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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Carbon Management: A State Energy R&D Perspective Terry Surles...
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Transcript of CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Carbon Management: A State Energy R&D Perspective Terry Surles...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management: A State Energy R&D Perspective
Terry Surles
California Energy Commission
AAAS National Meeting Symposium on Carbon Management
San Francisco, California
February 17, 2001
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Management
Carbon Management
Efficiency-operational- DSM- end use
Decarbonization- “clean energy” Sequestration
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Why Worry about Energy?(Circa 12/98)
Petroleum selling at < $11/barrel Proven natural gas reserves at 175 Tcf
and $2/MBtu Abundant supply has depressed uranium
prices (< $80/kg U) There is a lot of cheap coal (~$26/ton) Lots of generating capacity and reserve
margin
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
We’re Concerned Now
Oil is at $30/barrel Natural gas price is at $18/Mbtu and demand
(at least temporarily) is depleting reserves Energy use impacts global commons (7.4
Gt C/yr. in 1997) Deregulation has changed playing field New regulations and international policies Regional reserve margins are problematic
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s Concerns are Similar in Some Areas
Increased natural gas use Continuing need for improvements in
demand-side energy technologies Aging fleet of generators Financial constraints Climate change uncertainties NIMBY “Needle peaks”
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Context: Additional Factors
Demographics High-technology industrial sectors Social values Air quality Water availability and quality Seismic In-state R&D excellence
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
CA Energy Use by Sector (1996)
46%
31%
13%
13%
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Production of Electricity by Source - 1996
Imports
Imports
NG-15.5%
Hydro- 32.6%
Coal- 51.9%
Wind/solar- 1.5%
Biomass/waste- 2.3%
Oil- 0.3%
Natural Gas
Hydro
17.9%
30.6%
18.9%
Nuclear
Coal
15.4%
8%
258,801 GWh 3,111,441 GWh
Coal55.8%
Nuclear21.7%
Hydro10.6%
Nat Gas8.4%
Wind/solar-0.0004%
Geothermal- 0.2%
Imports- 1.1%
Oil- 2.2%
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Peak Demand is Increasing Faster than Newly Installed Capacity
Me g
a wa t
t s
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Peak Load Growth
Capacity Additions
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Rising Peak Demand Threatens Reliability and Power Quality
*During “no touch” periods, the ISO demands that generators refrain from downtime for maintenance
Num
ber
of P
ower
Em
erge
ncie
s
in C
alif
orni
a
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Market Uncertainty- Price Volatility Impacts Energy Delivery and Use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
04/01/98 08/01/98 12/01/98 04/01/99 08/01/99 12/01/99 04/01/00 08/01/00
Mar
ket C
lear
ing
Pri
ce (
$/M
egaw
att-
hour
)
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Contribution to ISO Peak DemandAugust 16, 2001 (MW)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
43,509 MW
Commercial AC
Commercial Lighting
Residential AC
Other
MW
60005000
6000
26,509
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
2000/2001 Shocks Have Made Energy a Priority
AB 970 Expedited Siting for Simple Peaking Facilities and Facilities
that Pose No Significant Environmental Risk Implementation of $50 M Energy Efficiency Grant Program
AB 995 Extends Surcharge to Fund Public Purpose Efficiency,
Renewables, and R&D Programs for 10 years
SB 1298: ARB to Establish Standards for DG Technologies
SB 1345: Grants to Purchasers of Solar and DG Systems
SB 1771: Establishes Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
New Legislation and Executive Orders
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California has Established a $62M/yr Public Interest Energy Research Program
(PIER)
California’s Energy Future
Economy:Affordable Solutions
Quality:Reliable and
AvailableEnvironment:Protect and
Enhance
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Funded Program Areas to Date (in millions)
Supply $26.4Renewables, EPAG
Demand $40.1Buildings, Ind/Ag/Water
$34.9Strategic, Environmental
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Attributes for Addressing State Issues
Program Integration
Balanced Technology Portfolio-Temporal-Technology-Risk
TechnologyPartnerships- Universities- Industry- Federal
Focus onCalifornia- Specific to State needs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Our R&D Program must Address Future Market Scenario
Regulated
De-regulated
De-centralizedCentralized
Status Quo • New energy systems
• Same players
Supermarket of Choices
• Same energy systems
• New players
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Given Our Limited Budget and California Characteristics, We’re Not
Going to... Build the next GCM or other large scale
models Work on Generation IV nuclear technologies Work on most Vision 21 coal technologies Duplicate other efforts well-funded by DOE,
EPRI and others Duplicate specific R&D already funded by
industry
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
We will Couple the California Context with Precepts of Carbon Management
End-use efficiency and demand-side technologies buildings and appliance technologies manufacturing, agriculture, water efficiency storage and conversion technologies
Clean technologies renewables and small-scale fossil generation and control technologies that enhance environment power conditioning new technologies with collateral benefits
Enabling technology improvement and development development of sensors, models, systems for real-time pricing models, sensors, monitoring systems to improve T&D system operation
and integration of DG science base and model improvements to evaluate impacts of energy
systems development of new integrated systems and economic models to
improve understanding of deregulated market structure
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management and California: An Appropriate Paradigm for
State R&D Program
Environment Economy Reliability
Couple state and external
issues Long-term solutionscouple to current events
Integration with external
R&D provides flexibility
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management: An Umbrella for Global, National, State and Local Issues
Global
- Climate Change
- Resource Competition
Nation
- Security
- Environment
- Economy
State
-Affordability
- Environment
- Reliability
Local
- End use
- NIMBY