Calgary & Area - Alberta...Economic Growth: Change in Real GDP - Alberta vs Calgary Region Calgary...

Financial Forecasting Model Update Alberta Children’s Services Early Childhood Development Branch

This Calgary and Area Employment Forecast is a report published twice a year and provides a projection of employment demand and worker availability in the Calgary Region.

Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

Calgary & Area Employment Forecast

Table of Contents..........................................................................................The Economy! 1........................................................................................................Introduction! 1

...............................................................................................Alberta Economy! 1............................................................................................Provincial Economic Growth! 2

............................................................................................................Population Growth! 5

.....................................................................................................................Employment! 6

...........................................................................Industry Sector Outlook! 8...........................................................Overview of the Industry Sector Outlook! 8

.......................................................................................Industry Overview and Forecast! 8

............................................................................................Worker Demand and Supply! 8

...........................................................Labour Supply and Demand - EXAMPLE Industry! 9

.....................................................................................................Oil and Gas! 11..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 11

.................................................................................................Output and Employment! 11

............................................................................................................................Outlook! 12

..........................................................................................Labour Supply and Demand! 14

....................................................................................................Construction! 16..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 16


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 16


.....................................................................................................Retail Trade! 21..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 21


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 21


..............................................Professional, Scientific and Technical Services! 24..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 24

Calgary and Area Employment Forecast Report - 2017 Summer


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 24


........................................................................................................Education! 26..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 26


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 26


..............................................................................................................Health! 30..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 30


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 30


......................................................................................Public Administration! 33..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 33


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 34


.......................................................................Energy-Related Manufacturing! 36..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 36


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 37


.............................................................................Trucking and Warehousing! 40..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 40


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 41


...............................................................Accommodation and Food Services! 43..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 43


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 43



.....................................................Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE)! 47..........................................................................................Industry Sector Composition! 47


............................................................................................................................Outlook! 48


.............................................................................Recruitment Gap Summary! 51.............................................................................Match and Skill Labour Market Gaps! 51

............................................................................Occupation Forecast! 52.................................................................................Employment By Industry! 52

..................................................................................Industry Sector Outlook Summary! 52

..............................................................................Employment Growth by Occupation! 55

...................................................Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2017! 56

........................................Occupations With Stagnant Demand - Calgary Region 2017! 58

....................................................Appendix A: Forecast Methodology! 59....................................Labour Market Demand and Supply Model (LMDSM)! 59

..........................................................................................................Model Description! 60

.......................Appendix B: Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts! 66


The Economy

IntroductionUnderstanding changes in the labour market requires a deep investigation into each of the industry sectors that affect the demand for workers. In addition, the availability of workers is affected by various labour market factors as well as migration and demographic changes.

To help understand the current economic conditions that drive the Calgary and Area labour market, a forecast of economic growth province wide has been prepared for each of over 60 two- and three-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) groups. Using this provincial forecast, allocations of regional economic employment growth have been developed for the Calgary Region. These forecasts of labour demand have been compared with the available supply of workers to identify where existing and expected labour market worker shortages can be expected to exist, and where there may be a surplus of workers.

This section of the Calgary and Area Employment Forecast report provides an overview of the provincial economy as context for the Calgary Region employment demand and labour supply availability forecasts. The economic prospects for the provincial economy play a significant role in how the Calgary Region will perform, both economically and with respect to the labour market. Other influences nationally and internationally that affect both Alberta and the Calgary Region have been considered in developing a view of how the provincial economy will change in the near-term.

Attached as appendices is an overview of the forecasting approach (Appendix A) and detail of the employment forecasts by occupation (Appendix B).

Alberta EconomyDuring the 2015-16 period, the Alberta economy underwent significant adjustments resulting from the downturn in energy prices and the implications for the energy sector and other industries directly related to the energy sector. These adjustments continue and have created significant uncertainty regarding expectations for economic growth and what will lead this growth. While the benchmark price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil appears to have stabilized in the $45-$50 (USD) range since reaching a low of about $26 in early 2016, many new projects remain economically unfeasible given prevailing price trends. Output and hiring in the energy sector (and correlated industries) should pick up in 2017 and beyond, but is unlikely to return to the levels of 2013-14, when WTI traded at an average of nearly $100. Volatility of WTI prices for oil are magnified considering that most Alberta producers receive Western Canadian Select prices for their product, which traded at


THE ECONOMYThe Calgary economy is impacted by world and local markets. This section provides an overview of the economic prospects for the Province of Alberta.

1

an average discount of nearly US$14/bbl relative to WTI in 2016, and an average discount of more than US$12/bbl through the first eight months of 2017.1

Applications Management Consulting has constructed a provincial forecast of economic activity and employment that closely follows the economic forecast prepared for the first quarter update to the provincial budget (August 2017). This forecast has been developed for each of over 60 NAICS industry groups. Within this provincial forecast, economic and employment growth, by industry sector, has been allocated to the Calgary and Area regional economy.

Provincial Economic GrowthIn April of 2017, as part of the provincial budget, a forecast of economic growth was provided in the Fiscal Plan - Economic Outlook.2 Based on assumptions regarding the price of oil and other variables, it was projected that the economic output of Alberta, in real terms, would increase by 2.6% in 2017, followed by a more moderate increase in 2018 (2.2%) and growth in the range of 2.5% in 2019 and 2020.

In August (2017) the province provided a 2017-18 Q1 Fiscal Update and Economic Statement that modified these projections.3 The projection of real economic output was upgraded to an increase of 3.1% in 2017. Expected real economic growth in 2018 was also upgraded to a rate of 2.3%.

Applications’ projection of provincial economic growth falls between the April and 2017-18 Q1 Update projections. Total real economic output is projected to increase by 2.8% in 2017 followed by an increase of 2.2% in 2018, with expected rates of growth slightly above 2.0% from 2019 to 2021.


1 Alberta Economic Dashboard, Oil Prices, http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilPrice

2 Fiscal Plan - Economic Outlook - Annex Budget 2017, Alberta Finance, http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/budget2017/fiscal-plan-economic-outlook.pdf

3 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, Alberta Finance, https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/9c81a5a7-cdf1-49ad-a923-d1ecb42944e4/resource/d805fedc-63cb-4f62-aba8-92bbaf604fc5/download/2017-18-1st-Quarter-Fiscal-Update.pdf

2 THE ECONOMY

http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/budget2017/fiscal-plan-economic-outlook.pdf




https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/9c81a5a7-cdf1-49ad-a923-d1ecb42944e4/resource/d805fedc-63cb-4f62-aba8-92bbaf604fc5/download/2017-18-1st-Quarter-Fiscal-Update.pdf






Budget 2017 2017-18 Q1 Update Applications

200

240

280

320

360

2015 (actual) 2016 (est.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GDP (Alberta) Total (Billions Real 2007 $)


3 THE ECONOMY

Economic Growth in the Calgary RegionThe contractions in real economic growth observed in the Calgary Region through the 2015-16 period were slightly less severe than that of the province as a whole. However, real growth forecasts for the Calgary Region from 2017-19 are slightly below the Alberta average.

Alberta - Budget 2017 Alberta - 2017-18 Q1 UpdateCalgary - Applications

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Economic Growth: Change in Real GDP - Alberta vs Calgary Region


4 THE ECONOMY

Population GrowthWith the onset of the economic downturn, growth of the province’s population has slowed significantly since the 2012-14 period when growth reached as high as 3%. Alberta’s annual population growth is expected to remain below the 1.5% level through the 2017-21 period.4 The Calgary Region population is projected to grow at a somewhat faster rate than the province as a whole, largely due to a continued trend of rural residents migrating to major urban centers. Nonetheless, Calgary Region population growth will remain below the highs of the 2012-14 period, when population increased at an annual average of close to 4%.

Alberta - Budget 2017 Alberta - 2017-18 Q1 UpdateAlberta - Applications Calgary - Applications

0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Population Growth: Change - Alberta vs Calgary Region


4 Population forecasts for Alberta and the Calgary CMA are derived from Alberta Treasury Board and Finance (http://finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/osi/demographics/Population-Projections/index.html)

5 THE ECONOMY

http://finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/osi/demographics/Population-Projections/index.html




EmploymentTotal employment at the provincial level was estimated to have declined by approximately 1.6% (a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs) in 2016 but is projected to grow at an annual rate above 1.0% in 2017 and beyond. Projected employment growth was upgraded in the 2017-18 Q1 Update relative to the initial Alberta Budget 2017 forecasts.

Applications’ projection of provincial employment is somewhat less optimistic relative to the 2017-18 Q1 Update, but nonetheless anticipates aggregate employment growth of 1.0% in 2017, with steadily increasing rates of employment growth through 2021.

Budget 2017 2017-18 Q1 Update Applications

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment (Alberta) Total (Thousands)


6 THE ECONOMY

Employment Growth in the Calgary RegionFollowing a 1.5% contraction in employment that was slightly less severe than the provincial average in 2016, Calgary Region employment growth is projected to increase at a somewhat faster rate than that of the province as a whole over the forecast period, steadily increasing to an annual rate of 2.1% in 2021. While these rates of job growth represent a significant improvement relative to 2016, employment growth remains well below that achieved between 2011-2015 when annual employment growth reached as high as 5.0%.

Alberta - Budget 2017 Alberta - 2017-18 Q1 UpdateAlberta - Applications Calgary - Applications

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Growth: Change - Alberta vs Calgary Region


7 THE ECONOMY

Industry Sector Outlook

Overview of the Industry Sector OutlookThis section provides an overview and forecast of economic output, employment demand and supply for each of 11 key Calgary Region employment sectors. This includes:✓ Oil and gas✓ Construction✓ Retail trade✓ Professional, scientific and technical (PST) services✓ Education✓ Health✓ Accommodation and food services✓ Public administration✓ Energy-related manufacturing✓ Trucking and warehousing✓ Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE)

Collectively these industries represented approximately three-quarters of total employment in the Calgary Region.

Industry Overview and ForecastEach industry review contains a forecast of real output growth covering the period 2017 to 2021. These forecasts were developed based on sector-specific research, a review of existing forecasts, and the growth outlook for each industry in Calgary and how that outlook compares to that of Edmonton and the rest of Alberta.

For each industry, historical and projected employment demand figures are also provided for the period 2012 to 2021. Employment demand forecasts for 2017 and beyond are based on the forecast of real output for each industry sector. This includes consideration of labour productivity growth.

Worker Demand and SupplyEach industry review includes an analysis of labour demand and supply covering the forecast period 2017 to 2021. Labour demand is disaggregated into that which is related to expansionary demand (positions created through industry growth) and replacement demand (positions that must be refilled due to voluntary and involuntary turnover). The sum of these components is total labour demand. Labour supply is disaggregated into the portion of labour demand that is forecast to be available within


INDUSTRY SECTOR OUTLOOKThis section reviews the outlook for selected industry sectors in the Calgary Region and the factors influencing these sectors.

8

the pool of existing unattached workers in the Calgary Region (available supply), and any remaining shortage projected (recruitment gap) when the available supply of labour is insufficient in satisfying total labour demand.How to Interpret the Labour Supply and Demand Analysis ResultsEach industry outlook includes a chart summarizing the Labour Supply and Demand for that industry. This includes the information outlined above as depicted below:

Labour Supply and Demand - EXAMPLE Industry

‣ Expansion demand: Employment growth (or decline) resulting from expansion (or contraction) of activity in the subject industry sector. For example, when a business grows and needs to hire more workers or when a new business locates in Calgary, the increase in demand for workers would be in this category. If a sector of the economy contracts, it is possible that expansion demand for workers would be negative.

‣ Replacement demand: Where workers voluntarily or involuntarily are separated from their job, the employer has a need to ‘replace’ that worker. For example, replacement demand occurs when a worker quits their job to take another job and the employer has to replace that worker with a new hire.

‣ Labour demand: Total labour demand in an industry is equal to the sum of expansion and replacement demand. In the example above, total demand is equal to 2,750 (where replacement demand is 2,000 + 750 where the industry sector has grown).

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Labour Supply Labour Demand

550

600

750

2,0001,600

EXAMPLE Industry - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


9 INDUSTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK

Recruitment Gap = 1,150

‣ Available supply: Available supply is estimated using Applications’ Labour Redistribution (Supply) Model. This model determines the potential of supply of workers in the region based on occupation according to the 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) system. Where demand exceeds supply of workers within an occupation, the available supply is assumed to be pro-rated across all industries seeking these workers.

‣ Recruitment gap: When the available supply does not meet total labour demand, there is a recruitment gap. The recruitment gap is determined by subtracting the available supply from the total labour demand. Where a recruitment gap exists, employers in the industry will typically need to find workers from other industries or recruit from outside the region to fill all the positions. The recruitment gap is equal to the match gap plus the skill gap.

‣ Match gap: The portion of the recruitment gap that is related to inefficiencies in matching between employers and potential employees. The local pool of available workers is estimated to be sufficient in size and skill level to fill these positions, but the jobs remain unfilled due to a failure to match in one or more criteria (the worker finds the offered wage rate unattractive, believes they are overqualified for the job, etc.).

‣ Skill gap: The portion of the recruitment gap that is related to a lack of sufficiently skilled workers available in the local labour force. Workers possessing the skills necessary for required positions are already engaged in employment, or have exited the labour force.

‣ Labour supply: The total required labour supply is equal to available supply and the recruitment gap. It is assumed that the labour market will adjust towards equilibrium, where the demand for workers and available supply are equal. Where the recruitment gap is not closed, there will be a shortfall in projected output for that industry sector.

Labour demand = Expansion demand + Replacement demand

Recruitment gap (Shortage) = Labour demand - Available supply

Match gap + Skill gap = Recruitment gap



Oil and Gas

Industry Sector CompositionThe oil and gas sector has been defined to include:✓ Oil and gas extraction (NAICS 211)✓ Mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) (NAICS 212)✓ Support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction (NAICS 213)

Output and Employment

Oil and gas extractionMining and quarrying (except oil and gas)Support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction 25%

2%

73%

Summer ForecastWinter Forecast

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.9%0.8%

2%2.2%

2%

3.1%3.0%

2.6%

2.0%2.1%

0.4%

Oil & Gas - GDP Growth Forecast

HistorySummer ForecastWinter Forecast

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Oil & Gas - Employment Forecast

“Winter Forecast” refers to the projections made in the Calgary and Area Employment Forecast 2016 Winter Report. “Summer Forecast” is the current forecast.



OutlookThe outlook for Calgary’s oil and gas industry has improved since the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gradually recovered through 2016. WTI traded at an average of $49.14 during the fourth quarter of 2016, up from $33.18 in the first quarter, and $45.41 and $44.85 in the second and third quarters respectively.

Over the first eight months of 2017, WTI traded at an average of $49.34. The price of WTI is largely expected to remain in this price range over the next year, with an average price of $49.58 projected in 2018.

Price growth was bolstered by OPEC’s agreement (along with non-member major producers, such as Russia) to cut production in September of 2016; with increasing U.S. crude stockpiles acting to weigh on price growth. A recent survey performed by Deloitte suggested that more than half of Canadian oil executives were optimistic that prices would continue to rise, and that these executives were significantly more confident in the prevailing business outlook relative to the Canadian average.5

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 12, 2017.

The drop in oil prices has had a negative impact on Alberta oil production. Heavy oil production has dropped from a high of over 750,000 cubic metres in March of 2014 to under 600,000 in February, 2017. This decline may be due to weakness in prices, the aftermath of the Fort McMurray fire and major shifts in major international oil sands ownership. Royal Dutch Shell, Norway’s Statoil and Houston-based ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil sold or reduced their stakes in favour of more profitable plays elsewhere in the world.

US$0

US$20

US$40

US$60

US$80

US$100

US$120

Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18

WTI Price, Monthly Average, Actual and Forecast, Jan 2014 to Dec 2018


5 World Oil, Oil execs see 2017 as a year of recovery, Deloitte survey finds, September 21, 2016. http://www.worldoil.com/news/2016/9/21/oil-execs-see-2017-as-a-year-of-recovery-deloitte-survey-finds.


Light and medium oil production has also declined dramatically from over 2 million cubic metres to under 1.7 million cubic metres.

More recent data suggests that production may be on the rise for both Alberta as well as other producing regions in North America. The US has increased oil production to near record highs. More production has resulted in the price holding at, or near $US 50 for both recent history as well as in the near future.

Source: Statistics Canada Cansim 126-0001

Continued weakness in oil prices has effectively stalled investment in Alberta’s oil patch. Several major producers in the province have indicated that $US50 oil is not sufficient to justify significant increases in investment, especially given the potential for volatility of these prices.6

Heavy Light and Medium

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jan 1, 2013 Jul 1, 2013 Jan 1, 2014 Jul 1, 2014 Jan 1, 2015 Jul 1, 2015 Jan 1, 2016

Alberta Oil Production (1,000 cubic metres), Jan 2013 to Feb 2017


6 Oil price rise not enough to boost Canadian oilpatch spending: energy analysts, https://globalnews.ca/news/3773848/oil-price-rise-insufficient-to-boost-canadian-oilpatch-spending-analysts-agree/?utm_source=%40GlobalEdmonton&utm_medium=Twitter


https://globalnews.ca/news/3773848/oil-price-rise-insufficient-to-boost-canadian-oilpatch-spending-analysts-agree/?utm_source=%40GlobalEdmonton&utm_medium=Twitter






Labour Supply and Demand

With Calgary’s oil and gas sector positioned for a gradual recovery in 2017, expansion labour demand for the period 2017 to 2021 is positive (4,495), with layoffs and cuts expected to be largely in the past. On a net basis, less than half of labour demand growth between 2017 and 2021 is projected to be a result of replacement demand (voluntary and involuntary turnover) as 2,958 positions are refilled in the sector.

Although the oil and gas sector has struggled with acute labour shortages in recent years, the collapse in oil prices since mid-2014 and resulting layoffs should allow for a somewhat greater degree of ease in accommodating workforce hiring requirements, even with a period of significant industry growth anticipated to begin in 2019. Of the net estimated 7,453 labour demand from 2017 to 2021, the existing supply of labour in Alberta should be sufficient to fill 2,909 of these positions (39%). The remaining balance of 4,544 unfilled positions is classified as a recruitment gap, or labour shortage. While the size of this shortage may be diminished relative to prior periods of rapid growth, the majority of the estimated recruitment gap remains related to a skill shortage in Alberta’s labour market (3,681/4,544 = 81%), implying that oil and gas firms will have to search outside of the province for qualified workers.

The reasons for the recruitment gap given the apparently abundant supply of workers recently laid off in the energy sector is twofold: first, some laid off workers (reported to be 20% to 25% of all sector jobs) are reluctant to re-engage in the energy sector as a result of living through the ups and downs of

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


3,681

863

4,495

2,9582,909

Oil & Gas - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




several economic and oil price cycles; and, while the energy sector is hiring, wage and salary offers in the energy sector are well below previous levels.7


7 PetroLMI Workforce Insights, September 2017.


Construction

Industry Sector CompositionThe construction sector has been defined to include:✓ Construction (NAICS 23)



-20%

-14%

-8%

-2%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.8%1.0%0.9%

-0.6%-2.0%

1.5%1.3%1.0%1.1%1.0%

-17.2%

Construction - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Construction - Employment Forecast

OutlookThis sector is comprised of residential and non-residential construction. The residential component includes the construction of new dwelling units as well as home renovation. Non-residential construction includes projects with institutional, commercial and industrial purposes.

Output and employment within Calgary’s construction industry took a significant hit in 2015 as output fell by more than 10%. Calgary-area construction output continued to decline into 2016, though employment managed a slight recovery. The slide in construction activity has been prevalent throughout Alberta since mid-2014, but has been most acute in Calgary. The decline in Calgary-based



construction is reflected in the size and scope of projects in the region, with 87 currently under construction (valued at $12.1 billion) and just 79 proposed projects (valued at $13.8 billion).8 These figures are down significantly from March of 2017, when there were a reported 135 major projects under construction (valued at $14.06 billion) and 94 proposed projects (valued at $13.26 billion).9

Over the first seven months of 2017, the value of building permits issued in Calgary trended downward. Total permits issued during this period valued about $2.55 billion, compared to $2.75 billion and $4.00 billion over the first seven months of 2016 and 2015 respectively. Declines were observed in residential permits issued in 2017 relative to 2016 (-1.0%) but the primary source of the drop was in non-residential permits (-15.9%).

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0006.

While hiring in the construction sector should improve modestly, prospects for growth in the industry remain undoubtedly bleak. Non-residential construction spending has been higher in Calgary than Edmonton for most of the past decade, but the gap has closed significantly. Calgary has seen significant contraction in non-residential construction since 2015 while Edmonton has experienced some growth.10

A major factor that will likely result in a continued downtrend in non-residential construction is the surplus of downtown office space. According to CBRE Limited, vacancy currently sits around 28%, which is a record Calgary has never seen. With the last major project expected to be completed in

$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17

Value of Building Permits Issued in Calgary (Monthly, Millions of $), 2013 to 2017


8 Alberta Major Projects, http://majorprojects.alberta.ca/

9 Alberta Major Projects, http://majorprojects.alberta.ca/

10 ATB, A Tale of Two Cities: Non-Residential Construction in Calgary and Edmonton, July 19, 2017.


http://majorprojects.alberta.ca




2018, the vacancy rate could rise to 30%.11 With an estimated 13 to 14 million square feet of vacant downtown office space as of mid-2017 (resulting in a vacancy rate as high as 30%), Calgary may not see a new office tower constructed until 2029.

Investment in Non-Residential Building Construction ($2007 Million)


The residential housing market in the Calgary Region is showing some signs of recovery. In the first six months of 2017 housing starts were up 43% over 2016. However, this is still well below the levels that prevailed in most of the years between 2002 and 2005 and 2012 and 2015 when the Calgary Region housing market was booming. Despite the improvement in housing starts, there is still an large inventory of unsold units. This has had an impact on prices, which have been on a downward trend. New single-detached and semi-detached house prices have continued to decline as developers have not been introducing large luxury product to the market.

Part of the housing slump is explained by an exodus of people from Alberta to points elsewhere in Canada. Since 2015, Alberta has had negative net migration, reversing a trend of positive net interprovincial migration that has persisted for over a decade.

In the last year, over 15,000 people left Alberta for other parts of Canada. This compares to a net in-migration of over 130,000 people between 2010 and 2015.12


11 Calgary downtown office glut could continue to rise as space goes for free, https://globalnews.ca/news/3759333/calgary-downtown-office-glut-could-continue-to-rise-as-space-goes-for-free/

12 ATB Financial - Alberta still losing people to other provinces, http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/alberta-still-losing-people-to-other-provinces.aspx


https://globalnews.ca/news/3759333/calgary-downtown-office-glut-could-continue-to-rise-as-space-goes-for-free/




http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/alberta-still-losing-people-to-other-provinces.aspx




Net Interprovincial Migration To/From Alberta (Quarterly Gain/Loss)


This has had an impact on wages in the construction sector. Since the summer of 2014 construction worker wages have been essentially flat, after almost a decade of strong growth. The rise of construction worker wages are reflected in the increase in the construction worker wage index since 2007. Note that union construction worker wages in Alberta increased significantly faster than for Canada as a whole. However, since the beginning of 2015 Alberta construction worker wages have not increased while the average across Canada has seen a modest rise.13

Construction Union Wage Rate Index (2007 = 100)



13 ATB Financial - Construction worker wages flat in Alberta, http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/construction-worker-wages-flat-in-alberta.aspx


http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/construction-worker-wages-flat-in-alberta.aspx





With a substantial contraction in Calgary’s construction sector following the drop in oil prices, employment in this industry is not expected to regain its 2014 peak within the time scope of this forecast. Very slow rates of hiring through 2020 should keep expansion labour demand limited through most of the forecast (3,586). On a net basis, new construction jobs in Calgary are forecast to be driven by replacement demand (7,916). Replacement demand is especially strong in the construction sector due to the high rates of turnover typically observed in the industry.

Despite the relatively low rates of growth in Calgary’s construction industry, some labour shortages are anticipated. These shortages are likely to result from attrition, with workers joining related industries with similar occupation-specific demands (such as oil and gas). A net shortage of 4,983 workers is projected through 2021, representing a shortfall of about 43% of total labour demand. The majority of the anticipated gap is a result of a shortage of skilled trades labourers in Alberta, with 69% of the shortfall due to a lack of qualified workers.

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000


3,438

1,545

3,586

7,9166,520

Construction - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Retail Trade

Industry Sector CompositionThe retail trade sector has been defined to include:✓ Retail trade (NAICS 44-45)



-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.2%1.3%1.2%1.5%1.4%

1.6%1.8%

1.4%1.6%1.5%

-3.8%

Retail Trade - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

66,000

72,000

78,000

84,000

90,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Retail Trade - Employment Forecast

OutlookAfter two consecutive years of substantial increase in 2014 and 2015, employment growth in the retail sector slowed in 2016 and is expected to slow further over the next few years. Reduced rates of population growth (relative to recent historical levels), diminished earnings, and a relatively high unemployment rate in Calgary should dampen the near-term output and employment outlook. The slowdown in retail sales is seen provincially, where sales dropped off in 2015 and have begun to pick up modestly in the last few months.



Alberta Retail Sales (Billions of $)

Provincial retail sales hit an all time high in June 2017, but this is significantly below the trend established prior to the recession. The trend line prior to the recession shows a trend in retail sales over the period from 2011 to 2014. Had this trend continued, retail sales in Alberta were projected to reach almost $8.5 billion.14

In per capita terms, Albertans outspend Canadians at retail stores by an average of $234 per month, despite the economic downturn in Alberta. This gap is largely explained by Alberta’s higher employment rate and higher average income.15 The Conference Board of Canada is projecting personal income per capita to continue to increase over the next 5 years to over $70,000 by 2021.

Source: Conference Board of Canada

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000

Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21

Personal Income per Capita, Actual and Forecast, Quarterly, 2013 to 2021


14 ATB Financial - Retail hits a new record high, August 22, 2017

15 ATB Financial - Retail therapy: Sales up in Alberta’s retail sector in April and May, July 21, 2017



Despite relatively modest rates of growth expected through 2021, expansion labour demand in Calgary’s retail trade sector should be significant (5,599). Retail trade posts the highest turnover rates across all major sectors, and as such replacement demand should constitute the majority of hiring in the forecast (21,108).

Relative to other sectors, Calgary’s retail trade sector is expected to require a large number of positions to be filled through 2021 - even with modest growth by industry standards. However, many jobs in this sector require relatively fewer skills and training, implying that the demand for labour can be more readily accommodated by the prevailing supply of workers. Of the net 26,708 positions demanded through 2021, a shortage of 8,675 (32%) is anticipated. This shortage is primarily a result of matching between employers and Alberta’s labour force, as just 21% of the gap is related to skill deficiencies within the local pool of available workers.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


1,822

6,853

5,599

21,10818,033

Retail Trade - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Industry Sector CompositionThe professional, scientific and technical services sector has been defined to include:✓ Professional, scientific and technical services (NAICS 54)



-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.7%0.9%

1.2%1%

0.5%

3.1%3.1%2.7%

2.2%2.2%

-1.6%

PS&T Services - GDP Growth Forecast


80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

PS&T Services - Employment Forecast

OutlookAfter reaching a peak of nearly 97,000 in 2013, employment in Calgary’s professional, scientific and technical (PS&T) services industry fell to about 88,000 in 2015. Given that a significant portion of Calgary’s activity in this industry is built in to the energy sector through head office activity (with major sub-sectors including engineering, specialized design, consulting, legal, accounting and scientific research services), it is unsurprising that the outlook is generally correlated with that of oil and gas. In tandem with gradually strengthening oil prices, output and employment in this industry should recover following the contractions since 2013. While the sector is estimated to have managed a slight employment gain in 2016 and no further contractions are projected in Calgary, hiring in PS&T services is likely to remain subdued through 2021, with the heights of 2013 and 2014 unlikely to be reattained.




Similar to other sectors that waned as a result of the downturn in oil prices, labour demand in the professional, scientific and technical services industry contracted severely in 2015. With consistent growth expected to return to this diverse sector, expansion labour demand is forecast at 9,431. This compares to an estimated replacement demand of 15,105 through 2021.

Given the wide array of high-skilled jobs that the professional, scientific and technical services industry employs, labour shortages are likely to occur even during periods of weak employment growth. It is projected that more than half (57%) of the net growth in labour demand through 2021 will be unmet by the existing supply of labour in Alberta, resulting in a shortage of 13,983 positions. As this industry tends to demand specific skill, education and professional requirements from its workers, is it unsurprising that a relatively high proportion of the projected labour gap is related to skill shortages (72%).

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


10,067

3,915

9,431

15,105

10,554

PS&T Services - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Education

Industry Sector CompositionThe education sector has been defined to include:✓ Educational services (NAICS 61)



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%1.0%

1.5%

2.1%2.1%

2.7%

3.2%3.0%

3.2%3.1%

3.5%

Education - GDP Growth Forecast


30,000

36,000

42,000

48,000

54,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Education - Employment Forecast

OutlookCalgary’s education sector is expected to continue to record steady employment gains through 2021. While the proportion of 0 to 18 year olds in the Calgary population has declined somewhat, from 24.3% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2016, this demographic segment is nonetheless projected to grow slightly through the forecast to 22.6% by 2021. As well, a growing public demand for advanced education should result in hiring continuing to increase at a moderate rate within Calgary’s post-secondary institutions.

In addition, there are over a dozen new schools that are projected to be completed in the Calgary Region in 2017. While there should be some reassignment of teaching and other staff from existing to



new schools, it can be expected there will be additional hiring associated with the new school openings.

While population growth in Alberta and the Calgary Region has slowed over the past 2 years, the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance population projections show an expected continued growth of the population in general, and school age children as depicted below.

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Alberta Population Projections (2017-2041) Medium Scenario. Data for Calgary Census Division (CD 6)

Countering this trend is post secondary enrollments, which have been trending down in recent years. In 2007-08, approximately 72% of Alberta’s population was enrolled in post secondary education. This has dropped to just over 6 percent.

Post Secondary Enrolment in Alberta (% of population)

Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 051-0001

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Projected Population of 0 to 18 Years of Age, 2010 to 2021



The headcount of post secondary students in Alberta has started to turn around, but is not keeping up with population growth. Attracting more international students will be required to keep enrolments up.16

With the continued expected population growth and associated increase in school age children, the demand for workers in the education sector is projected to increase, in spite of declines expected in post secondary education. Education is forecast to be among the most consistent major employment sectors in the Calgary Region between 2017 and 2021, with an average of nearly 600 new positions created annually.


16 ATB Financial - School’s in! Post-secondary enrolment in Alberta, https://atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/school's-in-post-secondary-enrolment-in-alberta.aspx


https://atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/school's-in-post-secondary-enrolment-in-alberta.aspx





Consistent but unremarkable growth in the education sector through 2021 is expected to contribute to expansion labour demand of 4,347. Additional labour demand due to turnover is forecast to amount to 2,648 positions.

As the demand for educational services grows, so does the need for more education professionals in the Calgary area. With a net 6,995 jobs through 2021, Calgary may encounter labour shortages of 2,872 (41%), as in-migration and new graduates are unlikely to be sufficient in filling all vacancies. A sizable 72% of the education sector’s predicted shortage is a result of skill shortages in Alberta’s pool of available labour.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


2,125

7474,347

2,648

4,123

Education - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Health

Industry Sector CompositionThe health sector has been defined to include:✓ Health care and social assistance (NAICS 62)



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2.1%2.2%2.2%2.1%

2.8% 2.9%3.1%

2.9%2.9%2.8%

3.5%

Health - GDP Growth Forecast


60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Health - Employment Forecast

OutlookThe health care industry in Calgary, which includes health care services, social assistance and hospitals, has recorded significant output and employment gains since 2011. Despite a generally diminished outlook across many industries in Alberta, the health industry is projected to post continued gains. Much of this relatively optimistic outlook is related to continued population growth in Calgary, along with a growing proportion of seniors (65+) in the population, who tend to utilize a greater amount of health services.

While Calgary’s population growth rate is expected to slow relative to recent rates of growth over the next few years, the proportion of seniors (age 65+) in Calgary’s population is expected to increase from 11% in 2016 to 13.1% by 2021, representing an increase from about 174,000 to 226,000.



Generally, a trend toward increased per capita health-related costs along with the number of visits per capita should result in significantly increased activity in this sector. This was reflected in a recent update to the Alberta Budget, where health care expenditure was expected to be $284 million above the initial projection, due in part to growth in the number of physicians, which has been increasing at a rate faster than that of the population.17

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Alberta Population Projections (2017-2041) Medium Scenario.

% Seniors (65+) % Seniors ForecastPop Growth Pop Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Population Growth Rate and % Senior Population, Actual and Forecast, 2011 to 2021


17 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, Alberta Finance, http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/quarterly/2016/2016-17-3rd-Quarter-Fiscal-Update.pdf



Growing demand for health care services in the Calgary area should result in steady employment gains in the health sector, with an estimated 8,645 in expansion labour demand between 2017 and 2021. A similar amount of hiring is expected to result from replacement demand over the same period (9,060).

Steady growth in Calgary’s health sector is forecast to contribute to a growing deficiency in the available supply of health and medical professionals. With a net labour demand of 17,705 positions through 2021, it is estimated that just 9,117 (51%) will be accommodated by the local supply of labour. Shortages are estimated to result in a gap of about 8,588 positions. Most of these unfilled positions are expected to be due to a shortage of qualified workers in the province (78%).

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


6,699

1,889

8,645

9,0609,117

Health - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Public Administration

Industry Sector CompositionThe public administration sector has been defined to include:✓ Federal government public administration (NAICS 911)✓ Provincial and territorial public administration (NAICS 912)✓ Local, municipal and regional public administration (NAICS 913)


Federal government public administrationProvincial and territorial public administrationLocal, municipal and regional public administration

57%18%

26%


-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.8%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.4%

2.1%2.5%2.4%

2.8%2.8%

-1.2%

Public Administration - GDP Growth Forecast


20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Public Administration - Employment Forecast



OutlookGrowth in Calgary’s public administration sector (includes municipal, provincial and territorial, and federal government services) is tied to the demand for public services. This demand is largely linked to growth. Growth projections for the Calgary Region are showing positive, but lower rates of growth than experienced between 2012 and 2015. Net migration to Calgary has slowed since 2013, turning negative in 2016 (-1,500) for the first time in over a decade. This is a result of significant negative outflows of intercity (-3,847) and interprovincial (-3,149) migration from the region. Even net international migration into Calgary declined substantially to 5,484 - it’s lowest level since 2000.

While population growth is expected to remain positive (due primarily to natural increase and international migration), budgetary limitations and slower population/migration into Calgary are likely to result in only modest increases in public sector employment.

Source: Conference Board of Canada

Intercity InterprovincialInternational

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual and Forecasted Sources of Migration, Calgary, 2010 to 2021




Following a slight decline in Calgary-area public sector employment in 2016, the sector should grow in 2017 and beyond at a moderate rate. Expansion labour demand in this sector over the forecast period is estimated at 1,966. While voluntary turnover rates in the public administration sector are relatively low compared to other industries, involuntary turnover - notably retirements due to an aging labour force - is forecast to contribute to replacement demand of 1,987.

The available supply of labour in Alberta is projected to meet about 55% of Calgary’s public administration sector’s hiring requirements over the next five years. With a total labour demand of 3,956 workers, shortages are estimated to result in a supply gap of about 1,772. Though this shortage is relatively small compared to the size of the industry, 70% of the estimated shortage will likely have to be filled by workers recruited outside of the province due to a lack of qualified Albertans.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


1,187

585

1,966

1,9872,181

Public Administration - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Energy-Related Manufacturing

Industry Sector CompositionThe energy-related manufacturing sector has been defined to include:✓ Petroleum and coal product manufacturing (NAICS 324)✓ Chemical manufacturing (NAICS 325)✓ Plastics and rubber products manufacturing (NAICS 326)✓ Primary metal manufacturing (NAICS 331)✓ Fabricated metal product manufacturing (NAICS 332)✓ Machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333)

Petroleum and coal product manufacturingChemical manufacturingPlastics and rubber products manufacturingPrimary metal manufacturingFabricated metal product manufacturingMachinery manufacturing

31%

31%7%

9%

12%10%





-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.7%0.9%

2.3%2.7%2.6%

4.3%3.9%3.3%

2.3%2.3%

-7.7%

GDP Growth Forecast


15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast

OutlookCalgary’s energy-related manufacturing industry represents approximately 45% of total manufacturing employment in the city. Energy related manufacturing output and employment declined significantly in 2016 following a significant drop in 2015. Total output declined by 7.7% and this industry sub-sector lost approximately 2,500 jobs.

It is expected that the impact of the energy price drop has now been largely absorbed and with firming of oil prices, there will be a drop in the slide of employment in this sector. This has an impact on both manufactured petroleum products as well as manufacturing that supports this sector, importantly primary metal manufacturing, fabricated metal product manufacturing and machinery manufacturing.18

The value of all manufacturing in Alberta has also gone through a recovery, with total shipments beginning to increase again in 2016 after a year and a half of decline. While energy related manufacturing has been in decline, other manufacturing sub-segments have been improving.

‣ Food products have experienced an increase in annual sales by 7% between 2014 and 2016.

‣ Wood products sales increased by 2.4%


18 ATB, Manufacturing pauses slightly in June, http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/manufacturing-pauses-slightly-in-June.aspx


Energy-Related Manufacturing

http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/manufacturing-pauses-slightly-in-June.aspx




‣ Furniture grew by less than 1%

Agri-food products and wood products have been a bright light in what has been an otherwise dismal sector over the past two years. July 2017 represented another step back in manufacturing shipments. Leading the decline were a reduction in fabricated metal products (-8.3%) and chemicals (6.5%).19

Alberta Manufacturing shipments ($ Billions)



19 ATB, Manufacturing slips again in July, http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/the-owl/Pages/monthly-manufacturing-sales-slip-again-in-july.aspx







Slow employment growth through the forecast is likely to limit expansion labour demand in the energy-related manufacturing sector (1,204) through 2021. The majority of new hiring in this sector is expected to result from replacement demand of 2,762.

Following a significant employment decline in 2016, a gradual recovery of Calgary’s energy-related manufacturing sector through 2021 will still not account for all of the positions lost in 2016. Of the 3,967 vacancies, it is estimated that employers will experience difficulty in filling 42% of these. The resulting worker shortages are estimated at 1,673 positions. Relative to other industry groups, this manufacturing sub-sector should find it relatively easier to recruit their worker needs from within Alberta, given that just 32% of the expected labour shortage is a result of skill deficiencies.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000


535

1,137

1,204

2,7622,294

Energy-Related Manufacturing - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21




Trucking and Warehousing

Industry Sector CompositionThe trucking and warehousing sector has been defined to include:✓ Truck transportation (NAICS 484)✓ Warehousing and storage (NAICS 493)


Truck transportation Warehousing and storage

32%

68%


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.5%0.6%

1.1%0.8%0.9%

3.4%3.3%

2.7%2.4%2.3%

0.2%

GDP Growth Forecast


10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast



Trucking and Warehousing

OutlookGiven its strong reliance on the faltering oil and gas industry, it was not surprising that Calgary’s trucking and warehousing sector posted a substantial estimated decline of about 1,300 jobs in 2016. An improving overall economic climate in the Calgary Region (and Alberta as a whole) and the gradual recovery of the energy sector should help the trucking and warehousing industry to post positive gains through the duration of the forecast.

Calgary’s trucking and warehousing industry is projected to perform slightly below that of the provincial average in the short-term, with rates of output and employment growth picking up beyond 2018 as overall economic conditions in the city are revitalized and existing excess capacity is utilized.

Trucking and warehousing is linked to the Wholesale Trade sector. As noted in the figure below, Wholesale Trade took a dramatic dip as a result of the drop in energy prices. However, over the past year activity has increased significantly. Leading the growth were increases in: paper products, disposable plastic products, agricultural supplies and recyclable materials.20

Wholesale Trade ($ Billions)



20 ATB, Wholesale activity shows momentum, July 24, 2017.



Trucking and warehousing is another of Calgary’s oil-related sectors that posted a significant employment contraction in 2016. With the worst of the oil-related downturn in the past, total labour demand growth should pick up to 2,069 through the forecast period. Of this growth, more than half of the new jobs are projected to be a result of industry expansion (1,303).

Employment in Calgary’s trucking and warehousing sector through 2021 is projected to increase at a significantly slower rate relative to the 2011 to 2015 period. The local supply of labour should be capable of filling just 32% of the vacancies, with a remaining recruitment gap of 1,410 workers. Almost half of this gap is related to an under qualified local labour force (47%). Some studies have suggested that the trucking workforce is at the edge of a “demographic cliff”, with the average age of drivers much higher than that of other professions, contributing to a rising retirement rate in the industry.21 Given the limited supply of labour available for such positions, faster-than-expected growth in the trucking and warehousing industry could quickly generate a substantial recruitment gap.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


663

747

1,303

766659

Trucking and Warehousing - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


21 Truck Driver Shortage Accelerating According to New CTA Study, Alberta Motor Transport Association, June 2016.



Accommodation and Food Services

Industry Sector CompositionThe accommodation and food services sector has been defined to include:✓ Accommodation and food services (NAICS 72)



-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%0.8%

0.6%0.5%0.7%

1.7%

2.2%2.0%

2.3%2.2%

-0.2%

GDP Growth Forecast


40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Employment Forecast

OutlookCalgary’s accommodation industry has been negatively impacted by the provincial decline in energy-related spending and regional travel. Prior to the drop in oil prices, very strong growth in the demand for accommodations had spurred a surge in hotel development activity. While the tourism-driven locations of Banff and Jasper have continued to enjoy very high levels of demand, the room occupancy rate in Alberta’s four largest cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer and Lethbridge) averaged 38.6% in June of 2016 - about half of the minimum level considered to be healthy by the industry. For



Accommodation and Food Services

comparison, this rate was 65.1% in June of 2014 at the onset of the economic downturn.22 Affecting the outlook is the imminent addition of another 2,100 hotel rooms in Calgary and Edmonton, representing a supply increase of 16%.

A Comparison of Overall Calgary Hotel Performance, 2015 and 2016

YearOccupancy Rate

Average Room Rate

Room Supply

(% Change)

Room Demand

(% Change)

2016 40.2% $126.83 +5.3% -1.4%

2015 42.9% $136.38 +6.0% -3.1%

Source: HVS Canada, Canadian Lodging Outlook Quarterly 2016-Q4

Despite the economic downturn, Alberta’s food and beverage sector has remained buoyant. Restaurant and bar receipts reached record levels in July 2017. Despite unfavorable labour market conditions and the job insecurity in a number of sectors, more people are dining and drinking out. Improvements in the economy in the last few months has helped with recent increases in this sector.

Restaurant and Bar Receipts - Alberta (million $)

While gross sales are up, many owners are struggling. Costs in this sector are rising, and Alberta’s minimum wage, which has increased to $13.60 per hour as of October of 2017, and is scheduled to


22 Justin Giovannetti, Globe and Mail, Other than the Rockies, Alberta’s hotels lie empty due to the oil crash, August 19, 2016. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/other-than-the-rockies-albertas-hotels-lie-empty-due-to-the-oil-crash/article31478415/


increase to $15.00 in 2018, will cut into operators bottom line. With approximately two-thirds of those employed in Alberta’s accommodation and food services industry currently earning $15 per hour or less,23 labour costs to employers should increase at a greater proportion compared to other sectors - particularly in this labour-intensive industry. Nevertheless, the employment outlook in this sector calls for positive, albeit relatively modest growth, with Calgary receiving a greater share of hiring as its energy firms gradually increase demand levels within the city.


Consistent projected accommodation and food services growth in 2017 and beyond is forecast to drive an expansion labour demand of 3,263 in the sector. However, even with relatively strong expansion demand, the majority of vacancies arising through 2021 will be due to replacement (8,984) as the accommodation and food services sector posts a relatively high rate of voluntary turnover.

Calgary’s accommodation and food services sector faces a significant hiring requirement of 12,247 between 2017 and 2021. While the majority of this demand is forecast to be readily available within Alberta’s supply of labour (80%), a gap of 2,466 is still expected. Most of this sector’s unmet labour requirements are related to matching, with just 24% of the gap related to the skill gap.

0

3,250

6,500

9,750

13,000


5921,874 3,263

8,9849,781

Accommodation and Food Services - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


23 Rachelle Younglai and Kelly Cryderman, Globe and Mail, Small-business owners in Alberta brace for minimum-wage hike, October 1, 2016. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/small-business-owners-in-alberta-brace-for-minimum-wage-hike/article32174789/



Labour shortages in accommodation are likely to be geography-specific, as even in mid-2016, Banff-area hotels required workers to be transported in from Calgary due to weekend labour shortages.24


24 Daniel Katz, Desperate Banff hotels transport housekeepers from Calgary on weekends to fill labour gaps, Crag and Canyon, August 10, 2016.


Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE)

Industry Sector CompositionThe finance, insurance and real estate sector has been defined to include:✓ Monetary authorities - central bank (NAICS 521)✓ Credit intermediation and related activities (NAICS 522)✓ Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investment and related activities (NAICS 523)✓ Insurance carriers and related activities (NAICS 524)✓ Funds and other financial vehicles (NAICS 526)✓ Real estate (NAICS 531)✓ Rental and leasing services (NAICS 532)✓ Lessors of non-financial intangible assets (except copyrighted workers) (NAICS 533)✓ Management of companies and enterprises (NAICS 55)

Monetary authorities and credit intermediationInsurance carriers and related activitiesReal estateRental and leasing services and lessors of non-financial intangible assetsOther finance, insurance and real estate activities and management of companies and enterprises

18%

8%

28% 17%

30%





0%

1%

2%

3%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1.0%0.8%

0.6%0.5%

0.4%

2.2%

1.7%1.6%

1.8%

2.4%

0.8%

FIRE - GDP Growth Forecast


30,000

34,000

38,000

42,000

46,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

FIRE - Employment Forecast

OutlookThe finance, insurance and real estate industry is Calgary’s largest major services sector. Following a slight drop in output and employment in 2015, the sector was largely stagnant in hiring activity during 2016 with about 100 jobs added. Continued weak, but positive, employment growth within the sector is projected through the duration of the forecast.

Calgary’s real estate sector has suffered as a result of the downturn. This was evident in December of 2016, when there were an estimated 535 unsold, vacant new homes in Calgary - the highest total since 2012.25 While buyers may be inclined to take advantage of the surplus supply, the city’s high unemployment rate, low earnings growth, and net out-migration may result in unabsorbed housing creeping higher.


25 ATB, Number of new, but vacant homes on the rise in Calgary, January 30, 2017. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/the-owl.aspx?aid=676


In the commercial and industrial sub-sectors of real estate, Calgary has the potential to take advantage of a possible national plan involving the legalization of marijuana. Since 2014 when marijuana was legalized in Colorado, producers have accounted for 35.8% of all space leased, and now hold close to four million square feet of real estate. The industry is credited with driving Denver’s industrial vacancy rate from 6% in 2009 to 0.3% in 2015. Alberta appears ready to take advantage of the potential growth industry, as the world’s largest marijuana production facility is set to be developed in Leduc.26 A U.S. study estimated that employment related to legalized marijuana could overtake manufacturing in terms of job creation by 2020.27

The employment outlook in Calgary’s FIRE sector calls for positive, but minimal growth of about 0.2% in 2017 and 2018. In tandem with strengthening economic conditions, the rate of hiring should increase in the longer-term, but is unlikely to exceed growth of 1% on an annual basis.


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000


2,093

1,127

2,979

4,5454,305

FIRE - Workforce Hiring Requirements 2017-21


26 O’Brien, Frank, World’s biggest marijuana production plant will sprout in Leduc, Alberta, Western Investor. http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/alberta/world-s-biggest-marijuana-production-plant-will-sprout-in-leduc-alberta-1.8197458

27 Robinson, Melia, Legal marijuana could overtake manufacturing in job creation by 2020, Business Insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/legal-marijuana-job-creation-projections-2017-3



While the high rate of labour demand growth observed between 2011 and 2014 (7,300) in Calgary’s finance, insurance and real estate sector is unlikely to be repeated over the next few years, industry growth should contribute to a net of 2,979 new positions between 2017 and 2021. Over the same period, this industry will be required to fill another 4,545 positions due to turnover.

Of the estimated 7,524 positions to be filled through the forecast period, Calgary’s finance, insurance and real estate sector is forecast to encounter a shortfall of 3,219 workers (43%). Of this shortage, the majority is related to the local labour force not possessing required skills and credentials (65%).



Recruitment Gap Summary

Match and Skill Labour Market Gaps

Match Skill

Average

PSTS

Health

Oil & Gas

Public Admin

FIRE

Construction

Trucking & Warehousing

Education

Energy Related Manufact

Retail Trade

Accom & Food Services

0% 5% 10% 15%

1.1%

2.1%

2.8%

3.8%

4.1%

4.2%

4.4%

4.8%

6.5%

7.0%

9.4%

5.1%

3.5%

7.8%

5.9%

1.3%

4.6%

1.9%

2.4%

2.4%

1.5%

2.0%

3.7%

3.3%

Industry Group Match and Skill Shortages as a % of Total Labour Demand in 2021



Occupation Forecast

Employment By Industry

Industry Sector Outlook SummaryThe figure below summarizes total employment projections by key industry sectors for the Calgary Region in 2017 and 2018.

2017 2018

Oil and Gas

Construction

Retail Trade

Professional Scientific and Tech Services

Education

Health


Energy Related Manufacturing


Accommodation & Food Services

FIRE

Other

Total

0% 1% 2% 3%

1.2%

1.4%

1.0%

1.3%

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

1.8%

1.6%

1.2%

1.0%

0.4%

1.0%

1.1%

1.3%

1.3%

1.2%

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

1.7%

1.5%

1.2%

0.9%

0.1%

1.0%

Calgary Region Employment Growth by Industry


OCCUPATION FORECASTWinter 2016 Employment Forecasts by Occupation

52

Total employment is projected to increase by approximately 9,200 jobs in the Calgary Region this year (2017), with the largest percentage growth expected in sectors such as Health Services and Public Administration. No major industry sectors in the Calgary economy are expected to cut jobs (on a net basis) in 2017.

On the positive side, there is expected to be increases in jobs related to the Health industry. This sector is projected to experience annual increases in employment of 1.7% and 1.8% in 2017 and 2018 respectively, translating to about 1,500 net new jobs each year.

Oil and Gas is also expected to rebound over the next two years with the addition of 500 to 600 positions each year - but this is insufficient growth to make up for the significant job losses sustained in the industry during 2015 and 2016. The employment heights observed between 2012 and 2014 are unlikely to be met within the duration of this forecast.

The Education sector is also projected to see continued employment growth of about 800 positions each year in 2017 and 2018, buoyed by the Calgary Region’s young population demographics.


53 OCCUPATION FORECAST

2017 2018

Oil and Gas

Construction

Retail Trade

Professional Scientific and Tech Services

Education

Health


Energy Related Manufacturing


Accommodation & Food Services

FIRE

Other

Total

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

9,850

2,849

441

633

170

127

395

1,569

833

1,188

801

314

530

9,184

2,629

594

576

163

127

382

1,456

769

1,174

712

78

524

Calgary Region Employment Growth by Industry



Employment Growth by Occupation Total employment in the Calgary Region is projected to increase by 1.1% in 2017 and by 1.2% in 2018. Total job growth should total about 9,200 this year (2017), with slightly more jobs created in 2018 at around 9,800. Due to a significant employment contraction of about 2% in 2016, it will not likely be until 2018 that total workforce demand in the Calgary Region again reaches its 2015 level.

In 2017 and 2018, all major occupation groups in the Calgary Region are projected to grow on a net basis.

Employment Growth by Occupation Group - Calgary Region 2017/2018

ChangeChange % Change% Change

Occupation (1-digit NOC) 2016e 2017f 2018f 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18

0 Management occupations 93,903 94,899 95,949 997 1,050 1.1% 1.1%

1 Business, finance and administration occupations 149,768 151,602 153,494 1,834 1,891 1.2% 1.2%

2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 95,260 96,340 97,462 1,079 1,122 1.1% 1.2%

3 Health occupations 51,847 52,688 53,596 841 907 1.6% 1.7%

4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 80,432 81,607 82,864 1,175 1,257 1.5% 1.5%

5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 18,982 19,218 19,472 236 253 1.2% 1.3%

6 Sales and service occupations 169,413 171,268 173,241 1,855 1,973 1.1% 1.2%

7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 115,427 116,224 117,214 797 990 0.7% 0.9%

8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 9,932 10,045 10,160 113 115 1.1% 1.1%

9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 16,752 16,989 17,259 236 270 1.4% 1.6%

Total - All Occupations 803,300 812,484 822,334 9,184 9,850 1.1% 1.2%

Legend: e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

In absolute terms, (6) Sales and service occupations is expected to post the greatest number of new positions in 2017 at 1,855. Another occupation category projected to show significant growth is (1) Business, finance and administration occupations, with 1,834 new jobs in 2017 and 1,891 in 2018.

While all major occupation groups show positive growth, percentage growth is significantly lower in the (7) Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations category in both 2017 and 2018, reflecting the relatively slow rates of growth in the construction and oil and gas industries.



Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2017The occupations projected to experience the most growth (absolute numbers) in 2017 are summarized in the table below. Jobs in the business, retail, health, and education sectors dominate the near-term forecast.

Fastest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2016/2017

Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017 ChangeChange % Change% Change


6421 Retail salespersons30,956 31,232 31,536 275 305 0.9% 1.0%

3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 15,301 15,566 15,851 265 285 1.7% 1.8%

1111 Financial auditors and accountants 17,577 17,777 17,981 200 205 1.1% 1.2%

1241 Administrative assistants12,481 12,641 12,810 160 169 1.3% 1.3%

6711 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 13,208 13,364 13,536 157 172 1.2% 1.3%

4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers9,897 10,046 10,207 148 161 1.5% 1.6%

1221 Administrative officers 12,473 12,620 12,776 148 156 1.2% 1.2%

0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers15,068 15,202 15,349 134 147 0.9% 1.0%

1411 General office support workers 9,803 9,929 10,062 126 133 1.3% 1.3%

2171 Information systems analysts and consultants10,098 10,222 10,350 124 128 1.2% 1.3%

Legend e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

While some occupations exist primarily within a single industry, in some instances, occupation demand is affected by changes in demand across several industries.

‣ Rising demand for nurses (NOC 3012) is projected due to demand increases in the Hospitals (NAICS 622) and Health Care Services (NAICS 621, 623, 624) industries.

‣ Higher demand for retail salespersons is due to consistent growth in the Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) industry.

‣ The education occupations increases are due to growth in Education Services (NAICS 61).

‣ The business/admin occupations are demanded across a wide variety of industries in Calgary, including Oil and gas extraction (NAICS 211), Professional, scientific and technical services (NAICS



54), Health care and social assistance (NAICS 62), Construction (NAICS 23), and Administrative and support services (NAICS 561).

Projections for all occupations can be found in Appendix B.28


28 To search for a specific occupation, type the occupation title or 4-digit NOC code to search the PDF.


Occupations With Stagnant Demand - Calgary Region 2017While there are no occupations projected to decline over the next two years in the Calgary Region, there are a number of occupations expected to show very minimal growth over this period. The occupations that are projected to experience the weakest growth (absolute numbers) in 2017 are summarized in the table below.

Slowest Growing Occupations - Calgary Region 2016/2017

Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017Sort based on change in worker demand 2016-2017 ChangeChange % Change% Change


7372 Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction 27 27 27 0 0 0.1% 0.4%

9227 Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly 15 15 16 0 1 0.7% 0.7%

5112 Conservators and curators 11 11 12 0 1 1.3% 1.4%

0413 Government managers - education policy development and program administration 11 11 12 0 1 1.7% 1.7%

9423 Rubber processing machine operators and related workers 23 23 23 0 0 0.9% 1.0%

7247 Cable television service and maintenance technicians 28 28 29 0 1 1.0% 1.1%

7234 Boilermakers 36 36 36 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

7371 Crane operators 304 304 306 0 2 0.1% 0.4%

7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics 128 129 129 1 0 0.1% 0.4%

7232 Tool and die makers 20 21 21 1 0 0.7% 0.7%

Legend e = estimatee = estimate f = forecastf = forecast

Projections for all occupations can be found in Appendix B.29


29 To search for a specific occupation, type the name (or occupation) or 4-digit NOC to search the PDF.


Appendix A: Forecast Methodology

Labour Market Demand and Supply Model (LMDSM)The model consists of an Occupational Demand module, an Occupational Supply module (which consists of a Population Forecast and Labour Supply module) and a Job Matching module. As in most occupational forecasting estimations, the model focuses on exploring the functioning and dynamics of labour markets under various economic scenarios.

Employers estimate the number of workers required for each occupation by considering the structure, cost, and productivity of their workforce, as well as current and anticipated levels of production. This decision-making process on the part of the employer is defined as “occupational demand for labour”. In the model, occupational demand includes the number of workers currently employed, as well as any additional vacancies that are created as a result of industry growth and attrition.

The number of individuals employed or actively seeking employment is the “occupational supply of labour”. Occupational supply is determined by the size and growth rate of the population, the share of the population willing to participate in the labour force, and the skills and training of these workforce participants. Other socio-economic factors that shape the supply of labour include the age distribution of the population; the retirement, migration and education choices of the labour force; and the prevailing economic climate.

Occupational forecasting has become a key instrument in predicting labour market imbalances. At the base of this model is the Manpower Requirements Approach (MRA), which first gained widespread recognition in the 1960s when employed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for educational planning purposes. This approach requires the estimation of two typically independently forecasted components: occupational demand and occupational supply. The occupational demand and supply forecasts are compared and if supply does not match demand, labour market imbalances are forecasted. These types of models rely on a number of economic assumptions, among them the premise that different occupations are non-substitutable. The supply of workers associated with one occupation has no immediate effect on the supply in another occupation, even if the occupations require similar sets of skills. Hence, the elasticity of substitution is assumed to be zero.

In reality, workers from different occupations may be fully or partially substitutable, provided that they possess sufficiently similar skill sets. Hence, the elasticity of substitution for occupations could vary between zero and one depending on the similarity of skill requirements. Taking a more realistic approach to analyze the functioning of a labour market, the model aims to consider inter-occupational mobility by developing a job matching mechanism, which carefully considers the factors that influence worker and employer decisions.

The job matching module employed in the model is broadly based on the “search and matching theory” influenced by the Nobel Prize winning work of Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and


APPENDIX AForecast Methodology

59

Christopher Pissarides. These researchers analyzed markets with search frictions and have been credited with the development of modern search and matching theory of unemployment.

In the model, a job seeker searches for suitable employment considering factors important to the individual such as job suitability, remuneration, the relative tightness of the labour market, as well as the manner of job separation from previous employment (seeking a higher wage/benefits, layoff, fired, etc.).

Simultaneously, an employer searches through potential candidates possessing certain attributes and compares them across a variety of criteria that reflect the skills required for the vacancy. Employers may also consider the relative tightness of the labour market and factors such as the fit of the candidate to the work environment and the manner of the candidate’s separation from prior employment. Hence, the job matching mechanism can be broadly described as a comparison of the attractiveness of the job opportunity (from the point of view of the job seeker) and the attractiveness of the worker (from the point of view of the employer) with consideration given to general labour market conditions.

“At each stage of the process a job seeker is paired with a position. The job seeker decides whether to apply for the position on the basis of its attractiveness. The employer then decides whether to call the applicant to interview on the basis of the application (his attractiveness). A job matching occurs after the interview only by mutual consent. These final decisions are based on both the attractiveness and character of the prospective partners. At equilibrium each individual uses a strategy appropriate to their type.”30

Model DescriptionThe model is comprised of three major modules. These include an estimation of labour demand, an estimation of labour supply (as related to population forecasts), and a job matching module that determines the suitability of matching across occupations.Occupational Demand Module:2016 Base Labour Demand (by NOC & NAICS): Base (2016) labour demand is estimated according to 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes and 3-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The model assumes that the labour market in the base year is in equilibrium. That is, the model does not estimate any labour demand shortages that may exist or have accumulated in the year(s) prior to the base.

Industry-Specific Output Growth Forecasts & Macroeconomic Reference Scenario: Additional labour demand resulting from expansionary economic activity is estimated according to exogenous provincial and industry-specific growth forecasts, as well as productivity considerations and the structure of each industry’s labour force in the base year. This base set of industry and provincial growth forecasts is the “Macroeconomic Reference Scenario”. Scenario- and occupation-specific rates of labour productivity growth are also applied.


30 David M. Ramsey and Stephen Kinsella, A Labour Market Model With Multiple Criteria, February 19, 2009.

60 APPENDIX A

Inter-Industry Trade Flows: Trade flows are incorporated into the model based on industry purchasing trends, using inter- and intra-provincial input-output tables drawn from Statistics Canada’s System of National Accounts. These tables are used to determine the industry-specific economic impacts resulting from higher (or lower) than anticipated growth in any industry, or from higher (or lower) than anticipated growth in any other province.

Replacement Demand due to Attrition: Along with expansionary labour demand generated according to industry- and province-specific growth forecasts, annual replacement demand is estimated according to attrition. The types of attrition considered in the model include retirement, mortality, emigration, and other voluntary and involuntary job separations. Reasons for job separation considered in the model include career advancement, pay/benefits, layoffs, firings, and a general “other” category.

Projected Labour Demand: Total labour demand in each period is estimated by taking demand in the prior period, adding expansionary and replacement labour demand, and subtracting any layoffs induced by forecasted output contractions.

Total Job Vacancies: The sum of expansionary and replacement labour demand growth in each period, adjusted according to structural and productivity considerations, provides the net number of employment vacancies according to 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS. These annual net vacancy estimates form the basis of forecasted labour demand to which labour supply is compared and assigned.Labour Supply and Population Components:The Population and Employment Projection Model uses an employment based methodology to project population. The model is driven by employment growth in key driver industries. In addition, commercial and non-commercial employment that is generated as a result of population growth is incorporated in the model.

Population projections are based on the net migration of workers and additional family members into the region required to meet the expected employment growth. The model also incorporates the aging of the permanent population, based on the Standard Component Method, which projects the individual components of the population rather than the population as a whole. By incorporating the Standard Component Method into the model, an estimate of age and gender can be provided for each forecast year, which are internally consistent with the total population and employment projections. Using employment to drive the net-migration component model helps to ensure the forecast is using consistent assumptions about provincial and economic growth.

2016 Base and Forecasted Population by Sub-Groups: Historical, base and forecasted population is estimated according to dimensions including geography, age, and gender.

2016 Base Labour Force: The model assumes that base (2016) labour supply in each province is comprised of the employed (base labour demand by 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS) along with the existing pool of unemployed.

Migration-Based Labour Force Growth: Through the forecast period, the supply of labour is impacted by economic scenario-specific rates of international and inter-provincial migration, along with the


61 APPENDIX A

participation rates and occupational skills/education traits assigned to these sub-populations. A population-forecasting module is applied to estimate the impact of scenario-specific changes in demographics on the labour force.

“Natural” Labour Force Growth (School Leavers & New Entrants): Similar to the above, the population-forecasting module is applied to estimate the demographic and associated labour force impact of new graduates and re-entrants into the pool of available job candidates.

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to the Existing Labour Force: Worker-specific skills and educational attainment are assigned to members of the labour force based on the “Essential Skills Profiles” developed by Employment and Social Development Canada. As the model applies equilibrium conditions in the base year, workers are assumed to be perfectly matched with their respective occupations and are assigned skill profiles accordingly. In cases where the most recent occupation of a worker is generally unknown (i.e. the existing pool of unemployed, new migrants, etc.), data is drawn from a variety of studies and sources to estimate the most likely skill and educational traits possessed.

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to New Entrants: Skill and educational traits are assigned to school leavers based on program enrolment rates in accordance with the Classification for Instructional Programs (CIP) system. Education traits are applied based on the major field of study as well as the level of education (less than high school, secondary, college, university, post-secondary aggregation). NOC-specific traits are applied for post-secondary enrolment in the case of trades occupations.

Total Unattached Workers in the Labour Force: The pool of unattached workers in each period is comprised of the unemployed, new international and interprovincial migrants, school leavers, and any worker estimated to have separated from their prior employment through the year.Job Matching Module:The purpose of this module is to address the concept of multi-occupational mobility in a realistic labour market setting. In some cases, occupational matching is a relatively straightforward exercise. Consider the example of recent graduates from a dental school, where realistic occupational mobility is generally limited to one specific occupation (NOC 3113 - Dentists). In this example, labour market imbalances may be forecasted based on a comparison of the projected number of additional dentists needed and the net projected number of dentists graduating or arriving in the province. Alternatively, consider the example of recent graduates from a business school, for whom there is no single (4-digit NOC) occupation that the supply of graduates would reasonably be expected to uniformly enter. There may be a multitude of employment options available to this sub-population, depending on forecasted economic conditions. The job matching module assigns a set of mobility probabilities for each origin occupation in accordance with worker type and overall forecasted economic conditions.

Occupational mobility is driven by the number of net vacancies (by 4-digit NOC and 3-digit NAICS) estimated in the labour demand component along with the pool of unattached workers for whom specific occupational skill profiles have been assigned in the labour supply and population components. The matching module estimates the suitability of a job candidate across all positions in the 4-digit NOC system.


62 APPENDIX A

The job candidate who has separated from prior employment seeks a position based on a number of criteria including skill type and level, educational attainment as well as the manner of their job separation (e.g. voluntary separation, firing, layoff, etc.) - a factor that influences the worker’s wage expectations. In a similar fashion, employers seek to fill vacancies by selecting the most suitable candidate. Employers assess a candidate’s skills and educational compatibility with the vacancy, as well as the applicant’s reason for prior job separation.

Forecasted Aggregate Unemployment Rate: The overall state of the economy is also a consideration when employers and job seekers interact. A worker is deemed suitable to fill a vacant position if a certain threshold of job matching is achieved in the model. This threshold varies according to projected economic conditions, with tighter labour market conditions generally allowing workers a greater degree of choice in occupation and a reduced inclination to accept low-skill or low-wage employment, and vice versa. The tightness of the labour market is primarily reflected by the unemployment rate.

To allow for a greater degree of realism in labour market interactions, employers rank candidates based on the nature of their separation from prior employment. For example, if two candidates possess identical skill and education attributes but differing manners of job separation – the first was fired and the second left to pursue career advancement – the model assumes that the employer prefers to hire the latter candidate due to the stigma typically attached to fired workers. Similar is the logic applied to new entrants to the labour market applying for vacancies. Although new entrants may possess the required skills and education to fill a vacancy, an employer typically prefers to hire an identical candidate with strong motivation (i.e. separated from previous job to pursue career advancement) or prior work experience. Provided that an employer’s top-choice candidates are insufficient to fill all vacancies, employers continue to hire workers until the vacancies are filled or the supply of suitable candidates is depleted.

Workers form wage expectations for prospective occupations based on the wage they received in a previous occupation, the manner of their job separation and the relative tightness of the labour market (as indicated by the unemployment rate).

The matching mechanism uses Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) Essential Skills Profiles to gauge the suitability of cross-occupational mobility, which are available at the 4-digit NOC level.

“Essential Skills are not the technical skills required by particular occupations but rather the skills applied in all occupations. For example, writing skills are required in a broad range of occupations. The complexity and frequency of writing varies, of course. Some workers fill out simple forms every day, while others write daily or monthly reports. Essential Skills enable people to do their work. For example, repair persons may have to read and understand written work orders before they can do the repairs.”31


31 Employment and Social Development Canada, Readers’ Guide to Essential Skills Profiles, November 2007, http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/les/profiles/readersguide.shtml

63 APPENDIX A

http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/les/profiles/readersguide.shtml




According to HRSDC, there are nine primary, essential skills which vary in usage and complexity depending on the occupation. In addition, each occupation is assigned most important essential skills (MIES) and a corresponding minimum and maximum required education level ranging from “no formal education or training” to “post graduate or professional degree”.HRSDC Essential Skills:Reading Text, Document Use, Writing, Numeracy, Oral Communication, Thinking Skills, Problem Solving, Decision Making, Critical Thinking, Job Task Planning and Organizing, Significant Use of Memory, Finding Information, Working with Others, Computer Use, and Continuous Learning.

End-of-Period Unfilled Positions (Shortages) & Type of Shortage: At the end of each period of the forecast, the magnitude and type of any estimated labour shortage is assessed. The first type of labour shortage is induced by skill limitations in the supply of labour. In this case, employers were unable to fill all vacancies due to a lack of suitably skilled workers in the available supply of labour. The second type of labour shortage is induced by a lack of matching efficiency in the labour market. In this case, the existing pool of unattached labour was sufficient in size and ability to fill all vacancies, but matching did not occur. Potential causes of this type of shortage may include an insufficiently high wage as to attract the worker, or the worker not perfectly realizing their candidacy for the position. Labour shortages carry over to the next period of the forecast, at which time employers again attempt to fill their vacancies.

Unmatched Labour Force (Unemployed) & Traits of the Unemployed: By analyzing the outputs of the matching mechanism at the end of each period, a detailed understanding of the types of workers in excess supply, along with the skill characteristics of those more likely to remain unemployed can be examined. These are the members of the labour force who were not successfully matched with a job vacancy, and they remain in the pool of unemployed until the next period, adjusting their employment expectations accordingly.


64 APPENDIX A

Labour Demand Model

2016 Base Labour Demand (by NOC &

NAICS)

Industry-Specific Output Growth Forecasts

Aggregate Labour Demand Forecast

Inter-Industry Trade Flows & Productivity

Assumptions

Total Job Vacancies

Unemployment Rate Forecast

End-of-Period Unfilled Vacancies (Shortages)

Labour Supply Model

2016 Base Labour Force (by NOC & NAICS)

Labour Force Growth Forecast (International & Interprovincial Migration)

Distribution of Skill/Education Profiles to

Labour Force

"Natural" Labour Force Growth (Schools Leavers

& New Entrants)

Total Unattached Workers

Unmatched Labour Force (Unemployed)

Macroeconomic Reference Scenario &

Assumptions

Replacement Demand due to Attrition

Population Model

Job Matching Mechanism

Next Period


65 APPENDIX A

Appendix B: Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts

e = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecaste = estimate / f = forecast ChangeChange % Change% Change

Occupation (NOC) 2016e 2017f 2018f 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18

Total - All Occupations 803,300 812,484 822,334 9,184 9,850 1.1% 1.2%

0 Management occupations 93,903 94,899 95,949 997 1,050 1.1% 1.1%

00 Senior management occupations 10,677 10,794 10,917 117 122 1.1% 1.1%

001 Legislators and senior management 10,685 10,802 10,924 117 122 1.1% 1.1%

0011 Legislators 60 61 62 1 1 1.7% 1.7%

0012 Senior government managers and officials 226 230 234 4 4 1.7% 1.7%

0013 Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services 3,591 3,635 3,676 45 41 1.2% 1.1%

0014 Senior managers - health, education, social and community services and membership organizations 995 1,012 1,030 17 18 1.7% 1.8%

0015 Senior managers - trade, broadcasting and other services, n.e.c. 1,767 1,785 1,804 17 19 1.0% 1.1%

0016 Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities 3,917 3,949 3,987 32 37 0.8% 0.9%

01-05 Specialized middle management occupations 32,675 33,083 33,485 408 402 1.2% 1.2%

011 Administrative services managers 9,522 9,629 9,741 107 111 1.1% 1.2%

0111 Financial managers 3,955 4,000 4,045 45 45 1.1% 1.1%

0112 Human resources managers 2,645 2,675 2,705 29 31 1.1% 1.2%

0113 Purchasing managers 739 746 753 7 7 0.9% 1.0%

0114 Other administrative services managers 1,197 1,212 1,228 15 16 1.3% 1.3%

012 Managers in financial and business services 9,924 10,047 10,149 123 102 1.2% 1.0%

0121 Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers 3,562 3,601 3,624 40 22 1.1% 0.6%

0122 Banking, credit and other investment managers 2,974 3,018 3,057 44 39 1.5% 1.3%

0124 Advertising, marketing and public relations managers 2,250 2,276 2,303 26 27 1.2% 1.2%

0125 Other business services managers 692 700 709 8 8 1.2% 1.2%

013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) 802 811 821 9 10 1.1% 1.2%

0131 Telecommunication carriers managers 593 599 605 6 6 0.9% 1.0%


APPENDIX BCalgary Region Detailed Occupation Demand Forecasts

66



0132 Postal and courier services managers 203 206 210 3 4 1.6% 1.8%

021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems 5,183 5,244 5,308 61 64 1.2% 1.2%

0211 Engineering managers 1,702 1,721 1,741 19 20 1.1% 1.2%

0212 Architecture and science managers 296 300 304 4 4 1.2% 1.3%

0213 Computer and information systems managers 2,828 2,862 2,898 34 36 1.2% 1.2%

031 Managers in health care 997 1,014 1,032 17 18 1.7% 1.8%

0311 Managers in health care 997 1,014 1,032 17 18 1.7% 1.8%

041 Managers in public administration 378 384 391 7 7 1.7% 1.8%

0411 Government managers - health and social policy development and program administration 41 41 42 1 1 1.8% 1.9%

0412 Government managers - economic analysis, policy development and program administration 113 115 117 2 2 1.7% 1.8%

0413 Government managers - education policy development and program administration 11 11 12 0 0 1.7% 1.7%

0414 Other managers in public administration 158 161 163 3 3 1.7% 1.7%

042 Managers in education and social and community services 3,346 3,398 3,454 52 56 1.6% 1.7%

0421 Administrators - post-secondary education and vocational training 821 833 847 12 14 1.5% 1.6%

0422 School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education 1,361 1,382 1,404 20 22 1.5% 1.6%

0423 Managers in social, community and correctional services 1,066 1,083 1,103 18 19 1.7% 1.8%

043 Managers in public protection services 166 168 171 3 3 1.7% 1.7%

0431 Commissioned police officers 26 27 27 0 0 1.7% 1.7%

0432 Fire chiefs and senior firefighting officers 38 38 39 1 1 1.7% 1.7%

0433 Commissioned officers of the Canadian Forces 98 99 101 2 2 1.7% 1.7%

051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport 998 1,011 1,025 13 14 1.3% 1.4%

0511 Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 104 106 107 1 2 1.4% 1.5%

0512 Managers - publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting and performing arts 365 369 373 4 4 1.0% 1.1%


67 APPENDIX B



0513 Recreation, sports and fitness program and service directors 481 488 495 7 7 1.4% 1.5%

06 Middle management occupations in retail and wholesale trade and customer services 29,633 29,927 30,248 294 320 1.0% 1.1%

060 Corporate sales managers 5,234 5,286 5,342 52 56 1.0% 1.1%

0601 Corporate sales managers 5,244 5,296 5,352 52 56 1.0% 1.1%

062 Retail and wholesale trade managers 15,056 15,190 15,337 134 147 0.9% 1.0%

0621 Retail and wholesale trade managers 15,068 15,202 15,349 134 147 0.9% 1.0%

063 Managers in food service and accommodation 6,877 6,957 7,044 80 87 1.2% 1.3%

0631 Restaurant and food service managers 5,935 6,003 6,078 68 75 1.2% 1.3%

0632 Accommodation service managers 834 844 854 10 10 1.2% 1.2%

065 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 1,740 1,759 1,779 19 20 1.1% 1.1%

0651 Managers in customer and personal services, n.e.c. 1,746 1,765 1,785 19 20 1.1% 1.1%

07-09 Middle management occupations in trades, transportation, production and utilities 20,373 20,544 20,742 171 198 0.8% 1.0%

071 Managers in construction and facility operation and maintenance 11,013 11,067 11,143 54 76 0.5% 0.7%

0711 Construction managers 5,612 5,629 5,659 16 30 0.3% 0.5%

0712 Home building and renovation managers 2,384 2,388 2,397 3 10 0.1% 0.4%

0714 Facility operation and maintenance managers 2,592 2,621 2,651 29 30 1.1% 1.2%

073 Managers in transportation 1,540 1,559 1,579 19 20 1.3% 1.3%

0731 Managers in transportation 1,539 1,559 1,578 19 20 1.3% 1.3%

081 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 2,330 2,354 2,378 24 24 1.0% 1.0%

0811 Managers in natural resources production and fishing 2,348 2,372 2,396 24 25 1.0% 1.0%

082 Managers in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture 844 856 866 12 10 1.4% 1.2%

0821 Managers in agriculture 789 800 810 11 10 1.4% 1.2%

0822 Managers in horticulture 49 49 50 1 1 1.4% 1.2%

0823 Managers in aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%


68 APPENDIX B



091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities 3,711 3,762 3,819 51 57 1.4% 1.5%

0911 Manufacturing managers 2,475 2,505 2,539 30 34 1.2% 1.4%

0912 Utilities managers 1,104 1,124 1,145 20 21 1.8% 1.9%

1 Business, finance and administration occupations 149,768 151,602 153,494 1,834 1,891 1.2% 1.2%

11 Professional occupations in business and finance 37,419 37,885 38,354 466 468 1.2% 1.2%

111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals 25,272 25,583 25,890 311 307 1.2% 1.2%

1111 Financial auditors and accountants 17,577 17,777 17,981 200 205 1.1% 1.2%

1112 Financial and investment analysts 2,053 2,081 2,109 28 28 1.4% 1.3%

1113 Securities agents, investment dealers and brokers 1,123 1,141 1,158 18 17 1.6% 1.5%

1114 Other financial officers 4,129 4,190 4,244 61 54 1.5% 1.3%

112 Human resources and business service professionals 11,878 12,030 12,188 152 158 1.3% 1.3%

1121 Human resources professionals 2,896 2,934 2,973 38 39 1.3% 1.3%

1122 Professional occupations in business management consulting 4,843 4,903 4,965 60 62 1.2% 1.3%

1123 Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations 3,493 3,541 3,590 47 50 1.4% 1.4%

12 Administrative and financial supervisors and administrative occupations 49,284 49,877 50,484 592 608 1.2% 1.2%

121 Administrative services supervisors 3,408 3,448 3,490 40 42 1.2% 1.2%

1211 Supervisors, general office and administrative support workers 450 456 463 6 7 1.4% 1.5%

1212 Supervisors, finance and insurance office workers 592 600 607 8 7 1.3% 1.2%

1213 Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers 68 69 70 1 1 1.7% 1.7%

1214 Supervisors, mail and message distribution occupations 166 168 171 3 3 1.6% 1.8%

1215 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 1,580 1,596 1,613 16 17 1.0% 1.1%

122 Administrative and regulatory occupations 28,354 28,684 29,016 330 332 1.2% 1.2%

1221 Administrative officers 12,473 12,620 12,776 148 156 1.2% 1.2%


69 APPENDIX B



1222 Executive assistants 2,406 2,437 2,468 31 31 1.3% 1.3%

1223 Human resources and recruitment officers 1,767 1,789 1,811 22 23 1.2% 1.3%

1224 Property administrators 2,463 2,487 2,500 25 13 1.0% 0.5%

1225 Purchasing agents and officers 6,099 6,163 6,229 64 66 1.0% 1.1%

1226 Conference and event planners 965 978 991 13 13 1.3% 1.4%

1227 Court officers and justices of the peace 109 111 113 2 2 1.7% 1.7%

1228 Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers 493 501 510 8 9 1.7% 1.7%

124 Office administrative assistants - general, legal and medical 15,248 15,443 15,646 194 203 1.3% 1.3%

1241 Administrative assistants 12,481 12,641 12,810 160 169 1.3% 1.3%

1242 Legal administrative assistants 2,409 2,439 2,468 29 29 1.2% 1.2%

1243 Medical administrative assistants 209 213 217 4 4 1.7% 1.8%

125 Court reporters, transcriptionists, records management technicians and statistical officers 1,401 1,421 1,441 20 20 1.4% 1.4%

1251 Court reporters, medical transcriptionists and related occupations 367 372 378 6 6 1.5% 1.6%

1252 Health information management occupations 142 144 147 3 3 1.8% 1.9%

1253 Records management technicians 550 557 564 7 7 1.2% 1.2%

1254 Statistical officers and related research support occupations 184 187 189 2 2 1.2% 1.2%

13 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 9,348 9,458 9,565 110 108 1.2% 1.1%

131 Finance, insurance and related business administrative occupations 9,350 9,459 9,567 110 108 1.2% 1.1%

1311 Accounting technicians and bookkeepers 6,671 6,743 6,817 72 75 1.1% 1.1%

1312 Insurance adjusters and claims examiners 996 1,011 1,024 15 13 1.5% 1.3%

1313 Insurance underwriters 829 842 852 13 11 1.5% 1.3%

1314 Assessors, valuators and appraisers 534 541 546 7 5 1.2% 1.0%

1315 Customs, ship and other brokers 98 99 100 1 1 0.9% 1.0%

14 Office support occupations 37,033 37,503 37,994 470 491 1.3% 1.3%

141 General office workers 18,966 19,215 19,478 249 263 1.3% 1.4%

1411 General office support workers 9,803 9,929 10,062 126 133 1.3% 1.3%


70 APPENDIX B



1414 Receptionists 8,079 8,187 8,302 108 115 1.3% 1.4%

1415 Personnel clerks 368 373 379 5 6 1.5% 1.5%

1416 Court clerks 120 122 125 2 2 1.7% 1.7%

142 Office equipment operators 2,434 2,466 2,499 32 33 1.3% 1.3%

1422 Data entry clerks 2,351 2,382 2,413 31 32 1.3% 1.3%

1423 Desktop publishing operators and related occupations 55 56 56 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

143 Financial, insurance and related administrative support workers 11,485 11,620 11,759 135 138 1.2% 1.2%

1431 Accounting and related clerks 7,970 8,060 8,153 90 93 1.1% 1.2%

1432 Payroll clerks 1,523 1,541 1,560 18 19 1.2% 1.2%

1434 Banking, insurance and other financial clerks 983 997 1,010 15 12 1.5% 1.3%

1435 Collectors 177 180 182 3 2 1.4% 1.4%

145 Library, correspondence and other clerks 3,423 3,470 3,519 47 49 1.4% 1.4%

1451 Library assistants and clerks 1,042 1,054 1,067 12 13 1.1% 1.2%

1452 Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks 1,419 1,437 1,454 18 18 1.2% 1.2%

1454 Survey interviewers and statistical clerks 885 901 918 17 17 1.9% 1.9%

15 Distribution, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 15,896 16,081 16,285 185 205 1.2% 1.3%

151 Mail and message distribution occupations 4,172 4,236 4,309 65 73 1.5% 1.7%

1511 Mail, postal and related workers 1,356 1,377 1,402 21 24 1.6% 1.8%

1512 Letter carriers 1,381 1,403 1,429 22 25 1.6% 1.8%

1513 Couriers, messengers and door-to-door distributors 1,357 1,378 1,400 20 22 1.5% 1.6%

152 Supply chain logistics, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations 11,562 11,680 11,810 118 130 1.0% 1.1%

1521 Shippers and receivers 5,030 5,079 5,134 49 55 1.0% 1.1%

1522 Storekeepers and partspersons 1,699 1,714 1,731 15 17 0.9% 1.0%

1523 Production logistics co-ordinators 888 897 908 10 11 1.1% 1.2%

1524 Purchasing and inventory control workers 1,289 1,301 1,315 12 14 1.0% 1.1%

1525 Dispatchers 1,070 1,083 1,097 13 14 1.2% 1.3%


71 APPENDIX B



1526 Transportation route and crew schedulers 176 179 181 3 3 1.4% 1.4%

2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 95,260 96,340 97,462 1,079 1,122 1.1% 1.2%

21 Professional occupations in natural and applied sciences 60,065 60,757 61,470 692 713 1.2% 1.2%

211 Physical science professionals 6,418 6,488 6,559 70 71 1.1% 1.1%

2111 Physicists and astronomers 57 58 58 1 1 1.4% 1.5%

2112 Chemists 579 586 593 7 7 1.1% 1.2%

2113 Geoscientists and oceanographers 5,612 5,673 5,734 60 61 1.1% 1.1%

2114 Meteorologists and climatologists 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2115 Other professional occupations in physical sciences 49 49 50 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

212 Life science professionals 1,171 1,186 1,202 15 16 1.3% 1.3%

2121 Biologists and related scientists 1,040 1,053 1,067 14 14 1.3% 1.3%

2122 Forestry professionals 30 31 31 0 0 1.2% 1.2%

2123 Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists 84 85 86 1 1 1.3% 1.3%

213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers 16,950 17,144 17,344 194 201 1.1% 1.2%

2131 Civil engineers 4,918 4,975 5,034 57 59 1.2% 1.2%

2132 Mechanical engineers 5,133 5,190 5,248 57 59 1.1% 1.1%

2133 Electrical and electronics engineers 4,243 4,295 4,349 52 53 1.2% 1.2%

2134 Chemical engineers 2,205 2,229 2,254 24 25 1.1% 1.1%

214 Other engineers 11,684 11,809 11,939 126 129 1.1% 1.1%

2141 Industrial and manufacturing engineers 836 845 856 9 10 1.1% 1.2%

2142 Metallurgical and materials engineers 170 172 174 2 2 1.2% 1.2%

2143 Mining engineers 218 221 223 2 3 1.1% 1.1%

2144 Geological engineers 298 301 305 3 4 1.2% 1.2%

2145 Petroleum engineers 7,260 7,336 7,414 76 78 1.0% 1.1%

2146 Aerospace engineers 60 61 61 1 1 0.9% 0.9%

2147 Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers) 1,375 1,390 1,406 15 16 1.1% 1.1%


72 APPENDIX B



2148 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. 939 950 961 11 11 1.2% 1.2%

215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors 2,602 2,634 2,667 32 33 1.2% 1.2%

2151 Architects 924 935 946 11 11 1.2% 1.2%

2152 Landscape architects 122 123 125 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

2153 Urban and land use planners 586 594 602 8 8 1.3% 1.3%

2154 Land surveyors 802 812 822 10 10 1.2% 1.2%

216 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 278 282 286 4 4 1.4% 1.4%

2161 Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries 272 276 280 4 4 1.4% 1.4%

217 Computer and information systems professionals 19,979 20,218 20,465 240 247 1.2% 1.2%

2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 10,098 10,222 10,350 124 128 1.2% 1.3%

2172 Database analysts and data administrators 966 978 991 12 12 1.2% 1.3%

2173 Software engineers and designers 2,116 2,140 2,163 24 24 1.1% 1.1%

2174 Computer programmers and interactive media developers 5,158 5,219 5,282 61 63 1.2% 1.2%

2175 Web designers and developers 654 662 670 8 8 1.2% 1.2%

22 Technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences 34,955 35,339 35,745 384 405 1.1% 1.1%

221 Technical occupations in physical sciences 4,238 4,284 4,332 47 48 1.1% 1.1%

2211 Chemical technologists and technicians 1,240 1,254 1,269 14 15 1.1% 1.2%

2212 Geological and mineral technologists and technicians 2,827 2,857 2,887 30 30 1.1% 1.1%

222 Technical occupations in life sciences 753 763 774 10 11 1.4% 1.4%

2221 Biological technologists and technicians 126 127 129 2 2 1.3% 1.3%

2222 Agricultural and fish products inspectors 80 81 83 1 1 1.7% 1.8%

2223 Forestry technologists and technicians 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2224 Conservation and fishery officers 23 23 23 0 0 1.7% 1.7%

2225 Landscape and horticulture technicians and specialists 440 445 451 6 6 1.3% 1.3%

223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering 4,849 4,890 4,937 41 47 0.8% 1.0%

2231 Civil engineering technologists and technicians 1,453 1,469 1,486 16 17 1.1% 1.2%


73 APPENDIX B



2232 Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians 1,013 1,022 1,032 9 9 0.9% 0.9%

2233 Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 663 670 678 7 8 1.1% 1.1%

2234 Construction estimators 1,393 1,397 1,405 4 8 0.3% 0.6%

224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering 5,642 5,698 5,758 56 60 1.0% 1.1%

2241 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians 2,221 2,243 2,266 21 23 1.0% 1.0%

2242 Electronic service technicians (household and business equipment) 2,323 2,347 2,372 24 25 1.0% 1.1%

2243 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 521 526 531 5 5 0.9% 1.0%

2244 Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors 240 243 246 3 3 1.2% 1.3%

225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics and meteorology 5,564 5,624 5,688 60 64 1.1% 1.1%

2251 Architectural technologists and technicians 777 784 791 7 8 0.9% 1.0%

2252 Industrial designers 224 227 230 3 3 1.3% 1.3%

2253 Drafting technologists and technicians 3,360 3,395 3,433 36 38 1.1% 1.1%

2254 Land survey technologists and technicians 146 148 150 2 2 1.2% 1.2%

2255 Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology 749 758 767 9 9 1.2% 1.2%

226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers 3,188 3,224 3,262 36 38 1.1% 1.2%

2261 Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 364 368 371 4 4 1.0% 1.0%

2262 Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers 405 412 420 7 7 1.7% 1.7%

2263 Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety 1,397 1,412 1,429 15 16 1.1% 1.2%

2264 Construction inspectors 686 691 698 6 7 0.8% 0.9%

227 Transportation officers and controllers 1,809 1,838 1,868 30 30 1.7% 1.6%

2271 Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors 1,424 1,449 1,474 25 25 1.8% 1.7%

2272 Air traffic controllers and related occupations 147 150 152 2 2 1.5% 1.5%


74 APPENDIX B



2273 Deck officers, water transport 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2274 Engineer officers, water transport 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

2275 Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators 166 168 169 2 2 1.1% 1.1%

228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems 7,113 7,197 7,284 84 87 1.2% 1.2%

2281 Computer network technicians 3,590 3,633 3,677 42 44 1.2% 1.2%

2282 User support technicians 2,782 2,815 2,849 33 34 1.2% 1.2%

2283 Information systems testing technicians 248 251 253 3 3 1.1% 1.1%

3 Health occupations 51,847 52,688 53,596 841 907 1.6% 1.7%

30 Professional occupations in nursing 15,511 15,780 16,069 269 289 1.7% 1.8%

301 Professional occupations in nursing 15,504 15,773 16,062 269 289 1.7% 1.8%

3011 Nursing co-ordinators and supervisors 223 227 231 4 4 1.7% 1.8%

3012 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 15,301 15,566 15,851 265 285 1.7% 1.8%

31 Professional occupations in health (except nursing) 11,899 12,085 12,286 186 201 1.6% 1.7%

311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians 6,165 6,265 6,373 100 108 1.6% 1.7%

3111 Specialist physicians 2,058 2,093 2,131 35 38 1.7% 1.8%

3112 General practitioners and family physicians 2,716 2,761 2,810 45 49 1.7% 1.8%

3113 Dentists 925 940 956 15 16 1.6% 1.7%

3114 Veterinarians 427 432 437 5 5 1.2% 1.2%

312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals 1,067 1,084 1,103 17 19 1.6% 1.7%

3121 Optometrists 351 357 363 6 6 1.6% 1.7%

3122 Chiropractors 270 274 279 4 5 1.6% 1.7%

3124 Allied primary health practitioners 358 364 370 6 6 1.6% 1.7%

3125 Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating 88 89 91 1 2 1.6% 1.7%

313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists 1,773 1,795 1,819 22 24 1.2% 1.3%

3131 Pharmacists 1,462 1,478 1,497 17 18 1.1% 1.2%

3132 Dietitians and nutritionists 282 286 291 5 5 1.6% 1.7%


75 APPENDIX B



314 Therapy and assessment professionals 2,764 2,809 2,858 45 49 1.6% 1.7%

3141 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists 516 524 533 8 9 1.6% 1.7%

3142 Physiotherapists 1,009 1,026 1,044 16 18 1.6% 1.7%

3143 Occupational therapists 780 793 807 13 14 1.7% 1.8%

3144 Other professional occupations in therapy and assessment 440 447 454 7 8 1.6% 1.7%

32 Technical occupations in health 14,452 14,675 14,917 224 242 1.5% 1.6%

321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 6,737 6,838 6,947 101 109 1.5% 1.6%

3211 Medical laboratory technologists 1,196 1,215 1,235 19 21 1.6% 1.7%

3212 Medical laboratory technicians and pathologists' assistants 1,520 1,544 1,570 24 26 1.6% 1.7%

3213 Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians 578 586 593 7 7 1.2% 1.2%

3214 Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists 547 556 566 9 10 1.7% 1.8%

3215 Medical radiation technologists 979 996 1,013 16 18 1.7% 1.8%

3216 Medical sonographers 324 330 335 5 6 1.7% 1.8%

3217 Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists, n.e.c. 122 124 126 2 2 1.7% 1.8%

3219 Other medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) 1,351 1,367 1,385 16 18 1.2% 1.3%

322 Technical occupations in dental health care 1,588 1,615 1,644 27 30 1.7% 1.8%

3221 Denturists 63 64 65 1 1 1.7% 1.9%

3222 Dental hygienists and dental therapists 1,020 1,036 1,054 16 18 1.6% 1.7%

3223 Dental technologists, technicians and laboratory assistants 500 509 520 9 11 1.8% 2.1%

323 Other technical occupations in health care 6,070 6,165 6,267 95 102 1.6% 1.7%

3231 Opticians 401 407 412 5 6 1.3% 1.4%

3232 Practitioners of natural healing 358 364 370 6 6 1.6% 1.7%

3233 Licensed practical nurses 2,325 2,364 2,407 39 42 1.7% 1.8%

3234 Paramedical occupations 1,051 1,069 1,088 17 19 1.7% 1.8%

3236 Massage therapists 1,635 1,657 1,682 23 25 1.4% 1.5%


76 APPENDIX B



3237 Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment 171 174 177 3 3 1.6% 1.7%

34 Assisting occupations in support of health services 9,703 9,863 10,035 159 172 1.6% 1.7%

341 Assisting occupations in support of health services 9,712 9,871 10,044 160 172 1.6% 1.7%

3411 Dental assistants 1,729 1,757 1,786 28 30 1.6% 1.7%

3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates 6,362 6,467 6,580 105 113 1.7% 1.8%

3414 Other assisting occupations in support of health services 1,516 1,541 1,568 25 27 1.7% 1.8%

4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 80,432 81,607 82,864 1,175 1,257 1.5% 1.5%

40 Professional occupations in education services 26,866 27,269 27,704 403 435 1.5% 1.6%

401 University professors and post-secondary assistants 6,677 6,778 6,886 100 109 1.5% 1.6%

4011 University professors and lecturers 3,663 3,718 3,777 55 59 1.5% 1.6%

4012 Post-secondary teaching and research assistants 3,021 3,066 3,115 45 49 1.5% 1.6%

402 College and other vocational instructors 3,223 3,271 3,322 48 51 1.5% 1.6%

4021 College and other vocational instructors 3,212 3,260 3,311 48 51 1.5% 1.6%

403 Secondary and elementary school teachers and educational counsellors 16,798 17,050 17,323 252 273 1.5% 1.6%

4031 Secondary school teachers 6,150 6,243 6,343 92 100 1.5% 1.6%

4032 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 9,897 10,046 10,207 148 161 1.5% 1.6%

4033 Educational counsellors 723 734 745 11 12 1.5% 1.6%

41 Professional occupations in law and social, community and government services 22,774 23,097 23,435 323 338 1.4% 1.5%

411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries 5,246 5,312 5,378 66 66 1.2% 1.3%

4111 Judges 60 61 62 1 1 1.7% 1.7%

4112 Lawyers and Quebec notaries 5,160 5,224 5,289 64 65 1.2% 1.2%

415 Social and community service professionals 6,807 6,920 7,040 113 121 1.7% 1.7%

4151 Psychologists 1,232 1,252 1,273 20 21 1.6% 1.7%

4152 Social workers 2,077 2,111 2,148 34 37 1.7% 1.7%


77 APPENDIX B



4153 Family, marriage and other related counsellors 1,296 1,318 1,340 21 23 1.6% 1.7%

4154 Professional occupations in religion 1,437 1,463 1,491 26 28 1.8% 1.9%

4155 Probation and parole officers and related occupations 117 119 121 2 2 1.7% 1.7%

4156 Employment counsellors 513 520 528 8 8 1.5% 1.5%

416 Policy and program researchers, consultants and officers 10,432 10,574 10,722 142 148 1.4% 1.4%

4161 Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers 2,147 2,175 2,204 28 29 1.3% 1.3%

4162 Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts 709 719 729 10 10 1.4% 1.4%

4163 Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants 2,886 2,921 2,958 35 37 1.2% 1.3%

4164 Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers 614 623 633 9 9 1.5% 1.5%

4165 Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers 1,036 1,052 1,070 16 18 1.6% 1.7%

4166 Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers 993 1,008 1,024 15 16 1.5% 1.6%

4167 Recreation, sports and fitness policy researchers, consultants and program officers 460 468 476 7 8 1.6% 1.7%

4168 Program officers unique to government 403 409 416 7 7 1.7% 1.7%

4169 Other professional occupations in social science, n.e.c. 294 298 302 4 4 1.3% 1.3%

42 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 13,980 14,199 14,433 219 234 1.6% 1.7%

421 Paraprofessional occupations in legal, social, community and education services 13,994 14,213 14,447 219 235 1.6% 1.7%

4211 Paralegal and related occupations 1,083 1,096 1,109 13 13 1.2% 1.2%

4212 Social and community service workers 4,090 4,156 4,226 66 70 1.6% 1.7%

4214 Early childhood educators and assistants 7,042 7,154 7,276 112 121 1.6% 1.7%

4215 Instructors of persons with disabilities 160 162 165 2 3 1.6% 1.7%

4216 Other instructors 950 965 980 14 16 1.5% 1.6%

4217 Other religious occupations 373 380 387 7 7 1.8% 1.9%


78 APPENDIX B



43 Occupations in front-line public protection services 3,149 3,203 3,258 53 55 1.7% 1.7%

431 Occupations in front-line public protection services 3,139 3,192 3,247 53 55 1.7% 1.7%

4311 Police officers (except commissioned) 1,911 1,944 1,977 32 33 1.7% 1.7%

4312 Firefighters 1,016 1,033 1,051 17 18 1.7% 1.7%

4313 Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces 218 222 226 4 4 1.7% 1.7%

44 Care providers and educational, legal and public protection support occupations 12,729 12,897 13,080 168 183 1.3% 1.4%

441 Home care providers and educational support occupations 12,116 12,274 12,447 158 172 1.3% 1.4%

4411 Home child care providers 5,434 5,493 5,557 59 65 1.1% 1.2%

4412 Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations 2,605 2,643 2,685 38 42 1.5% 1.6%

4413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants 3,995 4,055 4,120 60 65 1.5% 1.6%

442 Legal and public protection support occupations 539 548 557 9 9 1.7% 1.7%

4421 Sheriffs and bailiffs 94 96 97 2 2 1.7% 1.7%

4422 Correctional service officers 290 295 300 5 5 1.7% 1.7%

4423 By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c. 120 122 124 2 2 1.6% 1.7%

5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 18,982 19,218 19,472 236 253 1.2% 1.3%

51 Professional occupations in art and culture 6,338 6,419 6,505 80 86 1.3% 1.3%

511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators 485 491 497 6 6 1.1% 1.2%

5111 Librarians 422 426 431 5 5 1.1% 1.2%

5112 Conservators and curators 11 11 12 0 0 1.3% 1.4%

5113 Archivists 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

512 Writing, translating and related communications professionals 2,095 2,119 2,145 25 26 1.2% 1.2%

5121 Authors and writers 833 843 853 10 11 1.2% 1.2%

5122 Editors 547 553 559 6 6 1.1% 1.2%

5123 Journalists 332 335 339 3 4 1.0% 1.1%


79 APPENDIX B



5125 Translators, terminologists and interpreters 146 148 150 2 2 1.3% 1.3%

513 Creative and performing artists 3,513 3,560 3,611 47 51 1.3% 1.4%

5131 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations 517 522 528 5 6 1.0% 1.1%

5132 Conductors, composers and arrangers 54 54 55 1 1 1.6% 1.7%

5133 Musicians and singers 1,602 1,625 1,650 23 25 1.4% 1.5%

5134 Dancers 375 380 386 5 6 1.5% 1.6%

5135 Actors and comedians 259 262 265 3 3 1.2% 1.3%

5136 Painters, sculptors and other visual artists 499 505 512 6 7 1.3% 1.4%

52 Technical occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 12,408 12,562 12,727 154 165 1.2% 1.3%

521 Technical occupations in libraries, public archives, museums and art galleries 605 614 623 9 9 1.4% 1.5%

5211 Library and public archive technicians 472 479 486 7 7 1.4% 1.5%

5212 Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries 62 63 63 1 1 1.3% 1.4%

522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

2,226 2,252 2,279 26 27 1.2% 1.2%

5221 Photographers 841 851 861 10 10 1.2% 1.2%

5222 Film and video camera operators 163 165 166 1 2 0.9% 1.0%

5223 Graphic arts technicians 114 116 118 2 2 1.5% 1.7%

5224 Broadcast technicians 174 176 178 2 2 1.0% 1.1%

5225 Audio and video recording technicians 418 422 427 5 5 1.1% 1.1%

5226 Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts

131 133 135 2 2 1.2% 1.3%

5227 Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts 182 184 186 2 2 1.0% 1.1%

523 Announcers and other performers, n.e.c. 346 350 355 4 4 1.1% 1.2%

5231 Announcers and other broadcasters 185 188 190 2 2 1.1% 1.2%

5232 Other performers, n.e.c. 124 125 127 2 2 1.3% 1.4%

524 Creative designers and craftspersons 4,379 4,430 4,483 50 54 1.1% 1.2%

5241 Graphic designers and illustrators 2,159 2,186 2,215 27 29 1.2% 1.3%


80 APPENDIX B



5242 Interior designers and interior decorators 1,369 1,384 1,399 15 15 1.1% 1.1%

5243 Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers 280 282 285 3 3 1.0% 1.1%

5244 Artisans and craftspersons 289 292 295 3 3 1.0% 1.2%

5245 Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations 4,293 4,351 4,415 59 64 1.4% 1.5%

5251 Athletes 79 80 81 1 1 1.3% 1.4%

5252 Coaches 668 678 688 10 10 1.4% 1.5%

5253 Sports officials and referees 114 115 117 1 2 1.3% 1.4%

5254 Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness 3,365 3,411 3,460 46 49 1.4% 1.4%

6 Sales and service occupations 169,413 171,268 173,241 1,855 1,973 1.1% 1.2%

62 Retail sales supervisors and specialized sales occupations 15,644 15,817 15,976 172 160 1.1% 1.0%

621 Retail sales supervisors 2,661 2,685 2,711 24 26 0.9% 1.0%

6211 Retail sales supervisors 2,661 2,685 2,710 24 26 0.9% 1.0%

622 Technical sales specialists in wholesale trade and retail and wholesale buyers 5,672 5,725 5,784 54 58 0.9% 1.0%

6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade 3,996 4,034 4,076 38 41 1.0% 1.0%

6222 Retail and wholesale buyers 1,482 1,496 1,511 13 15 0.9% 1.0%

623 Insurance, real estate and financial sales occupations 6,743 6,831 6,900 88 68 1.3% 1.0%

6231 Insurance agents and brokers 2,127 2,159 2,188 32 28 1.5% 1.3%

6232 Real estate agents and salespersons 2,447 2,471 2,483 24 12 1.0% 0.5%

6235 Financial sales representatives 2,010 2,040 2,067 30 26 1.5% 1.3%

63 Service supervisors and specialized service occupations 22,617 22,873 23,154 256 281 1.1% 1.2%

631 Service supervisors 3,487 3,531 3,577 43 46 1.2% 1.3%

6311 Food service supervisors 1,413 1,429 1,447 16 18 1.2% 1.3%

6312 Executive housekeepers 124 125 127 1 2 1.2% 1.2%

6313 Accommodation, travel, tourism and related services supervisors 226 228 231 3 3 1.2% 1.3%


81 APPENDIX B



6314 Customer and information services supervisors 362 367 371 5 5 1.3% 1.2%

6315 Cleaning supervisors 180 182 184 2 2 1.2% 1.2%

6316 Other services supervisors 817 827 838 10 11 1.3% 1.3%

632 Chefs and cooks 11,483 11,619 11,768 136 149 1.2% 1.3%

6321 Chefs 3,135 3,172 3,213 37 41 1.2% 1.3%

6322 Cooks 8,244 8,341 8,447 97 107 1.2% 1.3%

633 Butchers and bakers 2,407 2,433 2,463 26 30 1.1% 1.2%

6331 Butchers, meat cutters and fishmongers - retail and wholesale 733 739 746 6 7 0.9% 1.0%

6332 Bakers 1,614 1,633 1,656 19 22 1.2% 1.4%

634 Specialized occupations in personal and customer services 4,872 4,918 4,970 46 52 0.9% 1.1%

6341 Hairstylists and barbers 3,836 3,869 3,906 33 37 0.9% 1.0%

6342 Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners 486 492 499 6 7 1.3% 1.5%

6343 Shoe repairers and shoemakers 37 38 38 0 0 1.2% 1.2%

6344 Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occupations 109 110 112 1 2 1.3% 1.4%

6345 Upholsterers 271 274 278 4 4 1.3% 1.4%

6346 Funeral directors and embalmers 99 100 101 1 1 0.9% 1.0%

64 Sales representatives and salespersons - wholesale and retail trade 37,807 38,151 38,532 345 381 0.9% 1.0%

641 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 6,277 6,339 6,408 62 69 1.0% 1.1%

6411 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (non-technical) 6,320 6,383 6,452 63 69 1.0% 1.1%

642 Retail salespersons 30,908 31,183 31,488 275 304 0.9% 1.0%

6421 Retail salespersons 30,956 31,232 31,536 275 305 0.9% 1.0%

65 Service representatives and other customer and personal services occupations 37,795 38,264 38,753 469 489 1.2% 1.3%

651 Occupations in food and beverage service 11,777 11,915 12,066 138 151 1.2% 1.3%

6511 Maîtres d'hôtel and hosts/hostesses 1,284 1,299 1,315 15 16 1.2% 1.3%

6512 Bartenders 1,966 1,989 2,015 23 25 1.2% 1.3%


82 APPENDIX B



6513 Food and beverage servers 8,481 8,580 8,689 99 109 1.2% 1.3%

652 Occupations in travel and accommodation 5,536 5,622 5,710 87 88 1.6% 1.6%

6521 Travel counsellors 1,063 1,076 1,090 13 13 1.2% 1.2%

6522 Pursers and flight attendants 1,782 1,815 1,847 33 32 1.8% 1.8%

6523 Airline ticket and service agents 1,578 1,606 1,634 28 28 1.8% 1.7%

6524 Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks 135 137 138 1 2 1.1% 1.1%

6525 Hotel front desk clerks 887 897 908 10 11 1.2% 1.2%

653 Tourism and amusement services occupations 1,325 1,342 1,360 17 18 1.3% 1.4%

6531 Tour and travel guides 55 56 56 1 1 1.2% 1.2%

6532 Outdoor sport and recreational guides 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

6533 Casino occupations 1,259 1,275 1,292 16 17 1.3% 1.4%

654 Security guards and related security service occupations 4,878 4,937 4,997 59 60 1.2% 1.2%

6541 Security guards and related security service occupations 4,862 4,921 4,981 59 60 1.2% 1.2%

655 Customer and information services representatives 10,172 10,301 10,429 130 128 1.3% 1.2%

6551 Customer services representatives - financial institutions 3,167 3,215 3,256 48 42 1.5% 1.3%

6552 Other customer and information services representatives 6,952 7,033 7,119 81 86 1.2% 1.2%

656 Other occupations in personal service 3,487 3,518 3,554 32 35 0.9% 1.0%

6561 Image, social and other personal consultants 130 131 132 1 1 1.0% 1.1%

6562 Estheticians, electrologists and related occupations 2,154 2,172 2,193 19 21 0.9% 1.0%

6563 Pet groomers and animal care workers 928 936 945 8 9 0.9% 1.0%

6564 Other personal service occupations 114 115 116 1 1 1.0% 1.1%

66 Sales support occupations 20,163 20,350 20,558 187 208 0.9% 1.0%

661 Cashiers 11,330 11,438 11,558 108 120 1.0% 1.1%

6611 Cashiers 11,364 11,473 11,593 109 121 1.0% 1.1%

662 Other sales support and related occupations 8,490 8,565 8,650 76 85 0.9% 1.0%

6621 Service station attendants 527 533 539 6 7 1.2% 1.2%


83 APPENDIX B



6622 Store shelf stockers, clerks and order fillers 6,650 6,708 6,773 58 65 0.9% 1.0%

6623 Other sales related occupations 999 1,008 1,018 9 10 0.9% 1.0%

67 Service support and other service occupations, n.e.c. 34,228 34,638 35,075 410 436 1.2% 1.3%



672 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and amusement services 1,357 1,375 1,394 18 19 1.3% 1.4%

6721 Support occupations in accommodation, travel and facilities set-up services 206 209 212 3 3 1.3% 1.4%

6722 Operators and attendants in amusement, recreation and sport 1,141 1,155 1,172 15 16 1.3% 1.4%

673 Cleaners 17,326 17,538 17,758 213 220 1.2% 1.3%

6731 Light duty cleaners 8,908 9,020 9,138 112 118 1.3% 1.3%

6732 Specialized cleaners 1,791 1,809 1,829 19 19 1.0% 1.1%

6733 Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents 6,157 6,233 6,311 77 78 1.2% 1.2%

674 Other service support and related occupations, n.e.c. 1,975 1,994 2,016 20 21 1.0% 1.1%

6741 Dry cleaning, laundry and related occupations 945 953 963 9 10 0.9% 1.0%

6742 Other service support occupations, n.e.c. 977 986 997 10 11 1.0% 1.1%

7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 115,427 116,224 117,214 797 990 0.7% 0.9%

72 Industrial, electrical and construction trades 50,715 50,907 51,219 192 312 0.4% 0.6%

720 Contractors and supervisors, industrial, electrical and construction trades and related workers 4,763 4,777 4,803 14 26 0.3% 0.5%

7201 Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations

565 568 572 3 4 0.5% 0.6%

7202 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations 696 700 705 4 5 0.6% 0.8%

7203 Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades 427 428 430 1 2 0.2% 0.5%


84 APPENDIX B



7204 Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades 742 744 747 1 3 0.1% 0.4%

7205 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers 1,974 1,977 1,985 2 8 0.1% 0.4%

723 Machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades 8,076 8,130 8,193 54 63 0.7% 0.8%

7231 Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors 1,160 1,169 1,178 9 9 0.8% 0.8%

7232 Tool and die makers 20 21 21 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

7233 Sheet metal workers 1,318 1,322 1,330 4 7 0.3% 0.6%

7234 Boilermakers 36 36 36 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

7235 Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters 210 211 213 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

7236 Ironworkers 644 645 647 1 3 0.2% 0.4%

7237 Welders and related machine operators 4,063 4,095 4,129 31 34 0.8% 0.8%

724 Electrical trades and electrical power line and telecommunications workers 10,555 10,599 10,668 44 69 0.4% 0.7%

7241 Electricians (except industrial and power system) 7,062 7,076 7,110 14 34 0.2% 0.5%

7242 Industrial electricians 839 844 850 5 6 0.6% 0.8%

7243 Power system electricians 70 72 74 2 2 2.6% 2.6%

7244 Electrical power line and cable workers 436 441 448 6 6 1.3% 1.5%

7245 Telecommunications line and cable workers 531 535 540 4 5 0.8% 0.9%

7246 Telecommunications installation and repair workers 1,067 1,075 1,084 8 9 0.7% 0.9%

7247 Cable television service and maintenance technicians 28 28 29 0 0 1.0% 1.1%

725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters 4,860 4,873 4,899 13 26 0.3% 0.5%

7251 Plumbers 3,599 3,604 3,620 5 16 0.1% 0.4%

7252 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 944 948 953 4 5 0.4% 0.6%

7253 Gas fitters 155 157 159 2 2 1.2% 1.3%

727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers 8,986 9,018 9,076 32 59 0.4% 0.6%

7271 Carpenters 7,750 7,767 7,806 17 39 0.2% 0.5%


85 APPENDIX B



7272 Cabinetmakers 1,225 1,239 1,259 15 19 1.2% 1.6%

728 Masonry and plastering trades 5,342 5,349 5,372 7 23 0.1% 0.4%

7281 Bricklayers 723 725 729 2 4 0.2% 0.5%

7282 Concrete finishers 758 759 762 1 3 0.2% 0.4%

7283 Tilesetters 747 748 752 1 3 0.1% 0.4%

7284 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers 3,082 3,085 3,098 3 12 0.1% 0.4%

729 Other construction trades 6,927 6,940 6,971 12 31 0.2% 0.5%

7291 Roofers and shinglers 1,771 1,773 1,780 2 7 0.1% 0.4%

7292 Glaziers 715 718 722 3 4 0.3% 0.6%

7293 Insulators 687 688 691 1 3 0.1% 0.4%

7294 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 2,486 2,489 2,500 4 11 0.1% 0.4%

7295 Floor covering installers 1,114 1,116 1,121 2 5 0.2% 0.4%

73 Maintenance and equipment operation trades 18,597 18,772 18,966 175 194 0.9% 1.0%

730 Contractors and supervisors, maintenance trades and heavy equipment and transport operators 2,972 2,993 3,019 21 26 0.7% 0.9%

7301 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades 558 564 571 6 7 1.1% 1.2%

7302 Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews 1,645 1,651 1,661 6 10 0.4% 0.6%

7303 Supervisors, printing and related occupations 119 121 124 2 3 2.0% 2.3%

7304 Supervisors, railway transport operations 111 112 113 1 1 1.1% 1.1%

7305 Supervisors, motor transport and other ground transit operators 281 284 287 3 3 1.0% 1.1%

731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) 6,391 6,445 6,505 54 61 0.8% 0.9%

7311 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1,653 1,669 1,686 16 17 1.0% 1.0%

7312 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 1,502 1,517 1,533 15 16 1.0% 1.0%

7313 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 1,086 1,089 1,095 3 6 0.3% 0.5%

7314 Railway carmen/women 238 241 244 3 3 1.1% 1.1%

7315 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors 844 855 867 11 12 1.3% 1.4%


86 APPENDIX B



7316 Machine fitters 51 52 52 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

7318 Elevator constructors and mechanics 457 457 459 1 2 0.1% 0.4%

732 Automotive service technicians 5,738 5,800 5,866 63 65 1.1% 1.1%

7321 Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers 4,578 4,628 4,680 50 52 1.1% 1.1%

7322 Motor vehicle body repairers 1,143 1,156 1,169 13 13 1.2% 1.2%

733 Other mechanics and related repairers 780 786 794 7 7 0.8% 0.9%

7331 Oil and solid fuel heating mechanics 128 129 129 0 1 0.1% 0.4%

7332 Appliance servicers and repairers 378 381 385 3 4 0.9% 1.0%

7333 Electrical mechanics 31 31 32 0 0 1.2% 1.2%

7334 Motorcycle, all-terrain vehicle and other related mechanics 109 110 111 1 1 1.1% 1.1%

7335 Other small engine and small equipment repairers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

736 Train crew operating occupations 522 528 533 6 6 1.1% 1.1%

7361 Railway and yard locomotive engineers 111 112 113 1 1 1.1% 1.1%

7362 Railway conductors and brakemen/women 405 410 414 4 4 1.1% 1.1%

737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters 365 365 367 0 1 0.1% 0.4%

7371 Crane operators 304 304 306 0 1 0.1% 0.4%

7372 Drillers and blasters - surface mining, quarrying and construction 27 27 27 0 0 0.1% 0.4%

7373 Water well drillers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

738 Printing press operators and other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 766 778 793 13 15 1.6% 1.9%

7381 Printing press operators 439 448 459 9 11 2.1% 2.5%

7384 Other trades and related occupations, n.e.c. 289 292 295 3 3 1.1% 1.1%

74 Other installers, repairers and servicers and material handlers 11,380 11,480 11,595 100 115 0.9% 1.0%

744 Other installers, repairers and servicers 3,386 3,408 3,437 22 29 0.6% 0.9%

7441 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 2,473 2,485 2,503 12 18 0.5% 0.7%

7442 Waterworks and gas maintenance workers 162 164 167 2 3 1.4% 1.6%

7444 Pest controllers and fumigators 59 59 60 1 1 1.3% 1.3%


87 APPENDIX B



7445 Other repairers and servicers 404 408 412 4 4 1.0% 1.0%

745 Longshore workers and material handlers 7,682 7,756 7,838 74 82 1.0% 1.1%

7451 Longshore workers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

7452 Material handlers 7,688 7,762 7,844 74 82 1.0% 1.1%

75 Transport and heavy equipment operation and related maintenance occupations 25,267 25,549 25,849 281 300 1.1% 1.2%

751 Motor vehicle and transit drivers 20,003 20,236 20,482 233 245 1.2% 1.2%

7511 Transport truck drivers 9,997 10,106 10,221 109 114 1.1% 1.1%

7512 Bus drivers, subway operators and other transit operators 3,579 3,626 3,675 47 48 1.3% 1.3%

7513 Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs 2,521 2,551 2,580 30 29 1.2% 1.2%

7514 Delivery and courier service drivers 3,306 3,345 3,390 39 44 1.2% 1.3%

752 Heavy equipment operators 2,945 2,964 2,989 19 25 0.7% 0.8%

7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,280 2,289 2,304 9 14 0.4% 0.6%

7522 Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers 527 535 543 8 8 1.5% 1.5%

753 Other transport equipment operators and related maintenance workers 1,821 1,845 1,869 24 25 1.3% 1.3%

7531 Railway yard and track maintenance workers 141 143 144 2 2 1.1% 1.1%

7532 Water transport deck and engine room crew 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

7533 Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

7534 Air transport ramp attendants 863 877 891 14 14 1.6% 1.6%

7535 Other automotive mechanical installers and servicers 781 789 797 8 8 1.0% 1.1%

76 Trades helpers, construction labourers and related occupations 8,206 8,240 8,293 34 53 0.4% 0.6%

761 Trades helpers and labourers 7,414 7,436 7,477 22 41 0.3% 0.6%

7611 Construction trades helpers and labourers 6,924 6,943 6,979 18 37 0.3% 0.5%

7612 Other trades helpers and labourers 360 362 365 2 3 0.7% 0.8%

762 Public works and other labourers, n.e.c. 763 774 785 11 12 1.4% 1.5%

7621 Public works and maintenance labourers 543 551 560 8 9 1.6% 1.7%

7622 Railway and motor transport labourers 153 155 157 2 2 1.2% 1.2%


88 APPENDIX B



8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 9,932 10,045 10,160 113 115 1.1% 1.1%

82 Supervisors and technical occupations in natural resources, agriculture and related production 3,910 3,952 3,994 42 42 1.1% 1.1%

821 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8211 Supervisors, logging and forestry 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

822 Contractors and supervisors, mining, oil and gas 1,356 1,370 1,384 14 14 1.0% 1.0%

8221 Supervisors, mining and quarrying 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8222 Contractors and supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services 1,332 1,346 1,360 14 14 1.0% 1.0%

823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related occupations 1,408 1,422 1,436 14 14 1.0% 1.0%

8231 Underground production and development miners 66 67 67 1 1 1.0% 1.0%

8232 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers 1,313 1,326 1,340 13 13 1.0% 1.0%

824 Logging machinery operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8241 Logging machinery operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

825 Contractors and supervisors, agriculture, horticulture and related operations and services 1,079 1,092 1,105 13 13 1.2% 1.2%

8252 Agricultural service contractors, farm supervisors and specialized livestock workers 218 221 224 3 3 1.4% 1.2%

8255 Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance and horticulture services 820 830 840 10 10 1.2% 1.2%

826 Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8261 Fishing masters and officers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8262 Fishermen/women 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

84 Workers in natural resources, agriculture and related production 1,078 1,090 1,102 12 12 1.2% 1.1%

841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling 473 478 483 5 5 1.0% 1.0%

8411 Underground mine service and support workers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8412 Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators 467 472 477 5 5 1.0% 1.0%


89 APPENDIX B



842 Logging and forestry workers 60 61 62 1 1 1.4% 1.3%

8421 Chain saw and skidder operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8422 Silviculture and forestry workers 46 46 47 1 1 1.4% 1.3%

843 Agriculture and horticulture workers 474 480 486 7 6 1.4% 1.2%

8431 General farm workers 405 411 416 6 5 1.4% 1.2%

8432 Nursery and greenhouse workers 63 63 64 1 1 1.3% 1.1%

844 Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occupations 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8441 Fishing vessel deckhands 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8442 Trappers and hunters 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

86 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 4,610 4,666 4,722 55 56 1.2% 1.2%

861 Harvesting, landscaping and natural resources labourers 4,609 4,664 4,720 55 56 1.2% 1.2%

8611 Harvesting labourers 23 23 23 0 0 1.4% 1.2%

8612 Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 3,819 3,866 3,914 47 48 1.2% 1.2%

8613 Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8614 Mine labourers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

8615 Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers 627 633 639 6 6 1.0% 1.0%

8616 Logging and forestry labourers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 16,752 16,989 17,259 236 270 1.4% 1.6%

92 Processing, manufacturing and utilities supervisors and central control operators 3,773 3,831 3,893 58 62 1.5% 1.6%

921 Supervisors, processing and manufacturing occupations 1,160 1,179 1,201 19 21 1.6% 1.8%

9211 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing 225 226 228 1 2 0.6% 0.7%

9212 Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 424 432 441 8 9 2.0% 2.0%

9213 Supervisors, food, beverage and associated products processing 256 261 268 6 7 2.2% 2.6%

9214 Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing 92 93 93 1 1 0.7% 0.7%


90 APPENDIX B



9215 Supervisors, forest products processing 138 141 145 3 4 2.2% 2.6%

9217 Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication 212 214 216 2 2 1.0% 1.1%

9221 Supervisors, motor vehicle assembling 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9222 Supervisors, electronics manufacturing 73 74 75 1 1 0.7% 0.8%

9223 Supervisors, electrical products manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9224 Supervisors, furniture and fixtures manufacturing 31 31 32 1 1 2.2% 2.6%

9226 Supervisors, other mechanical and metal products manufacturing 51 52 52 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

9227 Supervisors, other products manufacturing and assembly 15 15 16 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

923 Central control and process operators in processing and manufacturing 725 734 744 9 10 1.3% 1.3%

9231 Central control and process operators, mineral and metal processing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9232 Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators 714 723 733 9 10 1.3% 1.3%

9235 Pulping, papermaking and coating control operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

924 Utilities equipment operators and controllers 1,268 1,291 1,314 23 23 1.8% 1.8%

9241 Power engineers and power systems operators 854 868 882 14 14 1.6% 1.6%

9243 Water and waste treatment plant operators 353 361 370 9 9 2.4% 2.4%

94 Processing and manufacturing machine operators and related production workers 5,371 5,449 5,541 78 92 1.4% 1.7%

941 Machine operators and related workers in mineral and metal products processing and manufacturing

1,245 1,253 1,262 8 9 0.6% 0.7%

9411 Machine operators, mineral and metal processing 102 103 104 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9412 Foundry workers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9413 Glass forming and finishing machine operators and glass cutters 107 108 109 1 1 0.7% 0.7%


91 APPENDIX B



9414 Concrete, clay and stone forming operators 241 243 244 1 1 0.5% 0.6%

9415 Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing 24 25 25 0 0 1.2% 1.2%

9416 Metalworking and forging machine operators 334 336 338 2 2 0.6% 0.6%

9417 Machining tool operators 102 103 104 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9418 Other metal products machine operators 72 72 73 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing 500 503 507 4 4 0.7% 0.7%

9421 Chemical plant machine operators 72 72 73 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9422 Plastics processing machine operators 374 376 379 3 3 0.7% 0.7%

9423 Rubber processing machine operators and related workers 23 23 23 0 0 0.9% 1.0%

943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing and manufacturing

290 296 302 5 7 1.9% 2.2%

9431 Sawmill machine operators 56 57 58 1 1 1.5% 1.7%

9432 Pulp mill machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9433 Papermaking and finishing machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9434 Other wood processing machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9435 Paper converting machine operators 113 115 118 2 3 2.2% 2.6%

9436 Lumber graders and other wood processing inspectors and graders 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9437 Woodworking machine operators 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

944 Machine operators and related workers in textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

323 329 336 6 7 1.8% 2.1%

9441 Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9442 Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occupations 20 21 21 0 1 2.2% 2.6%

9445 Fabric, fur and leather cutters 54 55 56 1 1 1.5% 1.7%

9446 Industrial sewing machine operators 136 139 142 2 3 1.8% 2.1%

9447 Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%


92 APPENDIX B



946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and associated products processing 1,456 1,486 1,522 30 36 2.1% 2.5%

9461 Process control and machine operators, food, beverage and associated products processing 583 595 610 12 15 2.1% 2.5%

9462 Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers 736 751 770 15 19 2.1% 2.5%

9463 Fish and seafood plant workers 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9465 Testers and graders, food, beverage and associated products processing 92 94 97 2 2 2.2% 2.6%

947 Printing equipment operators and related occupations 1,130 1,151 1,176 21 25 1.8% 2.2%

9471 Plateless printing equipment operators 342 349 357 7 8 2.0% 2.4%

9472 Camera, platemaking and other prepress occupations 210 214 220 5 6 2.2% 2.6%

9473 Binding and finishing machine operators 287 293 300 6 8 2.2% 2.6%

9474 Photographic and film processors 115 116 117 1 1 0.9% 1.0%

95 Assemblers in manufacturing 3,567 3,608 3,656 41 48 1.2% 1.3%

952 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers 1,375 1,385 1,396 10 11 0.7% 0.8%

9521 Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9522 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers 73 73 74 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9523 Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers 446 449 453 4 4 0.8% 0.8%

9524 Assemblers and inspectors, electrical appliance, apparatus and equipment manufacturing 368 370 373 2 3 0.7% 0.7%

9525 Assemblers, fabricators and inspectors, industrial electrical motors and transformers 77 77 78 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9526 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors 79 79 80 1 1 0.7% 0.8%

9527 Machine operators and inspectors, electrical apparatus manufacturing 56 57 57 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

953 Other assembly and related occupations 2,110 2,140 2,176 30 35 1.4% 1.7%

9531 Boat assemblers and inspectors 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9532 Furniture and fixture assemblers and inspectors 496 506 517 9 11 1.9% 2.3%


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9533 Other wood products assemblers and inspectors 356 362 369 6 7 1.5% 1.9%

9534 Furniture finishers and refinishers 286 292 298 5 6 1.8% 2.1%

9535 Plastic products assemblers, finishers and inspectors 118 119 119 1 1 0.7% 0.7%

9536 Industrial painters, coaters and metal finishing process operators 264 266 268 2 2 0.7% 0.8%

9537 Other products assemblers, finishers and inspectors 303 307 312 4 5 1.3% 1.5%

96 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 3,306 3,357 3,416 51 59 1.5% 1.8%

961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 3,309 3,359 3,419 51 59 1.5% 1.8%

9611 Labourers in mineral and metal processing 155 156 158 1 1 0.8% 0.8%

9612 Labourers in metal fabrication 112 113 113 1 1 0.5% 0.6%

9613 Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities 126 129 132 3 3 2.4% 2.4%

9614 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing 67 68 70 1 2 2.2% 2.6%

9615 Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing 67 67 67 0 0 0.7% 0.7%

9616 Labourers in textile processing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9617 Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing 1,502 1,531 1,566 29 35 1.9% 2.3%

9618 Labourers in fish and seafood processing 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

9619 Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities 806 817 828 10 12 1.3% 1.4%


94 APPENDIX B

Calgary & Area - Alberta...Economic Growth: Change in Real GDP - Alberta vs Calgary Region Calgary...

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