Campaign Design and Omni Fusion 09

Defence Research andDevelopment Canada

Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada



Campaign Design for Land Operations –Dealing with Complex Environments and Wicked Problems

Fred Cameron

Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

Campaign Design for Land Operations

• Introduction: Complex Environments and Wicked Problems • Background

– Shimon Naveh and Systemic Operational Design– Australian Army and Adaptive Campaigning– US Army TRADOC and Commander’s Appreciation and

Campaign Design• Recent Canadian Army Experience

– TRADOC’s OMNI FUSION 2009: A Divisional Level Design Team

• Operational Research, Soft System Methods, and Other Initiatives– Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods– Critical Thinking– Creative Thinking– Conceptual Models– Data and Statistical Analysis

• Conclusions


Background• Complex Environments

– General Rick Hillier and the Strategic Advisory Team – Afghanistan

• “The complexity of the challenges facing Afghanistan called for an integrated, long-term approach to nation-building. Part of that approach included the work done with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by the members of the military planning staff in the ISAF Headquarters.” Source: LCol Michel St-Louis, 2009

• “Since 2004, Canada has applied a Whole of Government approach to coordinating its diplomatic, development and defence resources in support of the Afghan people’s efforts to rebuild their country – one of the poorest in the world. A unique and key part of that effort has been the deployment of the Kabul-based Canadian Strategic Advisory Team – Afghanistan; a small team mandated to assist senior Afghan leadership in turning vision and goals into workable plans.” Source: DND Joint Doctrine Note (JDN) 02/2008

http://www.combatcamera.forces.gc.ca/netpub/server.np?original=54089&site=combatcamera&catalog=photos


Background– General Walt Natynchuk and “Actionable

Statistics” in Baghdad• “I found myself dealing with the strategy,

policy, and plans of Operation Iraqi Freedom in Baghdad. It was at this stage that I was introduced to the use of a number of the products of analysis and saw many examples of applying analytical techniques to our mission in OIF … To accomplish this effectively in such a situation is not easy. The context can change rapidly with combat operations, stability operations and PSOs [Peace Support Operations] often occurring simultaneously at different places and at different times.”

• Gen Natynchuk described “how we on the staff of Combined Joint Task Force 7 (CJTF 7) in Baghdad last year [2004] used statistics as indicators of what was happening in our area of responsibility.”

• Wicked Problems

Source: Gen Natynchuk’s Keynote Address in Cornwallis Group X Proceedings, Ted Woodcock (ed.), 2005 , http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php

http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php


West Churchman and ‘Wicked Problems’• Depiction of ‘wicked problems’ started with Professor

Horst Rittel, University of California Architecture Department, 1967

• ‘Wicked’ is supposed to describe the mischievous and even evil quality of some problems, where proposed ‘solutions’ often turn out to be worse than the symptoms

• Attempts to tame wicked problems might consist of ‘carving off’ a piece of the problem and finding a rational and feasible solution to this piece, then leaving for someone else the untamed part

• Does OR merely ‘take away the growl’? Can we inadvertently deceive clients?

Source: C West Churchman. “Wicked Problems”. Management Science, 14:4, December 1967


Selected Aspects of ‘Wicked Problems’

• Often the humans within the problem make it wicked – their purposeful behaviours are inadequately understood

• The problem is not understood until after the formulation of a solution – after some action is taken

• Wicked problems have no ‘stopping rule’ – in military terms: they lack ‘an exit strategy’

• Approaches to wicked problems are neither right nor wrong – most come with consequences, and many of those consequences cannot be anticipated

• Every wicked problem is essentially novel and unique – otherwise we would simply re-use solutions that worked before

• Every solution to a wicked problem is a ‘one-shot operation’ – after intervention, we now have a different problem

• See also: Russell Ackoff on Puzzles, Problems, and Messes


Systemic Operational Design• Shimon Naveh’s In Pursuit of Military Excellence:

Evolution of Operational Theory and many other publications

• “Design is a collaborative, interdisciplinary approach to operations to help the commander develop a fuller situational understanding, shared with superiors, key subordinates, partners, and allies so the commander can formulate a strategy (or stratagem) for changing unacceptable circumstances to more acceptable ones”

• The First Step for the Design Team:– ‘an exploration of the sponsor’s motivation and

expectations’Sound Familiar?

Source: Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice Operational Design” in Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 2009


TRADOC Pam 525-5-500: Commander’s Appreciation and Campaign Design


OMNI FUSION 2009 (OF09)

• OMNI FUSION Series: Multi-year army experiments conducted to discover, refine and/or validate organizational relationships between corps/division headquarters and the different brigades in a future joint, interagency, and multinational operational environment

• OMNI FUSION 09: – Included several preparation activities starting immediately following

OMNI FUSION 08 (planning conferences, seminars, etc.)– Focused on division-level operations– Simultaneously used five Army simulations (OneSAF, ATCOM,

FireSim, EADSIM, and CES)– A closed wide-area network, linking major US Army experimentation

centers: Ft Leavenworth, Ft Sill, Ft Rucker, Ft Benning, Ft Bliss, Ft Monroe, Ft Gordon, Ft Bragg, Ft Leonard Wood, and Huntsville

– Simulation Exercise 13-31 July with over 460 personnel– Canadian, British, and Australian participation– British C2 interoperability: representation from Land Warfare Centre,

UK 12 Mechanized Brigade, Dstl, NITEWORKS

OMNI FUSION 09: Fictional Aegean Regional Overview

Attica• Stable, prosperous society with popular support for dictatorship.• Ethnic and religious diversity unified by political ideology.• Strong economy: oil/gas, manufacturing, agriculture and mining.• Popular dislike of Western cultures.• Extensive economic and diplomatic ties to Laconia and extra-regional

countries, to include arms imports.

Elis• Fledgling democracy.• Strong ethnic and religious

ties to Attica.• Elis’ relations with U.S. and

West have created tension with Attica.

Community of Practice CoP Battle LabsAMBL Air Maneuver Battle Lab (Ft Rucker)AMDBL Air and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Ft Bliss)BCBL-G Battle Command Battle Lab – Gordon (Ft Gordon)BCBL-H Battle Command Battle Lab – Huachuca (Ft Huachuca)FBL Fires Battle Lab (Ft Sill)MSBL Maneuver Support Battle Lab (Ft Leonard Wood)MBL Maneuver Battle Lab: Virtual Constructive Simulation Directorate

(Ft Benning)SMDBL Space and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Huntsville, AL)Sust BL Sustainment Battle Lab (Ft Lee)USASOC-FC US Army Special Operations Cmd - Futures Center (Ft Bragg)

EXCON

AMBL

X7 H

5X

FCS

MBL MBL

4X

MBL

UK12X

MBL

AS1X

7X

7X

FBL

7X

MSBL

FFID

7XX

Brigade Staff (CoP)

Theater Response Cell (CoP)

Admin & Support (BCBL-L, TRISA, CoP)Response Cells (CoP)

Fully Functional, not fully manned (BCBL-L led, CoP)

HICON, IX Corps, (BCBL-L, CoP)

TheaterSupport Cmd

JSOTF

USASOC-FC

JPOTF

USASOC-FC

TheaterIO Group

Theater Assets

Green Control

BCBL-L

Red Control

Red OperationsGround MBLRotary AMBLFW Air SMDBLFires FBLUAV AMBL/SMDBL

Tech ControlAnalysis HICON

IXXXX

CP Located at BCBL-L

Blue OperationsGround MBLAir OPS AMBLCAS FBLFires FBLUAV SMDBL/AMBLADA AMDBL

Multi-National Participation UK United Kingdom CA Canada AS Australia

205X

MED1

X

SUST

4 CAX

Experiment Architecture

Omni Fusion SIMEXWeek 2 (20 – 24 July 09)

Time (EDT)

Time (CDT)

Game Time Mon: 20 Jul 09 Tues: 21 Jul 09 Wed: 22 Jul 09 Thu: 23 Jul 09 Fri: 24 Jul 09 Sun: 26 Jul 09

0800 0700 31/5/17

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1130 1030Survey Window

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Staff Leader Time Next Day Prep

Survey Window

Simulation Run

Survey Window

Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash

EXCON Meeting

Week #2 Ends

OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM (WEEK #2)

SIM

ULA

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No Activities Scheduled

Prep Time

Participants Arrive / Logged On Distributed Sites Readiness ReportPREP

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No Activities Scheduled

Final Staff and Tech Support Preparations

Conduct CUB

EXCON Meeting


Omni Fusion SIMEXWeek 3 (27 – 31 July 09)

Time (EDT)

Time (CDT)

Game Time Mon: 27 Jul 09 Tues: 28 Jul 09 Thu: 30 Jul 09 Fri: 31 Jul 09 Sat: 1 Aug 09 Sun: 2 Aug 09

0800 0700 1/6/17

0830 0730

0900 0800

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OF09 ENDEX

Victory Party

Havana Beach Club

SIMEX PAUSE

EXCON Meeting

Survey Window

Staff and Tech Support Preparation

SIMEX RECORD RUNSurvey Window


Staff Leader Time

Travel

Post Experiment Initial Insights Brief

Recognition and Closing Remarks

OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM (WEEK #3)

Wed: 29 Jul 09

Showcase Day

Prep Time

Participants Arrive / Logged On Distributed Sites Readiness Report Arrive In Seats

Travel

Final Surveys

PREP

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‘Design’ within OMNI FUSION 09

• ‘Design’ (after several regenerations)– Formerly known as ‘Commander’s Appreciation and

Campaign Design’, TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500– ‘A cognitive model intended for use by commanders

charged with designing, planning, and executing military campaigns.’

– ‘An approach to critical and creative thinking that enables a commander to create understanding about a unique situation and on that basis, to visualize and describe how to generate change.’

• For more, see the OMNI FUSION blog: http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/blog/blogs/bcbl/

http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/blog/blogs/bcbl/


Canadian Army Participants Response to ‘Design’ in OF09• ‘Design’ will be a valuable procedure for the military• Difficulties at OF09 replicating suitable conditions for

‘design’• Lack of ‘richness’ in the OF09 scenario – depth of

detail on social factors, including role players• Lack of mature understanding across the coalition force• Design principles seem useful down to tactical level,

but different ‘design structures and procedures’ may evolve at different level of headquarters

• Canada will propose a Project Team on ‘Design’ within the ABCA Armies’ Programme: armies of America (incl. USMC), Britain (incl. RM), Canada, Australia, and New Zealand


The Role of Operational Research/Operational Analysis

• Remember: ‘The application of simple models in a complex environment’ 26ISMOR Sub-theme #2

• Remember: ‘All models are wrong, but some models are useful.’ – George Box

• Review past successes in complex environments when tackling wicked problems


Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods

• Four Characteristics:1. Every situation is a ‘human situation’ with people

taking ‘purposeful action’2. Many interpretations of any declared purpose

(choices must be made and declared)3. There will be a huge number of human activity

models which could be built (which are relevant?)4. Many perspectives or viewpoints on the model(s)

• Rich Pictures• Other Diagramming Methods

Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)


Rich Pictures

• See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice: Diagramming http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm

http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm

Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)


Some Other Tools Associated with Operational Research

• Critical Thinking– Devil’s Advocates and Red Teaming– ‘Everyone’s a Critic’

• Creative Thinking– Learning Organizations– Example: Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats

• Conceptual Models– Influence Diagrams and System Dynamics

Modelling– Social Network Analysis


Influence Diagrams and Feedback Loops

• See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice: Diagramming http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm

http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm

A Complex Problem and System Dynamics

Source: Based on testimony of Jay W. Forrester at the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, on October 7, 1970 (Forrester, 1995)


Data, Statistical Analysis, and Metrics

• Measures of Effectiveness and Stability Indicators– In Canadian Forces doctrine, many of these were derived from

examples used in Bosnia• Opinion Surveys in Operational Theatres• Metrics for Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations

– Outlined for the Canadian Army in Doctrine• Civil-Military Cooperation in Peace, Emergencies, Crisis

and War B-GG-005-004/AF-023, Jan 1999• Counter-Insurgency Operations B-GL-323-004/FP-003,

Dec 2008 – Outlined for the US in Doctrine

• Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24, Dec 2006 • Stability Operations Field Manual 3-07, Oct 2008


Kandahar Surveys: Sample of Results• First comprehensive poll of the Afghan population of

Kandahar Province • Conducted 14-28 March 2007 by 56 Afghan interviewers

from ACSOR Surveys (Afghan-American joint venture)• 1287 interviews across 18 Districts of Kandahar Province• Most interviews conducted in Pashto (others in Dari)• Women interviewed by female interviewers

Extract from Cameron Presentation at 24ISMOR, 2007


Conclusion

• Military clients are stumbling into areas where operational research has been before them… though in other contexts

• The Operational Research and Analysis community needs an action plan:

1. Determine the Military Stakeholders and Requirement2. Inventory Suitable Operational Analysis/Research

Methods3. Collaborate with Military Sponsors4. Experiment and Initiate Cyclical Development: Act,

Sense, Decide… about the Design procedures


References

• Stefan Banack “Educating by Design: Preparing Leaders for a Complex World” Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009, pp. 96-104

• Stefan Banach and Alex Ryan, “The Art of Design: A Design Methodology” Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009, pp 105-115

• Peter Checkland, “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective” Systems Research and Behavioral Science 17, S11–S58 (2000)

• Chief of Force Development, The Strategic Advisory Team Afghanistan, Canadian Forces Joint Doctrine Note 02/08, Ottawa, May 2008

• West Churchman, “Wicked Problems”, Management Science, 14:4, Dec 1967, pp. B-141-142• Jay Forrester, “Counterintutive Behavior of Social Systems”, 1995, http

://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf (accessed 7 Aug 2009)• Anne-Marie Grisogono and Alex Ryan, “Operationalising Adaptive Campaigning”

Proceedings of International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, June 2007 http://www.dodccrp.org/events/12th_ICCRTS/ (accessed 7 Aug 2009)

• Walter Natynczyk “Keynote Address: Actionable Statistics” in Proceeding of Cornwallis Group X (Ted Woodcock, ed.), March 2005, http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php

• Naveh Shimon, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: Evolution of Operational Theory, Taylor & Francis, 1997

• Michel-Henri St-Louis, “The Strategic Advisory Team in Afghanistan” Canadian Military Journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2009

• Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice Operational Design”, Joint Forces Quarterly, 53, Spring, 2009, pp 61-68

• Milan Vigo, “A Case Against Systemic Operational Design”, Joint Forces Quarterly, 53, Spring, 2009 69-75

http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf

http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf

http://www.dodccrp.org/events/12th_ICCRTS/

http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php

Campaign Design and Omni Fusion 09

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