Cambrian School District

Measure L Post Campaign Summary

IntroductionMeasure L received 58.41% on November 2, 2010

Campaign:•Volunteers: phone banks, precinct walks, endorsements•Voter communication: direct mail, website, volunteers

Survey DataMay 2010: 71% definitely or probably Yes, 2% leaning Yes

Support varied by affiliation: •83% of Democrats•70% of Decline to State•61% of Republicans •79% of Parents

•Results presented June 2010—all Santa Clara County parcel taxes passed

Survey Data Negative Message• Existing tax decreased support to 64%

• Other messages weakened support to 67%

• Argument against

• Two newspaper stories discussed existing tax measure

Campaign StrategyCampaign “turnout and persuade” Turnout Targets: Supportive in survey; likely voters •Supporters of past Cambrian tax measures•Parents •Democrats •Seniors

Persuasion Targets•Likely Republican voters•Likely Decline to State voters

Voter Turnout and IdentificationTotal # of Registered District Voters 15,404

Total # of Votes cast for Measure L 10,003

Overall voter turnout for Measure L 64.9%

Total # of ID’s (yes, no, undecided) 4,194

Percent of registered voters ID’d by campaign 27.2%

Total # of ID’d Yes’s 2,734

Percentage of Yes’s among ID’d voters 65.2%

Percentage of ID’d Yes’s who voted 83.2%

Percentage of parents who voted 73.4%

Percentage of Democrats who voted 69.9%

Geography

Sartorette Bagby Fammatre Farnham

Turnout 68.3% 69.4% 70.5% 66.6%

Sartorette Bagby Fammatre Farnham

Yes 59.1% 61.7% 60.5% 52.8%

No 40.9% 38.3% 39.5% 47.2%

Voter Turnout

Party Democrat Republican DTS/Other

46% 31% 23%

EMC Poll Turnout Estimate

Party Democrat Republican DTS/Other

46.4% 30.8% 22.8%

Election Day Actual Turnout

Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate

Measure Measure A Healthy Kids

Measure E FHDACCD

Measure IEast Side

Measure LCambrian SD

Poll % Yes 67.0% 71.0% 71.0% 73.0%

Yes 58.76% 58.0% 57.37% 58.41%

No 41.24% 42.0% 42.63% 41.59%

Historically Unfavorable Electoral Climate

• Only 2 out of 18 school parcel tax measures passed in California (1 new $53; one renew)

• Contrast to June 2010: 6 out of 9 school parcel tax measures passed

National November 2010 Political Climate

• National– Struggling economy– Tea Party: anti-tax, anti-union, impacts to public

agencies

State Politics 2010

• Unprecedented budget deficit• Meg Whitman 34.88% in Santa Clara County– Unprecedented campaign budget, targeted all

voters, fiscal and education reform– Drove conversation to right

• Jerry Brown: no tax increase without vote, pension reform

Local November 2010 Political Climate

• District 9 City Council– Negative “Independent Expenditure” mailers– Walk pieces in Cambrian– “No new taxes” pledges

• Protracted pension fight in the City of San Jose Measures V and W

• Term limits Santa Clara Valley Water District 75% of the vote

Campaign Successes

• Campaign committee stayed on message • Phone banks/walks were consistent, well

attended • 27% of the electorate was identified • Complete and politically diverse list of

endorsements• Fundraising goals to send ample direct mail

Lessons Learned• Strong campaign couldn’t overcome

profound shift in voter opinion between June and November

• Smaller lower turnout election to avoid “noise” and target turnout

Cambrian School District

Measure L Post Campaign Summary