Can we predict how good a movie will dorecherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/... · Can...
Transcript of Can we predict how good a movie will dorecherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/... · Can...
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Can we predict how good a movie will do ?
Alexandre Chau and Arthur Thibaud
ENAC
April 22, 2018
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
1 IntroductionContextVariables
2 First model : study of the box-officeMarginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
3 Second model : study of the rentabilityMarginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
4 ConclusionPredictionsLimits
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
The Blair Witch project
Table: A movie which made a huge profit
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Our sample
Purpose
Can we predict if a movie will make money ?
Number of observations
n = 108 movies and k = 26 variables
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Non-dummy variables
Variables Description
box Box office after a month in the US (in million dollars)budget Budget (in million dollars)critics meta Rating of Metacritic (in % )critics tomato Rating of RottenTomatoes (in % )director Number of nominations at the Academy Awards for Best Directorhigher budgets Number of movies released the same month with a higher budgetlength Length of the movie (in minutes)star Number of Academy Award nominations for the star actorsupporting Number of Academy Award nominations for the supporting actortrailers Number of trailersyear Year of release of the movie
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Dummy variables
Variables Description
action The movie is an action movieadventure The movie is an adventure moviecomedy The movie is a comedy moviedocumentary The movie is a documentary moviedrama The movie is a drama movieeurope The movie is an europea moviefantastic The movie is a fantastic moviehorror The movie is an horror movienew story The movie is a new storypg The movie is a pg moviepg 13 The movie is a pg 13 movier The movie is a rated R moviesaga The movie is a sagathriller The movie is a thriller movieus The movie is an american movie
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Histogram of the box-office
Figure: Histogram and stats for box office.7 / 30
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Histogram of the budget
Figure: Histogram and stats for budget.8 / 30
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
ContextVariables
Correlation matrix
Europe and US correlation
Critics correlation
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
First model
We started by looking how the variables were affecting thebox-office
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Computed equation
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant
action / - noadventure / - nobudget + + yescomedy / - nocritics tomato + + yesdirector + + nodocumentary / - nodrama / - noeurope - - yesfantastic / - no...
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
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Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant
higher budgets - + nohorror / + nolength / + yesnew story + - nopg 13 / + nor - - yessaga + + yesstar + + nosupporting + - yesthriller / + notrailers + + yesyear / + no
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Normality of the errors
Figure: The errors don’t follow a normal law.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Heteroscedasticity
Figure: It seems that the sample contains heteroscedasticity
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Heteroskedasticity
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Standard errors
Table: Adjusted R squared Table: Standard errors
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Improvement of first model
We recomputed the box-office, but this time only against thevariables that were significant i.e. budget, critics tomato, europe,
length, r, saga, supporting and trailers.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsStudy of the modelFurther analysisFirst model bis
Computed equation
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
Rentability
We created a second model, this time in order to study therentability, which is the ratio between the box-office and the
budget.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
EViews modelization
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
1/2
Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant
action / + noadventure / + nocomedy / + nocritics tomato + + nodirector + + nodocumentary / - nodrama / + nofantastic / + no...
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
2/2
Variables Predicted effect Actual effect Significant
higher budgets - + yeshorror / + yeslength / + yesnew story + + yespg 13 / - yesr - - nosaga + + yesstar + - yessupporting + - nothriller / + notrailers + + yesus / + yesyear / - no
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
Heteroscedasticity test
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
Improvement of second model
We recomputed the rentability, but this time only against thevariables that were siginificant i.e. higher budgets, horror, length,
new story, r, saga, star, trailers and us.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
Marginal effectsFurther analysisSecond model bis
EViews modelization
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
PredictionsLimits
Comparison of the models
Table: iENAC14 model : Prediction/reality = 1.36
Reality
Box-office after 1 month: $321,322,593 , rentability : 1.29
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
PredictionsLimits
Comparison of the models 1 : Batman vs Superman
First models
Box-office prediction = $263,781,100Ratio : 0.82 (adjusted R2 : 0.734)
Box-office prediction = $296,722,240Ratio : 0.92 (adjusted R2 : 0.735)
Second models
Rentability prediction = 217.43, ratio : 168.55Rentability prediction = 40.68, ratio :31.5
Pretty bad modelization of rentability.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
PredictionsLimits
Comparison of the models 2 : Blair Witch Project
Real box office
$113,380,000
First models
1- Box-office prediction = $20,272,040Ratio : 0.18 (adjusted R2 : 0.734)
2- Box-office prediction = $173,379,800Ratio : 1.53 (adjusted R2 : 0.742)
Second models
1- Rentability prediction = 1109, ratio : 0.482- Rentability prediction = 1080, ratio : 0.46
Better modelization than the first movie.
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Table of contentsIntroduction
First model : study of the box-officeSecond model : study of the rentability
Conclusion
PredictionsLimits
Limits
Limits of our models
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