Camera Phones: Handsets Hot, Prints Notkeypointintelligence.jp/pdffiles/1206/2 CP session...27 If...
Transcript of Camera Phones: Handsets Hot, Prints Notkeypointintelligence.jp/pdffiles/1206/2 CP session...27 If...
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Jill AldortSenior Consultant, InfoTrends/CAP Ventures
Camera Phones: Handsets Hot, Prints Not
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Phones are not just for calls anymore
MUSICSony Ericsson W800 “Walkman”
• MP3/AAC player•FM radio
•Built-in stereo speakers•Software to transfer music
• 2.0MP camera
GAMINGKyocera Slider Remix KX5
• Plugs into Gamepad• MP3 player
• 1.3MP cameraIMAGING
Samsung a940• 2MP camera
•2x optical/10x digital zoom•Auto focus
• Camcorder• PictBridge
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Camera wins over other next-generation applications
1091010MP3 player
9898Access online photo albums
8789Video clips
7176Email
6367Web browsing/ Internet
4455PDA function
3543Games
5634MMS
2221Camera for taking pictures
11012Text messaging
ChinaJapanWestern EuropeNorth America
Source: InfoTrends’ 2004 Mobile Imaging Multi Client
Rank of how often features on phone are used (1 = most often)
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Worldwide Camera Phone Shipments –EMEA is the Largest Region
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2005 2007 2009
North AmericaEMEAJapanAsia PacificROW
29%CAGR
370
522
847
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Asia-Pacific Closes the Gap With EMEA
40% 36% 33%
22% 29% 32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2007 2009
% o
f Uni
ts S
hipm
ents
Rest of WorldAsia-PacificJapanEMEANorth America
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
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$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$60,000$70,000$80,000$90,000
2005 2007 2009
North AmericaEMEAJapanAsia PacificROW
$45,566
$74,281
$84,396
24%CAGR
Worldwide Camera Phone Revenue –EMEA is the Largest Region
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More phones contain cameras than not
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mobile phonesCamera phones
Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments (millions)
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
2005:742m handsets
370m camera phones (50%)
2009:992m handsets
847m camera phones (85%)
2007:884m handsets
659m camera phones (75%)
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The WW handset revenue market flattens by 2010?
$45.6
$74.3
$84.4
$100
$113
$123
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
2005 2007 2009$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
HandsetrevenueAverageselling price
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
($ billions)
+63%
+14%
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5.0+ MP3.0 - 4.9 MP2.0 - 2.9 MP1.0 -1.9 MPSub-1.0 MP
69% feature 3.0+ megapixel
resolution
Worldwide Camera Phone Megapixel Resolution (% of unit shipments)
Image quality takes a giant step forwardResolution Auto focus Optical zoom
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
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• How are consumers using the camera function? • How are they sharing pictures? • How are they printing pictures? • Which consumers are capturing/sharing/printing?• What does the future look like?
Widespread availability of camera phones is apparent, but…
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Who did we survey?
• 1,881 U.S. Internet users in September 2005
• 29% Camera Phone users• 50% Female, 50% Male• $54,000 average household income• Average age: 37
– 10% under 18, 18% 18-24• 53% have children under 21 living at
home
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29% of U.S. Internet users own a camera phone
29%
24%
18%
3%
September2003
September2004
June 2005 September2005
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/03, 9/04, 6/05, 9/05 U.S. Internet User Surveys
18% are already repeat buyers
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Camera phone owners are young and techno-savvy
23%37%Wireless home network
23%41%Own iPod
49%50%Own a point & shoot DSC
3933Average age
$55K$59KHH income
51%60%Children under 21
Regular cell phone userCamera phone user
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 Camera Phone Survey
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Young camera phone owners are the most active
768101419Photos taken per month
16%19%18%19%20%26%Print
20%44%47%59%64%78%Use camera function at least once a week
15%25%15%20%35%40%Percent printed
12%
11%
23%
45-54
21%
8%
28%
35-44
28%
23%
30%
25-34
13%45%32%Primary phone is camera phone
7%27%19%Repeat buyer
14%28%41%Photo message at least once a week
18-24<18 55+
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 Camera Phone Survey
=heavy users =medium users =light users
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“Imaging” and “fun” are no longer the big sell “What motivated you to purchase a camera phone?” (multiple responses)Base=542 camera phone owners in 2005; 290 in 2004
38%
31%
38%
30%
30%
52%
19%
67%
45%
43%
38%
34%
34%
23%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
For fun
To always have a camera with me
To take spontaneous pictures
To have new technology
I selected the phone for other features and itincluded a camera
Upgraded from old cell phone
On promotion from my carrier
20052004
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/04, 9/05 Camera Phone Surveys
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Still, one-third use the camera more than any other function on their phone
3%
3%
4%
10%
32%
35%
6%
7%
7%
11%
24%
34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Webbrowsing/Internet
Downloadablemusic
Games
Text messaging
Camera for takingpictures
20042005
“What is the one feature you use most often on your camera phone, besides making or receiving phone calls?”
Base=542 camera phone owners in 2005; 290 in 2004
#1
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/04, 9/05 Camera Phone Surveys
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The percentage of camera owners who share and print photos is decreasing
42%
83%
20%
72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Print Send pictures via emailor MMS
September 2004September 2005
Percentage of camera phone owners
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/04, 9/05 U.S. Internet Surveys
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The number of images captured per person has dropped by more than half
28.7
11.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Images captured per month
September 2004September 2005
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/04, 9/05 U.S. Internet Surveys
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22%29%27% 22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Printed Sent via email or MMS
September 2004September 2005
% photos captured that are shared and printed (among those who do)
The percentage of photos shared and printed does not compensate
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/04, 9/05 U.S. Internet Surveys
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More than half of those who haven’t printed show signs of promise
No, I didn't realize I could print my camera phone images, but I would like to
20%
I tried it once or twice and won't
do it again6%
No, I have no interest in it
30%
No, I plan to but haven't tried it yet
44%
Base=396 camera phone users who do not print
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 U.S. Internet Survey
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North America Camera Phone Images Captured, Shared, and Printed
20
59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2007 20090
2
4
6
8
10
CapturedPrintedShared
The number of prints made will still increase 5x over
(billions) (billions)
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast (preliminary)
2009:6.8B (12%) shared4.6B10% printed
2005:1.7B (9%) shared1.2B (6%) printed
2007:11% shared(8%) printed
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Why will photos shared and printed increase?
1. Large volume of camera phone users who plan to print• 64% plan to/would like to print
2. Improving image quality• 90% of the installed base is still VGA quality or less
3. Lowering costs for photo messaging and printing• All-inclusive data plans• Print price competition
4. Simpler means for sharing and printing• Cross-carrier interoperability• More direct printing options
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103
282
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2007 20090
10
20
30
40
CapturedPrintedShared
The number of prints made will still increase close to 3x from 2005 to 2009
(billions) (billions)
*Source: InfoTrends’ 2005 Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast
2009:37.1B (13%) shared19.9B (7%) printed
2005:13.2B (13%) shared5.9B (6%) printed
2007:(13%) shared(6%) printed
Worldwide Camera Phone Images Captured, Shared, and Printed
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Have or will camera phones impact digital still camera usage?
??
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It already has – just slightly
Total number of digital camera pictures saved long-term
Total number of digital camera pictures printed
Total number of digital camera pictures taken
-2 -1 0 1 2
All camera phone usersOwn camera phone <=6 monthsOwn camera phone > 6 months
Decrease significantly No Change
Increase Significantly
Decrease slightly
Increase Slightly
“How has using a camera phone affected your DIGITAL CAMERA usage?”
Base=297 camera phone and DSC owners
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 Camera Phone Survey
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But most people say they are loyal to their DSCs
Neither my camera phone or DSC usage would
change32%
I would use my DSC less and my
camera phone more26%
I would take more camera phone photos, but my
DSC usage would not change
42%
“If the image quality of a camera phone was equal to the image quality of a DSC, which statement would be most true?”
Base=297 camera phone and DSC users
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 Camera Phone Survey
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If anything, future DSC sales could be positively impacted
10%
10%
18%
18%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
I am planning on buying a digital camera soonerthan I originally anticipated because I want more
functionality in my camera
I am planning on buying a digital camera soonerthan I originally anticipated because my camera
phone doesn’t offer good enough quality
I am planning on buying a digital camera soonerthan I originally anticipated because I really like
experimenting with digital photography
I am delaying the purchase of a digital camerabecause I can use my camera phone instead
Not at all
“How has your digital camera purchase timeframe changed since owning a camera phone?”
Base=188 camera phone owners who do not own a DSC
*Source: InfoTrends’ 9/05 Camera Phone Survey
38% will buy a DSC
sooner than anticipated!
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Worldwide End User Data
• Worldwide mobile imaging survey– 4,782 respondents (2,335 NA, 1,300 W.
Europe, 449 Japan, 698 China)– Conducted October 2005
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Motivation For Camera Phone Purchase
0%
20%
40%
60%
North America Western Europe Japan China
So I can always have acamera with me
I like to have new,interesting technology
I selected the phone forother features and itincluded a cameraI want to share pictureswith other people thathave a camera phoneThe service plan I selectedincluded a camera phone
For business purposes
I want to use a cameraphone instead of a film ordigital still camera
What motivated you to acquire a camera phone? (Check ALL that apply)
Percentage of respondents
N = 600 736 364 529
Source: InfoTrends 2005 Mobile Imaging Multi Client
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Digital image capture is down from 2004 to 2005
20
5
15
6 5 5
20
16
25
20
30
25
15
10
30 30
0
10
20
30
40
NorthAmerica '04
NorthAmerica '05
WesternEurope '04
WesternEurope '05
Japan '04 Japan '05 China '04 China '05
Camera phone DSC
Approximately how many pictures do you take per month with your camera phone? With your DSC?
Source: InfoTrends 2005 Mobile Imaging Multi Client
Median pictures per month
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Camera phones drive digital image capture
33% 35% 42%58%
18% 19%
27%
27%49% 46%
31%15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North America Western Europe Japan China
Nothing would change. I willcontinue using my cameraphone and other camerasfor the same amount andtypes of photos
I will use one of my othercameras less (film ordigital), and my cameraphone more
I will take more & differentphotos with my cameraphone, but use my othercameras (film or digital)about the same
If the image quality of a camera phone began to get closer to a digital still camera or film camera, which statement would be most true for you?
Percentage of respondents
N = 1636 1300 449 698
Source: InfoTrends 2005 Mobile Imaging Multi Client
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So what needs to happen to maximize the camera phone opportunity?
1. Get more people to share and print
2. Get people to share and print more
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How do we do it?
It must be easy• To take pictures• To take GOOD pictures• To share pictures• To print pictures
It must be inexpensive• To buy handsets• To share pictures• To print pictures
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Conclusions• Consumers like imaging function, but have not
changed behavior– Always have camera– Instant sharing– Quality and ease of use not meeting requirements
• Camera phones approaching critical functionality– 3 to 5 mega pixel sensor + flash + 2 to 4X optical zoom– DSC vendors continue to move up market – resolution, zoom,
flash, wireless features
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Conclusions
• DSCs and camera phones will co-exist– Form factor; consumer desire for optimized device vs. multi-function
device• Print opportunity has been limited
– Low quality images, not convenient, consumer preference to view– Not likely to change unless quality and convenience improve
• Carriers still trying to figure out how to monetize opportunity– Significant product costs– Insufficient revenue from sharing; limited print play– Other services becoming more attractive (Web, music, TV)
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Thank you!
Questions?