Calibration and Validation of a 3D- Groundwater Model for ... · First International Colloquium...

First International Colloquium REZAS12Morocco, 14-16 November, 2012

MSc. Hasan SirhanGeohydraulic and Engineering Hydrology 1

Authors

Hasan Sirhan* and Manfred Koch*

* Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology,Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Kassel University, Germany

Calibration and Validation of a 3D- Groundwater Model for the

Gaza Coastal Aquifer, South Palestine

First International Colloquium REZAS12: " Water resources in the arid and semi-arid regions-challenges and prospects. Case of the African continent"

Beni Mellal, Morocco, November 14-16, 2012



Introduction

Hydraulically, according to the Ghyben-Herzberg relation (hs = 40 hf ) the drop of

Water level can give an indication of the occurrence of salinity on groundwater.

Numerical ground water level modeling is an important task over the long run for:

• Management of the groundwater resources to maintain the ground water equilibrium system.

•To control ground water level fluctuations.

Calibration is an important step in groundwater modeling:

•To check if the model can reasonably well mimic the groundwater flow system.

• To fit the observed and calculated hydraulic heads with an acceptable error.

• Based on an iterative approach.



Saltwater intrusion can be defined as the invaded of seawater inland into

fresh groundwater aquifers as a results of:

• Steeply overexploitation of the aquifer to meet the municipal water

demand as well as extended irrigation activities.

• Destruction of natural barriers had led to reduction or reversal of a

groundwater gradient under unsteady-state conditions, where denser

saline water displace fresh water.



• High chloride concentration is used as an indicator that seawater intrusion is occurring.

Terms describing degree of salinity as used by USGS

Description TDS (mg/l)Fresh < 1000Slightly saline 1000 – 3000Moderately saline 3000 – 10000Very saline 10000 – 35000Brine > 35000

The increase of salinity in water causes:

� An increase in blood pressure for people,

� Extreme damage to the soil and reduced crops yield,

� Corrosion of water metal pipes.



The simplest analyses of seawater intrusion adopt the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship,

which is based on the sharp interface method, assumes that:

� The saltwater and freshwater are immiscible and no mixing between the two fluids.

� Attributed to a hydrostatic equilibrium existing between the two fluids.

hs = 40 hf

hs = hf � �� −��

Ghyben-Herzberg theory, Hydrostatic equilibrium bet ween freshwater/seawater interface

(Ghyben, 1989; Herzberg, 1901)�Salt water occurred

underground at a depth

‘‘hs’’ below sea level about

40 times the height of the

fresh water above sea level

‘‘hf ’’.



Presence of salinity in coastal aquifers can be detected by:

� Geophysical Techniques : by using the profiling technique of frequency domain

electromagnetics (FDEM ).

� Geochemical Analysis (Isotops)

� Numerical Models

Most popular models for seawater intrusion

� Visual MODFLOW Pro 4.2 integrates SEAWAT

� SUTRA

� FEFLOW



• Not PREVENTING seawater intrusion

• But CONTROLING seawater intrusion

Once the groundwater is contaminated by saline water, it is very difficult to

bring it back to its original quality, thus the clean-up of salinity-polluted aquifers

will be a major challenge for the future.

Does proper management prevent salinization of aquifers?



The Study Area

Gaza Strip



The Study AreaGaza StripGeography

Palestine is composed of two-separated

areas, the Gaza strip and the West Bank.

The Gaza Strip is a very small area

located at the eastern coast of the

Mediterranean sea in the southwest of

Palestine.

Its length 40 km while its width varies

between 6 km in the north to 12 km in

the south, with an avg. area of 365Km2.



Population change in the Gaza Strip within the period 1947-2035

1,865,317

2,215,411

2,631,213

3,125,056

3,711,586

1,570,547

1,517,436

1,466,122

1,416,543

1,023,000

963,000

747,200

449,600

454,900

280,0000

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1947-1

9481948

-1967

1968-1

9801980

-1992

1994-1

996 1997200720082009201020152020202520302035

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

•The population density in the Gaza

Strip is the highest in the world of

almost 2,802 persons/Km2.

•The average annual growth rate is

3.2%.

• More than 1.5 Million inhabitants

are living now within the area of

365 km2,. By year 2020 the

population will be around 2.3

Million

Demography



• The Coastal Aquifer extends from Gaza in the south to Mount Carmel in the north along some 120 km of Mediterranean coastline, and it is the only source of water supply.

• The Gaza coastal aquifer represents part of the whole coastal aquifer.

• The width of the aquifer varies from 3-10 km in the north to about 20 km in the south.

• Under natural conditions, the groundwater flow in the Gaza Strip is towards the Mediterranean Sea.

Hydrogeology



Geology

•The Upper Sub-Aquifer

The uppermost aquifer

(classified as unconfined A-

aquifer).

•The Middle Sub-Aquifer

This aquifer classified as

confined/unconfined B1/B2-

aquifer.

The Lower Sub-Aquifer

The lower aquifer (classified

as confined/unconfined

C-aquifer).



Under steady state condition the overall aquifer balance of the Gaza Strip can

be represented as:

Balance = Sum (Inflows) – Sum (Outflows).

Inflows

• Effective recharge (rainfall)

• Lateral inflow

• Total return flow and

• seawater intrusion

Outflows

• Domestic abstraction

• Agricultural abstraction

• Groundwater discharge



Lateral InflowLateral InflowSeawater IntrusionSeawater Intrusion

Recharge (Rain)Recharge (Rain)

Municipal & IrrigationAbstractionMunicipal & IrrigationAbstraction

Return Flow:Irrigation,W ater Pipe Leakage &Wastewater

Return Flow:Irrigation,W ater Pipe Leakage &Wastewater

Groundwater Discharge



• The coastal aquifer holds approximately

5000×106 m3 of different groundwater

quality.

• Only 1400×106 m3 of this is freshwater,

with Chloride (Cl-) content of less than

250 mg/l.

• That means approximately 70%of the

aquifer are brackish or saline with a

chloride concentration exceeding 250

mg/l.Only 30%are fresh water found

mainly in the Northern area.

Groundwater quality



This figure represents the chloride concentration at some specified monitoring wells in

the Gaza Strip. It is clear that most of the wells have a chloride concentration more than

the WHO (250 mg/l), where the seawater intrusion had occurred.



The Numerical model

Visual MODFLOW model:

Visual MODFLOW package is a coupled three -

dimensional groundwater flow and

contaminant transport model based on the

finite-difference method and give the most

complete and powerful graphical interface. The

linkage used MODFLOW-2000 (Harbaugh and

McDonald, 1996) and MT3DMS (Zheng and

Wang, 1999).

SEAWAT 2000 package has now been included in Visual MODFLOW, allowing modeling of variable density flow such as seawater intrusion modeling.



Model Setup

The finite-difference grid method in

Visual MODFLOW is formulated as

such:

• The model domain grid contains of

157 rows, 50 columns, and 7 layers.

• The model of Gaza coastal aquifer

has uniform cell sizes of 300 m by

300 m in the horizontal plane.

The model domain with the grid origin and boundaries



Boundary Assigned

Neumann boundary condition

• A Neumann influx-boundary condition was assigned at the top of the aquifer at the land surface representing groundwater recharge (infiltration).

Lateral no-flow boundariesA zero flux imposed on parts of the northern boundary with Israel border, and southern boundary with Egypt.

b) Horizontal boundary conditions

• A Neumann-type of no-flux boundary conditions: It represents the base of the model boundary

2) Dirichlet boundary conditionAssigned to the residual parts of the left and right boundariesConstant flux boundaryconstant flux representing the lateral inflow to the domainConstant-head boundaryh = 0 m ASL along the coastline.



Neumann influx

boundary

Neumann influx

boundary

Dirichlet BC.

Constant head

boundary

Dirichlet BC.

Constant head

boundary

Neumann no-

flow boundary

Neumann no-

flow boundary

Dirichlet BC.

Constant flux

boundary

Dirichlet BC.

Constant flux

boundary



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A-I-12

A-I-13

A-I-14

A-I-15

A-I-16

A-I-17

A-I-19

A-I-20

A-I-21

A-I-22

A-I-23

A-I-24A-I-25

A-I-26

A-I-27A-I-28

A-I-29

A-I-3

A-I-30

A-I-31

A-I-32

A-I-33

A-I-34

A-I-35

A-I-36A-I-37

A-I-38

A-I-39

A-I-4

A-I-40A-I-41

A-I-42

A-I-43

A-I-44

A-I-45

A-I-46 A-I-47

A-I-48

A-I-49

A-I-5

A-I-50

A-I-6A-I-7A-I-8A-I-9

B-I-1

B-I-2 B-I-3

E-I-10E-I-11

E-I-13

E-I-14E-I-15E-I-16

E-I-22

E-I-23

E-I-24E-I-25

E-I-6

E-I-8E-I-9

R-I-89

R-I-90

F-I-1

F-I-10

F-I-100

F-I-101

F-I-102F-I-103F-I-104F-I-105

F-I-106F-I-107

F-I-109

F-I-11

F-I-110

F-I-111

F-I-112

F-I-113

F-I-114

F-I-115

F-I-116

F-I-118

F-I-119

F-I-12

F-I-120F-I-121

F-I-122

F-I-123

F-I-124

F-I-125

F-I-126

F-I-127

F-I-128

F-I-129

F-I-13

F-I-130

F-I-14

F-I-15

F-I-16

F-I-17

F-I-18

F-I-19

F-I-2

F-I-20

F-I-21

F-I-22F-I-23

F-I-25

F-I-26F-I-27F-I-28

F-I-29

F-I-3

F-I-30F-I-31

F-I-32

F-I-33F-I-34F-I-35

F-I-36

F-I-37

F-I-38

F-I-39

F-I-4

F-I-40

F-I-41

F-I-42

F-I-43

F-I-44

F-I-47

F-I-48F-I-49

F-I-5

F-I-50

F-I-51

F-I-52

F-I-53

F-I-54

F-I-55

F-I-56F-I-57

F-I-58F-I-59 F-I-6F-I-60F-I-61

F-I-62

F-I-63

F-I-64F-I-65

F-I-66F-I-67

F-I-68F-I-69 F-I-7

F-I-70

F-I-71

F-I-73F-I-74

F-I-75

F-I-76F-I-78 F-I-79

F-I-8F-I-80

F-I-81

F-I-82F-I-83

F-I-84

F-I-85

F-I-86F-I-87

F-I-88

F-I-89

F-I-9F-I-90

F-I-91F-I-92

F-I-93F-I-94F-I-95

F-I-96F-I-97

F-I-98F-I-99

R-I-1

R-I-10

R-I-11R-I-12

R-I-13R-I-14

R-I-15

R-I-16R-I-17

R-I-18

R -I-19

R-I-2

R-I-20

R-I-21

R-I-22

R-I-23

R-I-24

R-I-25

R-I-26

R-I-27

R-I-28R-I-29

R-I-3

R-I-30

R-I-31

R-I-32

R-I-34R-I-35

R-I-36R-I-37

R-I-38R-I-39

R-I-4

R-I-40

R-I-41R-I-42

R-I-43

R-I-45

R-I-46

R-I-47

R -I-48

R-I-5

R-I-50

R-I-51

R-I-52

R-I-53

R-I-54

R -I-55

R-I-56

R-I-57

R-I-58R-I-59

R-I-6

R-I-60R-I-61R-I-62

R-I-63

R-I-64R-I-65

R-I-66

R-I-68

R-I-69

R-I-7

R-I-70

R-I-71R-I-72R-I-73

R -I-74

R-I-75

R-I-76

R-I-77

R-I-78

R-I-79

R-I-80R-I-81R-I-82

R-I-83

R-I-84

R-I-85R-I-86

R-I-87

R-I-9

R-I-91

R-I-92

R-I-93

E-I-18

E-I-19E-I-20E-I-21

E-I-17

E-I-5

G-I-1G-I-2

G-I-3

G-I-4

G-I-47

G-I-10G-I-11

G-I-12G-I-13

G-I-14G-I-15G-I-16G-I-17G-I-18G-I-19

G-I-20

G-I-21G-I-22

G-I-23G-I-24

G-I-25G-I-26

G-I-27

G-I-28

G-I-29G-I-30G-I-31G-I-32

G-I-33G-I-34

G-I-35

G-I-36G-I-37G-I-38

G-I-39

G-I-40

G-I-41

G-I-42

G-I-44G-I-45

G-I-46

G-I-48

G-I-49

G-I-5G-I-6G-I-7

G-I-8G-I-9

H-I-1

H-I-10

H-I-11

H-I-12

H-I-13H -I-14

H-I-15

H-I-16

H-I-17

H-I-19

H-I-2H-I-20H-I-21

H-I-23H-I-24

H-I-25

H-I-26 H-I-27

H-I-28

H-I-29

H-I-3

H-I-30

H-I-31

H-I-32H-I-33

H-I-34H-I-35

H-I-36

H -I-37H -I-38

H-I-39

H-I-4

H-I-40

H-I-41

H-I-42

H-I-43H-I-44H -I-45

H-I-46

H-I-47

H-I-48

H-I-49

H-I-5

H-I-50

H-I-51

H-I-52

H-I-53

H-I-54H-I-55

H-I-56

H-I-6H -I-7

H-I-8H-I-9

J-I-1

J-I-10

J-I-11J-I-12

J-I-13J-I-14

J-I-15J-I-16J-I-17J-I-18

J-I-19

J-I-2J-I-20J-I-21

J-I-22

J-I-23

J-I-24

J-I-25

J-I-26J-I-27

J-I-28

J-I-29

J-I-3

J-I-30J-I-31

J-I-34J-I-35

J-I-36 J-I-37

J-I-38

J-I-39

J-I-4

J-I-40

J-I-41J-I-42J-I-43J-I-44

J-I-46

J-I-47

J-I-48J-I-49

J-I-5

J-I-50J-I-51

J-I-52

J-I-53 J-I-54

J-I-55

J-I-56

J-I-57

J-I-58J-I-59

J-I-6

J-I-60

J-I-61

J-I-62

J-I-63

J-I-64

J-I-65

J-I-66J-I-67

J-I-68

J-I-69

J-I-7

J-I-70

J-I-71

J-I-72

J-I-73

J-I-74

J-I-75

J-I-76

J-I-77

J-I-78

J-I-79

J-I-8

J-I-80

J-I-81J-I-82

J-I-83

J-I-85J-I-86

J-I-87

J-I-88

J-I-9

J-I-90

S-I-1

S-I-10

S-I-11

S-I-12

S-I-13 S-I-14S-I-15S-I-17S-I-18

S-I-19

S-I-2

S-I-20

S-I-21

S-I-22

S-I-23

S-I-24

S-I-26

S-I-27

S-I-28

S-I-29

S-I-3

S-I-30

S-I-31

S-I-32

S-I-33

S-I-34

S-I-36

S-I-37

S-I-38

S-I-39

S-I-4

S-I-40

S-I-41

S-I-5S-I-6

S-I-7S-I-8 S-I-9

L-I-1

L-I-10

L-I-100

L-I-102L -I-103L-I-104L-I-105L-I-106L-I-108

L-I-109

L-I-11

L-I-110

L-I-111L-I-112L -I-113L -I-114L-I-115

L-I-116L-I-117L-I-118

L-I-119L-I-120L -I-121L-I-122L-I-123L-I-124L -I-125

L-I-126L-I-127

L-I-128

L-I-129

L -I-13

L-I-130L-I-131L-I-132

L-I-133 L -I-134L-I-135L-I-136L-I-137

L-I-138L-I-139

L-I-14

L-I-140

L-I-141L-I-142

L-I-143

L-I-144

L-I-146

L-I-147L-I-148

L-I-149

L-I-15

L-I-150L-I-151L-I-152L-I-153L-I-154

L-I-155L -I-156

L-I-157L-I-159

L-I-16

L-I-160

L-I-161

L-I-162L-I-163L-I-164L-I-165L-I-166L-I-167

L-I-168L-I-169

L-I-17

L -I-171

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L-I-173L-I-175

L-I-177L-I-178

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L -I-185

L-I-186L-I-187

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L-I-193L-I-194L -I-195L-I-196L-I-197L-I-198

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L -I-200L-I-201L-I-202L -I-203L-I-204

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L -I-244L-I-245

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L-I-250L-I-251L-I-252L-I-253

L-I-255

L-I-256L-I-257L-I-258L-I-259

L-I-26

L-I-260L-I-261L-I-262

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L-I-265L-I-266L-I-267L -I-268L-I-269

L-I-27

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L-I-277L-I-278L -I-279

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L-I-42L-I-43

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L-I-45L -I-46

L-I-47L-I-49

L-I-5

L-I-50L-I-51L-I-52L-I-53

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L-I-55L-I-56L-I-57

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L-I-6

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L-I-63L-I-64

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L-I-67L-I-68L-I-69

L-I-7

L-I-70L-I-72L-I-73L-I-74

L-I-75L-I-77

L-I-78

L -I-79

L-I-8

L-I-80

L-I-82L-I-83L-I-84L-I-85

L-I-86L-I-88L -I-89

L-I-9

L -I-90L-I-92 L-I-93

L-I-94

L -I-95

L-I-96L-I-97

L-I-98

O-I-4

P-I-111P-I-112P-I-113P-I-114

P-I-115P-I-117

P-I-120P-I-121

P-I-122

P-I-123

P-I-104

P-I-106

P-I-108P-I-109

P-I-110

P-I-89P-I-95

P-I-96P-I-97P-I-98 P-I-118

P-I-124P-I-93

P-I-1P-I-10

P-I-100P-I-101

P-I-102

P-I-107

P-I-11

P-I-125

P-I-126P-I-128

P-I-131

P-I-14

P-I-15

P-I-16

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P-I-2

P-I-20

P-I-21

P-I-23

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P-I-25

P-I-26

P-I-27P-I-28

P-I-29

P-I-3

P-I-30P-I-31

P-I-32P-I-33

P-I-34P-I-35

P-I-36P-I-37

P-I-38

P-I-4

P-I-40

P-I-41P-I-42P-I-43

P-I-44

P-I-45

P-I-46P-I-47

P-I-48

P-I-5

P-I-50

P-I-51

P-I-52

P-I-53P-I-54

P-I-55

P-I-56

P-I-57

P-I-58P-I-59

P-I-6

P-I-60

P-I-61

P-I-63

P-I-64P-I-65 P-I-66

P-I-68P-I-69

P-I-7

P-I-70

P-I-71P-I-72

P-I-74P-I-75

P-I-76

P-I-77P-I-79

P-I-8

P-I-80P-I-81

P-I-82

P-I-83P-I-84

P-I-85

P-I-86P-I-87P-I-88

P-I-9

P-I-91

P-I-92

P-I-99

D-I-1

D -I-2

D-I-3

R-I-8

P-I-130P-I-90

80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

110000

0 5000 10000 15000

Spatial distribution of the pumping wells across the Gaza Strip

Wells abstraction

More than 3850 active water wells

have been used in the model as

internal hydrologic stress and

distributed between agricultural,

municipal, and domestic wells in

year 2000



Model Simulation

The groundwater flow of the aquifer system was simulation in two steps.

� Firstly, steady- state water levels for the year 2000 were taken for the steady-

state calibration of

• Horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

• Vertical hydraulic conductivity (10% of Kh)

� In the second step transient conditions between years 2001-2007, were

used to calibrate the storage coefficients, the specific yields and Porosity .

Calibrated ParametersThe calibrated are based on trial and error approach,

• It is carried out to check that the model can reasonably well emulate the groundwater

flow system to fit the observed hydraulic heads with an acceptable error.

• The results show the calibrated parameters are well-calibrated.



Results of St-St. Calibration

The calculated versus observed

heads and the summary of steady

state calibration statistics are

graphed and presented in the

following Figures

(A)

(B)

(A) Observed initial heads for year 2000, (B) Resul ting heads for steady state simulation for year 2000.



Calculated vs. observed heads and summary of steady state calibration statistics

The results indicate that the

model represent the behavior

of the aquifer quite well under

the existing conditions as such

as:

� R = 90.4 %

� SEE = 0.084 m

� RMS = 1.105 m

� Normalised RMS = 6.124 %

< 10 % (preferable by many

modeler.



Water Balance

The steady state mass balance was prepared and the total aquifer system inputs and outputs were

calculated and summarized in the table below:

Net Inflows Quantity (Mm3/y)Percent of

Total (%)

Recharge 46.62 44

Lateral inflow 23.88 22.56

Sea intruded 35.39 33.43

Total 105.89 100

Net Outflows (M m3/y) Quantity (Mm3/y)

Wells 104.93 99.09

Discharge to the sea 0.96 0.9

Total 105.89 100

Net balance =In - Out %Discrepancy = 0.00

Summary of year 2000 water balance from model calib ration .

Percentage volumetric water balance components



Calibration has been carried out for the year 2001-2005, while validation is applied

between the period 2005-2007, since this step is important. The purpose of model

validation is to establish greater confidence in the model by using the set of calibrated

parameter values and stresses .

Observed and calculated heads versus time for well A53.



Cont.

Observed and calculated heads versus time for well E45.



Cont.

Observed and calculated heads versus time for well L47



Model sensitivity analysis

A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to;

• Establish the effect of uncertainty resulting in inaccurate estimation or definition of

boundary conditions, aquifer parameters and stresses on the calibrated model.

The main type of prediction uncertainties is Parameter uncertainties, where it

Can be quantified relatively well for both the hydraulic conductivity and recharge.



Conclusion

The results showed that the simulated groundwater model obtained good

agreements between modelled and observed hydraulic heads for both the

calibration and validation periods. So, that the behavior of the aquifer is

represented quite well under the existing conditions.

The calibrated groundwater model will be used for the study of groundwater

management strategies of the Gaza aquifer.



End

Thank you

Calibration and Validation of a 3D- Groundwater Model for ... · First International Colloquium...

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