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![Page 1: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET: 2012 FORECAST Southwest LA AOR November 8, 2011 Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dbb5503460f94aabeef/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET: 2012 FORECAST
Southwest LA AOR
November 8, 2011
Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
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News You Can Usefrom C.A.R.
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“Stories of Home” Facebook Contest Ask your clients to post a video about YOU!!!
Enter by Nov. 30 for a chance to win a $500 Lowe’s gift card!
www.facebook.com/carealtors “Stories of Home” tab
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Overview
US and California Economies
California Housing Market
Regional & Local Markets
2011 Annual Market Survey
2012 Housing Market Forecast
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U.S. Economic Outlook
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Japanese
Earthquake &
Tsunami
Sovereign DebtCrisis in EuroZone
Oil Price Spikes
2011: A Year of Wild Cards
Arab Uprising
Political Change on Capitol Hill
Debt Limit Ceiling & Downgrade of US Debt
Stock Market Volatility
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Gross Domestic Product
-8%-7%-6%
-5%-4%-3%
-2%-1%
0%1%2%
3%4%
5%6%7%
8%
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Q1
-09
Q3
-09
Q1
-10
Q3
-10
Q1
-11
Q3
-11
2010: 2.8%; 2011 Q3: 2.5% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
ANNUAL QTRLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)
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SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Components of GDPPercent Change
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Consumption Fixed Nonres.Investment
Net Exports Government
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
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Performance Targets for National Economy
Current TargetThis Year - Projected
Unemployment 6% 9.0%
US GDP 3% or higher 1.7%
Nonfarm Job Growth
3%+ or 400K+/mo
1.0%
CPI 2.5% 3.2%
•
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
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QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE
Consumers Pulling BackHome Equity & Reverse Wealth Effect
Consumer Spending 2011 Q3: 2.4%
SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q
-20
00
1Q
-20
01
1Q
-20
02
1Q
-20
03
1Q
-20
04
1Q
-20
05
1Q
-20
06
1Q
-20
07
1Q
-20
08
1Q
-20
09
1Q
-20
10
1Q
-20
11
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CA Underwater Mortgages
SOURCE: CoreLogic
Q4-2009
Q1-2010
Q2-2010
Q3-2010
Q4-2010
Q1-2011
Q2-2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
30.2%
0.046
Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA
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Unemployment Stubbornly High September 2011
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
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5
Ja
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n-0
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Ja
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9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
CA US
California (11.9%) vs. United States (9.1%)
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Unemployment RateLos Angeles County, September 2011: 12.2%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
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U.S. Job Growth: Flat in August
SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 8.4 millionSince Jan’10: +1.8 million
-900,000
-800,000
-700,000
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Ja
n-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Oc
t-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Oc
t-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
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-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Se
p-0
8
No
v-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Se
p-0
9
No
v-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Se
p-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Se
p-1
1
California Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month Changes
Recession Job Losses: 1 millionSince Jan’10: +170,000
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Nonfarm Employment By Region
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Nonfarm NonfarmEmployment Employment Percent
Sep-10 Sep-11 Change ChangeSouthern California 7,684.1 7,763.6 79.5 1.0%
Bay Area 3,028.4 3,062.9 34.5 1.1%
Central Valley 1,842.6 1,844.7 2.1 0.1%
Central Coast 460.6 464.9 4.3 0.9%
North Central 127.9 129.2 1.3 1.0%
CALIFORNIA 13,847.9 14,098.5 250.6 1.8%
(Thousands)
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Nonfarm EmploymentLos Angeles County, September 2011: Up 0.8% YTY
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Ja
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Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
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Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends:
Construction & Financial Sectors Biggest Losers
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Industry 2005 Jul-11Year to
Date
Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000
Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000
Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600
Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200
Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500
Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500
Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600
Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400
Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000
Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000
TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800
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CA New Housing Permits2010: 44,601 units, +22.5% YTY; Aug 2011: +2.6% YTD
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,0001
98
8
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Single Family Multi-Family
SOURCE: CBIA
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INDEX, 100=1985
Consumer Confidence Slipping Again
October 2011: 39.8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ja
n-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ju
l-0
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Ju
l-0
9
Ja
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0
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0
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
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Source: National Federation of Independent Business
Crisis of Confidence: Small Business Optimism Down
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Consumer Price IndexSeptember 2011: All Items +3.9% YTY; Core +2.0% YTY
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ja
n-8
0J
an
-81
Ja
n-8
2J
an
-83
Ja
n-8
4J
an
-85
Ja
n-8
6J
an
-87
Ja
n-8
8J
an
-89
Ja
n-9
0J
an
-91
Ja
n-9
2J
an
-93
Ja
n-9
4J
an
-95
Ja
n-9
6J
an
-97
Ja
n-9
8J
an
-99
Ja
n-0
0J
an
-01
Ja
n-0
2J
an
-03
Ja
n-0
4J
an
-05
Ja
n-0
6J
an
-07
Ja
n-0
8J
an
-09
Ja
n-1
0J
an
-11
All Items
Core
PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984
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Monetary Policy
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2009
.01
2009
.03
2009
.05
2009
.07
2009
.09
2009
.11
2010
.01
2010
.03
2010
.05
2010
.07
2010
.09
2010
.11
2011
.01
2011
.03
2011
.05
2011
.07
7.28
.11
8.11
.11
8.25
.11
9.8.
11
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
FRM ARM
MONTHLY WEEKLY
Mortgage Rates @ Historical LowsDebt Down Grade Ignited Flight to Quality
![Page 26: CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET: 2012 FORECAST Southwest LA AOR November 8, 2011 Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dbb5503460f94aabeef/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers DeleveragingLow Rates and Low Borrowing
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Ja
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FRM
ARM
Federal Funds
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Fiscal Policy
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US Deficit Highest in Decades2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses)
19621965
19681971
19741977
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
2010-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%Deficit as a % of GDP
Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
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US Debt Jumped as Government Responded to Financial Crisis 2010: 93% of GDP
19621965
19681971
19741977
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
20100.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Debt as a % of GDP
Source: US Treasury, compiled by C.A.R.
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Obama Jobs Proposal
What: $450 Billion stimulus: Tax cuts ($250B) and infrastructure spending ($200B)
Why: Economy is stalled/Avoid double-dip Zero job growth in August/high unemploymentStabilize confidence: consumer, business, investor
How:Increase taxes on the richEntitlement ReformTax Reform
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Housing
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Obama Mortgage Refinance Proposal “HARP II”
What: Make it easier for homeowners who are significantly underwater AND not behind on their payments to refi at today’s low rates. Mortgage sold to Fannie or Freddie on or before May 31, 2009Help 1 million homeowners to refinance)
Why: Housing market is stalled / Consumers leery of spending
How: Modify the Home Affordable Refi ProgramEliminates 125% capWaives some GSE fees if loan term reducedEliminates appraisals & extensive underwritingModifies Reps and Warranties
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What Happened?
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%Refinance Originations (Bil $)Purchase Originations (Bil $)Fixed Rate Mortgage
ORIGINATION (BIL $) 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE
Mortgage Originations: 1990-2010
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
• Refinance vs. Purchase
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Trustee Sales in Anaheim Scheduled for 10/7/10
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1872 W. Admiral, 92801
•3 bed, 2.5 ba, built in 1982•Purchased in Sept 2005 for $594,000 with 30% down.•In April 2006, added a second for $57,000.•In Oct 2006, refinanced the second into a new second for $100,000.•Defaulted in 2010•Zestimate of current value = $364,000.
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1572 W. Orangewood, 92802
•3 bd, 2 ba, 2,016 sq ft built in 1977.•Purchased in June 2003 for $455,000 with 30% down.•March 2004: added a second for $75,000; added a third for $90,500; added a fourth for $80,000. •Within one year of purchase, the property had $565,000 in debt on it!•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value •= $442,000.
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8871 Regal, 92804
•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,314 sq ft built in 1956.•Sold for $568,000 in 2005 and went into default•Purchased as REO in 2007 for $417,000 with zero down..•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value = $367,500.
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2414 E. Underhill, 92806
•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,459 sq ft built in 1957.•Purchased for $640,000 in July 2006 with piggyback financing: $500,000 first and $140,000 second, i.e. zero down.•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value = $387,000.
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Conclusions
• Excessive borrowing against home equity is the untold part of the foreclosure story.
• “House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis” by Mian and Sufi: American Economic Review :
• 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008
• attributable to home equity borrowing
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Understanding the Financial Crisis
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Federal Issues – Critical Concerns
High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11
Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux - Increase
guarantee fee likely
FHA targeted for market share drop
Tax Reform on the horizon – MID?
QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage)
20% Down – Is the future of the 30 year
mortgage in doubt?
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U.S. Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9%
Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9%
CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
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California Economic Outlook
• 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate
5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%
Population Growth
1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
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California Housing Market
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California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price
Housing Cycle Comparisons 1970- 2011UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
-61% -25%
-44%
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Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Consumer Confidence• California, September 2011 Sales: 487,940 Units, Up 0.4% YTD, Up 4.1% YTY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
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P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000Ja
n-0
0
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, September 2011: $287,440, Down 8.3% YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
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California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales
22,52918,621
24,43642,506
50,01054,773
36,99020,595
15,70310,658
13,1018,906
5,3663,762
2,6512,0172,5222,2982,8903,3623,7734,271
2,718
0
10
00
0
20
00
0
30
00
0
40
00
0
50
00
0
60
00
0
19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
Year
Number of Homes
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Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, September 2011: 5.1 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ja
n-8
8
Ja
n-8
9
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
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Price Range (Thousand) Sep-10 Aug-11 Sep-11
$1,000K+ 11.1 9.1 10.0$750-1000K 6.8 6.2 6.1$500-750K 6.3 5.6 6.0$300-500K 5.6 5.2 5.4$0-300K 5.1 4.6 4.7
Unsold Inventory Index: Sept 2011(By Price Range: Months)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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Market Breakdown: Equity v. Distressed Sales
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REOs Short Sales Distressed Sales0%
20%
40%
60%
24.7%
19.3%
44.5%
25.2%
17.5%
42.9%
24.4%
18.9%
43.7%
Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11
Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales
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Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Southern California(Percent of Total Sales)
Los AngelesOrange
RiversideSan Bernardino
San Diego
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20%
12%35%
50%
17%
26%
24%
25%15%
8%
Sept 2011
Short Sales
REO Sales
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Central Valley(Percent of Total Sales)
MaderaMerced
San BenitoSacramento
Kern
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
51%
40%
23%37%
37%
12%
21%50% 26%
23%
Sept 2011
Short Sales
REO Sales
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Bay Area(Percent of Total Sales)
MarinNapa
San MateoSanta Clara
SolanoSonoma
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
19% 24%
13%12%
42%
26%
16%27%
13% 22%
31%
22%
Sept 2011
Short Sales
REO Sales
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
REO & Short Sales: Rest of California(Percent of Total Sales)
AmadorButte
HumboldtLake
Monterey
San Luis Obispo
Santa Cruz
South Lake Tahoe
Mendocino
Tehama
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
37%
25%
14%
49%
31%25% 25% 30% 33%
51%
17%
18%
5%
9%
27%
16% 15% 16%8%
8%
Sept 2011
Short Sales
REOs
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California Foreclosure Inventory, September 2011
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
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Foreclosures
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
/90
Q1
/91
Q1
/92
Q1
/93
Q1
/94
Q1
/95
Q1
/96
Q1
/97
Q1
/98
Q1
/99
Q1
/00
Q1
/01
Q1
/02
Q1
/03
Q1
/04
Q1
/05
Q1
/06
Q1
/07
Q1
/08
Q1
/09
Q1
/10
Q1
/11
Los Angeles County
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
THOUSANDS
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Los Angeles• Preforeclosure: 3,403 • Auction: 4,247 • Bank Owned: 1,211
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 11/4/11.
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Los Angeles• Preforeclosure: 3,403
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 11/4/11.
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Los Angeles• Auction: 4,247
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 11/4/11.
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Los Angeles• Bank Owned: 1,211
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 11/4/11.
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Inglewood• Preforeclosure: 278 • Auction: 300 • Bank Owned: 125
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 11/4/11.
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Regional Housing Markets
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Los Angeles
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Sales of Residential Homes• Los Angeles, October 2011: 687 Units
• Down 14.4% MTM, Down 2.1% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Median Price of Residential Homes• Los Angeles, October 2011: $300,000
• Down 11.4% MTM, Down 8.7% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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For Sale Properties• Los Angeles, October 2011: 6,729 Units
• Down 5.6% MTM, Down 23.6% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Months Supply of Inventory • Los Angeles, October 2011: 3.9 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Inglewood
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Sales of Residential Homes• Inglewood, October 2011: 53 Units
• , Up 3.9% MTM, Up 17.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Median Price of Residential Homes• Inglewood, October 2011: $240,000
• Down 3.2% MTM, Up 1.7% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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For Sale Properties• Inglewood, October 2011: 323 Units• Down 7.4% MTM, Down 12.9% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Months Supply of Inventory • Inglewood, October 2011: 3.3 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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2011 Annual Housing Market Survey
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Equity vs. REO vs. Short Sales
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
Share of Total Sales 58.7% 19.7% 20.2%
Median Home Price $431,000 $240,000 $287,000
Square Footage 1,783 1,500 1,600
Price / SF $250 $112 $175
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 98.0% 95.9%
% of Sales With Multiple Offers 35.2% 58.3% 57.5%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 3.0 3.6
% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 34.0% 23.3%
Days on MLS 67 50 141
Days in Escrow 35 35 45
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1 in 3 Sellers Sold Because They Were in Distress
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%30%Sold due to foreclosure/Short sale/Default
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
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Net Cash to Sellers
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$75,000
Median
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
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Proportion of Sellers Planning to Repurchase
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
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Reasons Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home
Q. Why is the seller not planning to purchase another home?
2.7%
4.7%
4.9%
5.7%
10.9%
11.4%
19.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Seller is a lender/bank
Seller prefers to have less financial obligation
Poor credit background
Lack of cash for down payment
Out of work/unemployment
Decide to live with family/friends
Waiting for market to bottom
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Reasons For SellingAll Home Sellers
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Foreclosure/ShortSale/Default
Change in Family Status
Retirement/Move toRetirement Community
Investment/ TaxConsderations
Desired Better Location
Desired Smaller Home
Changed Jobs
Desired Larger Home
Other
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
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Cash Sales on the Rise
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% of All Sales
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Investments & Second/Vacation Homes
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
17%
7%
Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home
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Foreign Buyers
8%
5%6%6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011
% of Foreign Buyers
Q. Was the buyer a foreign buyer?
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California Housing Market Forecast
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Forecast Progress Report
2010 Projected October
2010
2010 Actual
2011 Forecast October
2010
2011 Projected
SFH Resales (000s)
492.0 491.5 502.0 491.1
% Change -10.0% -10.1% 2.0% -0.1%Median Price ($000s)
$306.5 $303.1 $312.5 $291.0
% Change 11.5% 10.2% 2.0% -4.0%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011 vs October 2010
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California Housing Market Outlook
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
SFH Resales (000s)
625.0 477.5 346.9 441.8 546.9 491.5 491.1 496.2
% Change 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 27.3% 23.8% -10.1% -0.1% 1.0%
Median Price ($000s)
$522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $348.5 $275.0 $303.1 $291.0 $296.0
% Change 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -37.8% -21.1% 10.2% -4.0% 1.7%
30-Yr FRM 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7%
1-Yr ARM 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: September 2011
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Closing Thoughts
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Direction of Home Prices: Sellers Skeptical; Buyers Hopeful
Sellers Buyers0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Down Flat Unsure Up
Q: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down or stay flat in one year, five years and 10 years?
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Real Estate: It’s Time To Buy Again
SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset
class in America is housing.”
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8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Home is the Best Investment One Can Make
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
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8 in 10 Renters Would Like to Buy in the Future
“…renters are hardly immune to the allure of homeownership, even in the face of the five-year decline in prices. Asked if they rent out of choice or because they cannot afford to buy a home,
just 24% say they rent out of choice.”
SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
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