Calving Pattern- The Most ImportantDecision on Your Farm?

October 24th 2017

Joe Patton, Teagasc Dairy KT Dept.

Joe.patton@teagasc.ie

Presentation Outline

• Background – trends in calving & fertility 2012-17

• Effects of altering calving pattern at the herd level

• Calving pattern guidelines for liquid milk contract herds

• Altering calving pattern to change manufacturing milk profile

• Summary and conclusions

Trends in Winter Milk Herds 2012-17

Comparing Liquid and Manufacturing Farms by Processor- 2016

2016 DataGlanbia Aurivo LacPatrick Arrabawn

Liquid Manu Liquid Manu Liquid Manu Liquid Manu

Milk Solids 405 372 433 363 428 379 405 352

Yield 5344 4796 5658 4636 5767 5106 5358 4526

Protein % 3.42 3.51 3.35 3.41 3.27 3.28 3.34 3.42

Calving Int. 415 385 415 400 414 414 406 388

2 yr. calving 32 62 36 48 35 35 37 56

Herd EBI 39 68 31 56 7 7 43 64

EBI 2016 bulls 209 261 193 216 189 189 185 196

• Liquid herds had higher annual milk volume + solids output per cow across processors

• Volume-driven as Fat + Protein content approx 0.12 to 0.15% lower in liquid herds

• May reflect more days in milk per lactation as well as higher yield per lactation day

• Mean 415kg milk solids per cow is below benchmark target for spring herds

• Longer calving interval reflects a less structured calving pattern

• Recycling cows between seasons, protracted spring calving patterns

• Traditionally less emphasis on fertility traits in breeding programme

• Manufacturing herds with poor fertility often mislabelled as ‘winter milk’

Positive Trends in Milk and Fertility Performance 2011-2016

Glanbia Liquid Herds 2011-2016

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Milk Solids 380 376 382 396 405 409

Fat% 3.85 3.86 3.87 3.96 3.95 4.01

Pro% 3.29 3.3 3.32 3.37 3.43 3.42

Calving Interval 431 428 424 423 418 415

Heifers @ 24 months 21 23 24 28 27 32

AI bred Heifers 17 16 16 16 17 16

Aurivo Liquid Herds 2011-2016

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Milk Solids 418 425 408 424 430 433

Fat% 3.85 3.86 3.94 3.92 4.02 4.1

Pro% 3.29 3.31 3.3 3.33 3.41 3.34

Calving Interval 431 430 418 416 419 414

Heifers @ 24 months 26 26 28 31 34 36

AI bred Heifers 18 17 18 12 12 15

Developments in ROI calving pattern 2013 to 2016

• 201,000 additional cows

• 95% extra cows calving Jan to April

• Effect on winter supply?

• Static/slight decline in Autumn calving

• October up

• Sep, Nov, Dec down

• Summer calving very small % nationally

• Higher % on liquid herds

• Over 100% of extra dairy heifers are Feb born

• Implications for autumn heifer supply

• Factors

• Increasing spring herd scale

• Heifer synchrony

• EBI

• New entrants

• Winter herds conversion/adjustment

Effects of Altering Calving Pattern

Calving Pattern: a key decision for liquid milk farms

Profit

ConcentrateInput

Milk Profile

Infrastructure

Costs

YoungStock

Labour

Input

ForageBudget

Calving Pattern must not become a consequence of poor herd fertility

• Feed cost per month of calving relative to February (100%) as reference month• Days at grass during peak lactation

• Pasture quality v nutrient demand for milk production• Pasture availability v total DM intake capacity• Concentrate cost to balance diet

• Change to feed budget cost is the most significant calving pattern effect• Effect is 1.9 to 2.2cpl annualised for the situations shown- unavoidable cost• Spread calving patterns often cause further feeding inefficiencies

• Late spring calvers tend to have high peak and low persistency

• Poor synchrony between feed quality and milk yield potential

• Late autumn calving may suit higher yielding cows better

• Implications for annual milk supply totals and supply pattern

Month LitresNov-Feb

Apr 1680

Jun 2245

Aug 2780

Oct 3155

Oct/Nov calving cows• Similar feed costs to

summer calving cows• Higher milk output in

winter period• Lower overall cost to

supply fixed contracts

Labour Technical Efficiency- Effects of Calving Pattern

• Increase rate of technical and work efficiency by:

• Streamlining the number of critical decisions & tasks

• Reducing the complexity of those decisions & tasks

Other Effects of Calving Pattern: Producer Opinion

Calving Period Advantages Disadvantages

Feb – Apr • Overall costs• Use of autumn grass• Calves out younger age• Easy manage dry cows

• Busy period

May – Aug • Fill winter contracts withoutautumn calving

• Low value calves• Low solids in summer• Over-conditioned dry cows• Summer mastitis• Low fertility

Sep-Nov • Calving outside• High yield per cow in winter• Second Peak on grass• Strong calves

• Calf rearing costs

May to August calving cows do not fit into optimal calving patterns

Calving Pattern Guidelines for Liquid Herds

Calving Pattern Measures

Start Split

Spread Slippage

OptimalPattern

Targets for Optimum Calving Pattern

Guideline Targets Comment

Start Spring: Late Jan - early FebAutumn: Mid-Sep to Mid-Oct- varies slightly with contract

• Spring start date relatively fixed• Higher liquid milk % herds start earlier in

Autumn

Split Depends on milk contractsCalculate per farm

• Meet target volumes in winter• Maximize calving in hi-margin months

Spread • Calving >75 % in 6 weeks• 50% in first 3 weeks• <5% May to Aug inclusive

• Max cows calving close to optimal day• Heifers synchronized – 24 month calving• Reduced risk of slippage

Slippage • <385 day calving interval• <10% recycled cows• Cull empties

• Reduce milk losses per cow• Culling risk• High EBI heifers coming through

Calving Pattern Guidelines for a liquid contracted herd

Liquid Contract

Calving Month 25% 50% 70%

Jan - - -

Feb 52 40 25

Mar 24 20 15

Apr 8 10 5

May - - -

Jun - - -

Jul - - -

Aug - - -

Sep - - 30

Oct 8 16 20

Nov 5 12 5

Dec 3 4 -

Autumn % 16 30 55

Monthly calving for different liquid milk contracts

To meet winter contracts additional to liquid litres:

An extra 8-10 October calving cows are needed for every 5000litres per month of winter contract volumes (Oct to Mar )

• Maximise milk revenue over feed• Meet contract volumes per month

• Spring calving centred on February• Block pattern to reduce late calving• Genetics plus feeding correct• No recycling to autumn

• Autumn calving centred on October• > 50% commence earlier in Sept• Block pattern to maximise milk output• Minimize recycled cows

• Viability of calving very small numbers to meetcontracts should be questioned

• Total bonus revenue v additional cost

Altering Calving Pattern to ChangeManufacturing Milk Profile?

Altering Calving Pattern to Change Manufacturing Milk Profile

• Post quota- expansion of peak milk output in April to June

• Implications for industry peak processing capacity

• Winter volumes & quality/processability

Create incentive to change calving pattern??

• ‘May suit some farms – already in the system’

• ‘Extra cash flow in winter’

• ‘Make use of late calvers’

• ‘Flatten the curve’ by calving some cows out of season

• ‘Fresh’ milk at high lactose content, low SCC

Comparing Spring, Autumn and 50:50 Split Calving- Johnstown Herd

Spring Split Autumn

Milk kg per cow 6099 6731 7108

Milk Solids kg 470 517 545

Conc. kg per cow 469 1032 1370

0.08 0.15 0.19

Conc. Cost cpl 2.32 4.75 5.97

Spring Split Autumn

Overheads €/cow - +104 +91

Labour/ €cow - +56 +49

High EBI cowsHigh solids +2cpl above baseGrass management similarFeed principles similarHigh grass utilisation per ha targeted

Scaled Up- Seasonality Effects at Peak 500 Herd Milk Pool Example

Calving Pattern Spring Split Autumn

Description 100% Feb-Apr 50% Feb-Apr50% Sep-Nov

100% Sep-Dec

Peak Volume per herd 2798 2461 2150

Daily Litres total 1,399,000 1,230,000 1,074,000

Plant Capacity t/hr 8.5 7.5 6.5

Product tonnes @ peak mths - -1037 -2002

% of Annual Total -2.77% -5.4%

Changing calving pattern moved 2.8 and 5.4% of product from peak

Seasonality Effect in Winter- 500 Herd Milk Pool Example

Calving Pattern Spring Split Autumn

Description 100% Feb-Apr 50% Feb-Apr50% Sep-Nov

100% Sep-Dec

Winter Volume per herd

Oct-Feb % 20.3 39.4 55.4

Dec-Jan % 1.8 16.0 28.6

500 herds Equivalent

Oct-Feb tonnes 6754 14,580 21,641

Changing calving pattern moves 2x to 3x milk into winter months

Comparing Spring, Autumn and 50:50 Split Calving Systems

Spring Split Autumn

Milk kg per cow 6099 6731 7108

Milk Solids kg 470 517 545

Conc. kg per cow 469 1032 1370

0.08 0.15 0.19

Conc. Cost cpl 2.32 4.75 5.97

Off-season systems reduced margin per cow before bonusFull cost of labour included

Larger drop in relative margin at lower milk prices

Small effect at peak supply, large increase in winter litres

Profile shift must add enough net value to offset farm costsOtherwise winter bonus subsidising lower margin systems

Margin diff € per cow (after labour)

Base cpl Spring Split Autumn

26 -200.75 -178.84

30 Ref -173.40 -133.99

34 -146.13 -90.20

Summary and Conclusions

• Fertility and milk solids beginning to move in liquid milk herds

• 100% of new cows in Feb-Apr

• Feed budget cost is the key factor in optimal calving month

• Across a range of scenarios Feb is lowest, Aug highest cost

• Summer calving = high feed cost but lower winter yield

• Spread calving increases labour and complexity on-farm

• Target high 6-week calving rates

• Match calving split to contract- 25% in Autumn for 50% contract

• Peak and winter supply are separate but related issues

• Clarity needed on cost-benefit of price schemes for non-liquid winter milk