Call for Public Hearing for FY21 Service Restoration Plan€¦ · Restoration Plan Committee of the...

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Call for Public Hearing for FY21 Service Restoration Plan

Committee of the Whole

July 7, 2020

Todd Plesko, VP Service Planning & Scheduling

Rob Smith, AVP Service Planning & Scheduling

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• To call a Public Hearing on August 11, 2020 for proposed October 2020 service changes including:– Adjusted frequency on core frequent bus and rail services

– October restoration of weekday frequency of 25 bus routes

– October discontinuation, modification, or replacement for nine (9) low performing bus routes

– Authorization to restore weekday service frequency on TRE and 26 bus routes based upon ridership and load triggers throughout FY21

– Continuation of emergency service levels on 62 bus routes during FY21

Today's Consideration

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• Rationale for ridership-based approach to service restoration

• Recommended service restoration plan

• Impact of recommended plan

Today’s Presentation

4

Step Date

Call for Public Hearing, Planning Committee• Continued operation of emergency service• Additional October service changes

June 9, 2020

Call for Public Hearing, Board of Directors Approval June 23, 2020

Discussion on Bus Network Plan, Service Changes July 7, 2020

Public Meetings on emergency service changes August 3-10, 2020

Public Hearing, Planning Committee Briefing August 11, 2020

Approval of Changes, Planning Committee or COTW August 25, 2020

Approval of Changes, Board of Directors September 8, 2020

Implementation October 19, 2020

Timeline for October Changes

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Ridership Forecasts

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Mode FY19 Ridership

Original FY20Ridership Projection

Potential FY20COVID-19

Ridership Impact

Potential FY21COVID-19 Ridership

Impact

Bus 38,452,419 38,142,100 26,943,090 18,305,162

Light Rail 28,334,785 28,873,235 19,233,527 12,243,659

TRE 2,006,996 2,020,176 1,225,407 548,805

Streetcar 226,495 260,573 186,387 144,980

GoLink 206,759 212,017 172,851 121,994

Vanpool 611,484 645,000 324,688 87,668

Paratransit 906,151 841,748 576,803 302,062

Grand Total 70,745,089 70,994,849 48,662,753 31,754,330

Potential Ridership Impact Scenario

Key assumptions:• May 2020 through Feb 2021 ridership will remain the same level of loss as April 2020 compared to April 2019.• March 2021 through September 2021 ridership will increase by 10% compared to FY 2020 due to the possible

availability of a vaccine solution.45 % of

FY19Drop caused by 55 % decline in ridership after Mar 13, 2020 COVID impact

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• Across the world, transit systems have lost 60% to 90% of weekday ridership

– The most heavily-used transit systems like London, Paris, and various Asian systems have lost 85 % of their riders and do not project a quick return

• US experts suggest that the highest likely ridership return would be 50% until a vaccine and therapeutic treatments are available on a widespread basis

• DART staff project ridership levels for FY21 will be only 45% of FY19 ridership

• Most transit systems worldwide, including DART peers, are planning to operate frequencies that are less than operated pre-pandemic until ridership triggers additional service

Ridership Decline Worldwide

8

Recent Ridership Trends• Recommended changes are in response to an analysis of ridership trends, and

passenger loads

• Ridership dropped significantly after March 12th, reaching levels as shown in the chart of weekday ridership below

1%-4%

-32%

-46%-48%

-56% -58% -58% -55%-53% -53% -51%

-51%-47% -48% -48%

-3%-10%

-43%

-58%-60%

-65%-62% -61% -62%

-57% -58% -57% -56%-64%

-55% -55%

-1%

-7%

-49%

-71%-75% -75% -76% -74% -76%

-72% -71%-76%

-70% -72% -70%-75%

11% 9%

-24% -24%

-39%

-48%-43%

-40%-43%

-51% -50%-42%

-36%

-61%

-38% -36%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Bus Light Rail TRE Streetcar

9

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1

January May

January

AM Peak PM Peak

Bus January and MayWeekday Riders by Hour

May

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

January Weekday Riders Current Weekday Riders

January Weekday Buses Current Weekday Buses

Bus January and MayRidership and Buses in Service

BusesCOVIDSeats

12,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

10,000

Riders

1

11

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3

January May

May

January

AM Peak

Light Rail January and May Weekday Riders by Hour

PM Peak

12

Recommended October Service Changes

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• Staff recommendation

– Phased restoration in FY21 of routes or services based upon ridership triggers

• Implement staff-recommended transit service restoration in October based upon initial revenue forecasts

• Restore January 2020 service in October 2020

Three Options for Restoration Discussed at Planning Committee

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• Proposed October changes respond to ridership, load factors, and anticipated financial capacity

• The changes can be grouped into four general categories:

– Group One: 7 core frequent bus routes and 4 light rail lines, which would offer reduced service but higher frequencies than other routes

– Group Two: 20 bus routes with high load factors, which would return to normal pre-pandemic service levels in October

– Group Three: 5 routes return to normal service in October, 26 routes and TRE authorized for restoration during FY21 based upon ridership triggers, and 62 routes continue at emergency service levels

– Group Four: 9 low-performing or duplicative routes that would be discontinued, modified, or replaced

Staff Recommended Service Changes

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Group One: Core Frequent Routes

466

11

409

592

404

467

583

Blue

Red

Green

Orange

Blue

Red11

• 7 core frequent bus routes and all 4 light rail lines would operate Weekdays every 20 minutes until 7pm, then every 30 minutes

• This means rail frequencies would be reduced between 7pm and 10pm on Weekdays, but matches anticipated ridership levels and load factors

• The adjusted rail schedules also support upcoming work to install cellular technology in the North Central tunnel

• Weekend schedules were not changed in the emergency

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Group Two: High Ridership/ Load Routes

• 20 higher-ridership routes would return to regular, pre-COVID service levels

• Most of these routes normally have 30-minute service or better Weekdays, but have been running hourly during emergency service levels

63

527

31

401

408

549

59

52

445

547

554

360

110

2

164

36

534

486/488

39

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Group Three: Routes that Continue with Emergency Service Levels

• A third group of 93 bus routes and TRE

• 5 routes return to normal service in October

• 26 routes and TRE authorized for restoration during FY21 based upon ridership triggers

• 62 routes continue at emergency service levels

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Group Three Routes Meeting Triggers

• May ridership numbers show that four routes would meet the proposed trigger levels for restoration, and would change in October:

– Routes 82, 426, 528, 533

– Route 81 is interlined with 82, and would also be restored

• Annual cost of restoring these routes: $555k

533

528

81

81

82 426

82

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Group Three Routes Potentially Restored During 2021

• This group of 26 bus routes and TRE service would be restored to normal levels if they meet proposed trigger levels

402 451 526 544

403 452 529 551

405 453 531 574

410 463 535 593

415 501 538 597

428 506 541 TRE

444 522 542

402403

405

410

415

428

444

451

452

453

463

501

506

522

526529

531

535

538

541542

544

551

574

593

597

TRE

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Group Three Routes Remaining at Emergency Frequencies

12 278 504 555

19 283 505 560

21 333 507 566

24 347 508 568

26 350 509 571

29 361 510 582

35 362 513 591

60 372 514 594

76 374 515 595

84 376 516 702

111 377 521 749

161 378 524 841

183 380 525 843

205 475 532 870

206 500 536 62 total208 502 553

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• In this scenario, all service on these routes would be discontinued:

• 27: Harry Hines to Parkland

• 42: Edgefield

• 155: South Oak Cliff

• 210: Jack Hatchell Express

• 211: Plano E-W Express

• 887: Rowlett

• Two routes would be discontinued, but replaced with GoLink service:

• 385: Serves South Garland and Rowlett

• 840: South Irving

• Route 585 would serve Hamilton Park only

Group Four: Discontinued, Replaced, or Modified Routes

211

27

210

585

42

840

385

887

155

Alternative:

S Irving GoLink

Alternative:

Routes 12, 405

Alternative:

Routes 206, 278

Alternative:

Route 208,

Red/Orange Line

Hamilton Park

service continues

Alternative:

Rowlett GoLink

Alternative:

SE Garland GoLink

Alternative:

Route 554, Blue LIne

Alternative:

Route 452

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Why These Routes?

• These routes consistently fail to meet DART route performance standards, other services are available in the same area, or both

• In 20Q2, passengers per hour of service was very low, and subsidies per passenger were very high

Route

20Q2 Average

Weekday Riders

20Q2 Riders/

Hour

20Q2 Subsidy/

Rider

27 143 7.28 $18.48

42 390 8.65 $13.92

155 167 14.87* $15.23

210 143 5.90 $47.08

211 248 6.51 $34.55

385 278 9.65 $17.17

585 279 7.73 $18.56

840 181 8.70 $18.41

887 107 7.45 $25.23**

* Met 20Q2 standard** 20Q1

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Group 1 Core Frequent, LRT

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Group 2 High Ridership

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Group 3 Triggered Routes

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Group 3 $10.4 Million Added

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Group 3 Other Bus Routes

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Group 3 Other Bus Routes

Group 4 Discontinued/Replaced

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Impact of Recommended Plan

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Impact of Plan on Access

Within 1/2 Mile Group 1 Group 2Group 3

All RoutesGroup 3October

Group 3PotentiallyTriggered

Group 3 Emergency

Group 4 All Routes

Population 523,222 750,785 1,835,404 133,965 1,023,701 1,358,990 235,193 2,096,112

Private Jobs 518,131 834,199 1,550,052 263,733 802,954 1,223,406 312,402 1,695,066

Average Weekday Riders Q2 95,963 23,798 63,279 2,480 29,097 31,702 1,663 184,703

Share of Q2 Riders 52% 13% 34% 1% 16% 17% 1% 100%

Average Weekday Riders May

50,182 13,590 33,534 1,901 15,269 16,364 856 98,162

Below 100% of Poverty Line 23.4% 17.8% 17.7% 20.4% 18.9% 17.9% 15.9% 17.2%

Minority 75.7% 70.2% 68.2% 65.9% 72.6% 67.8% 65.6% 67.6%

No Car 11.0% 8.4% 7.7% 12.0% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.5%

Main Rider Groups

ReliantTask

CorporateEvent

ReliantTask

ReliantTask

Corporate

ReliantTask

ReliantTask

ReliantTask

Corporate

ReliantTask

Corporate

DART-operated service only; no Streetcar or contracted shuttle services

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• Additional capacity provided by full service is unnecessary in FY21

• Full service is unlikely to convince commuter and event riders to use public transit until a vaccine is created and universally available

• Full service will eliminate bus midday cleaning strategy due to insufficient vehicles

• Operating full service will increase costs above January costs due to COVID-19 issues for cleaning, extra-board, and overtime requirements

• Will require hiring additional bus operators to meet service requirements

• Long term availability of sufficient financial resources to support the full-service level (at extra cost) is uncertain

Full Restoration Issues

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Mode

Annualized Incremental Cost

Difference Notes

Bus: October Schedule -$26.7 million

LRT: October Schedule -$4.9 million

TRE: Emergency Schedule -$4.1 million FY21 estimate

Total Savings October Proposal -$35.7 million

Additional Service Restoration +$10.4 million

Net Service Spending Change -$25.3 million

Estimated Annual Savings From Changes

Estimated costs for bus and LRT are based upon DART cost allocation model assumptions; final actual savings will be incorporated into FY21 Operating Budget assumptions

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• To call a Public Hearing on August 11, 2020 for proposed October 2020 service changes including:– Adjusted frequency on core frequent bus and rail services

– October restoration of weekday frequency of 25 bus routes

– October discontinuation, modification, or replacement for nine (9) low performing bus routes

– Authorization to restore weekday service frequency on TRE and 26 bus routes based upon ridership and load triggers throughout FY21

– Continuation of emergency service levels on 62 bus routes during FY21

Today's Consideration

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Current Timeline for Bus Service Changes, Bus Network Redesign

Timing October Service Changes Bus Network Redesign

20Q1Oct-Dec 2019

Project KickoffWork on Draft Choices Report

20Q2Jan-Mar 2020

Network Concept DesignPublic Involvement, Round 1

20Q3Apr-Jun 2020

Call for Public Hearing * Public Involvement, Round 1

20Q4Jul-Sep 2020

Public HearingApprove October Service Changes *

Public Involvement, Round 1

21Q1Oct-Dec 2020

Implementation October 2020Ridership/Coverage Balance *

Final Draft Plan *

21Q2Jan-Mar 2021


21Q3Apr-Jun 2021


21Q4Jul-Sep 2021

Approve Bus Network Plan *Initiate Service Change Process *

22Q1Oct-Dec 2021

Public Involvement, Service Changes

22Q2Jan-Mar 2022

Approve Service Changes *

22Q3Apr-Jun 2022

Implementation May 2022

* Board decision points; Board briefings and discussions normally monthly

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• The current pandemic has obviously had massive impacts on society, DART riders, and DART operations

• We have seen dramatic, rapid reduction in ridership

• We have made a number of emergency service adjustments in response

• Looking ahead, we expect COVID 19 to continue to affect our operations, with a very slow return of ridership and reduced sales tax revenues

• We are recommending a series of service adjustments to help DART move through the next couple of years until work on the bus network redesign is completed

• We continue to anticipate a major bus service restructuring in 2022

COVID-19 Pandemic and DART Service

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• DART was allowed to introduce emergency service adjustments between March 23 and April 6 under the temporary emergency authority provided by declaration of the Governor of Texas

• If reduced service operations are to continue , DART is required to comply with Public Hearing requirements of the Texas Transportation Code 452

• The Public Hearing must occur within 180 days of the change date, thus requiring a Hearing before the end of September

• This proposed service change process and timeline will ensure that continued reduced operations remain in compliance

Call for Public Hearing Timing

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• Review of recent ridership trends that have influenced our recommendations for changes

• Discussion of current interim reduced service levels and other adjustments that will happen in July

• Presentation of recommended service adjustments for October

• Impacts on service levels

Today’s Presentation

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• DART responded with service reductions to reflect changes in ridership

• TRE service modifications began March 23, 2020

• Bus and light rail modifications began April 6, 2020

Ridership Trends and Emergency Service Reductions

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• DART introduced modified Weekday schedules on most bus routes

• Routes (155 and 887) are not operating, as other service is available in these areas

• Most routes are running on a Saturday schedule during the week

• For routes that do not normally operate on Saturday, buses follow Weekday service spans and operate approximately once an hour

• For routes that run a shorter service span on Saturday, hours were extended to match Weekday service spans

• GoLink service operates at normal Weekday levels

• In addition to reduced service levels, bus entry is rear door only, and front seats are reserved for passengers with disabilities

April 6, 2020 Bus Reductions

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• Weekday trains run every 20 minutes until 10pm, then every 30 minutes after

• 2-car consists are now provided to promote social distancing

• 1-car consists are running on Saturday to allow for platform extension work to continue

April 6, 2020 LRT Reductions

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• TRE began a modified Weekday schedule on March 23, 2020

• Trains are running hourly throughout the day

March 23, 2020 TRE Reductions

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• Since the adjusted schedules took effect, staff has been monitoring passenger loads via automatic passenger counters (APC) and Operator/Supervisor observations

• For trains, we made an early decision to operate 2-car consists Weekdays based upon observed loads

• For buses, we quickly observed situations where loads were sufficient to challenge proper social distancing, and we have added extra buses to compensate

• There have been far more load issues on buses than trains in April and May

Reduced Schedules and Social Distancing

44

• 585 individual trips recorded a maximum load of >20 passengers at least once

• Some of these observations were anomalies; we are more concerned about consistent issues

• 24 trips had average maximum loads >20 passengers

• Most of these trips were on a subset of DART routes, including: 549, 486, 110, 488, 2, and 404

• 151 trips had average maximum loads >15 passengers

April Bus Load Factor ReviewApril 6-30, 2020 Data

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Average Max Load Weekday Trips Saturday Trips Sunday Trips

Greater than 20 38 22 5

15-20 193 69 54

10-15 788 433 376

5-10 2,433 1,872 1,419

0-5 3,474 2,768 2,228

May Bus Load Factor ReviewData by Trip (May 1-23, 2020)

46

• For the May data in the previous slide, the average maximum load was 5.88

• If we assume a maximum capacity of 20 per trip for social distancing, this translates to about 29% of capacity used

• In January and February before the pandemic, the average maximum bus load system-wide was 7.70

• With more seats available pre-pandemic, this translated to about 21% of capacity used

How Do Loads Compare to Pre-Pandemic Levels?

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Why Are Loads Both Low and High?

• Some loads are higher than we would like

• Other loads have been much lower

• We are seeing both situations because the ridership losses we are seeing are not evenly distributed throughout the bus system

• Some routes have lost almost all of their ridership, such as those depicted on the right

208NW Plano

-82%

278Red Bird

-85%

768SMU

-95%

702NorthPark

-89%

206Glenn Heights

-87%

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Why Are Loads Both Low and High?

• Other routes have seen much smaller losses

• Two services are actually seeing higher ridership than a year ago

• Common factor: these services were a key part of 2018-19 service changes

404Westmoreland

-29%

547S. Cockrell Hill/

Chaucer

+12%

467Buckner

-26%

GoLinkInland Port

+14%

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• Recognizing the financial challenges that DART faces in the coming months and years and the likelihood that ridership will not return or slowly return in the near future, our intent is to operate reduced service for as long as possible

• We continue to be concerned about the number of bus trips with loads at or approaching 20

• For these routes, any future return of ridership – even a small one – will result in even higher loads, presenting challenges for maintaining social distancing

• Our October recommendations target routes where we are seeing or expect to soon see higher ridership/load activity

Looking Ahead

50

30

37 35

22

39

26

44 45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Example: High Rider ActivityRoute 549 Maximum Loads for 4:00pm Weekday Trip

• Since 4/6 this has been the busiest bus trip in the DART network• Current service every 60 minutes vs. 30 minutes on regular schedule

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• In advance of more significant changes that are included in proposed changes for October, DART will implement several service operation adjustments on July 27, 2020

• Route 549 will return to its normal schedule with 30-minute service

• Operators will not do on-street reliefs at the start or end of shifts

• Instead, Operators will swap buses, and each Operator will have a fully-prepared and cleaned bus for the start of their shift

• Weekend bus operations will be consolidated at two operating facilities (for potential cost savings)

July Adjustments to Emergency Schedule

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Ridership Trends

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Ridership and the Pandemic

March12th

Ridership remained relatively normal

Ridership plummeted due to impact of COVID-19 pandemic

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April Ridership Summary

BUS

1.5M

55.1%▼

LIGHT RAIL

975.1K

58.9%▼

GOLINK

9.1K

49.2%▼

TRE

46.2K

73.9%▼

STREETCAR

11.3K

43.4%▼

PARATRANSIT

24.7K

68.9%▼

VANPOOL

7.7K

86.1%▼

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• The bus network redesign will define service for FY22 based upon the FY22 Financial Plan

• It is envisioned that ridership levels and service levels will take many years to recover

• Service Levels implemented for FY21 are unlikely to be sustainable throughout the 20-year Financial Plan, but ridership and service increases will take place slowly

Ridership beyond FY21

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Emergency Service Reductions

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Impact on Service Levels

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Measure Emergency October

Peak Vehicles -40% -32%

Annual Hours -23% -19%

Annual Miles -25% -21%

Annual Operating Cost -24% -19%

Impact on Bus Service LevelsCompared to Pre-COVID Service Levels

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Measure Emergency October

Peak Vehicles -28% -28%

Annual Hours -7% -10%

Annual Miles -8% -12%

Annual Operating Cost -8% -11%

Impact on Light Rail Service LevelsCompared to Pre-COVID Service Levels

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• Route performance is measured quarterly

• Routes are compared to other routes of the same type, and are measured against three performance standards:

– 75% of average riders per hour

– 75% of average passenger miles per revenue mile

– 133% of average subsidy per passenger

• Routes that fail to meet all three performance measures are considered deficient performers

DART Service Standards Recap

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Route 27• Local service from Parkland

Station to Downtown Dallas

• Consistent low performer despite modifications for Uptown access and more frequent peak service

• Several express routes serve most of the stops along this corridor

• $18.48 subsidy per rider 20Q2

• 7.28 riders per hour 20Q2

• 143 riders per day 20Q2

• 54 riders per day April

Parkland

Station

Downtown

Dallas

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Route 42• Local service from Hampton

Station to Downtown Dallas

• Route largely duplicates other DART routes on Beckley, Colorado, and Polk/Tyler, with most sections within 1/3-mile walk

• Challenging operation on parts of Edgefield due to narrow street, parked cars




• 266 riders per day April Hampton

Station

Colorado

Edge

fiel

d

Downtown

Dallas

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Route 155• Limited stop peak hour service

from Highland Hills to Downtown Dallas

• Highland Hills service is also available from Route 554, which runs all day with higher frequency

• Operation suspended during emergency




Highland

Hills

Downtown

Dallas

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Route 210• Express service to Jack Hatchell Transit

Center in Plano

• Consistent low performer as most passengers have moved to Route 208 or light rail

• $47.08 subsidy per passenger 20Q2




• Long-term goal to shift resources to Route 208 to accommodate future expected ridership growth

• Customers can use Route 208, Red/Orange Line trains, or other local services

Jack Hatchell TC

Downtown Dallas

65

Route 211• Crosstown Express service from Parker Road Station no NW Plano Park & Ride in Plano

• Local crosstown service is available via Route 452 between Parker Rd Station and Legacy

• Spring Creek is also served by Golink

• Consistent low performer





Legacy Area

Parker Road Station

Spring Creek

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Route 385• Local service in South Garland with

extensions to Rowlett Station

• Consistent low performer, despite extension to Rowlett Station

• Rowlett service now covered by GoLink





• GoLink service would add midday operation at lower cost

Focus area for GoLink replacement

Lake Ray

Hubbard

P&R

Rowlett

Station

67

Route 585• Local service between

Spring Valley Station and Forest Lane Station in Dallas and Richardson


• Route would be shortened to serve Hamilton Park only

• Several sections served by other routes





Hamilton Park segment

LBJ/Central

Station

Forest Lane

Station

Spring Valley

Station

Walnut

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Route 840• Local service in South

Irving (current FLEX operations end June 1)

• We believe GoLinkservice can provide better coverage access at lower cost

• Some duplication with other DART routes





Downtown Irving/

Heritage Crossing

Station

69

Route 887

• Local service in Rowlett


• All stops served by Rowlett GoLink

• Service suspended during emergency

Downtown Rowlett Station

TX 66

• $25.23 subsidy per passenger 20Q1 (error in Q2 report)



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