Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car?The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia

Albert ChingMasters of City Planning Candidate, 2012Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore

In India, cell phones 50x as ubiquitous as cars750+ million cell phones (launched in 1995) vs. 13 million cars (launched 1897)

The problem

Rush hour traffic in Jakarta

“Transport-related CO2 emissions

expected to increase 57%

worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the

majority of these will come from

private vehicles”(ADB 2009)

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (city-scale)

Gov’t with limited resources

Public transport poor

1Low ridership

Poor with limited

mobility

Middle- & upper-

class purchase private 2-

or 4-wheeler*

Increases congestio

n

City expands

Investment in road infrastructure*

Poor pedestrianwalkways

2

Air pollution

Unsustainable levels of CO2 +

GHGs

3

Mass transit extremely

costly, difficult to

implement, and does not

reduce congestion

(Gakenheimer 2011)

“Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related

CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in

Asia”(ADB 2009)

“The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on

non-motorised and public transport. The

poor have a more limited range of

destinations, being more focused on core

destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002)

Walk-ing

Quality of mobility

(no. of trips,accessibility

to destinations, comfort,

convenience,

productivity)

Personal income

Bicycle

Para-transit

Private 2-wheeler

Private auto

Pri

vate

auto

Pri

vate

2-

wheele

r

Bic

ycl

e

Public transport

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (rational

consumer)

Auto lock-in*

Cost

per

trip

In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles

Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective

increase in cost per trip

1

2

The private auto lock-in* death spiral (aspirational

consumer)

Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures

Most cities in developing Asia still with low per

capita incomes and motorization rates

2

3

Singapore ($43K, 150)

Hong Kong($39K

, 80)

Sydney / Melbourne

($34K, 630)

Tokyo*($30K, 275)Seoul*

($23K, 220)

Kuala Lumpur($12

K, 270)

Bangkok($7K, ~200)

Dhaka($1K, 2)

Unr

estr

aine

d

mot

oriz

atio

n

Beijing / Shanghai($7K,

80)Jakarta($4K, 50)

Manilla($3K, 30)

Bangalore

($3K, 12)

Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)

Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP)

1

Low motorization

Globally, there is a strong correlation

between income and private motorization

rates

Au

tos p

er

1000

peop

le

Restrained motorization

Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Motorization 2004 figures

. . . although lock-in may happen at lower

motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher

densities

Bangkok(~200, 65)

Kuala Lumpur(240,

8)

Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20)

Singapore (150, 93)

Hong Kong(80,

70)

Tokyo*(275, 50)

Seoul*(220, 90)

Do higher densities limit short-term motorization

and/or eventually lead to lower density development?

Dhaka(2, 89)

Beijing / Shanghai

(80, 150)Manilla(30, 78)

Bangalore

(12, 130)

Auto lock-in lineJakarta

(50, 100) Low motorization cities

all expected to increase urban populations by 10-

90%

Au

tos p

er

1000

peop

le

Urban density(Persons per hectare)

Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing,

perhaps highest valued-added product in human

history

Tracks and locates user

travel demand in real-

time

1

Provides real-time travel

supply information for

users

2

Provides information on

new destinations4

Enables productive use

of travel time3

Can become a new

vehicle for travel

payments

5

Intelligence infrastructure way ahead of

transportation in most developing Asian cities

Singapore Kuala Lumpur

Bangkok Jakarta Bangalore Dhaka

16

27

17

2 1 0

75

106

81

73

63

40

Private Autos per 100

Mobile Phones per 100

4.7x

3.9x

4.9x

35x

53x

201x

Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand

Creates sharing systems for private modes

Increases the opportunity cost of drivingIntelligence can

enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics

Smartphoneshave increased the opportunity cost of driving

Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community

Brings better- quality goods and services closer to usersMobile food trucks and robust online delivery services have eliminated the need for some trips while destination (e.g. restaurant) reviews help to ensure that trips are of higher quality

What is the magnitude of these impacts relative to other measures e.g. congestion pricing?

1 2 3 4

(In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand

Provides economic benefit to drivers

Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor)

In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is

creating new possibilities that may potentially

deter private auto ownership

Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years

Online eco-system in early stages in developing Asia

Tracks and locates

user travel demand in

real-time

1

Tracks and locates travel

supply information in

real-time

2

Efficiently matches real-

time

supply and demand

3

Even basic mobile phone technology enables more

coordinated sharing of transport assets across

space and time

Efficiency gains potentially create new business models and alternatives to private auto ownership

In more dense environments,

high demand and high

frequency service can relatively

efficiently match supply with

demand

Technologies required for each

one of these functions need not

be the most sophisticated ones

on the market; Basic SMS and

call can sometimes perform

better than GPS

Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched January 2011

Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to

pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to

create sustainable profit from these transport

efficiency gains Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30%

In doing so, entrepreneurs may be offsetting some

of the spatial constraints of private auto growth

(city-scale)

Private Auto

Private Moto

Car Share

Auto Taxi

Moto Taxi

Rickshaw Taxi

Bus Jitneys

Road space (in sq m)

5 2 5 6 2 4 25

Idling time (per day)

90% 90% 80% 70% 70% 70% 50%

Occupancy rate (no. of passengers)

1 1 1 1.2 (excl driver)

1(excl driver)

1 (excl driver)

10

Wasted road space-days per day per capita

4.5 1.8 2.5 3.5 1.4 2.8 1.3

Private automobile / moto substitutes

(motorised)

Figures are illustrative

Walk-ing

Quality of mobility

(no. of trips,accessibility

to destinations, comfort,

convenience,

productivity)

Personal income

Bicycle

Para-transit

Private 2-wheeler

Private auto

Pri

vate

auto

Pri

vate

2-

wheele

r

Bic

ycl

e

Public transport

Pre-auto lock-in*

1M

obile

phone

Pri

vate

auto

-shari

ng

Shared private auto and bicycle modes more accessible

Para-transit more on-demand and potentially integrated with public transit

2

. . . creating real mobility alternatives to private

auto ownership (rational consumer)

and developing new aspirations for access rather

than ownership (aspirational consumer)

Source: “Tech for Transit: Designing a Future System” by Latitude Research + Next American City

Summer 2011 Field Research Proposal

Go-JEKLaunched Feb 2011

To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation

happening across developing Asia?

Methodology: 2-3 day field visit to 1-2 select cities including general

observation, targeted interviews, and background research

My Teksi(To be launched Aug

2011)

Namma Cycle(To be launched Jul

2011)

Fazilka Eco-Cabs

Launched Jun 2008

Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand

Creates sharing systems for private modes

Increases the opportunity cost of driving

Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users

1 2 3 4

1

Are current experiments sustainable and scalable?What policies might spark and support these efforts?Methodology: 1-3 week field visit and case studies with at least 2 entrepreneurs

2

Do customers perceive these intelligently enabled transport modes as substitutes

for car ownership?Methodology: Detail the customer experience.

If possible, obtain customer feedback and return rates

3

APPENDIX

Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to

mash-up new intelligence infrastructure with private

automobile substitutes

Fazilka eco-cabs, dial-a-rickshaw service launched in Punjab, India in June 2008 and expanding to larger cities of Amritsar and Chandigarh