CalNex Forecast
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Transcript of CalNex Forecast
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CalNex Forecast
Prepared Sunday
27 June 2010
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Anticipated Flights
NOAA Twin OtterSun: two flightsMon: potentially one flight? Tue: transit to LAWed: Mexico flight
CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sun: AM/PM flights likelyMon: AM/PM flights likelyTue: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
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Local Features - Sac area focus
Sunday - synoptic flow weakens significantly, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; pollutant concentrations build (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast); CANSAC appears better solution than COAMPS today; weak flow to east in Sac (downtown to T0 flow doubtful; urban flow toward T1 with long transport time) but bulk of urban flow south of T1; winds <5 kts.
Monday - high pressure ridge lingering - primarily terrain driven flow; light NW to W wind coupled with upslope flow in foothills; no or limited Delta inflow; with light winds, Sac air flows south of T1; USG air quality likely.
Tuesday - smoke possible from prescribed burns in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks.
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Synoptic OverviewNOTE: FORECAST NOT UPDATED FROM SATURDAY'S CALL(only change is that ridge slower to break down and Monday will be similar to Sunday)
Sunday June 27• High Pressure peaks• Light and variable flow• Onshore gradient weakens
Monday June 28 • High Pressure breaks down as Trof approaches• Transport flow SW north, Southerly south• Marine layer deepens in the north• Light and variable flow S.CA
Tue – Thurs• Tue: Deep Trof approaches, SW flow throughout• Wed: Trof axis over N.CA late aftn-eve, SW flow, deeper marine layer• Thurs: Trof axis over Ca, W-NW flow in N.CA, W-SW in S.CA
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GFS and ECMWF
Updated Sunday, June 27, 2010
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Analysis GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT
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12 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT
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24 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT
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36 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT
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48 hour GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT
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60 hour GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT
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GFS 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT
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ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT
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3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Wednesday – 05 PDT
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4 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT
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4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT
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5 day GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT
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5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT
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1430 UTC
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Large Scale Transport
RAQMS FX updated Sunday, June 27
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Large Scale Transport
focus on Sacramento area500m RDF FX 00Z 06/27 (Sun Afternoon)Clean air wrt transport over area (low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air (descent near coast).500m RDF FX 00Z 06/28 (Mon Afternoon)Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Strong descent of air.
focus on San Joaquin Valley500m RDF FX 00Z 06/29 (Tue Afternoon)Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); O3, BC_OC, and SO4 slightly higher in Kern County). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; more descent in southern portion of valley.
focus on Mexico500m RDF FX 00Z 06/30 (Wed Afternoon)Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); Note: SO4 very high to SW and E of northern Mexico; moderate O3 levels. Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air.
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500m Black and Organic C - Sunday afternoon
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500m PM2.5 - Sunday afternoon
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500m CO - Sunday afternoon
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500m O3 - Sunday afternoon
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500m O3 Prod-Loss - Sunday afternoon
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500m Vertical Displacement - Sunday afternoon
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500m Black and Organic C - Monday afternoon
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500m PM2.5 - Monday afternoon
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500m CO - Monday afternoon
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500m O3 - Monday afternoon
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500m O3 Prod-Loss - Monday afternoon
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500m Vertical Displacement - Monday afternoon
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500m Black and Organic C - Tuesday afternoon
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500m PM2.5 - Tuesday afternoon
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500m CO - Tuesday afternoon
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500m O3 - Tuesday afternoon
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500m O3 Prod-Loss - Tuesday afternoon
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500m Vertical Displacement - Tuesday afternoon
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500m Black and Organic C - Wednesday afternoon
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500m PM2.5 - Wednesday afternoon
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500m CO - Wednesday afternoon
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500m O3 - Wednesday afternoon
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500m O3 Prod-Loss - Wednesday afternoon
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500m Vertical Displacement - Wednesday afternoon
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Sulphate
Large Scale Transport
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500m SO4 - Sunday afternoon
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500m SO4 - Monday afternoon
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500m SO4 - Tuesday afternoon
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500m SO4 - Wednesday afternoon
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Northern California
Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi
and
COAMPS fine grid plots
10 M WINDS AND 10 M TRACER FROM N SF BAY
THE COAMPS LOOPS PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html
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http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi
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10-m wind 12 Z Sun
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10-m wind 18 Z Sun
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10-m wind 00 Z Mon
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10-m wind 06 Z Mon
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10-m wind 12 Z Mon
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10-m wind 18 Z Mon
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10-m wind 00 Z Tue
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10-m wind 06 Z Tue
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10-m wind 12 Z Tue
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10-m wind 18 Z Tue
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10-m wind 00 Z Wed
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205m tracer 12 Z Sun
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205m tracer 18 Z Sun
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205m tracer 00 Z Mon
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205m tracer 06 Z Mon
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205m tracer 12 Z Mon
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205m tracer 18 Z Mon
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205m tracer 00 Z Tue
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CANSAC Initialized 00 Z Sunday
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10-m wind 12 Z Sun
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10-m wind 18 Z Sun
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10-m wind 00 Z Mon
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10-m wind 06 Z Mon
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10-m wind 12 Z Mon
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10-m wind 18 Z Mon
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10-m wind 00 Z Tue
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10-m wind 06 Z Tue
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10-m wind 12 Z Tue
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10-m wind 18 Z Tue
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10-m wind 00 Z Wed
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Walnut Grove Tower Ozone Data http://tbsys.serveftp.net/wg/wgup/wgtower_o3.htm
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Sacramento Valley (old 6/26 forecast)
Sunday• AM: Weak onshore flow continues to die down, generally S and below 4kt in
Sac Cnty in early AM; onshore flow nonexistent; stagnation in mid morning and Sac Cnty becomes SSW2kt in late morning
• Early PM: Onshore flow starts to resume W10kt in the Bay; greater upslope flow in the valley - Sac Cnty at W4kt; wind shift between late morning and early afternoon provides opportunity for Downtown plume to move to T0 and T1, may miss T1 because southerly wind not strong enough
• Late Aftn: Onshore flow makes it way into lower Sac Cnty; upper Sac Cnty and Cool still under thermal upslope effect
• Evening: Onshore flow reaches the foothills, but not strong enough to go upslope to Cool
• PBL 500 to 1000ft in AM; PM PBL 5,000ft (S.SV)• MBL below 500ft;• Max aftn temp: 38C/100F; USG air quality
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Sacramento Valley (old 6/26 forecast)
Monday• AM: Weak onshore flow, almost nonexistent; stagnation (SSW2kt) in Sac
Cnty until thermally driven upslope flow draws W flow in late morning; W3kt flow to Cool, Sac Cnty at W2kt in late AM;
• Early PM: Sign of onshore flow starting up, upslope flow stronger from the W; Downtown plume brush by just south of T0 and misses T1
• Late Aftn: Onshore flow reaches the delta; Downtown plume gets close to T0 (under a bit of delta wind influence) but still misses T1; T1 still experiences upslope flow from the W
• CANSAC transport wind shows plume will stay in Sac foothills, more northern than GFS tranjectories
• AM PBL 500ft; PM PBL 5,000ft• MBL below 500ft;• Max aftn temp: 35C/95F; USG air quality
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Sacramento Trajectory (Sun)
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Sacramento Trajectory (Mon)
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San Joaquin Valley - updated June 27, 2010
Sunday June 27Surface Winds: The surface observations this morning show thermally driven wind flow across the SJV. The Chowchilla and Visalia wind profilers indicate light and variable wind flow throughout the atmospheric profile. 0Z CANSAC shows weak onshore flow, wtih afternoon thermally driven northwesterly winds across the entire District this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable this evening. Onshore flow will weaken overnight. Boundary Layer Mixing: 0Z CANSAC indicates maximum mixing depths will be between 2,000 and 3,000 feet this afternoon.Air Quality: Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward. USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Monday June 28Surface Winds: Thermally driven wind flow will continue tomorrow. Northwesterly winds will be stronger tomorrow as compared to Sunday. Boundary Layer Mixing: Slightly deeper mixing depths will occur tomorrow under a little more afternoon heating.Air Quality: Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward. USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Note: RX Burn Scheduled on Tuesday in Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park (Bobcat)
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Central Coast
NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal
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Southern Coastal Waters
NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal
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South Coast Air Basin
NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal