Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12...

77
Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE FROM A HOUSING TAX EXPERIMENT Paolo Surico Riccardo Trezzi (London Business School) (University of Cambridge) A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and yield large tax revenues. Cambridge-INET Institute Faculty of Economics

Transcript of Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12...

Page 1: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12

Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648

CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION:

EVIDENCE FROM A HOUSING TAX EXPERIMENT

Paolo Surico Riccardo Trezzi (London Business School) (University of Cambridge)

A major change of the property tax system in 2011 generated significant variation in the amount of housing taxes paid by Italian households. Using new questions added to the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), we exploit this variation to provide an unprecedented analysis of the effects of property taxes on consumer spending. A tax on the main dwelling leads to large expenditure cuts among households with mortgage debt and low liquid wealth but generates only small revenues for the government. In contrast, higher tax rates on other residential properties reduce private savings and yield large tax revenues.

Cambridge-INET Institute

Faculty of Economics

Page 2: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

Page 3: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 4: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 5: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 6: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 7: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

11th

30th

27th

24th

28th

Page 8: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

4th

22nd

27th

Page 9: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 10: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 11: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 12: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 13: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

25th

75th

Page 14: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 15: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△Ci = α+ γ · IMUmaini + δ ·△HPi + θ i + εi,

△Ci

i (△Ci = Ci,2012 − Ci,2010) IMUmaini

△HPi (△HPi = HPi,2012 −HPi,2010)

i εi i

γ

OLS γ

δ

IMUotheri

Page 16: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△Ci = α+ γ1 · IMUmaini + γ2 · IMUotheri + δ ·△HPi + θ i + εi,

γ1 γ2

Page 17: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 18: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini IMUotheri

Page 19: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△HPi

IMUmaini IMUotheri

i i

IMUmaini IMUotheri

Page 20: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini

IMUmaini

IMUotheri

△HPi

IMUtotali = IMUmaini +IMUotheri

IMUotheriIMUmaini IMUotheri

Page 21: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 22: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini IMUotheri

IMUmaini

IMUmaini IMUmaini

Page 23: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 24: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 25: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 26: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini

Page 27: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini

Page 28: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△Carsj = α+ γ1 · IMUrateMainj + γ2 · IMUrateOtherj + θ j + εj ,

Page 29: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△Carsj j IMUrateMainj

IMUrateOtherj j

θ εj

IMUmainj IMUotherj

j

IMUrateMainj

IMUrateOtherj

Page 30: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 31: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

IMUmaini

Page 32: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 33: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 34: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 38: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

010

20

Perc

ent

0 1000 2000 3000Euro

Panel (a1)

010

20

Perc

ent

0 25 50 75 100Percent

Panel (a2)

010

20

Perc

ent

0 1000 2000 3000

Euro

Panel (b1)0

1020

Perc

ent

0 25 50 75 100

Percent

Panel (b2)

Page 39: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

VAT IMU

100

102

104

106

Pric

e le

vel (

Inde

x, Ja

n '11

= 1

00)

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13Apr '11 Oct '11 Apr '12 Oct '12

Flat-VAT items index Increased-VAT items index Cars

Page 40: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

-1.5

-.5-2

.0-1

.00.

00.

5

0 1 2 3 4

Multiple of monthly income used as grouping cutoff

Higher liquid wealth households Lower liquid wealth households

Page 41: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

Mortgagors

Non mortgagors

Mortgagors

Mortgagors

Non mortgagors

Non mortgagors

020

040

060

0

Euro

('00

0) p

er h

ouse

hold

1 2 > 2

Number of dwellings

Liquid Wealth IMUtotal

Page 42: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

010

2030

Perc

ent

1 2 > 2

Number of dwellings

Net saving rate Debt service ratio

Page 43: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

-600

-400

-200

020

040

0Eu

ro p

er h

ouse

hold

2008 2010 2012

Owners non-IMU payers IMU payers Mortgagors IMU payers

Page 44: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

7080

90100

110

Percent

'10Jul '11Jan '11Jul '12Jan '12Jul '13Jan '13Jul

Page 45: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

7080

9010

0

Inde

x (2

008

= 10

0)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDP Durables Non durables Vehicles

Page 46: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

Page 47: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△△△△△

△ △ △△

Page 48: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 49: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 50: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 51: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 52: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 53: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 54: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 55: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

Page 56: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 57: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

05

1015

Percent

0 5 10 15

Page 58: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 59: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 60: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

Page 61: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

0.42

0.43

0.44

IMU

rate

s on

mai

n pr

oper

ty (p

erce

nt)

20 40 60

Votes to left-wing cohalition (percent)

Panel (a)

0.82

0.86

0.90

IMU

rate

s on

oth

er p

rope

rties

(per

cent

)

20 40 60

Votes to left-wing cohalition (percent)

Panel (b)

-3.0

0-1

.50

0.00

1.50

Nig

ht li

ghts

den

sity

gro

wth

(per

cent

)

20 40 60

Votes to left-wing cohalition (percent)

Panel (c)

-3.0

0-2

.50

-2.0

0-1

.50

Bus

ines

s in

com

e gr

owth

(per

cent

)

20 40 60

Votes to left-wing cohalition (percent)

Panel (d)

Page 62: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 63: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

-0.8

0.4

-0.4

0.8

0.0

Cha

nge

in m

unic

ipal

mar

gina

l per

sona

l inc

ome

rate

(per

cent

)

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

IMUmain rate (percent)

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

Cha

nge

in m

unic

ipal

mar

gina

l per

sona

l inc

ome

rate

(per

cent

)

0.46 0.56 0.66 0.76 0.86 0.96 1.06

IMUother rate (percent)

Page 64: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

56.258.860.260.759.559.7

1412.411.510.410.811.3

020

4060

8010

0

Perc

ent

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Home owners of one property Home owners of more than one property

9.48.910.29.29.47.72.82.521.91.92

020

4060

8010

0

Perc

ent

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mortgagors (one property) Mortgagors (more than one property)

Page 65: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 66: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 67: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 68: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

05

1015

Perc

ent

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Int. rate on consumer credit (<5k €) Int. rate on consumer credit (>5k €)Fixed rate of morgages Variable rate of mortgages

Page 69: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE
Page 70: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

△ △ △ △

Page 71: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 72: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 73: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 74: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 75: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

05

1015

Prob

abili

ty (p

erce

nt)

0 200 400 600 800 1000

IMU (Euro)

Page 76: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗

△HP

Page 77: Cambridge-INET Institute · 2017-07-24 · Cambridge-INET Working Paper Series No: 2016/12 Cambridge Working Paper Economics: 1648 CONSUMER SPENDING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: EVIDENCE

R2

R2

∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗