Can china’s new leader prevent an economic crisis
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Transcript of Can china’s new leader prevent an economic crisis
Can China’s new leader prevent an economic crisis?A presentation by Detlef Mostaert
Content
1. Introduction: Election season
2. Challenges ahead: Is China’s future as bright as often claimed?
3. Necessary reforms: a few suggestions
4. Conclusion: A fragile hope
1) Election season
Obama faces a difficult task…
• Soaring unemployment rates• Growing budget deficit• Slacking Amercian competitiveness• Global warming• China’s lust for power• A hurricane now and then• ….
…while Xi has it easy
• Growth in China is slowing down
=> But still rests firmly in the double digits
• No Budget deficits• No alarming unemployment rates• Extremely competitive• United States are dependant on China• …
2) Challenges ahead
China’s flawed economy
• An investment-led growth model=> Government pumps money in whatever it likes:
- Funding grandiose schemes
- Build more infrastructure
- Host the Olympics
- …
So what’s the problem?
• Investment-led growth models inevitably lead to a debt crisis sooner or later
=> Money gets used inefficiently
=> Debt levels rise because of this
=> Excess capacity gets created
=> The system collapses
A few glaring examples
• About 30%of China’s wind farms isn’t connected to the electricity grid
A few glaring examples
• About 30%of China’s wind farms isn’t connected to the electricity grid
• Shopping malls get build where no one shops
A few glaring examples
• About 30%of China’s wind farms isn’t connected to the electricity grid
• Shopping malls get build where no one shops
• But particularly…
… the steel industry
• Is piling up record losses and liabilities…
=> 445 billion in half a year
• … but is still expanding by order of the government
Macro versus micro contradiction
• At the macro level:
- Positive for GDP growth
• At the micro level:
- Overcapacity, overproduction and debt at the company level
3) Reforms are necessary
A few suggestions
• Scale back state enterprises
- Much of China’s growth story has been a private sector story
- But state enterprises have gained influence in recent years
=> Receive subsidized land, energy, …
=> Receive a large share of the bank credit
But: Without the subsidies their profits would evaporate
A few suggestions
• Encourage the country’s consumers
- The economy is far too dependent on investment
=> Needs more engines of growth
- Encourage the consumers to play a bigger role
=> Liberalize interest rates to make investing more rational
A few suggestions
• Change the financial sector
- Liberalizing interest rates will put pressure on China’s banks
=> Right now: automatic profit
=> Ending the system forces banks to compete and thus be more commercially orientated
A few suggestions
• Strenghten rule of law
- China has lots of rules... but no rule of law:
Decisions are inconsistent, rules are not applied fairly, many rules are left vague…
=> This creates uncertainty which
hampers investment
4) Conclusion
Will anything change?
• Xi Jinping is an enigma
- Nobody knows his true opinions on major economic issues
- To rise to the top he had to appeal to both the conservative and the liberal side
- Yet Xi will have to be a reformer to save China from disaster.
=> Which would be bad for Xi, China and the world