CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some...

5
CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS COMMENTARY 4Q 2019

Transcript of CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some...

Page 1: CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important

CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS COMMENTARY 4Q 2019

Page 2: CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important

MARKET REVIEWInternational developed equities (defined as the MSCI EAFE Index) posted a fourth-quarter gain of 8.2%, closing out 2019 with a calendar-year return of 22%. The 4Q upward trajectory in equities was in stark contrast to the selling vortex witnessed in the 2018 holiday season, as investor sentiment was buoyed by news of a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China, a continued accommodative posture by major central banks, and hopeful progress on the Brexit front with the landslide election of PM Boris Johnson.

Investment style played a material role in portfolio returns in 2019, as international growth stocks (MSCI EAFE Growth Index) outperformed the international value stocks (MSCI EAFE Value Index) counterparts by a wide margin (over 1100 basis points). Although Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important consideration to the buy decision – thus a spread of this magnitude makes it a challenge to keep pace. It is worth noting that style divergence waned in the second half of the year, thus providing a more level playing field.

The end of 2019 also brings with it the closeout of the 2010s. The cumulative 71% return for international equities over the past decade is certainly solid on an absolute basis – but seems rather lackluster when compared to the 256% return for the S&P 500 Index. The below table provides cumulative returns for the past four decades:

2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s

MSCI EAFE 70.8% 12.4% 96.9% 630.1%

S&P 500 256.7% -9.1% 432.8% 403.8%

Home country bias certainly benefited investors in the 2010s; that said, extending the timeframe a bit illustrates the virtues of diversification within one’s equity portfolio. Given the decade-by-decade change in leadership in the above table, perhaps the coming decade will bring with it an improvement in investor sentiment towards international equities.

GLOBAL EQUITY FUND4Q 2019 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception

CAMGX 8.08% 27.58% 8.23% 6.29% 9.32%

MSCI World 8.56% 27.67% 12.57% 8.74% 11.08%

Inception Date: 11.30.2011. All returns greater than one year are annualized. As of 12/31/19, Expense ratio is 1.45% (gross); 0.80% (net). Fee waivers are contractual and are in effect until March 1, 2020. Absent these waivers, total return would be reduced. The performance quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost, and current performance may be lower or higher than the perfor-mance quoted. For performance data current to the most recent month-end, please call 1-866-777-8227. The Fund imposes a redemption fee of 2.00% on shares held less than 90 days. Your return will be lower if a redemption fee is applied to your account..

The Cambiar Global Equity portfolio posted a solid gain in the quarter, while lagging the index by a modest margin. On a full year basis, Cambiar’s return was in line with the benchmark. Cambiar employs a relative value approach to stock selection; as a value temperament has been at odds with a market that has shown a disproportionate preference for growth, keeping pace with the index in 2019 was a modest victory. And while cash levels typically have a negligible impact on return over a multi-year timeframe, the portfolio’s cash

position was a detractor from return in 2019 – as any cash held was a drag, given the rally in equities.

The 4Q rally was broad-based in nature, with every sector posting a positive return. The quarter had a ‘risk on’ underpinning, with economically-sensitive sectors such as Materials and Technology pacing the market. In another example of the market’s preference for growth, tech stocks were also the leading sector – by a wide margin – on a full year basis. Healthcare was another

Cambiar Global Equity & Ultra Focus Fund Commentary | 4Q 20192

Page 3: CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important

standout performer in the quarter, while safe-haven sectors such as Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate lagged on a relative basis.

Cambiar’s holdings in the Industrials sector comprised a strong positive contribution to portfolio performance – for both the quarter as well as on a calendar year basis. Given the diffuse nature of the Industrials sector and various addressable end markets, Cambiar remains focused on companies that have a history of strong free cashflow/ROIC attributes, possess leadership positions in their respective verticals, and operate in secular growth areas of the broader industrial economy.

The Technology sector represented another bright spot for the portfolio in the quarter. At a holdings level, the standout performer was Skyworks Solutions. Skyworks is a leading semiconductor company, specializing in the design/manufacture of components that enable the critical analog functions of wireless radio technologies. Skyworks is poised to benefit from both the pending cyclical upturn in the semi cycle, as well as a secular growth opportunity via the pending ramp in 5G (fifth generation) phones. While valuations within the sector

are no longer inexpensive on a statutory basis, it is Cambiar’s view that the ‘E’ in the P/E multiples of our companies possess additional upside.

Detractors in the quarter included below-benchmark performance in the Healthcare and Communication Services sectors. Twitter was a notable laggard in the quarter, as the stock lost ground in response to a disappointing 3Q earnings report and did not participate in the 4Q upswing. Although Twitter reported above-consensus user growth (a key metric that has been a longtime knock on the company), this step forward was overshadowed by increased expenses to address a software glitch found on a new advertising product. While disappointed in this setback, Cambiar remains constructive on Twitter; the company generates strong free cashflow and has significantly improved its operating and financial performance since our attachment point in 2017. That said, the higher beta metric assigned to this stock is there for a reason, as Twitter’s price action (down and up) will tend to be more outsized in magnitude.

GLOBAL ULTRA FOCUS FUND4Q 2019 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception

CAMAX 7.89% 30.07% 2.70% 3.88% 8.58% 7.04%

MSCI World 8.56% 27.67% 12.57% 8.74% 9.47% 5.55%

Inception Date: 8.31.2007. All returns greater than one year are annualized. As of 12/31/19, Expense ratios are 1.10% (gross); 0.98% (net). Fee waivers are contractual and are in effect until March 1, 2020. In the absence of current fee waivers, performance would be reduced. The performance quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost, and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For performance data current to the most recent month-end, please call 1-866-777-8227. The Fund imposes a redemption fee of 2.00% on shares held less than 180 days. Your return will be lower if a redemption fee is applied to your account.

The Cambiar Global Ultra Focus Fund produced a strong absolute return in the fourth quarter, but slightly trailed the MSCI World Index. Despite the relative underperformance, the quarter concluded a very good year for the portfolio, with the Fund climbing over 30% in 2019 – outpacing the benchmark. Although stock selection detracted during the quarter, the Fund’s tilt toward more cyclical sectors benefited the Fund, as defensive sectors such as Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples all lagged in Q4; sectors where Cambiar remains underexposed.

The Fund’s holdings in Financials were the primary detractor in Q4, led by a decline in shares of American International Group (AIG). Despite the challenging quarter for AIG, the company was the key factor behind a strong year for the Fund in Financials, and much of the recent decline can be attributed to profit taking after an exceptional year that saw shares rise over 88%. With interest rates beginning to stabilize globally, and monetary policy normalizing, a bullish case can certainly be made for a number of names within the

Cambiar Global Equity & Ultra Focus Fund Commentary | 4Q 20193

Page 4: CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important

financial sector and the portfolio remains slightly overweight the benchmark.

While all sectors were positive for the quarter and climbed double digits for the year, Information Technology was a standout performer (rising over 47% in 2019). The Fund benefitted from both positive stock selection as well as an overweight allocation to the sector. At a holdings level, the standout performer was Skyworks Solutions. Skyworks is a leading semiconductor company, specializing in the design/manufacture of components that enable the critical analog functions of wireless radio technologies. Skyworks is poised to benefit from both the pending cyclical upturn in the semi cycle, as well as a secular growth opportunity via the pending ramp in 5G (fifth generation) phones. The adoption of 5G phones is expected to accelerate over the next two years, and Skyworks is a leading provider of 5G-enabled RF technology. Cambiar continues to have a favorable view of technology heading into 2020, and the Fund holds approximately 28% of portfolio capital in the tech sector (as of quarter-end), but is diversified across a number of industries, providing clients with exposure to a variety of return drivers.

Holdings in the Communication Services sector detracted in Q4, and one name that did not participate in the strong 4Q market upswing was Twitter. The stock lost ground in response to a disappointing 3Q earnings report. Although Twitter reported above-consensus user growth (a key metric that has been a longtime knock on the company), this step forward was overshadowed by increased expenses to address a software glitch found on a new advertising product. Higher costs and lower revenues are not a good combination, thus the negative market reaction. While disappointed in this setback, Cambiar remains constructive on Twitter; the company generates strong free cash flow and has significantly improved its operating and financial performance since our attachment point in 2017. That said, the higher beta metric assigned to this stock is there for a reason, as Twitter’s price action (down and up) will tend to be more outsized in magnitude.

As a group, Industrials was one of the top-performing sectors in the index on a full-year basis after a challenging 2018. Cambiar’s Industrial holdings outperformed in both years via positive stock selection. Given the range of returns within this diffuse sector, Cambiar remains focused on companies that have a history of strong free cashflow/ROIC attributes, possess leadership positions in their respective verticals, and

operate in secular growth areas of the broader industrial economy. The best performing name within the sector was AerCap Holdings, which climbed over 55% in 2019 after a volatile end to 2018. The air leasing company reported strong Q3 earnings driven by slightly better lease revenue but sharply higher total revenue than anticipated.

On a country/regional basis, the Fund’s relative underweight allocation to U.S. stocks was a slight headwind for the year as international equities underperformed again in 2019. The portfolio heads into 2020 with similar exposures; overweight the United Kingdom, a slight underweight to North America, overweight Europe & the Middle East (ex – UK), and no exposure to Japan.

LOOKING AHEADAs we transition into a new year (as well as a new decade), it is probably safe to assume that the strong returns delivered in the global equity markets are unlikely to be replicated in 2020. Given the somewhat non-discriminatory melt up in stocks to end the year, investors do not appear to be pricing in a lot of risk. In the aggregate, international stocks continue to trade at more reasonable levels vs. the U.S. markets (one-year forward P/E of 14x for the EAFE, vs. 18x for the S&P 500); that said, this valuation disparity has been in place for most of the current cycle.

The U.S. remains in the longest expansion in history. While pockets of opportunity exist, valuations are challenged in a number of areas, and overextension of credit is another concern. Needless to say, we do not anticipate returns to approach the levels seen over the past twelve months. 2020 may be more of a muddle-through year, with outperformance a balance of security selection and selective avoidance (vs. the rising tide environment in 2019).

Regardless of the market environment, the emphasis at Cambiar remains on identifying well-managed companies that (1) possess a durable competitive advantage via a differentiated product or service, (2) are trading at a reasonable valuation relative to their future earnings/cashflow, and (3) are not overly dependent on elevated cyclical conditions to propel returns.

We appreciate your continued confidence in Cambiar Investors.

Cambiar Global Equity & Ultra Focus Fund Commentary | 4Q 20194

Page 5: CAMBIAR GLOBAL EQUITY & ULTRA FOCUS FUNDS … · Cambiar’s investment discipline provides some degree of opportunism to invest in growth companies, price sensitivity is an important

DISCLOSUREMutual fund investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, investments in smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility. The funds may invest in derivatives, which are often more volatile than other investments and may magnify the Fund’s gains or losses. Diversification may not protect against market risk. A company may reduce or eliminate its dividend, causing loses to the fund.

To determine if a Fund is an appropriate investment for you, carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund’s summary or full prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 1-866-777-7227 or by visiting our website at www.cambiar.com. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The MSCI EAFE® Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Value Index captures large and midcap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Growth Index captures large and midcap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The MSCI indices are unmanaged and compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International. The MSCI indices returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market-value weighted index, with each stock’s weight in the Index proportionate to its market value. The S&P 500 returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses.

As of 12.31.19 the Cambiar Global Equity Fund had a 2.0% weighting in Skywork Solutions and 2.1% in Twitter. The Global Ultra Focus Fund had a 4.8% in AerCap, 4.3% in AIG, 2.1% in Skywork Solutions, and 3.9% in Twitter.

Beta – a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of an individual stock in comparison to the unsystematic risk of the entire market.

ROIC – Return on Invested Capital is a calculation used to assess a company’s efficiency at allocating the capital under its control to profitable investments.

This material represents the portfolio manager’s opinion and is an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice or a specific recommendation of securities.

Cambiar Funds are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with Cambiar Investors LLC or its affiliates. SEI Investments Distribution Co., 1 Freedom Valley Drive, Oaks, PA, 19456.

Cambiar Global Equity & Ultra Focus Fund Commentary | 4Q 20195