Can big data find the next big thing?
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Transcript of Can big data find the next big thing?
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CAN BIG DATA FIND THE NEXT BIG THING?
Tim Sutton Global Head of Innovation October 2014
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HOW MUCH DATA WOULD 40 OF US GENERATE IN 40 MINUTES?
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3 SOURCE World Bank
7.125 BILLION HUMANS
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1 BILLION GIGABYES PER DAY
7.125 BILLION HUMANS
SOURCE: http://www-01.ibm.com/software/data/bigdata/what-is-big-data.html
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WE’RE GENERATING 560 MB PER PERSON PER DAY*
*NOTE: In developed countries
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6 SOURCE: http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Apollo-11-The-computers-that-put-man-on-the-moon
NASA NEEDED 6 MB TO PUT A MAN ON THE MOON
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IN 40 MINUTES, WE’LL GENERATE 2,105 NOVELS WORTH OF DATA
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THAT IS A STACK OF BOOKS 23 STORIES HIGH
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“THE WORLD IS MAKING A DIGITAL COPY OF ITSELF” PAUL SONDEREGGER, FORBES 9/9/2013
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HOW CAN WE USE THIS MASSIVE, RAW RESOURCE FOR INNOVATION?
?
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WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WE’RE SEEING IN INNOVATION TODAY?
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THE FALL OF BARRIERS TO ENTRY
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CONSUMERS ARE LOYAL
CONSUMERS SEEK NOVELTY
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LIMITED ACCESS TO PRODUCTION
ALIBABA AND CONTRACT PRODUCERS
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4,000 SKUS IN STORE 40,000 SKUS IN STORE
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SUPER BOWL ADS SOCIAL MEDIA
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THE NEXT BIG IDEA CAN COME FROM ANYWHERE
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NIMBLE TRUMPS BIG We need every advantage we can get
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“BIG DATA CAN GENERATE INSIGHTS THAT RESEARCHERS DIDN’T EVEN THINK TO SEEK.” BIG DATA: SEIZING OPPORTUNITIES, PRESERVING VALUES EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT (MAY 2014)
“SIZE IN ITSELF DOESN'T MATTER – WHAT MATTERS IS HAVING THE DATA TO SOLVE OUR PROBLEM.” RUFUS POLLOCK FOUNDER AND CO-DIRECTOR OF THE OPEN KNOWLEDGE FOUNDATION
“BIG DATA IS A VAGUE TERM, OFTEN THROWN AROUND BY PEOPLE WITH SOMETHING TO SELL.” TIM HARFORD FINANCIAL TIMES, MARCH 28, 2014
“DATA IS THE NEW BASIS OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.” IBM
“BIG DATA IS THE NEW OIL. THOSE THAT ARE ABLE TO MINE THIS RESOURCE WILL HAVE AN ENORMOUS ADVANTAGE OVER THOSE THAT DON’T.” PUGH RESEARCH, THE FUTURE OF BIG DATA
“ALL DATA MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME ARE USEFUL.” GEORGE BOX
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SHINY OBJECT? GOLD MINE?
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21 SOURCE: Google Trends
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22 SOURCE: Google Trends
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IS BIG DATA REPLACING INSIGHTS?
A deep understanding of customers is critical to finding unmet needs, but it’s difficult to scale.
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Solving for the next big thing is a highly ambiguous problem.
PAST ≠ FUTURE
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CAN WE DO THIS WITHOUT BIG DATA?
CAN WE DO THIS WITH DATA ALONE?
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BIG DATA = GOBS OF UNTAMED CUSTOMER INFORMATION
It’s data exhaust of credit cards, web searches, and mobile pings, etc., that we’re unconsciously emitting daily
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EXAMPLE: WAZE What could they know? • Where congestion tends to happen • Actual average speeds on every road in America • Where construction is being done • Where police are and when • How fast I drive • Where I am right now • Places I like to go • How well I follow directions • Where I work • If I have children • …
What do the give me in exchange for this: • Directions • Traffic • Share my ETA
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WAZE HAS MORE, AND MORE CURRENT, INFORMTION THAN ANY GOV’T AGENCY
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WHAT IF WAZE TELLS US:
People who avoid driving on highways are 5x more likely to stop at bookstores during the day.
WHY?
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WE KNOW DATA CAN FUEL DECISION ANALYTICS.
WHAT ROLE DOES IT PLAY IN DISCOVERY ANALYTICS?
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Question is well framed: Personalization
Forecasting Optimization
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How can we use data to find really profound,
powerful insights
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HOW BIG IS AN INSIGHT?
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A POWERFUL INSIGHT IS ONE PARAGRAPH, OR LESS THAN 1 KILOBYTE
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SIGNAL NOISE
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Deep understanding of customers tells you where to start
looking
Find hidden trends and unexpected
behaviors that are correlated
Flesh out new territories with “Small Data”
DISCOVERY ANALYTICS: WHAT WE DO KNOW
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DISCOVERY ANALYTICS: WHAT WE DO KNOW
NOT USING DATA
OVER-RELIANCE ON DATA
LIK
ELI
HO
OD
TO
FI
ND
A B
IG ID
EA
INFORMED INSPIRATION
WHAT + WHY
“WHY” “WHAT”
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CLEAR DISCOVERY ANALYTICS MODEL
AGGREGATE QUERY COLLABORATE
EXPLORE
PATTERNS OF INTEREST
BEHAVIOR/BELIEF DISSONANCE
EXPOSE EXPRESS
ACTIONABLE INSIGHT
CUSTOMER IMMERSION
EXPLAIN
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UNTAMED DATA HUMAN UNDERSTANDING
CLEAR DISCOVERY ANALYTICS MODEL
AGGREGATE QUERY COLLABORATE
EXPLORE
PATTERNS OF INTEREST
BEHAVIOR/BELIEF DISSONANCE
EXPOSE
CUSTOMER IMMERSION
EXPLAIN EXPRESS
ACTIONABLE INSIGHT
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UNTAMED DATA + HUMAN UNDERSTANDING = X-RAY VISION
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EXAMPLE: CLUSTERING
200 Million Records: • What they search • What they bought • Where they go • Who they connect with • What they watch • What they listen to • What they read • Data from their apps • Images they upload
People who go to church are 3x more
likely to use fast food coupons
WHAT
IDEA: Can we create a Sunday menu of shareable meals
WHY
Fast food an easy, affordable way to
continue the sense of community.
Deep Customer Understanding • Unmet needs • Motivations • Ambitions • Compensatory
Behaviors • Attitudes
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BIG DATA, DESPITE ITS THORNS, OPENS UP PROMISING NEW AVENUES TO EXPLORE.
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Based across 3 continents
Part of the global network
W E A R E A G L O B A L G R O W T H S T R A T E G Y C O N S U L T A N C Y
We are 80 strong
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UNLOCKING
“Help us leverage a new capability for maximum return.”
RE-IMAGINING
“Help us see the future of our industry & what that means for us.”
STRETCHING
“Help us identify where & how to stretch our brand into new categories.”
DISRUPTING
“Help us unlock a specific growth opportunity with game changing ideas.”
WE HELP CLIENTS GROW BY:
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C O N T E N T S
Tim Sutton Global Head of Innovation [email protected]
CLEAR NEW YORK 270 Lafayette Street Suite 505 New York, NY 10012 United States +1.212.361.0014
CLEAR LONDON Golden House 30 Great Pulteney Street W1F 9NN United Kingdom +44 (0)20 3735 1800
CLEAR SINGAPORE #05-10 Infinite Studios 21 Media Circle Singapore, 138562 +65 6697 0246