Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08) Threat to...

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007

The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08)

Threat to Roadway Lifelines: Mw 7.8 on theSouthern San Andreas Fault

Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.U. S. Geological Survey

Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project

August 24, 2007Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting

Caltrans District 8

The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08)

Threat to Roadway Lifelines: Mw 7.8 on theSouthern San Andreas Fault

Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D.U. S. Geological Survey

Leader, So. San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Project

August 24, 2007Caltrans Seismic Advisory Board Meeting

Caltrans District 8

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey


Caltrans SAB report (Dec. 2003)

Race to Seismic Safety

“Are California’s roadways earthquake-safe?”

“Develop and implement actions that foster the rapid, effective, and economic response to and

recovery from damaging earthquakes”

Recomendation #7: Emergency Response:

“Caltrans should maintain its rapid response capability to evaluate, repair and restore…”

sections on fault rupture and ‘fling’


ShakeOut - San Andreas Mw7.8

QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Courtesy of Rob Graves, URS

QuickTime™ and aCinepak decompressor

are needed to see this picture.


Short periods best from NGA combination

Long periods best from physics-based simulation

Courtesy of Rob GravesCourtesy of Ned Field and Nitin Gupta


Long-period structures such as bridges susceptible to distant long-period and

sustained shaking

Surface faulting where fault crosses freeways and major highways can damage

roadway and engineered fills

Caltrans is our first major ShakeCast user - Loren Turner

Intent is to test ShakeOut scenario through CISN Display as if a real earthquake has occurred, then use ShakeCast to assess and

prioritize shaking damage

Caltrans has demonstrated commitment to reducing seismic vulnerability and is the best organization to lead monitoring of fault-crossing lifeline infrastructure

(others private; data?)

Caltrans special considerations


San Andreas - need to instrument major

lifeline infrastructure crossings


Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault

crossings


FEMA report series (1991-1992)


ShakeOut Mw 7.8 Surface OffsetsSUBJECT TO REVISION (KMD v. 1.1.0; 5/12/07)

Lifeline

Crossing:

Fault Slip

(meters)

Duration of Disruption (days)

Gorman (I-5) 0

(landslide - Pyramid)

15

Palmdale

(Route 14)

2.6 10

Cajon Pass

(I-15)

4.4

(low end of range)

35

(FEMA, 1991)

Whitewater 1.7 5

Indio (I-10) 7.3 10


Caltrans I-10 at Indio

Fault slip of7.3 metersis expected;significantafterslip


Caltrans I-10 and Rt. 62

Faultslip oneach of 2 strandsmay beexpected


Cajon Pass lifelines


Cajon Pass - critical lifeline crossing

Currently USGS has no real-time seismic or GPS instrumentation at this location


Cajon Pass I-15 Fault Crossing


Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School

Prototype GPS fault slip sensor

Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California

Need robust GPS at all key lifeline crossings

Desirable to include seismic with GPS


San Andreas - need to at least instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings

GPS & accelerometer arrays - no funding has yet been identified for an operational system


Proposal - zipper array for early warning and immediate finite-fault source for San Andreas and

San Jacinto fault ‘Big Ones’

IOC - 36 quadrilaterals shown @ 30 km spacing (shown)FOC - 100 quads @ 10 km spacing ($5 M init. + $1 M/yr)


SoSAFE is under way (SCEC paleoseismology)B4 LiDAR Project completed; data openly available

SCEC funds distributedUSGS NEHRP RFP deadline &NSF proposal preparations

MW 7.8 earthquake scenario has been specifiedhttp://urbanearth.usgs.gov/

3 levels of rupture description detail made availablenext-generation attenuation relation models done - to be input to

HAZUSground motion simulations in progress

Slip at Lifelines Fault Crossings has been specified (v 1.1.0)

economic modeling to be conductedworkshops with lifeline operators (May & Oct. 2007)

Multi-hazard triggered events to be included

in the scenario

ShakeOut exercise - November 13, 2008 @ 10:00 a.m. - “GG08”


What can I do to prepare my lifeline?

Improve engineering at lifeline crossing points (retrofit and mitigate) to reduce down-time and to avert ecological and environment impacts

Stockpile materials on-site that will be needed to make repairs quickly; develop a plan for repairs

Instrumentation for automated damage assessment

Alaska Pipeline: $3M invested prior, >$100M savedAlaska Pipeline: $3M invested prior, >$100M saved


Ken Hudnut

DOI / U. S. Geological Survey

525 S. Wilson Ave.

Pasadena, CA 91106

(626)583-7232

Cell: (626)672-6295

[email protected]

Caltech CE Seminar - Jan. 25, 2007 The November 13, 2008 ShakeOut Exercise (GG’08) Threat to...

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