California Association of Realtors

GAD Institute

Chris GosselinSenior Political Representative

National Association of Realtors

August 19, 2015

31%

61%

Public Still Skeptical On National Outlook

Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015. 2

Percentage Responding to Question:“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headedin the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong

track?”

Public Outlook for Economy Gradually Improving

*N.B.: Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the past year…”Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, March 1-5, 2015. 3

Percentage Responding to Question: “During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get

better or worse?”*

21%

29%% Better/Worse

Better Worse

past 5 years

Source: Conference Board, June 2015; Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, June 2015. 4

Consumers Optimism Improving But Still Low by Historical Measure

Consumer Confidence = 101.4

Ind

ex

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®

Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Confidence Index ® and Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment = 96.1

48%

48%

Public Nearly Split on Obama’s Job Approval

Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015; Gallup.com, June 22-28, 2015. 5

NBC/WSJ’s Presidential Job Approval

Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval

49%

47%

Public Opinion Split on Democratic Party

Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015. 6

NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Democratic Party

36%

38%

Public Holds Negative Opinion of GOP

Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015. 7

NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Republican Party

30%

43%

Share of Self-Described Independents Grows at Expense of Both Parties

Source: Gallup.com, 2015. 8

Gallup’s Party Affiliation SurveyResponding to question: “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or

an independent?”

44% Independents

28%Democrats

27%Republicans

Congressional Partisanship Over Time

Source: Senate.gov, 2014; Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives, 2014; CNN, 2014.

9

GOP Sweeps Competitive Races

Recommendations and detected threats

OHWV

VA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DE

MD

AK

HI

NC: Thom Tillis (R) won a slim upset victory over Kay Hagan (D)

AR: Tom Cotton (R) easily defeated Sen. Mark Pryor, helping to complete Arkansas’ transformation into a Republican stronghold

AK: Dan Sullivan (R) beat Sen. Mark Begich (D) in a close race that took an addition week to count the votes

LA: Bill Cassidy (R) beat Sen. Landrieu (D) in a runoff election announced on December 6, 2014

KY: Sen. McConnell (R) handily defeated Alison Grimes (D) on his way to becoming majority leader

GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a runoff, blowing out former non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn

Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, 2014.

MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R)

Republican Victories

Democratic Victories

SD: Mike Rounds (R), despite seeing outside money pour in against him at the last minute after reports of a scandal during his time as governor, won an easy victory over Rick Weiland (D) and former Sen. Larry Pressler (I)

CO: Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall easily after Udall ran a poor one-note campaign on reproductive health that voters didn’t engage with

NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) held off a national tide against Democrats, holding on to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R)

KS: Sen. Roberts (R), after facing bad polling numbers earlier this summer, brought in a team of top-tier Republican strategists and won re-election by a wide margin over Greg Orman (I)

IA: Joni Ernst (R) handily won election over gaffe-prone Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the race for Sen. Tom Harkin (D)’s seat

VA: Mark Warner (D) defeated Ed Gillespie (R) in an unexpectedly close race that almost went to a recount

Source: National Journal Research, 2015.

Republicans Hold Majority of Senate Seats Up For Election in 2016

Analysis• The U.S. Senate elections in 2016 feature 22 seats with Republican incumbents, 7 seats with Democratic

incumbents, and 5 open seats• The five open seats are in the Democratic strongholds of California and Maryland, Republican-leaning

Indiana, and the swing states of Nevada and Florida

2016 U.S. Senate Elections by Incumbent Party

Recommendations and detected threats

OHWV

VA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DEMD

AK

HI

Republican-Held Seats

Democratic-Held Seats

Open Seats No Election in 2016

Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.

Republicans Make Significant Gains in House

AnalysisRepublicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even

larger than expected

House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections

AK

Democratic Hold

Democratic Gain

Republican Gain

Republican Hold

Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247Independents: 0Undecided: 0

Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.

Republicans Win Record Majority in House

Analysis• Republicans won a total of 247 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928• An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing

legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections

Control of the 114th House (2015-2017)

AK

Democratic

Republican

Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247Independents: 0Undecided: 0

Cook Political Report Rates the Districts

Source: Cook Political Report, 2015. 14

Analysis• According to the Cook Partisan Vote Index, the number of swing seats in the House has dropped

45%, from 164 in 1998 to 90 in 2014• Fewer swing seats means more polarization in Congress• As district populations grow increasingly liberal or conservative, incumbents fear radical primary

challengers

House Makeup by Cook Partisan Vote Index

In House, Fewer “Swing” Seats, More Polarization

Numberof Seats

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312 324 336 348 360 372 384 396 408 420 432

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Incumbent Party Win Margin

21 Incumbent Party Losses(15 Losses, 6 Open Seat Takeovers)

15 Wins < 5%

18 Wins Between 5 - 10%

317 Races Won by 20%+

Pete Agu

ilar

Jim Costa

Scott Pete

rs

Mike Honda

John Garamen

di

Raul R

uiz

Jeff Den

ham

David Vala

dao

Linda S

anch

ez

Judy Chu

Lorett

a San

chez

Tom M

cClin

tock

Lucill

e Royb

al-Alla

rd

Dana R

ohrabach

er

Brad Sh

erman

Mark DeS

aulnier

Paul C

ook

Edward

Royce

Eric S

wallwell

Duncan Hunter

Doris M

atsui

Tony C

arden

as

Kevin M

cCart

hy

Mike Th

ompson

Jackie

Speie

r

Karen Bass

Barbara

Lee

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

1 incumbent party loss

7 races won by <5%

3 races won by 5% -10%

32 races won by more than 20%

California Incumbent Party Win Margin

Pete Aguilar

Maxine W

aters

Grace Napolita

no

Mark Takano

Zoe Lofgren

Julia

Brownley

Tony Cardenas

John Garamendi

Ted Lieu

Anna Eshoo

Karen Bass

Scott Peters

Brad Sherman

Eric Swallw

ell

Jackie Speier

Raul Ruiz

Doug LaMalfa

Adam Schiff

Darrell I

ssa

Ken Calvert

Mimi W

alters

Paul Cook

David Valadao

Edward Royce

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Did much better than same-party 2012 presidential candidate

Did much worse than same-party 2012 presidential candidate

California Congressional Same-Party Presidential Outperformance

Bera

AmadorCosta

KhannaCapps

Gorell

Aguilar

DeMaio$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

Total amount spent by candidates in CA races won by <5%

2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014Bera McNerney Costa Capps Brownley Peters

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1.60%

0.40%

9.40%

4.30%

10.20%

0.90%

9.60%

3.30%4.00%

2.00%

1.00%

3.20%

Win Margin in Competitive CA Districts, 2012-2014

Sam

Farr

Jim Costa

Scott Pete

rs

Lois

Capps

John G

aram

endi

Jared H

uffman

Duncan H

unter

Raul R

uiz

Nancy

Pelosi

Mike

Thom

pson

Barbar

a Lee

Mike

Honda

Juan

Var

gas

Susa

n Dav

is

Brad Sh

erman

Eric

Swall

well

Zoe Lo

fgren

Jerry

McN

erney

Mim

i Walt

ers

Karen Bas

s

Max

ine Wat

ers

Adam Sc

hiff

Steve

Knight

Mar

k Tak

ano

Grace

Nap

olitan

o

Norma T

orres

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Drop in Turnout by CD from 2012 to 2014

Dissecting the Gridlock

Categorizing the Congress

• Democrats divide along a left/right spectrum

• Republicans divide along an establishment/anti-establishment spectrum

• Keystone Pipeline• Progressive Caucus

Budget• Mortgage Choice Act• Trade Promotion

Authority• Removal of U.S. Forces

from Syria & Iraq

• Election of the Speaker• Homeland Security

Appropriations• Federal Support for

Amtrak• Medicare Access &

CHIP Reauthorization• Trade Promotion

Authority

House Democratic Factions

BecerraChuCardenasHahnHondaHuffmanLeeLofgrenLowenthalMatsuiNapolitanoRoybal-AllardLinda SanchezTakano

BassCappsFarrLieuMcNerneyPelosiSchiffSwalwellTorresWaters

BrownleyGaramendiSpeierThomponVargas

AguilarBeraDavisSherman

Peters Costa

House Republican Factions

CalvertMcCarthyNunesValadao

DenhamRoyce

CookIssaKnightLaMalfa

HunterMcClintockRohrabacher

RPAC Funding Process

Funds available without CREPAC / RPAC trustee approval:

• In-State Funds - $1,000 for use in home district by FPC– Contact Lisa Edwards at CAR to request in-state

funds– 2 week request deadline– $500 minimum– Check is sent to CAR, then to FPC for delivery

• DC Funds – $2,000 for Jerry Giovaniello to use to attend events in DC

RPAC Funding Process

Remaining funds subject to trustee approval (incumbents):

RPAC Funding Process – Open Seats

Additional Support for Federal Candidates

• Opportunity Races–Levels 1-3

• Independent Expenditures• President’s Circle

Opportunity Races 2014

California Members with outstanding FPC Funds

Doug LaMalfaJohn GaramendiMike ThompsonJerry McNerneyJackie SpeierEric SwalwellJim CostaMike Honda

Anna EshooSam FarrDevin NunesJulia BrownleyTony CardenasGrace NapolitanoTed LieuXavier Becerra

Raul RuizEd RoyceMaxine WatersAlan LowenthalDarrell IssaDuncan HunterJuan Vargas

Cook Political Report Race Ratings

Cash on Hand as of June 30 Filing PeriodGar

amen

di

Eggm

anCosta

Tech

erra

Honda

Schneid

erAch

adija

nAgu

ilar

Barra

gan

Peter

s

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

Contact Information:

Chris GosselinSenior Political RepresentativeNational Association of REALTORS®

(202) 383-7516cgosselin@realtors.orgTwitter: @cbgosselin