limit size potential and restrict buyer interest. For now, the 55 Zone deposit is limited to a narrow vein deposit of under 1m ounces. Given the deposit’s size and the current lack of identified resources elsewhere on the property, the potential to increase the scope of the mine could be limited and Roxgold may not be of sufficient size to attract buyer interest.

Difficult economic environment. In this economic climate, financing the development and construction of the 55 Zone deposit could be a challenge. If there is insufficient interest, management may have to take a much slower course of action until investors return to the junior gold sector. In the meantime, the stock could languish.


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Fig 3 Roxgold – Share price history

Source: Bloomberg, Roxgold, Macquarie Research, June 2013


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Valuation Our valuation for Roxgold is based on our model for an underground mine development at the 55 Zone deposit, with production of 1m oz for a mine starting production in 2017. Operating, cost and financing parameters are outlined in Fig 4 below, and are detailed in our section on 55 Zone project economics.

Our NAV is conservative, reflecting a significant discount. Based on the long-term forward curve gold price of $1,479/oz, our diluted NAV12% is $1.68/share, including a nominal value for property-wide potential and cash. Our diluted NAV12% accounts for mine financing of the $100m project based on a 50/50 debt/equity distribution. We have undertaken sensitivities at different gold prices, discount rates and share price dilution for financing to provide a range of potential values for the stock. Our target price of $1.50 is based on a discount of 11% to the NAV12%, our estimate of an appropriate WACC for the project, or the NAV15%. We believe there is considerable upside to this target in an improving gold price environment or as the project advances and increases in size.

Fig 4 Macquarie assumptions for the valuation of Roxgold

Source: Macquarie Research, June 2013

Roxgold interest in mine 90%Burkina Faso carried interest (after capital repayment) 10%Burkina Faso income tax 27%Burkina Faso royalty 5%

Production start date 2017Gold production, life of mine (moz) 1.0Average annual production 102 koz (120 koz in f irst 5 years, 89 koz for rest of mine life)Life of mine (yrs) 10Mine and mill throughput 750 tpd, 270k tpa

Construction capex (US$m) $100Sustaining capex* (US$mpa) $0 *(included in operating costs)Unit operating costs $185/t, or cash costs ranging from $500/oz in early years, increasing to $633/oz for rest of mine life

Debt/Equity 50/50 ($50m in debt, $50m in equity)Discount rate Estimated WACC of 12%Share issue price to f inance project $1.00 for issue of 50m shares


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Fig 5 Macquarie valuation of Roxgold at the forward gold price of $1,479/oz


Roxgold: undiluted NAV C$m55 Zone Mine NPV12% 214Additional ounces optionality 50Other properties 50Cash from the exercise of options 1Cash from the exercise of w arrants 0Working capital 13Debt 0Total undiluted NAV 328

Current shares outstanding (m) 143.1Additional shares from the exercise of options (m) 2.2Additional shares from the exercise of w arrants (m) 0.0Total fully diluted shares outstanding (m) 145.3

Undiluted NAV/sh C$ $2.26

Roxgold: diluted NAV C$m55 Zone Mine NPV12% 214Additional ounces optionality 50Other properties 50Cash from the exercise of options 1Cash from the exercise of w arrants 0Working capital 13Debt 0Total undiluted NAV 328

Cash from debt & equity f inancing 50Debt issued (50)Total diluted NAV 328

Total fully diluted shares outstanding (m) 145.3Shares issued at C$1.00/sh 50.0Total fully diluted shares outstanding (post f inancing) m 195.3

Diluted NAV/sh C$ $1.68


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Fig 6 Macquarie estimates for NAV sensitivities of Roxgold with equity financings of the 55 Zone mine at $1.00/sh, $0.75/sh and $0.50/sh


Diluted NAV per share (using share count post financing with shares issued at $1.00)

Forward Curve/Long-Term Price

NAV/sh $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,4790% $2.62 $2.91 $3.19 $3.425% $1.93 $2.12 $2.31 $2.468% $1.64 $1.80 $1.95 $2.07

10% $1.49 $1.62 $1.75 $1.8612% $1.36 $1.48 $1.59 $1.6815% $1.21 $1.30 $1.39 $1.46



NAV/sh $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,4790% $2.41 $2.68 $2.94 $3.155% $1.78 $1.95 $2.13 $2.278% $1.51 $1.65 $1.79 $1.90

10% $1.37 $1.49 $1.62 $1.7112% $1.26 $1.36 $1.46 $1.5515% $1.11 $1.20 $1.28 $1.35



NAV/sh $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,4790% $2.09 $2.31 $2.54 $2.725% $1.54 $1.69 $1.84 $1.968% $1.31 $1.43 $1.55 $1.64

10% $1.19 $1.29 $1.40 $1.4812% $1.09 $1.18 $1.27 $1.3415% $0.96 $1.03 $1.11 $1.16

Gold price ($/oz)

Disc. Rate

Disc. Rate

Disc. Rate

Gold price ($/oz)

Gold price ($/oz)


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Roxgold

The company Gold exploration and development in Burkina Faso. Roxgold is a gold exploration and development company with properties in Burkina Faso, West Africa. The company’s main property is the Yaramoko project, containing the 55 Zone deposit. In 2010, Roxgold entered into separate option agreements with Riverstone Resources to acquire a 60% interest in the Solna, Yaramoko and Bissa West properties in Burkina Faso, and in October it acquired the remaining interest in the properties. In September 2012, Roxgold announced a settlement agreement to terminate a proxy dispute on mutually agreeable terms. In accordance with the settlement agreement, a new board of directors and a new CEO were appointed. In November 2012, Roxgold announced that it curtailed the deep drilling program on the 55 Zone that had been undertaken by the previous management group. Instead, a step-out drill program was designed and implemented to define the 55 Zone down-plunge from 400 to 700 metres below surface.

Yaramoko property The Yaramoko property covers approximately 167sq km in the Province of Balé in southwestern Burkina Faso. The property is located approximately 200km southwest from the capital city of Ouagadougou. The property lies directly south of, and is contiguous to, the SEMAFO Inc. property hosting its flagship Mana Gold Mine. Previous operators carried out soil and rock geochemical surveys, trenching, geological mapping and airborne geophysical surveys on the Yaramoko property.

Permit status Exploration permit extended to 2016. The Yaramoko exploration permit entitles the holder to conduct exploration for gold on the Yaramoko property. Roxgold acquired the Yaramoko exploration permit from Riverstone, earning a 60% interest by fulfilling its obligations under an option agreement and then by purchasing the remaining 40% from Riverstone for cash and Roxgold shares. The current permit, now 100%-controlled by Roxgold, is valid until 8 Sept 2016.


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Fig 7 View of the Yaramoko property

Source: Roxgold, June 2013

Fig 8 Orpailleur pits at Yaramoko

Source: Roxgold, June 2013


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Geology Regional setting. The Yaramoko property is situated at the northern end of the Houndé Greenstone Belt, which is composed of a thick basal sequence of tholeiitic basalts, gabbros and related volcaniclastics. The property geology was originally interpreted from airborne geophysical data and has been updated with field surveys and results from rotary air blast drill campaigns. The succession of the geology on the Yaramoko exploration permit follows the same trends of the Houndé Greenstone belt. The Boni Shear Zone bisects the permit in a north south direction with Tarkwaian sediments on the western arm of the permit, and the east being underlain by basal tholeiitic basalt-gabbro assemblage. The eastern assemblage has been intruded by several bodies including a diorite body east of the Yaramoko village, a large quartz-bearing granitoid that stretches south from the village of Bagassi, and the smaller granitoid body to the east of Bagassi, which hosts the 55 Zone gold deposit. The contact of granitoid rocks with the volcaniclastic sequences is considered most favourable for gold mineralization.


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Fig 9 Regional geology of southwest Burkina Faso



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Tectonic and structural setting. The 55 Zone deposit is believed to be an orogenic gold deposit. The deposit is hosted within a tensional shear within a larger sinistral shear zone. Quartz carbonate lode gold deposits such as the 55 Zone are typically structurally-controlled vein systems within metamorphic terrains, and usually within greenschist facies rocks. The deposits are spatially and temporally associated with subalkalic intrusions of intermediate to felsic composition that span the boundary between ilmenite and magnetic-series. An important element in the model is that the deposits are coeval with their associated, causative intrusion. At a regional scale, these deposits are associated with magmatic provinces for their tungsten and tin deposits. They also occur in tectonic settings well inboard of inferred or recognized plate boundaries.

Mineralization. The 55 Zone, the area of the current mineral resource estimate and majority of exploration work, consists of a gold-bearing quartz vein hosted within a shear that cross-cuts the granitoid body with inclusions of altered mafic volcanic rafts. The mineralized portion of the shear is expressed as a quartz vein in the brittle deformed granitoid body, and appears to be ductile deformed within mineralized mafic volcanics. The 55 Zone is a quartz-dominated system, with low sulfide content, generally less than 5% volume, with a reduced core mineral assemblage comprised of arsenopyrite, pyrrhotite and pyrite, and lacking in magnetite or hematite. The mineralogical association includes <5–15% carbonate minerals as well as albite, sericite, chlorite, scheelite and tourmaline. Metal assemblages combine gold with variably elevated Bi, W, As, Mo, Te, and Sb, but low concentrations of base metals. The deposits also show confined and commonly weak proximal alteration.

Two modes of gold mineralization have been identified on the Yaramoko property. The most common and visually obvious type of mineralization is coarse gold ingrained with quartz veins. The gold-bearing veins, with minor disseminated pyrite, range from a few centimetre veinlets to a width of 2–4m. The second type of mineralization encountered is pyrite, which occurs in zones of conspicuous shearing, primarily in the volcanic rocks, with minimal to no significant quartz veining. These two styles of mineralization represent the end members of brittle-ductile deformation within the 55 Zone where coarse gold in a vein, usually in a granitic host, defines a more brittle environment; while pyrite and shearing in the volcanics is typical of a ductile domain.

55 Zone North. Three minor discontinuous veins located in the hanging wall of the 55 Zone Main have been named 55 Zone North. The deposit has been the focus of exploration activity since it was first discovered by RC Hole 55. The vein trends at an azimuth approximately 079º to 080º and dips steeply 75–85° to the south. Surface exposure of the vein is minimal as it outcrops for a few short metres at its eastern end. A large Orpaillage site has been established by the local population, and probably offers the best surface representation of the strike of the vein. The vein ranges in thickness from 1–4m true width and displays sharp contacts with the wall rock when hosted in the granitoid. Contacts are more irregular and may appear as a shear when hosted in the basalts. Grade is variable within the structure and can range from zero to bonanza-grade intervals assaying in excess of 200g/t.

Other targets. Roxgold has a number of other exploration targets on the Yaramoko property. Bagassi South has been explored with reverse circulation and diamond drilling, and has been the subject of additional exploration in late 2012 and early 2013. The recently-discovered 300 Zone is being assessed via a diamond drill program for its potential. Mineralization at the 300 Zone consists of pyrite hosted in a quartz sericite pyrite veining within an east–west trending shear.


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Fig 10 Yaramoko and 55 Zone geology



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Fig 11 Yaramoko, 55 Zone longitudinal section looking north



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Fig 12 Yaramoko, 55 Zone cross section 469100E looking west



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Resource Objective of 1m high-grade ounces... In August 2012, Roxgold released an initial resource estimate for the 55 Zone on the Yaramoko property. This initial resource was prepared by AGP Mining Consultants, an independent third party, and undertaken in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards for Disclosure of Mineral Properties. At a cut-off of 3g/t Au, the results from the latest resource estimate for the Yaramoko 55 Zone returned 1.3m tonnes of Indicated resource grading 15.7g/t gold, containing an estimated 679,273 ounces of gold. In the Inferred category, the resource estimate returned 751,000 tonnes grading 8.9g/t containing an estimated 215,811 ounces of gold. The lower grade of the Inferred resource is a function of spacing of drill holes (50m) and their area of influence, compared to Indicated resources with tighter spacing (25m). Most of the mineralization is contained within the top 400m of the deposit.

The resource estimate is restricted to the 55 Zone and does not include intersections drilled on other zones discovered on the Yaramoko Property. Since August 2011, four phases of diamond drilling have been conducted on the property. A total of 213 drill holes (out of 257) were used for the latest resource update with an aggregate length of 81,105m. Exploration reverse circulation drilling, rotary air blast or augur drill hole results are not used in the resource estimation.

…With additional potential. The 55 Zone is continuous and scout drilling suggests the principal vein extends to at least 900m of depth down-plunge toward the east. At present, the 55 Zone extends for 750m along strike. To the west, soil geochemistry and auger sampling suggest that the zone continues for another 700m. Based on the continuity and strength of mineralization to depth, management is confident that the resource will exceed 1m ounces.

Fig 13 Indicated and Inferred resource for the 55 Zone at various cut-off grades

Source: Roxgold; AGP Mining Consultants; Resource Update Report for the Yaramoko, 55 Zone, West-Central Burkina Faso; Macquarie Research, June 2013

At 1 March 2013 Cut-offGrade Tonnage Average Grade Contained Gold

Category g/t Au t g/t Au oz

Indicated >5.0 1,032,000 19.3 639,951

Inferred >5.0 495,000 11.5 183,894

Indicated >3.0 1,343,000 15.7 679,273

Inferred >3.0 751,000 8.9 215,811

Indicated >2.0 1,504,000 14.3 692,323

Inferred >2.0 913,000 7.8 228,821


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Fig 14 55 Zone position of the 3D Wireframe Volumes

Source: Roxgold; AGP Mining Consultants; Resource Update Report for the Yaramoko, 55 Zone, West-Central Burkina Faso; Macquarie Research, June 2013

Metallurgy High gravity recoveries. In December 2012, Roxgold released the results of preliminary metallurgical test work conducted on composite samples prepared from diamond drill core from the 55 Zone on the Yaramoko property. Preliminary results returned 60.8% to 90.8% gravity recoveries and average total recoveries over 97% when samples were ground to 80% passing 75 microns followed by gravity concentration and a 48-hour cyanide leach of the gravity tailings. Roxgold is investigating increasing the grind size to 110 microns, given the strong gravity recovery.


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Fig 15 Initial metallurgy study results on the 55 Zone


55 Zone project economics Underground mine plan with 1m oz of production. Our mine model is based on the most recent resource estimate, based on a cut-off of 3g/t. We have modelled a mine scenario for the 55 Zone with a resource of 2.6mt of ore containing 1.2m ounces at an average grade of 15g/t gold. The development plan for the deposit considers an underground operation for the entire mine life, based on mostly longhole open stoping of a vein that averages 2.0–3.0m in width. We have assumed a construction capital cost of $100m for the mine starting in 2017 based on $35m for mine development, $40m for a mill, and $25m for mine infrastructure and camp facilities. Our mine scenario is modelled on an operation with a throughput of 750tpd, or 270ktpa, generating an average annual production of 102koz for the mine life based on higher-grade production in early years and declining as the mine matures. We have assumed conservative unit costs of $150/t for mining, $25/t for processing, and $10/t for G&A, which results in total cash costs per ounce of approximately $500/oz in the first years of production, rising to $600/oz and higher in the second half of the mine life. Mining would likely be undertaken by a contractor such as African Underground Mining Services (AUMS). Our operating and cost parameters are in Fig 16 below.

Composite/Core Test Calculated NaCN Gravity OverallAu Grade BBWI Recovery Test Au Head Consumption Au Au

Sample g/t (kWh/t) Description g/t kg/t Recovery Recovery

Granite & Quartz 10.87 14.9 Gravity + Tailings 15.5 0.14 90.8% 98.8%Cyanidation

Direct Intensive 18.6 0.50 n/a 99.3%Cyanidation

Volcanic & Quartz 10.67 14.2 Gravity + Tailings 11.4 0.14 60.8% 94.5%Cyanidation

Direct Intensive 13.0 0.60 n/a 95.7%Cyanidation

Hole 22 62.70 13.6 Gravity + Tailings 25.5 0.19 84.5% 99.5%Cyanidation


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Fig 16 Operating and cost assumptions for the 55 Zone, Yaramoko


Positive economics even at lower gold prices. The economics of the project are typical of high-grade, low-tonnage mine scenarios, with high operating margins. The 55 Zone should benefit from higher grades in the early years, such that payback of the project will be just over one year at our forward gold price of $1,479/oz. Based on the above operating and cost parameters, under the forward curve gold price scenario, we calculate the project generates a NPV12% of $238m and an IRR of 69%. At a gold price scenario of $1,200/oz, the NPV12% falls to $170m, with an IRR of 59%. We estimate the project breaks even at a gold price close to $700/oz.

Potential to extend the mine life. We believe this base case is conservative: given the small size of the deposit, operations could begin earlier than 2017, and as the deposit expands, the PEA and subsequent economic studies will likely optimize the project operating parameters to enhance returns. We also believe that, as the resource increases, the economics would benefit from a higher throughput, resulting in lower costs and an acceleration of cashflows earlier in the mine life. In the long run, we believe there is considerable potential to extend the mine life by following the mineralization down-plunge to the east and along strike to the west. If sufficient reserves are added to depth, the construction of a shaft could be considered later in the mine life. The tables below highlight our estimates of the economics for the 55 Zone.

Resource in situMineralization

Production start dateMining dilutionGold production, life of mine (moz)Average annual productionLife of mine (yrs)Mine and mill throughputGold recovery

Construction capex (US$m)Sustaining capex* (US$mpa)Mine typeMining method

Unit operating costs:Mining (US$/t mined)Milling (US$/t milled)G&A (US$/t milled)Total (US$/t milled)Cash cost per ounce

Burkina Faso income taxBurkina Faso royaltyBurkina Faso carried interest

2.6mt @ 15.0g/t = 1.2m ozShear related quartz carbonate lode gold deposit

201712%1.0102 koz (120 koz in f irst 5 years, 89 koz for rest of mine life)10750 tpd, 270k tpa90%

$100$0 *(included in operating costs)Underground mine, ramp access, paste backfillLonghole open stoping

$150$25$10$185$500/oz ($491/oz in f irst 5 years, $633/oz for rest of mine life)

27%5%10% after payback of capital


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Fig 17 Macquarie estimates for NPV and IRR sensitivities of the 55 Zone (100% Basis)


Other properties

Bissa West property

The Bissa West property (Bouboulou permit) covers approximately 38.3sq km in the Province of Passoré in central Burkina Faso. The property is located approximately 75km northwest of the capital city of Ouagadougou. Previous operators BHP, Boliden and Orezone, conducted regional soil geochemistry, mapping, RAB drilling and airborne magnetic-EM surveys on the property and identified a large potential gold zone. During the 12-month period ended 31 October 2012, drilling on the Bissa West property included 2,400m of RC drilling and over 14,500m of RAB drilling. The Bouboulou permit was recently extended for an additional three years.

Solna Group of properties The Solna Group of properties comprises three large contiguous permits – Solna, Teyango and Yantara – in total covering approximately 373sq km in the Province of Yagha in eastern Burkina Faso. The property is located approximately 375km east of the capital city of Ouagadougou. During the 12-month period ended 31 October 2012, no significant work was conducted on the properties, and the company does not have any work programs planned in 2013.


$1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,4790% $440 $503 $565 $614

Disc. Rate 5% $291 $333 $374 $4078% $230 $263 $296 $322

10% $197 $226 $254 $27612% $170 $194 $219 $23815% $136 $156 $176 $192

IRR 59% 63% 67% 69%

Gold price ($/oz)


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Fig 18 Exploration projects in the Yaramoko area

Source: Roxgold, Macquarie Research, June 2013 June 2013

Black Creek (Probe)


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Fig 19 Exploration targets on the Bagassi Central property


Outlook Working toward a new resource and PEA. Roxgold will continue to focus its efforts on advancing its Burkina Faso mineral properties, primarily Yaramoko. During 2013, the company plans to update the current technical report to include additional drilling on the 55 Zone. The updated resource along with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is planned for September. Upon receipt of a positive PEA, Roxgold intends to use the study and results of other studies to launch a bankable feasibility study (BFS) and apply for a mining permit for the 55 Zone. The company believes that an underground development program with a decline could commence in 2Q14.

Regional program. As work on the PEA and BFS continues, additional surveys and auger drilling are planned at Yaramoko, and significant anomalies will be followed up with RC and core drilling as resources permit. Planned core drilling will target resource definition and expansion on the 55 Zone as well as other already-identified district targets.

Black Creek (Probe)


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During 2013, the company’s work plans at Yaramoko include:

continued in-fill and extensional core drilling on the 55 Zone;

core drilling to test the 55 Zone down-plunge from 400m to 700m below surface;

additional metallurgical testing of drill core from the 55 Zone;

drilling of additional geochemical targets in the Yaramoko permit area; and

continued work on the PEA, environmental and social studies.

For 2013, Roxgold has planned 7,000m RC drilling, 8,000m of auguring, 3,000m of BQ scout drilling, an IP survey in the north and west of the 55 Zone, concession wide mapping and prospecting.

Fig 20 Roxgold – upcoming milestones


Management and Directors Strong team for a small company… For a small, relatively early-stage company, Roxgold has a very strong team behind it. John Dorward, CEO, has been in CFO and business development roles for several junior mining companies, most notably Fronteer Gold, which was taken over by Newmont Mining. Paul Criddle, COO, has extensive experience in building and operating gold mines in Africa. Pierre Matte, country manager, has over 20 years of expatriate experience with international mining companies, mainly in French-speaking West Africa, and has held senior leadership roles in companies through the full spectrum of exploration, construction and start-up of gold mining projects. Ben Pullinger, manager of geology, is experienced in West Africa geology, as well as in capital markets. Ben has doubled the depth of mineralization to 900m since taking over the drilling program in the fall of 2012.

… That can build or sell. The Roxgold board is led by Oliver Lennox-King, Chairman, and other members who are as equally experienced in building mines and companies as they are in adding value and selling assets at a premium. The board members have been instrumental in some of the most successful names on the TSX, including Homestake Mining, Fronteer Gold, MAG Silver, Kinross, Canico, Sutton Resources, Detour Lake, Lac Minerals and Placer Dome. Whichever direction Roxgold takes, we are confident that management and the board will maximize value for shareholders. For now, Mr. Dorward and his team are focused on developing the Yaramoko property, and in particular, the 55 Zone.

Objective 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013Preliminary Metallurgical Testing

2nd Phase Metallurgical Testing (Q2)Baseline Environmental Studies

CSR ProgramPhase 1 Drilling - 55 Zone 7500m

Phase 2 Drilling - 55 Zone 400-700mProvide Updated Resource Estimation

Regional ExplorationResource Update 3 (Q3)

Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)Application for Exploitation Permit

DFS Activities (contingent on PEA results)


3 June 2013 24

Financial and capital structure Roxgold has approximately 143m shares outstanding and 157m shares fully diluted, which at the current share price represents a market capitalization of approximately $72m. The 7.6m options are exercisable at $0.30 to $2.00 for a total amount of $7.4m, and 5.9m warrants are exercisable at $0.75 to $1.10 for a total amount of $5.6m. The company’s current cash position is approximately $13m. Shares are 39% owned by institutional investors, management and the board control 6%, and the rest of the shares are owned by retail investors. The top institutional shareholders include GCIC, African Lion3, AGF, Acuity, and Sprott.

Fig 21 Roxgold – capital structure and balance sheet summary

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2013

Capital structure (m)Basic shares outstanding 143.1Options & w arrants outstanding 13.4Fully diluted shares outstanding 156.6

Balance sheet ($m)Cash 13.0Debt 0.0Net cash 13.0Cash from the exercise of options and w arrants 0.8Total cash 13.8

Net cash per basic share outstanding $0.09Net cash per fully diluted share after exercise of options and w arrants $0.09


3 June 2013 25

Fig 22 Roxgold – options and warrants outstanding

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2013

Fig 23 Recent history of Roxgold financings


Options Expiry Date Exercise Price No. of ITM options Value of ITM options66,667 17-Jul-2013 $0.30 66,667 $20,000

1,943,000 13-Nov-2013 $0.35 1,943,000 $680,050875,000 13-Nov-2013 $0.75 0 $0225,000 15-Nov-2013 $1.25 0 $0330,000 15-Nov-2013 $2.00 0 $0

1,000,000 30-Nov-2013 $1.65 0 $0200,000 8-Nov-2015 $0.35 200,000 $70,00075,000 10-Aug-2016 $0.75 0 $0

1,150,000 9-Nov-2016 $1.25 0 $0125,000 9-Jan-2017 $1.65 0 $0375,000 6-Mar-2017 $2.00 0 $0200,000 4-Oct-2017 $0.96 0 $0

1,025,000 18-Dec-2017 $0.75 0 $07,589,667 2,209,667 $770,050

Warrants Expiry Date Exercise Price No. of ITM w arrants Value of ITM w arrants3,254,000 10-May-2013 $1.00 0 $0591,691 10-May-2013 $0.75 0 $0

1,305,915 6-Oct-2013 $0.85 0 $0702,468 16-Nov-2013 $1.10 0 $0

5,854,074 0 $0

Date Units (m) Unit price Proceeds ($m)

Feb-13 14.973 $0.70 $10.481

Feb-12 14.000 $1.85 $25.900

Nov-11 10.325 $1.10 $11.358

Oct-11 23.530 $0.85 $20.001

private placement: 1 w arrant = 1 common share @ $1.10 per share

subscription receipts: 1 w arrant = 1 common share @ $0.85 per share

Details

private placement

private placement


3 June 2013 26

Appendix 1

Management and Directors

John Dorward President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Mr.John Dorward has over 17 years of experience in mining and finance. He served most recently as Vice-President – Business Development at Fronteer Gold Inc., and was an integral part of the team that sold the large Michelin uranium deposit, acquired AuEX Ventures Inc. and successfully advanced Fronteer Gold’s properties prior to its sale to Newmont Mining Corporation for $2.3bn in 2011. Prior to his role at Fronteer Gold, Mr. Dorward was the CFO of Mineral Deposits Limited from 2006 to 2009, where he was responsible for financing the construction of the Sabodala Gold Project in Senegal, West Africa. Mr. Dorward was previously CFO at Leviathan Resources Limited, an ASX-listed gold producer, prior to its acquisition in 2006. Mr. Dorward is currently a non-executive director of Pilot Gold Inc. and Navarre Minerals Limited, an ASX-listed explorer.

Wayne Moorhouse Chief Financial Officer Mr. Wayne Moorhouse has extensive experience with public companies and has acted as the Chief Financial Officer for a number of TSX- and TSX Venture-listed resource companies, including Genco Resources Ltd, Andover Ventures Inc. and Stealth Energy Inc. His background includes development, operations, mine finance, contract negotiations, community and government relations, corporate governance and mergers and acquisitions. Mr. Moorhouse is currently a director of Source Exploration.

Paul Criddle Chief Operating Officer Mr. Paul Criddle, a metallurgist, has many years of operating and project development experience in West Africa. Most recently Paul was the COO at Azimuth Resources Limited, where he was responsible for resource growth and development studies. Prior to this he was the Acting COO of Perseus Mining Limited, where he was responsible for operations at the Edikan Gold Mine in Ghana and the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Tengrela Gold Project in Cote D’Ivoire. Before joining Perseus, Paul managed the construction, commissioning and operation of the Sabodala Gold Project. Prior to MDL, Paul held a variety of senior technical roles at Placer Dome/Barrick in Australia, Papua New Guinea and Tanzania.

Ben Pullinger Senior Manager, Geology Mr Ben Pullinger was most recently a research analyst at Toll Cross Securities Inc. where he covered Roxgold. Before joining Toll Cross, Ben was involved in gold discoveries at Pelangio Exploration Inc.’s Manfo Project in Ghana and had several years’ experience working in high-grade underground mines in Canada.

Pierre Matte General Manager, Burkina Faso Pierre Matte has over 20 years of expatriate experience with international mining companies, mainly in French-speaking West Africa. Pierre started his expatriate career in 1989, and after a brief spell in the bauxite industry, he has spent his career in gold development and operations. Pierre has worked in Guinea, Niger and in French Guyana, South America, and he has just finished a 12-year assignment in Mali where he held the positions of Financial and Administration Manager, Country Manager and General Manager with Anglo Gold, Nevsun and Avion Gold, respectively. Pierre has held senior leadership roles in companies through the full spectrum of exploration, construction and start-up of gold mining projects.


3 June 2013 27

Oliver Lennox-King Chairman Mr. Oliver Lennox-King served as the Non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Fronteer Gold Inc. until it was acquired by Newmont Mining Corporation on 6 April 2011, and is a Director of Teranga Gold Corporation. Until the initial public offering of Teranga, Mr. Lennox-King served on the board of Mineral Deposits Limited, but did not stand for re-election at the November 2010 Special and Annual General Meeting of MDL. Mr. Lennox-King has over 30 years of experience in the mineral resource industry and has a wide range of experience in financing, research and marketing. He has spent the last 17 years in executive positions and directorships with junior mining companies. He was instrumental in the formation of Southern Cross Resources Inc. in 1997. Mr. Lennox-King was formerly President of Tiomin Resources Inc. from 1992 to 1997. From 1980 to 1992, he was a mining analyst in the Canadian investment industry. From 1972 to 1980, he worked in metal marketing and administrative positions at Noranda Inc. and Sherritt Gordon Ltd. Mr. Lennox-King graduated with a bachelor of commerce from the University of Auckland, New Zealand.

Richard Colterjohn Director Mr. Richard Colterjohn, B. Comm., MBA, has been a Managing Partner of Glencoban Capital Management Inc., a merchant banking firm, since 2002. He has over 20 years of involvement in the mining sector, as an investment banker, director and operator. Prior to co-founding Glencoban Capital, he served as a Managing Director at UBS Bunting Warburg from 1992 to 2002, where he was Head of Mining Sector investment banking activities in Canada. In 2004, he founded Centenario Copper Corporation and served as the President and CEO and a director, until the sale of the company in 2009. Mr. Colterjohn has served on the boards of six additional publicly-traded mining companies, including: Canico Resource Corp (2003–05); Cumberland Resources Ltd. (2003–07); Viceroy Exploration Ltd. (2004–06); Explorator Resources Ltd. (2009–11); MAG Silver Corp. (2007-ongoing); and AuRico Gold Inc. (2010-ongoing).

Jonathan A. Rubenstein Director Mr. Jonathan A. Rubenstein is a professional director, serving on the boards of several publicly-listed mining companies, including MAG Silver (as Chairman), Detour Gold Corporation, Eldorado Gold Corporation, Troon Ventures Ltd. and Rio Novo Gold Inc. Mr. Rubenstein’s career in the mining sector has included playing a key role during the acquisition of Aurelian Resources Ltd. by Kinross Gold Corporation in 2007; Cumberland Resources Ltd. by Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. in 2006; Canico Resource Corp. by Companhia Vale do Rio Doce in 2005; and Sutton Resources Ltd. by Barrick Gold Corporation in 1999. Mr. Rubenstein obtained his Bachelor of Arts degree from Oakland University and an LLB from the University of British Columbia. He practiced law until 1994. Mr. Rubenstein obtained his Accredited Director designation in 2011.

John L. Knowles Director Mr. Knowles has over 25 years of experience in senior roles in Canada and overseas with Canadian and international resource companies including several years in Ghana, West Africa, as finance director with a private gold mining company. Since 2007 he has been President and CEO of Wildcat Exploration Ltd., a mineral exploration company, prior to which he was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aur Resources Inc. From 1996 to 2005 he was Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting Co., Limited and, following its acquisition by HudBay Minerals Inc., he was Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of HudBay. Mr. Knowles has been a director of HudBay since 2009. He is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Queen’s University.


3 June 2013 28

Gordon Pridham Director Mr. Gordon Pridham is an experienced corporate executive with more than 30 years of experience in investment banking, capital markets and corporate finance. He has a background in the natural resources and energy sectors, having worked in the Energy and Minerals group of Chemical Bank and National Bank in New York, Calgary, and Toronto. Most recently, Mr. Pridham acted as Executive Chairman and Interim CEO of US Silver Corporation where he was instrumental in developing and implementing a strategic and operating plan to enhance market presence, improve work force, develop long-term production targets, and identify and execute a consolidation strategy through a merger with RX Gold & Silver Inc.

Walter Segsworth Director Mr. Walter Segsworth, P.Eng., is a director of Pan American Silver, Heatherdale Resources, Gabriel Resources Ltd., NovaCopper Inc., Alterra Power Corp. and TELUS World of Science. Mr. Segsworth has 40 years of experience in mining in Canada and overseas and has served as a senior officer of several mining companies including Westmin Resources, where he was President and CEO, and Homestake Mining Company, where he was President and COO. Mr. Segsworth is currently lead independent director of Alterra Power Corp. and Pan American Silver. Mr. Segsworth is past Chairman of both the Mining Associations of British Columbia (BC) and Canada and was named BC’s Mining Person of the year in 1996. He received his bachelor of science in mining engineering from Michigan Technological University.

Joseph G. Spiteri Director Mr. Joseph G. Spiteri, P.Geo., is an independent mining consultant. His commissions have included the evaluation of world-class deposits and operations in Canada and abroad. Mr. Spiteri has over 35 years of experience in advanced stage exploration, ore reserve estimation, feasibility, construction, operations and acquisitions. Prior to becoming a consultant, he held management or executive positions with Dome Mines Group, Placer Dome Incorporated, Northgate Explorations Limited, Lac Minerals Limited and Campbell Resources Incorporated. Mr. Spiteri obtained his Bachelor of Science Degree from the University of Toronto in 1976. He is a member of CIM and The Association of Professional Geoscientists of Ontario. From April 2010 to November 2010, Mr. Spiteri served as a director of Marathon PGM Corporation. From November 2010 to present Mr. Spiteri also served as a director of Marathon Gold Corporation. Mr. Spiteri served as a director of AuRico Gold Inc. (formerly Gammon Gold Inc.) between May 2010 and October 2011 and as of 25 May 2012, continues to serve as a director on the board of AuRico Gold Inc.


3 June 2013 29

Appendix 2 Photographs of Yaromoko rocks

Fig 24 Photo of drill core showing volcanics (in black), gold-bearing quartz vein (in white), and granite (in pink)


Fig 25 Close-up of gold in quartz



3 June 2013 30

Roxgold (ROG CN, Outperform, Target price: C$1.50)


R o xgo ld R OG C N C $ 0.50 R at ing: O T arget: C $ 1.50/ shOperat ing Stat ist ics 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E M etal P rices (US$ ) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Precious M etalsAnnual Production (Au) K oz 0 0 0 0 Gold Price $/oz $1,668 $1,397 $1,404 $1,413 Annual Production (Ag) K oz Silver Price $/oz $31.13 $23.10 $23.20 $23.33Annual Production (Cu) m lb Platinum Price $/oz $2,031 $2,025 $1,850 $1,900 Annual Production (Ni) m lb Paladium Price $/oz $944 $1,025 $950 $900 Annual Production (Zn) m lbAnnual Production (Pb) m lb Base M etals

Copper Price c/lb $336 $315 $320 $326 Production Growth (Au) ∆ nmf nmf nmf Nickel Price c/lb $751 $690 $699 $709

Zinc Price c/lb $88 $86 $89 $92 Total Cash Cost (Au) $/oz $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Lead Price c/lb $93 $92 $94 $96 Total Cash Cost (Ag) $/oz M olybdenum Price $/lb $17 $18 $16 $17 Cash Cost (Cu) $ /lbCash Cost (Ni) $ /lb Bulk CommoditiesCash Cost (Zn) $ /lb Iron Ore Lump $/lb $154 $146 $124 $121 Cash Cost (Pb) $ /lb Iron Ore Pellet $ /lb $190 $188 $159 $153

OtherTotal Cash Cost Change (Au) ∆ nmf nmf nmf Uranium Price $/lb $49 $45 $53 $63

P ro fit & Lo ss 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E P ro f it & Lo ss 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Revenue m $0 $0 $0 $0 Basic EPS (adj) $ /sh ($0.17) ($0.08) ($0.10) ($0.13)Operating M argin m $0 $0 $0 $0 FD EPS (adj) $ /sh ($0.17) ($0.08) ($0.10) ($0.13)EBITDA m ($19) ($11) ($14) ($14) Basic CFPS (adj) $ /sh ($0.05) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.07)G&A m ($6) ($5) ($6) ($6) FD CFPS (adj) $ /sh ($0.05) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.07)Net Interest Expense m ($0.2) ($0.0) $0.0 ($4.0)Tax Expense m $0 $0 $0 $0 Revenue Growth % na na naReported Earnings m ($19) ($11) ($14) ($18) EBITDA Growth % -39.8% 25.6% 0.0%

Basic WA Shs OS m 116.2 136.2 136.2 136.2FD WA Shs OS m 116.2 136.2 136.2 136.2

C ashflo w A nalysis 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Valuat io n 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Cashflow from Operations m ($6) ($5) ($6) ($10) P/E x -3.0 -6.0 -4.8 -3.7Cashflow from Investments m ($27) ($3) $0 ($50) P/CF x -9.8 -13.2 -11.4 -6.8Cashflow from Financings m $39 $10 $100 $0 EV/EBITDA x nmf nmf nmf nmfNet Chg in Cash/Debt m $8 $1 $94 ($60)

B alance Sheet 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E B alance Sheet R at io s 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E

Cash m $2.6 $10.0 $104.0 $44.0 ROA % (22) (13) (8) (15)Working Capital m $12.2 $20.7 $114.7 $54.7 ROE % (23) (13) (11) (26)Total Assets m $85.3 $87.6 $181.6 $121.6 Net Debt/Equity % (3) (12) (42) 9Long-Term Debt m $0.0 $0.0 $50.0 $50.0 Price/Book x 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8Total Liabilities m $4.2 $2.4 $52.4 $52.4 Book Value per Share $/sh $0.70 $0.62 $0.95 $0.51Total S/H Equity m $81.2 $85.1 $129.2 $69.2


3 June 2013 31

Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2013 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 45.12% 53.24% 50.00% 40.70% 62.98% 43.30% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 10.55% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 41.52% 28.01% 41.43% 55.01% 32.60% 34.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 13.36% 18.74% 8.57% 4.29% 4.42% 22.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4

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http://dis.kofia.or.kr/fs/dis2/fundMgr/DISFundMgrAnalystPop.jsp?companyCd2=A03053&pageDiv=02

CANADA Roxgold - Aktienkurse rate Estimated WACC of 12% Share issue price to finance project $1.00...

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Transcript of CANADA Roxgold - Aktienkurse rate Estimated WACC of 12% Share issue price to finance project $1.00...