Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure

Estimates for Scotland

Kenny Grant

Overview• GDP(E)

– Households– Non-Profit Institutions– General Government– Gross Capital Formation

• HHFCE contributes > 60% towards GDP(E)

• Consumer Trends– Current prices, Chained volume measure, Implied deflators– Unadjusted and adjusted for seasonality– Yearly– Quarterly– 12 COICOP categories + Net Tourism

Sources

• Expenditure & Food Survey

– Yearly publication from ONS– Scottish and UK expenditure– >280 individual recordings of expenditure– 3 year moving average– 2002/03 – 2004/05, 2007– FES 1998/99, 1999/00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

Year

Wee

kly

Ave

rag

e H

ou

seh

old

Exp

end

itu

re (

£)Food & non-alcoholicdrinks

Alcoholic drink,tobacco & narcotics

Clothing & footwear

Housing (net)1, fuel &power

Household goods &services

Health

Transport

Communication

Recreation & culture

Education

Restaurants & hotels

Miscellaneous goods& services

Sources

• Current Prices• Not Seasonally Adjusted• Quarterly Data• 12 COICOP + Net Tourism

Consumer Trends

Household Figures• Scottish Mid-Year Estimates/Projections

- GRO• UK Mid-Year Estimates/Projections

- Communities.gov.uk

Assumptions• Scottish % Hotels & Catering used to apportion UK Net

Tourism Expenditure for Scotland

• Difference in EFS and National Accounts breakdown from COICOP beyond top 12– Imputed Rental (4. Housing)– Life Insurance (12. Miscellaneous)

Methodology• EFS financial year series created from 1998/99 to 2007/08

– Scotland and UK– 12 COICOP level

• Scottish household proportions for each year for each COICOP=

Scottish average weekly expenditure X

# Scottish Households

• Divided by UK equivalent

• = Scottish % of UK HHFCE

Methodology• Convert financial year Scottish Proportions to a quarterly series

– Cubic Splines

• UK National Accounts data X

Scottish % of UK expenditure =

Quarterly Scottish HHFCE– (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

• Seasonally adjusted series– X-12-ARIMA– Comparable series to UK national Accounts– All series showed signs of seasonality and were adjusted (except

Education)

Clothing & Footwear

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Expenditure

SA

Restaurants & Hotels

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Expenditure

SA

Transport

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Expenditure

SA

Education

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Expenditure

Results• Series of 6 tables

– Scottish HHFCE– UK HHFCE– Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE– Scottish HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)– UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)– Scottish Proportions of UK HHFCE (Seasonally Adjusted)

– Calendar year– Financial year– Quarterly

Future Work• Updates

– Quarterly National Accounts (Consumer Trends)– EFS– Household Estimates/Projections

• COICOP Breakdown– Individual goods and services– Imputed Rentals / Life Insurance

• Net Tourism

Calculation of Quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure

Estimates for Scotland

Kenny Grant