Atmosphere Monitoring

Mark ParringtonECMWF

CAMS Emissions

mark.parrington@ecmwf.int

AtmosphereMonitoring

Overview

• Emissions in CAMS– Background to emissions in CAMS.– Surface boundary conditions currently used in the operational

systems.• Future provision of emissions in CAMS

– Review of requirements from the CAMS 81 Invitation To Tender.

AtmosphereMonitoring

Emissions in the CAMS global production system

http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/

AtmosphereMonitoring

Emissions in the CAMS global production system

http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/

AtmosphereMonitoring • Reliable and accurate surface emissions of pollutants are essential to the

successful operation of the CAMS global and regional production systems.• The CAMS 81 ITT will provide:

– Gridded distributions of anthropogenic (global and Europe) and natural emissions (global only) in direct support of CAMS production chains

– Target resolutions of 10 to 50 km (global) and 5 to 10 km (Europe).– Emissions of aerosol, NOx, NH3, SO2, DMS/OCS, NMVOCs, CO, CH4, N2O, CO2,

certain halogen species and Radon-222.– Emissions stratified into headline activity sectors (next slide).– Period covered will be from 2000 to present for the global emissions, and from

2003 to as close as possible to present for the European regional emissions.– Subsequent years will be added at the pace of 1 additional year every year.

CAMS 81 ITT

AtmosphereMonitoring

Headline activity sectors for emissions

AtmosphereMonitoring

Reactive gases Greenhouse gases Aerosols• MACCity anthropogenic

surface emissions.• POET natural emissions from

soils and oceans.• MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions

(simulated off-line, climatological meteorology).

• EDGAR version 4.2FT2010anthropogenic surface fluxes.

• CTESSEL online calculation of biosphere fluxes (including bias correction).

• Online schemes for dust and sea-salt (driven by meteorology: wind speed, SST).

• MACCity anthropogenic emissions of SO2, BC and OM.

• SOA emissions scaled to MACCity anthropogenic CO.

Emissions currently used in CAMSCurrent operational system

Flemming et al., Geoscientific Model Development, 2015Agusti-Panareda et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2014

AtmosphereMonitoring

Reactive gases Greenhouse gases Aerosols• MACCity anthropogenic

surface emissions.• POET natural emissions from

soils and oceans.• MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions

(simulated off-line, climatological meteorology).

• ACCMIP 3-D emissions of NO from aviation.

• MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions (simulated off-line, ERA-Interim meteorology).

• [CMIP anthropogenic surface emissions for pre-industrial and present day.]

• EDGAR version 4.2FT2010anthropogenic surface fluxes.

• CTESSEL online calculation of biosphere fluxes (including bias correction).

• 3-D emissions of CO2 from aviation (scaled to ACCMIP NO).

• Online schemes for dust and sea-salt (driven by meteorology: wind speed, SST).

• MACCity anthropogenic emissions of SO2, BC and OM.

• SOA emissions scaled to MACCity anthropogenic CO.

Emissions currently used in CAMSCurrent operational system and CAMS reanalysis

AtmosphereMonitoring • Provision of gridded distributions of anthropogenic (global and

Europe) and natural emissions (global only) in direct support of CAMS production chains.

• Six workpackages:– WP1: Anthropogenic emissions for the CAMS regional domain – WP2: Anthropogenic emissions for the global domain – WP3: Natural emissions for the global domain – WP4: Consistency between regional and global emissions datasets – WP5: Support to Production Systems – WP6: Service evolution

CAMS 81 ITT

AtmosphereMonitoring • Species:

– aerosol (minimum PM2.5, PM10 and total), NOx, NH3, SO2, DMS, NMVOCs (total and split into main individual species), CO, CH4 and CO2.

• Stratified by SNAP categories.• Road transport: exhaust (gasoline vehicles), exhaust (diesel vehicles),

exhaust (LPG/ natural gas vehicles), gasoline evaporation and tire/brakes/road wear.

• Non-road transport: shipping and aviation.• Fugitive emissions: reactive gases and methane from shale gas

extraction as well as leaks.• Horizontal resolution between 5-10 km as well as point source

information (including height of emission).

WP1: Anthropogenic emissions for the CAMS regional domain

AtmosphereMonitoring • Species:

– aerosol (segregated at least into Organic Matter and Black Carbon), NOx, NH3, SO2, DMS, NMVOCs, CO, CH4 and CO2.

• Stratified by SNAP categories as for the regional domain.• Non-road transport: shipping and 3-D aviation.• Fugitive emissions: reactive gases and methane from shale gas

extraction as well as leaks.• Horizontal resolution between 10-50 km.

WP2: Anthropogenic emissions for the global domain

AtmosphereMonitoring • Provided on same grid as global anthropogenic emissions

• Sources to be covered: – Vegetation – biogenic emissions of NMVOCs consistent with

meteorological conditions.– Soil and non-frozen land surfaces - NOx, NH3, OCS (carbonyl sulphide),

N2O and Radon-222.– Termites – CH4 emissions from digestion of cellulose.– Oceans - main halogens as well as DMS/OCS and N2O.– Volcanoes – continual emissions/outgassing of SO2, CO2 and main

halogens; ad hoc support for emissions from significant eruptions.

WP3: Natural emissions for the global domain

AtmosphereMonitoring • Research and development is required for investigating:

– Feasibility of adapting land-vegetation-carbon model for computing on-line emission fluxes of NMVOCs.

– Temporal patterns of emissions for global and regional scales to improve air quality forecasts with optimal timing of emissions.

– Feasibility of developing parametrisations for anthropogenic emissions using weather-related information.

WP6: Service evolution

AtmosphereMonitoring • Emissions are vital to the successful operation of the CAMS global and

regional systems.• Comprehensive emissions inventories for reactive gases, greenhouse

gases and aerosols originally developed under MACC projects for individual product types.

• CAMS 81 contract will provide multiple years of consolidated and consistent emissions for the global and regional production systems.– Surface boundary conditions for the global and regional

forecasts/analyses.– Stand-alone global emissions inventory.

Summary