How do the environmental impacts of a growing population of a developed country, the United States, compares to the undeveloped country of India?By: Leonardo Caion-Demaestri Zo FreedbergTaken from: http://www.claybennett.com/pages/divide.html

[Intro]duction

Our world population is rapidly growing. Today: Over 6 billion people and on the rise Today: Increased immigration / lack of migration (urbanization) Lack of education and contraceptive use Medical advancements Leads to environmental and social impacts. Deforestation Global Warming Natural disasters, sea level rising Lack of natural resources Lack of freshwater Pollution Diseases India and United States may differ in demographics, etc. but the growing populations both result in similar environmental impacts.

[H]ypothesis

We predict that a growing population will cause: Higher rate of deforestation Greater loss of freshwater resources More pollution Increased global warming Strains of natural resources Social issues The differing nations will compare in that the trends will be the same, rates will differ.

[M]ethods

We first searched to find what causes a growing population. We then looked to see the effects of the growing population on the environment. Stella and Excel were used to display the impacts of the population growth on:

Forest Area Fresh Water Availability

We also compared the two different growing populations.

What are we [model]ing?India Population growth. United States Growth. Effects on Environmental Resources: Fresh Water Availability Forest Areas Effects of varying levels of these subcategories.

Why a [grow]ing population?

United States

India

Increased Immigration Rates Better health care Higher living standards Abortion Laws Unintended Pregnancies ~ 40% births Teenage Pregnancies

Lack of Migration Lack of Education Desire for Male children Fertility rate declining Younger women having children

Taken from: http://www.tashian.com/carl/archives/us-1896.gif

Taken from: http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/asia/india/images/india-flag.jpg

[Water] and [Forest] Factor

Freshwater Availability

Forests Area

Misconception of Oceans as freshwater Human Bodies 60% water Sewage deposited in water Health problems Per Capita Water Use

Urbanization more paved areas Less parks and nature Lack of Oxygen production Increase Quantity of Carbon Dioxide (Greenhouse Gases) Global Warming

Taken from: http://static.flickr.com/33/38490644_41f946c4f2_b.jpg

Taken from: http://pantransit.reptiles.org/images/1996-07-28/washington-rain-forest.png

[Environ]mental Impacts

Pollution

increase in cars and emission of greenhouse increase in paved areas to house increase in waste

gases into atmosphere

Deforestationincreasing population

Freshwater Availabilityproduction and contamination of water

Natural Resourcesexcessive use of coal

increase burning of fossil fuels,

Global Warmingchances of natural disasters

overall increase in temperature and

Habitat Losslevels

change in ecosystems affecting trophic

[Stella] Models

Stocks population, freshwater availability and forest areas. Flows births and deaths; precipitation and water use; and forest regeneration and trees cut down. Converters birth rate and death rate; deforestation rate; and per capita water use.

[Stella] ModelsIndia pop 3Us pop 3

india birth 3

india death 3

US birth 3

us death 3

us br 3

us dr 3

india br 3

india dr 3 ? India f reshwater av ailable 2Us f reshwater av ailable 2 US Per Capita Water Use

India Per capita water use?

india precipitation 2

india water used 2

us precipitation 2

us water used 2

India Population vs. Environ ImpactsIndia pop 2

United States Population vs. Environ ImpactsUS pop 2

india birth 2

india death 2

US birth 2

US death 2

india birth rate 2 india dr 2

us birth rate 2 us death rate 2

India f orest area 2

US f orest area 2

US f orest regeneraton

India f orest regeneration

India trees cut down 2

US trees cut down 2

India Def orestation rate 2

US def orestation rate 2

[Stella] Model1: INDIA population 1: 5000 1: 1: USA population 550000000 1 1 1: 3000 1: 400000000 1

1 1

1

1 1 1: Page 1 1000 1950.00 1975.00 2000.00 Y ears India Population 2025.00 2050.00 12:27 PM Sat, Dec 02, 2006 1: Page 1 250000000

1950.00

1975.00

2000.00 Y ears US Population

2025.00 2050.00 12:28 PM Sat, Dec 02, 2006

India Population (In billions)

US Population (In millions)

Population of India and US with no external pressures

India is increasing at a faster rate than U.S. U.S. This is worrisome due to the lack of resources and financial stability to support such an increase. We only chose to model birth and death rate, but there are other limiting factors that encompass each, however they were not imperative to include in this research.

[Excel] ModelComparing the Population of India and US with no external pressures US Population vs. India Population1800000000 1600000000 1400000000 1200000000 Peopl e 1000000000 800000000 600000000 400000000 200000000 0 India Population US Population

Both increasing. India growth rate per year: 1.51% US growth rate per year: 0.92% India starts at a greater population. WHY DO THEY DIFFER? Education GNP Immigration/ Migration

Ye ar 20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23Time

[Excel] ModelUS FreshWater1E+13 0 2005 2014 2017 2011 2002 2008 2020 2023 Year -1E+13 -2E+13 m^3 -3E+13 -4E+13 -5E+13 US FreshWater (m^3)

India FreshWater5E+12 0 Year 2014 2005 2011 2017 2020 2002 -5E+12 -1E+13 -1.5E+13 m^3 -2E+13 -2.5E+13 -3E+13 -3.5E+13 India FreshWater (m^3) 2008 2023

-6E+13 -7E+13 Year

-4E+13 -4.5E+13 Year

Population growth influencing water availability. availability.

Water availability decreases because there is not enough fresh water available due to the increasing demand. US per capita: 6932 m^3 capita: India per capita: 1211 m^3 capita: US consumes more water at a faster rate due to its higher surface area and easier access to clean water, whereas India does not. USs USs financial status permits usage of high-end technology to purify highwater.

[Excel] ModelComparing Population growth of India and United States influencing water availability. availability.

US Fresh Water vs. India Fresh Water1E+13 0 2014 2005 2011 2017 2020 2002 -1E+13 -2E+13 2008 2023 Year

US FreshWater (m^3) India FreshWater (m^3)

WHY DO THEY DIFFER? Pollution rates Technology Surface Area Financial Stability Per Capita Water Use

m^3

-3E+13 -4E+13 -5E+13 -6E+13 -7E+13 Year

[Excel] ModelIndia Population vs. Forest Area1800000000 1600000000 1400000000 1200000000 1000000000 800000000 600000000 400000000 200000000 0 India Forest Area (hectares) 200000000 150000000 100000000 50000000 0 US Forest Area (hectares) India Population 400000000 350000000 300000000 250000000 US Population

US Population vs. Forest Area

Years

Population growth influencing forest area

India The forest area started at ~67 million hectares, and continued at a steady deforestation rate of 0.0294 million. United States There is a clear exponential decrease in the forest area, leading to its possible crash, which can result in major ecosystem changes if actions not taken.

Ye ar 20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23Years

Ye ar 20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23

[Excel] ModelComparing population growth of India and United States influencing forest areaUS Forest Area vs. India Forest Area350000000 300000000 250000000 Hectares 200000000 150000000 100000000 50000000 0 India Forest Area (hectares) US Forest Area (hectares)

India, India, although with a higher population than the United States shows a steady decrease in its forest area, whereas the United States has an extensive decrease due to its high immigration rates and urbanization, demanding more paved areas than India. Growing population puts pressure on forest areas because of urbanization and higher demands for wooden products.

Ye ar 20 02 20 05 20 08 20 11 20 14 20 17 20 20 20 23Year

[General] Conclusions

Our models show that there are negative environmental impact related to population growth both in developed and underdeveloped countries. For every scenario, there were increases in deforestation rate and water usage Although the reasons for the growth differed, the results were similar

Taken From: http://www.greenberg-art.com/.Toons/.Toons,%20Environ/qqxsgOverpopulation%20eclipse.gif

[Impli]cations

What Ifs If we increase the number of people educated, then the birth rate would go down, resulting in a lower deforestation rate. rate. Decreasing the forest area will prevent natural processes from occurring (photosynthesis, nitrogen cycle) and increase global warming, natural disasters, damage to ecosystems, loss of animal life. Decreasing water resources may in fact bring down the population due to decreasing food sources.

[Sol]utions

Increase education programs Later marriages Contraceptive use Less of a need for urbanization (jobs) Be energy efficient (wind/ solar) Organic farming Sustainable development (build vertically) Plant more trees! Have better governmental regulations for an improved economy

Take Home Message

Because this is an inevitable problem we must raise peoples awareness and environmental stewardship to lessen the effects of overpopulation. Focus on the present, but have in mind the future, thus we must start changing our actions now to foresee the future we want!

Works Cited

Atlas. Population and Natural Resources Freshwater. 2006. http://atlas.aaas.org/pdf/51-54.pdf>. . (27 November 2006) Butler C. 1994. Overpopulation, overconsumption, and economics. Lancet, 343: 582- 584. 582Butler, Rhett A. World Deforestation Rates. 2005. http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1115-forests.html http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1115CIA. World Factbook. India. 2006. https://cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html> (27 November, 2006) CIA. World Factbook. United States. 2006. (27 November, 2006) https://cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html> Climate Averages. 2006. http://www.eurometeo.com/english/climate/city_VIDP/id_GP/meteo_new%20delhi%20india> Economist Intelligence Unit, 2006. Resources and infrastructure: Education. Economist Intelligence Unit, 2006. Resources and infrastructure: Energy provision. Economist Intelligence Unit, 2006. Resources and infrastructure: Natural resources and the environment. Economist Intelligence Unit, 2006. Resources and infrastructure: Population. Ehrlich, Paul and Anne Ehrlich. THE POPULATION EXPLOSION; Simon and Schuster, 1990. p.p. 37-40 37Flavin, Christopher. 2001. Rich Planet, Poor Planet. Pages 4- 20 in State of the World. World Watch Institute. 4Gifford, P.W. Overpopulation in developed societies. Clinics in Endocrinology and Metabolism, 2: 561- 576. 561Greep, R.O. 1998. Whither the global population problem. Biochemical Pharacology, 55: 383- 386. 383Hydrologic Cycle. 2005. Jasanoff, Sheila. India at the crossroads in global environmental policy. 1993. Global Environmental Change, 3: 32- 52. 32Laurence, W.F. 1999. Reflections on the tropical deforestation crisis. Biological Conservation, 91: 109- 117. 109Schneider, S.H. 1991. Why global warming should concern us. Global Environmental Change, 1: 268- 271. 268Sharma, Sudhirendar, 2003. Water Resources. Infochange News & Features. http://www.infochangeindia.org/WaterResourceIbp.jsp> Sharma, Suresh and Gulait, S.C. 1997. Population Pressure and Deforestation in India. Population Research Centre of Institute of Economic Growth, University Enclave, Delhi- 7. 1-25. Delhi1Smith, W. Brad, Patric D. Miles, John S. Vissage and Scott A. Pugh. 2004. Forest Resources of the United States. North Central Research Station. Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture, Minnesota.