Cameroon Country presentation

Social Protection for Inclusive Growth: Case Study for Cameroon

Arsene NkamaUNDP, Yaounde Cameroon

The Plan of Presentation

• 1. Context, Development Trends and Fiscal Space• 2. Social Protection Profile in Cameroon• 3. Social Protection Policies and Schemes in

Cameroon• 4. Estimating Social Protection Benefits and Cost in

Cameroon: the ILO Social Protection floor work• 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability• 6. Conclusion and Recommendation

1. Context, Development Trends and Fiscal Space

• Cameroon is richly endowed with natural resources, human resources and a diversified production activity.

• However, Cameroon’s potential failed to exhibit higher returns to economic development.


• From independance to the end of 70s– Rapid real economic growth: about 6%.– Growth rate over passed the average annual

population growth rate (about 3%).– Average annual increase in private consumption:

2%– Period marked by five year planning policy

centered on Agriculture productivity and rural development


• Oil-led boom period: end of 70s-mid 80s– Growth led by oil;– Traditional growth sectors’ carelessness, hence the decline in

their productivity;– Poverty headcount: 40% in 1984

• The economic crisis /adjustment period: (1986 – 1994)– Sharp decline in world market prices for cocoa, coffee and oil;– Real GDP declined by an annual of about 4% per cent from 1986

to 1994;


• The economic crisis /adjustment period: (continued)– Real per capita income decreased on average by nearly

7%;– External debt rose, from 39% of GDP in 1986 to 65 per

cent in 1992 and 105% of GDP in 1994 (as a result of CFA franc devaluation);

– Poverty increased in 1996: 53%– Unsuccessful internal adjustment policies led to Bretton

Woods institutions assistance between 1988 and 1994.


Sources: Own estimations based on EBC83/84; E 1-2-3 1993; ECAM1; ECAM2; ECAM3;

1964 1983 1993 19960

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

196000

454000

209000

104000

Yaounde: per capita consumption in 1983 CFA Francs


• The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Period: 2003 – 2008– The main objective of Cameroon's PRSP was to

boost the country's real economic growth from around 4% in 2003 to about 8%, the minimum necessary to achieve the MDGs;

– The implementation of the PRSP has been disappointing, leading to lower growth compared to projections;

– Poverty declined to 40% but inequalities rose.


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

croissance observée du PIBcroissance recherchée par le DSRP


• The Growth and Employment Strategy Period: 2009 – 2020– The GES is the first phase of ten years of the

implementation of the country Vision 2035 (Cameroon being an emergent country by 2035).

– The GES is center on three important strategies: • a growth strategy;• an employment strategy;• a management strategy.

1. Context and Development Trends

• To sum up,

• All development episodes are characterized by high underemployment rate (75% in 2010).

• Growth has been weak, non employment-based, less cross-sectors based, and relatively less shared. For this reason, it has not been inclusive.

• Social protection could be a channel to make Cameroon’s growth inclusive.

2. Social Protection Profile in Cameroon

• Legal Protection- Cameroon’s Constitution;

Preamble Article 26; Article 45

- An important number of national texts; - International Agreements;


Social Protection

Social Insurance

CNPS

Ministry of Finance

Social Assistance

State

Private Sector

Households

Development Partners

• Institutional Protection


• Social Protection coverage– National institutions cover 7 of the 9 ILO branches of

social security as defined by convention 102. Unemployment benefits and health benefits are not covered.

– The seven branches served by national institutions cover only 10% of active population.

– The 10% of the population covered are in 90% non poor (ECAM2007).


• Basic social security guarantees of social protection floor in Cameroon– Familial allocations are served at 1800 CFA francs

per child and per month (less than 10% of the national poverty line); benefits only to 2.6% of children;

– Free access to basic education in public schools;– Income security programmes for children;– Limited access to essential health care and other

goods and services;


• Basic social security guarantees of social protection floor in Cameroon (continued)

– Per capita government expenditures in health represented 17 USD in 2010 (the WHO target is 44 USD);

– Food for work (WFP) and labour intensive projects (Government and ILO);

– 15% of population aged 60 and more received pensions from CNPS or the ministry of finance.


Type of allocations 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pensions72763 89229 96168 103940 111431 119462

Family allawances 19631 20150 22797 24440 26201 28090

Total 92394 109379 118965 128380 137632 147552

Share in public budget (%) 6,0 4,9 5,2 5,6 6,5 5,7

• Evolution of social security expenditures of the public sector (in millions of CFAF)

Source : MINFI/DRH


Branches 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Family allowances 7 466 7 694 6 836 7 404 8 229 8 470

occupational accidents 1 839 1 860 1 880 3 578 3 470 4 035

Pensions 30 893 25 189 29 993 34 132 44 304 48 250

Heath actions 5 607 5 803 5 827 5 710 6 052 5 307

Total 45 805 40 546 44 536 50 824 62 055 66 062

Evolution of CNPS expenditures by branches (in thousands of CFA francs)

Source: Statistical Yearbook 2008 of CNPS


Programmes/Project Target/beneficiaries Main Actors

Access to food for school

girls and boys in high poverty

areas

More than 55 000 pupils between

2008 and 2009.

PAM, MINEDUB

Food distribution Orphans and vulnerable children

specifically those affected by HAIDS

UNICEF, CARE, CRS, AWA, Autres

ONG

Public works Youth, seasonal workers PAD-Y

(BIT, BAD), PAM

Emergency interventions Populations vulnerable in during

drought, refugees

PAM, MINADER, UNICEF

Subsidies on energy products,

food and transport

All populations MINFI

Funds transfers Abandonned Children, children of the

street, persons with disabilities, elders

and cultural minorities

MINAS

Free basic education School pupils and students in need MINSANTE, MINEDUB, MINESUP

Safety nets programmes


Programme/projet 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Access to food for boys and girls in high poverty areas

90 107 1796 1801 1796

Free basic education 1400 1600 4400 6400 6400

Fund transfers 22 112 50 50 50

Subsidies on energy products, food and transport

1600 59400 213100 76700 166700

Public works 0 0 0 3196 3196

Emergences 329 215 26109 6765 14893

Food distribution 100 100 147 147 147

Total 3541 61534 245602 95059 193182

Development partners (in%) 13,7 0,6 11,4 11,8 10

Cameroon's Government in %) 86,3 99,4 88,6 88,2 90

Safety Nets Programme Expenditures (in CFA Francs million)

Source : Rapport Banque Mondiale (2012) : « Cameroun : les filets sociaux »


• Efficiency of Social Protection Expenditure: Selected Safety Nets– Consumption expenditure of subsidized petroleum products

(% of total consumption) by quintile

Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Together

gasoline0.13 0.16 0.30 0.58 1.15 0.46

Diesel0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.13 0.03

kerosene1.67 1.66 1.31 1.06 0.68 1.27

Domestic Gas (LPG)

0.00 0.05 0.17 0.45 0.85 0.30

Source : Rapport Banque Mondiale (2012) : « Cameroun : les filets sociaux »


Region Poor Non poor TotalDouala 92,8 93,1 93,1Yaounde 100,0 92,2 92,4Adamaoua 73,2 86,4 80,8Centre 95,9 96,4 96,3East 88,1 95,0 93,7Far-North 46,6 70,5 55,5Littoral 92,2 94,9 94,2North 95,4 81,9 87,0North-Wouest 88,6 88,2 88,3Wouest 85,0 92,4 90,7South 91,1 88,3 88,8South-Wouest 83,5 86,9 86,3Total 82,3 90,9 88,9

Social Capital: A form of ProtectionProportion of people belonging to association that offer assistance

Source ECAM 3 (2007)

3. Social Protection Policies and Schemes in Cameroon

• No social protection strategy in Cameroon;

• Goverment is actually reviewing the national strategy on social protection initiated in 2004 but not finalised;

• Development partners are engaged to support Government in defining social protection policies.

4. Estimating Social Protection Benefits and Costs in Cameroon

• The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)– RAP estimates the future cost of introducing one or

more cash transfer elements of the Social Protection Floor.

– The model is based on four components: a demographic framework, a labour market model, the macroeconomic model and the general government operations models.

– Combining the four components leads to the benefits costing, the main output of RAP. The RAP is articulated as in figure below.


LABOUR MARKET MODEL

MACROECONOMIC MODELGENERAL

GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS

MODEL

BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE

SUMMARY AND RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK

Source: ILO 2012


Developing a Social Protection Floor in Cameroon: Estimated Beneficiaries

Source: ILO 2012

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

Prestations enfants scenario (1)

Pension de vieillesse scenario (1)

Age actif: Programme d'emplois publics pour les personnes en mesure de travailler scenario (2) scenario modéré

Age actif: prestation en espèce pour invalidité

Soins de santé: scenario (1)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Developing a Social Protection Floor in Cameroon: Estimated Costs (in million CFA Francs)

Source: ILO 2012

5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability

• Actual receipts can be explained by:– Actal receipts for social security (both public and

private) and;– Actual expenditures on safety nets.

• Projecting these receipts/expenditures and comparing them with ILO (2012) cost estimations gives a broad view of the existing financial gap.

5. Financing and Fiscal SustainabilityEstimated Financial Gap (in million CFA Francs)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Total recipts for social protection Total cost SPF (ILO)


• Cameroon can launch a social protection floor by 2013. Estimated receipts are higher than ILO (2012) estimated costs;

• The financial gap that appears in 2014 grows at a steady rate;

• Important new sources of funding a social protection floor are needed.


• The new consumpption behaviours (ICT products, luxury products…) could be an imporant sustainable sources of funding;

• Beside new taxes, good governance could be regarded as a key element;

• The private sector is also an important source of funding;

• Households can also play a key role.

6. Conclusion and Recommendations

• Cameroon can afford investing in a social protection floor in its earlier implementation stage;

• To do so, there is a need of coverting actual social safety nets expenditures on targeted social protection schemes;

• There is a need of extending the actual fiscal basis coupled by better resources management.

Cameroon Country presentation

Documents

Transcript of Cameroon Country presentation