California Climate Change Programs: An Overview

Conference of the ReducersThe Hague

May 12, 2003

James D. BoydCalifornia Energy Commission

California – A Nation State

• Population of 34 million now, 41 million by 2010

• 5th largest economy in the world

• 5th largest consumer of energy in the world

• 2nd largest consumer of gasoline and diesel – only the total US uses more

• Lowest US per capita electricity consumption

• 5th most economical energy consuming economy

• 1.5% of world’s greenhouse gas emissions but low per capita emissions

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Water Year (October 1 - September 30)

Percent of Water Year Runoff

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Our Principal Reservoir - The Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking

Warmer winters have:

• Reduced snow pack• Earlier snow melt• Decreased Spring

runoff by 10%• Major effects on

water supply, agriculture, San Francisco Bay-Delta

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Year

MSL (Feet)

Sea Level is Rising Along California’s Coast

• Sea level has already

risen 7” in 150 years

• Levee stability and salt water intrusion concerns

• IPCC projects 4-12” sea level rise by 2050

• Present Delta system may not be viable with 8-12” sea level rise

1990-1999 U.S. and California Trends in GHG Emissions

0.940.960.981.001.021.041.061.081.101.121.14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Em

iss

ion

s n

orm

ali

zed

to

199

0 va

lue

s

California United States

Carbon Intensity for California and Selected States - 1999

California

Idaho

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Texas

United States

Vermont

South Dakota

D.C. Massachusetts

Connecticut

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

- 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Emissions/GSP (metric tons CO 2/thousand 1999 U.S. dollars)

Emissions/Capita (metric tons

CO2/person)

Carbon Intensity for California and Selected Countries - 1995

Greece

Australia

California

FranceSw eden

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Canada

United States

Italy

PortugalSpain

Denmark

Germany

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Emissions/GDP or GSP (metric tons CO 2/thousand 1995 U.S. dollars)

Emissions/Capita (metric tons

CO2/person)

Early Climate Change Analysis

• The California Legislature in 1988 directed the Energy Commission to study global warming trends that may affect energy supply and demand, economy, environment, agriculture and water supplies (SB 4420, Sher)

• The Energy Commission published “Global Climate Change: Potential Impacts and Policy Recommendations” in December 1991

California Climate Change Registry

• The Legislature in 2000 directed the Resources Agency to create a non-profit organization to register voluntary GHG emission inventories (SB 1771, Sher)

• State and Registry approval process for third-party certifiers

• Report direct and indirect emissions of CO2

• Report other Kyoto gases after three years

Joint Agency Climate Team

• JACT was formed to develop overall policy strategy for State of California

– Reduce GHG emissions through reductions and sequestration

– Adapt complex structures of the state to climate changes

• Data and analysis

• Research and demonstration

• Education and information outreach

• Government policies and programs

CEC Climate Change RD&D

• Legislation in 1996 created the Public Interest Energy Research Program at the Energy Commission

• A focus on climate change research

• Improve the state-of-science/art regarding climate change and its physical and economic impacts on California

• Produce policy relevant research that will allow the state to develop sound mitigation and adaptation strategies

CEC Climate Change RD&D Budget

Sequestration of CO2

• California Climate Registry to adopt protocols for accounting, reporting, and certifying carbon stocks and CO2 emissions sequestered by forest conservation and reforestation of native forests in California

• Project lands must be permanently dedicated to forest use through restrictions granted in perpetuity

• Project activities that are reported must exceed those already required

Renewable Portfolio Standards

• Requires that 20 percent of retail sales of electricity be provided with renewable energy by December 31, 2017

• Each electrical corporation shall increase its portfolio of renewable by at least 1% of retail sales per year

• Once an electrical corporation achieves 20%, it’s not required to increase procurement in following years

Sources of GHG in California

15Sou rce: Calif orni a En er gy Co mmi ss ion , Novem ber 2 002

Tra ns portat io n is Ca lifornia ’s La rg e s t So urce o f COCO22

Re sid ential

9%

Ind ustrial

13%

Transp ortatio n

58%

Electricity

Generatio n

16%

Commercial

4%

California Fossil Fuel CO2

Emission Sources, 1999

California Transportation Context

• Transportation represents one-half of California’s primary energy use and 58 percent of CO2 emissions

• Californians own more than 24 million registered vehicles and consume nearly 17 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel each year

• Californian’s spend more than $34 billion on transportation fuels each year

• California gasoline has the highest price volatility of any commodity traded in the US, except for California electricity

California Transportation Context

California Crude Oil Sources of Supply

47.5% 49.5% 49.6%

30.4% 24.8% 21.1%

22.1% 25.7% 29.2%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1999 2000 2001

Thousand of Barrels

Ca lifornia Ala s ka Fore ign

California Transportation Context

Refining Capacity

California Transportation Context

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Fuel Demand (bill. of gal. of gas equiv.)

Current California Refining Capacity

Forecast DemandFuel Displacement

Imported RefinedProducts

Reduced Demand

Transportation Fuel Demand Forecastto Increase Significantly

Reducing Petroleum Dependence

• Joint study by the Energy Commission and California Air Resources Board

• Forecast gasoline and diesel consumption in 2010 and 2020

• Recommend statewide goals and strategies to reducing gasoline and diesel consumption

Reducing Petroleum Dependence

Recommended Goals …

• Reduce demand for on-road gasoline and diesel to 15 percent below the 2000 level by 2020

• Establish national fuel economy standards that doubles the fuel efficiency of new cars, light trucks and SUVs

• Increase the use of alternative fuels to 15 percent by 2020

Reducing Petroleum Dependence

Recommended strategies …

• Near-Term– Efficiency Measures– Fischer-Tropsch Diesel

– Ethanol

• Mid- to Long-Term– Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy– Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles– LNG– Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

• California Air Resources Board shall adopt regulations by January 1, 2005 that:

“achieve the maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction in GHGs emitted by passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks”

• Interaction with the California Climate Change Registry

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

General Requirements …

• Report to Legislature and Governor by January 1, 2005

• Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 2006

• Regulations apply only to 2009 and later model years

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

The Regulations shall not require …

• Fees or taxes on vehicle, fuel or VMT• Ban sale of any vehicle category• Reduce vehicle weight• Reduce speed limit• Limit or reduce VMT

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

In Developing Regulations …

• Consider technical feasibility• Consider impact on State economy• Evaluate environmental and social

impacts• Consider alternative means of

compliance• Conduct public workshops• Grant credit for early reductions

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

• Establish MY 2000 baseline (used for calculation of credits for early compliance)

– CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs

– Black carbon, tropospheric ozone precursors

• More information needed for some pollutants

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

Technology assessment includes…

• Technology Symposium

• In-depth staff review

– Engine, transmission, catalyst– Air conditioning– Tires– Hybridization– Aerodynamics– Vehicle integration

• External expert assessment

Reducing Vehicle GHG EmissionsGHG

Reduction, %

Current Models Using This Technology

Off-the-Shelf Engine Technology1 Variable Valve Timing 3-8 BMW, Honda2 Cylinder Deactivation 3-6 Cadillac3 Smaller engine with supercharger 5-7 Mercedes4 Throttleless engine 3-6 BMW5 Hybrid electric drive 15-30 Toyota Prius

1 5-speed automatic 2-3 Ford Explorer (SUV)2 Continuously variable transmission 4-8 Saturn VUE (SUV)

1 Camless engine 152 Variable compression ratio 2-6

1 Automatic shifting manual 3-5 (vs 4 speed automatic)2 Advanced continous variable

transmission4-8 (vs 1st generation CVT)

Vehicle technologies1 Better aerodynamics, 10% 1-2 Mercedes E2 42 volt electronics 1-3 Toyota Crown (Japan)3 Integrated starter/generator, with

regeneration (engine off at idle)5-10 Toyota Prius

4 Lower rolling resistant tires/wheels 1-1.5 Honda Civic HXOther emerging technologies

1 Better catalyst to reduce N2O & CH4 tbd2 HFC-free air conditioner tbd

Technology

Off-the-Shelf Transmission Technology

Emerging Engine Technology

Emerging Transmission Technology

Reducing Vehicle GHG Emissions

Detailed technical workInitial workshop (GHG inventory) December 02Symposium on vehicle technology March 03Additional workshops VariousSummary workshop October 03Board update November 03

Draft staff proposalRelease staff draft May 04Workshop June 04

Final staff proposal July 04

Board adoption September 04

Report to Legislature/Governor January 05