1. All of these factors have led to a stock price collapse for essentially all oil and natural gas companies. Between midSeptember and early October, shares in Chesapeake Energy, one of the biggest U.S. independents, fell to less than $17, from $40. During that same time, Exxon Mobil fell to just over $62, from $75. And yet and yet some of the best minds in the energy business insist that this latest bear market is only baiting the trap for a huge price run-up that will likely come around 2015. And despite all of the current turmoil they may end up being right. Before going further, I readily admit that I have, for several years, had a rather flippant attitude toward peak oil. When asked my opinion, I would generally respond: so what? My rationale being, we will only know that weve hit peak oil when the event has actually passed. And second, regardless of prices or supplies, we will only move away from oil when something else comes along that is cheaper/cleaner/more convenient, or all of the above. Thus, Ive long felt that all the fretting about peak oil has been largely misplaced and that even if the peak were imminent, there would be little that the U.S. or any other country could do to avoid the difficult energy transitions that are looming. That said, Ive spent a good bit of time over the past couple of months talking to two of the sharpest analysts in the oil business: Peter Wells and Charley Maxwell. And both are convinced that peak oil is real, its coming, and the pain that will accompany its arrival will be severe. Who are these guys? Wells has a Ph.D. in geology and three decades of experience in the global oil industry. He has worked extensively in the Middle East, Russia, West Africa, and Europe, and is an expert on the oil politics and geology of Iran and Iraq. He spent 12 years with Shell International, 4 with BP, and 6 with LASMO, the British oil and gas independent, where he led the companys business development efforts in the Mideast, including Iran. In 2001, he helped start Neftex, a British oil consulting firm. Since 2005, he has been a consultant to Toyota, developing world oil supply and price forecasting models. I have known Wells since 2005 and heard him speak several times. His presentation on September 23 during a sustainable mobility seminar sponsored by Toyota in Portland, Oregon motivated me to write this piece. Maxwell has been in the oil business for more than 50 years, beginning with a stint at Mobil Oil in 1957. In 1968 he began working as an energy securities analyst. Since 1999, he has been a senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. Now 76 and showing no signs of slowing down, Maxwell has become one of the most quoted analysts in the business. In the September 8 issue of Barrons, Maxwell predicted that due to ongoing demand growth, and lackluster supply additions that include the new Saudi fields at Khurais, Shaybah, and Nuayyim, the price of oil will reach about $300 per barrel by 2015. I have heard Maxwell speak several times since 2002, and talked to him at length on September 25, when he summarized his view of the future by saying, We have gone on an unsustainable energy course. Of course, there is a multitude of other analysts whove been studying peak oil and making dire predictions, including Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes. What sets Wells apart from the pack of alarmists is that he has done the deep and dirty analysis of individual field production data. In fact, Wells utilized field output info supplied by Denver-based consulting firm I.H.S., which owns one of the worlds most extensive oilfield databases. This same field-by-field data was utilized in 2006 by an I.H.S. subsidiary, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), to come up with their study on future global oil production, which claimed that global output could reach an undulating plateau of 130 million barrels per day by 2030. The study concluded that the peak oil argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future. The study also claimed that the remaining global oil resource base is about 3.74 trillion barrels. Wells took the same data and came up with a far different conclusion. He estimates that global liquids output will peak in about 2015 at no more than 100 million barrels per day. And thats when things will get very interesting for automakers like Toyota and, of course, for the rest of us. Wellss work on peak oil began in 2003, which led him to publish a piece in the Oil and Gas Journal in 2004. Looking back at that initial work, Wells says that his prediction at the time was that the peak in global liquids output would likely come at a level of about 95 to 110 million barrels per day, somewhere between 2020 and 2035, depending on OPEC reserves and OPECs willingness/ability to invest in new capacity. When he began his consulting work for Toyota in 2005, Wells decided on a bottom up approach using the I.H.S. database and Neftexs own data for the U.S. He then disaggregated all of the potential sources of oil conventional crude, NGLs, tar sands, shale oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, etc. so that he could look at their growth potential on a segment-by-segment basis. The I.H.S. data included field-by-field information as well as production information for the former Soviet Union, the U.S., all of the OPEC members, and all non-OPEC producers. Among his most important conclusions is that non-OPEC production is peaking this year. That is in line with analyses done by the E.I.A. and by John S. Herold Inc., on the non-OPEC producers and the major international oil companies. During his presentation in Portland, Wells said that the world is near the halfway point with regard to oil reserves. That is, we have produced about 1 trillion barrels of oil and theres about 1 trillion barrels left to produce. But the problem is that new discoveries are not keeping pace with demand. World peak exploration success was hit in 1960, said Wells. Today, as countries like China, India and others grow their economies, demand is outstripping the oil industrys ability to find new reserves to feed that demand. And that can be seen by looking at spare capacity. In the mid-1980s, the world had a peak in spare capacity, with some 10 million barrels per day of excess production capability. Predictably, that spare capacity led to a price collapse that persisted until the first years of this century, a period during which, according to Wells, the floor price of oil was largely set by the spending needs of the Saudi government. Today, and for the foreseeable future, supply and demand will be in much tighter alignment, with Wells seeing excess capacity growing slightly this year and next to about 2 MMbbl/d. The tight spare capacity exacerbates several other factors. The peak in non-OPEC production means that future production must come from OPEC members. Thats a problem. Saudi Arabia stands alone as the player with the resources, technical skill, and desire to increase production in a meaningful way in the near term. The other major OPEC members with big resources Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Nigeria all face political constraints that will limit their ability to add large Copyright CALSTARTincrements of new production. 2009

2. Read some of the quotes from the whitehouse website here Copyright CALSTART 2009 3. 2008-12-02 : EU To Cut Car Emissions by 18% Before 2015? DESCRIPTION - Provisional deal reached disappoints environmentalists... CONTENT - Brussels, Belgium, December 2, 2008 - European Union representatives today provisionally agreed to a compromise plan to require carmakers to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18 percent by 2015, reports Reuters. The new requirements equate to a standard rate of no more than 130 grams of carbon dioxide per km. Environmentalists expressed concern that the automakers had too much influence on the process, thereby weakening the regulations and pushing back the timeline. "The car industry has been driving negotiations all along and EU politicians have been happy to sit in the passenger seat," Greenpeace campaigner Franziska Achterberg said. The original plan called for compliance by 2012. Even with a few more years to meet the requirements, the fees are steep for non-compliance, according to Reuters, 'Monday's deal sees tough fines of 95 euros ($119.80) per gram per car sold for automakers that miss their target by a long way, but those that overshoot by less than three grams face modest sanctions of between 5 and 25 euros.' The new rules must pass the European Parliament and all 27 nations to become law. EU adopts 10 percent mandate http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=3140 Feb 09, Biodiesel Magazine By Susanne Retka Schill The European Union turned voluntary goals into mandatory requirements when it adopted the Renewable Energy Directive issued by the European Parliament on Dec. 17. A 10 percent mandate for renewable content in transportation fuels is part of the new 20-20-20 plan that calls for a 20 percent cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for all energy compared with 1990 levels, a 20 percent increase in the use of renewable energy and a 20 percent cut in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, all by 2020. Transportation fuels, including biofuels, electricity and hydrogen, are included in the 20 percent increase in renewable energy usage. The 10 percent mandate for renewable content in transportation fuels was set after much discussion over lowering the target. It replaces the voluntary targets of 5.75 percent by 2010 and 10 percent by 2020, which were adopted in a 2003 policy.Copyright CALSTART 2009 4. Copyright CALSTART 2009Expand this using EPA webinar slides. Look into current process. 3-5 more slides 5. On Climate Change, Henry Waxman Wants Congress to Act Now The House Energy Committee chair says his panel should pass a bill to curb emissions by Memorial Day By Katherine Skiba , Amanda Ruggeri Posted March 11, 2009 US News & World Rpt http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/energy/2009/03/11/on-climate-change-henry-waxman-wants-congress-to-act-now.html He battled Big Tobacco and fought for the "nutrition facts" label now carried on food products. And he became a household name after leading hard-hitting congressional probes into tough subjects: from waste and fraud in Iraq reconstruction and steroids in baseball to the coverup of the friendly-fire death of Army Ranger Pat Tillman and the outing of CIA agent Valerie Plame. Henry Arnold Waxman, 69, is a Democrat from California who has called Congress home for half his life. He has long inspired strong views on Capitol Hill, where some regard him as one of his generation's great lawmakers and a relentless champion for the common good, even as others dismiss him as a partisan pit bull with an insatiable appetite for headlines. Either way, one thing is certain: One of his top concerns has long been global warming, and after dethroning a fellow Democrat to win the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, he's vowing quick action on comprehensive energy legislation containing provisions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If America doesn't act, Waxman warns, the country will pay a hefty price in terms of health, the environment, national security, and global instability. "We're more and more suffering the consequences of global warming and climate change, which scientists tell us could be irreversible if we don't take very serious action now," he says. Waxman wants his new committee to have a bill to curb carbon emissions prepared by April so that it can be approved by the panel before Memorial Day. President Barack Obama, he says, "has called upon us to move forward in this area. It's something that we can no longer neglect." Opponents, starting with the top Republican on the committee, argue that the science isn't proved and the timing, with countries around the world mired in recession, isn't right. House Republican Joe Barton of Texas, a former chair of the panel and now its ranking member, says a sure way to turn a severe economic downturn into a depression is to pass a "cockamamie climate change bill" that includes mandatory cap-and-trade provisions. A cap-and-trade system would involve the federal government setting yearly limits on total greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. Washington would then allocate emission credits that could be traded, banked, or sold to meet the cap. Each credit would allow a factory or coal-fueled power plant to emit 1 ton of greenhouse gases. Advocates believe the provisions would spur private-sector innovations, keeping the United States at the cutting edge of new energy technology and energy efficiency. Opponents envision industrial jobs going overseas. Waxman, addressing critics who warn about the risk of outsourcing, says doing nothing about global warning would result in an economy worse off than it is now, with damage to public health, the environment, "even our cities, our agriculture, our forests, and our national security." As draft legislation is hammered out and congressional hearings are underway, Waxman is showing few of his cards, careful to avoid being pinned down on exactly what he'd like in a bill or how much he'd concede. Whether the full House and Senate would approve climate legislation is also unclear, particularly in an area where Democrats, some from manufacturing bases or coal-producing regions, tend to be divided by regional interests. One environmentalist tracking the debate says Waxman "is making a gamble that he can get this done quickly while Obama's popularity is high." Copenhagen. Looming next December are international climate talks in Copenhagen under the auspices of the United Nations. That's another impetus behind the Democrats' bid for swift congressional action. Environmentalists point out that a hard-fought debate in Congress that forces agreement between pro-environment and pro-business legislators could be a useful preview for the Obama administration of what kinds of proposals it might be able to offer in Denmark. Long before he was one of Congress's more ambitious environmentalists, Waxman grew up above his father's grocery store in the Watts section of Los Angeles. He went to UCLA both for college and law school and, in short order, entered the California Assembly. He won election to Congress at age 35 in 1974, when a wave of Democratic reformers won seats in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal. It was in 1992 that he first introduced global warming legislation. Copyright CALSTARTHe is, according to loyalists, a smart and strategic thinker, dogged in his pursuit of his goals. They say his private persona is a 2009 world apart from the public man on display when questioning witnesses, as he famously did in 1994 when he (an ex-smoker, 6. 2009-03-03 : VW Unveils CNG Concept at Geneva Auto Show DESCRIPTION - Says Touran TSI EcoFuel with dual charging via turbocharger and supercharger... CONTENT - Geneva, Switzerland, March 3, 2009 - Volkswagen this week unveiled five of its newest concepts, touting fuel efficiency across the company brand, reports Automotive News. Fuel efficient diesels include the Polo BlueMotion Copyright CALSTART 2009 7. Copyright CALSTART 2009Source: Westport Innovations Press Release, December 4, 2007 8. T&T to Deploy More Than 15,000 Alternative-Fuel Vehicles Makes Largest Commitment to Compressed Natural Gas to Date by a U.S. Company; Part of 10-Year Commitment to Spend up to $565 Million on Alternative-Fuel Vehicles Dallas, Texas, March 11, 2009 newsrelease ShareThis Through an initiative that highlights the growing demand for cleaner domestic vehicles, AT&T* today announced plans to invest up to $565 million as part of a long-term strategy to deploy more than 15,000 alternative-fuel vehicles over the next 10 years. AT&T expects to spend an estimated $350 million to purchase about 8,000 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles and approximately $215 million to begin replacing its passenger cars with alternative-fuel models. AT&T's investment represents the largest U.S. corporate commitment to CNG vehicles to date. The new deployments will bring AT&T's alternative-fuel fleet to more than 15,000 vehicles by 2019. "AT&T and other U.S. corporations have a unique opportunity to partner with the new administration as it works to lead the country out of this economic downturn," said Randall Stephenson, chairman and chief executive officer of AT&T Inc. "While there are no easy solutions to the challenges facing our nation, this investment is a first step on our part to help boost other industries while at the same time encouraging wider use and production of efficient vehicles and domestic fuel alternatives." The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor, Mich., estimates that the new vehicles will save 49 million gallons of gasoline and reduce carbon emissions by 211,000 metric tons over the 10-year deployment period. That is equivalent to removing the emissions from more than 38,600 traditional passenger vehicles for a year. Over the next five years, AT&T will replace about 8,000 gasoline-powered service vehicles with vehicles powered by domestically available CNG. CNG vehicles are expected to emit approximately 25 percent less greenhouse gas emissions than those traditionally powered by gasoline. The vehicle chassis will be built domestically by a U.S. automotive manufacturer. AT&T will then work with domestic suppliers to convert the chassis to run on CNG. AT&T will also work with natural gas service providers to build up to 40 new CNG fueling stations across its operating region to provide the fueling infrastructure needed for the new vehicles. This investment will have a positive impact on job creation and preservation. CAR estimates that nearly 1,000 jobs will be created or saved each year for five years. As it begins to retire gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in its fleet, AT&T has committed to replacing them with alternative-fuel models. AT&T expects to replace 7,100 passenger cars over the next 10 years. The alternative-fuel vehicles, which will be used by employees in a variety of diverse work functions across AT&T's operations, are expected to offer up to a 39 percent improvement in fuel economy and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 29 percent. During the initial phase of the deployment, gasoline-powered passenger vehicles will be replaced with hybrid models. As technologies evolve, additional alternative-fuel vehicle types will be considered for inclusion. "Economic times are tough, but tough times make it even more important to look for efficient solutions," said Stephenson. Copyright CALSTART"This is part of a long-term strategy that will help us continue to cut operating costs, reduce emissions in the communities we 2009serve and make our business even more sustainable." 9. 2009-03-02 : UPS Deploys 300 New CNG Trucks to Fleet DESCRIPTION - Brings total to 1,100 CNG vehicles... CONTENT - Atlanta, GA, February 19, 2009 - UPS announced in a press release that it had deployed 300 new delivery trucks powered by Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to seven cities in Colorado, Georgia, Oklahoma and California. The new CNG trucks have been deployed over the past month to Denver (43); Atlanta (46); Oklahoma City (100), and four cities in California: Sacramento (21), San Ramon (63), Los Angeles (9) and Ontario (18). All now are in service. "Deploying Copyright CALSTARTalternative fuel vehicles dates back to the early days of UPS and this CNG 2009 10. Source: East Bay Business Times, January 23, 2008 / Solazyme Press ReleaseCopyright CALSTART 2009 11. Volkswagen Teams with Toshiba to Sell Electric Car by 2012 (graphic saved) 02/18/09 Environmental Leader http://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/02/18/volkswagen-teams-with-toshiba-to-sell-electric-carby-2012/ German automakers have been late in coming to the electric car game. However, Volkswagen AG recently signed an agreement with Toshiba Corp. to develop an electric car. The Up! subcompact concept car will be the first Volkswagen car to benefit from the agreement, which will pair Volkswagens electric drive train knowledge with Toshibas power electronics and Copyright CALSTARTbattery system expertise, according to this Reuters story. 2009 12. Source: Smith Electric Vehicles Press Release December 4, 2007 /Copyright CALSTART 2009 13. Fleet of electric trucks is bound for Port of Los Angeles 02/25/09 Los Angeles Times http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-electric-truck25-2009feb25,0,6411132.story Graphic caption: Steven Barhanovic, left, and Christopher Barhanovic put finishing touches on an electric truck at Balqon Corp. in Harbor City. The standing joke about the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach used to be that they were like the diesel version of elephant graveyards: the place where old trucks went to die. But lately, they have become a proving ground for technology that produces little or no pollution. On Tuesday, the first of 25 heavy-duty all-electric trucks rolled off a new Los Angeles assembly line. All are slated to work at the Port of Los Angeles or to make short hauls to and from the harbor. The small fleet results from a partnership involving the Port of Los Angeles, the South Coast Air Quality Management District and a small business called Balqon Corp. For a vehicle that is going to be doing a lot of grunt work with rusty cargo containers, its coming out party was pretty splashy. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was there for the unveiling of the Nautilus E30 and even took it for a short spin. He was joined by Los Angeles City Copyright CALSTART 2009 Councilwoman Janice Hahn, Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners 14. Toyota plans Yaris-based hybrid http://www.autonews.com/article/20090325/ANA02/903259986 Hans Greimel Automotive News March 25, 2009 - 10:51 am ET TOKYO -- The green car race between Toyota and Honda is heating up.Toyota Motor Corp. plans a new small hybrid car to take on the Insight, the inexpensive Honda hybrid that just reached the United States. The small gasoline-electric car being planned will be a low-priced spinoff of the Toyota Yaris, said Akihiko Otsuka, chief engineer of the redesigned, third-generation Toyota Prius. "We are developing a low-priced hybrid vehicle like Honda's Insight," Otsuka said. "We are going to compete by expanding our hybrid-vehicle lineup to smaller hybrids, in the class of the Vitz [sold in Japan] and Yaris." He did not say when the small hybrid would debut, but it could arrive as early as 2011, according to Japan's Nikkei business newspaper.Toyota's plan is the clearest sign yet that it is worried about the inroads that its domestic arch rival is making into small, low-priced hybrid vehicles. The Honda Insight, which starts at around $20,000, is selling briskly in Japan and will be followed by a hybrid version of the Fit compact.Cheaper than a PriusBy contrast, Toyota's third-generation Prius has a bigger engine and many options common to premium cars. The current, second-generation Prius, at around $22,000, already is more expensive than the Insight. The updated model is expected to be even pricier when it arrives in May in U.S. showrooms.Otsuka said the small hybrid Copyright CALSTART 2009 being developed will be cheaper than the Prius.Toyota's hybrid strategy calls for 15. 2009-03-05 : Freightliner Custom Chassis, Parker Hannifin Roll Out Hydraulic Hybrid Walk-in Van DESCRIPTION - Features Cummins ISB 2007, a Parker hydraulic-propulsion system, no transmission needed... CONTENT - Chicago, IL, March 4, 2009 - Freightliner Custom Chassis Corp (FCCC) this week showcased its new hydraulic hybrid electric MT55-walk-in van chassis at the National Truck Equipment Association Work Truck Show here, according to Fleet Owner. The chassis, which was developed in partnership with Parker Hannifin Corp and features and Parker hydraulic hybrid propulsion system, a Cummins ISB 2007 200-hp engine, does not require a transmission. "The hydraulic Copyright CALSTART 2009 hybrid chassis not only offers a reduction in operating costs, it also decreases 16. Source: New York Times, August 25, 2007 / Trademark info from AutoBlogGreen Nov 13, 2007Copyright CALSTART 2009 17. Williamsburg, VA, June 16, 2008 - In the face of rapidly rising fuel costs, thirteen hybrids trucks, ranging in size from GM's new two-mode hybrid Silverado pick-up to Dueco-Odyne's plug-in hybrid electric "digger-derrick" truck highlighted the product demonstrations at the 2008 Electric Utility Fleet Managers Conference in Williamsburg, VA. Several truck makers, including Navistar, Freightliner, Peterbilt and Kenworth showcased hybrid electric trucks, as did several other players including body/device manufacturers Terex, Dueco, Time and Altec, in partnerships with system suppliers including Eaton, Azure Dynamics and Odyne. Beyond the Copyright CALSTART 2009 18. 2009-02-26 : Nissan Starts Test of Its Next Gen Fuel Cell DESCRIPTION - Says 25% smaller than the previous model, 1.4 times the power output... CONTENT - Hokkaido, Japan, February 25, 2009 - Nissan Motor Co. Ltd this week announced it has commenced cold-weather vehicle testing on its nextCopyright CALSTART 2009