Cabinet Office Final
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Transcript of Cabinet Office Final
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Analysis prepared for The Cabinet Office
The Post-Recession Consumer/Citizen
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Presentation structure
The recession and the response
How people are feeling
Have their values changed?
What do people worry about?
People and institutions
Source: Base:
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THE RECESSION AND THERESPONSE
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In previous downturns, it was
over by now
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak
(0% = pre recession peak)
Great depression
80s recession
90s recession
Current downturn
Source: Office of National Statistics
The sheer length of the downturn is unlike anything consumers have experiencedbefore (even the Great Depression was over by this point in the 1930s), and will have
far more than a temporary affect on attitudes and behaviour
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Not all consumers have been affectedin the same way
Low income Belowmiddle
income
Middleincome
Abovemiddle
income+
High income
Unemployment
Inflation
Public Spending
Low interest rates
Changes in income
Consumer confidence
Wealth buffers the effects of the economy in some circumstances
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Not all consumers have been affectedin the same way
Younger Families EmptyNesters
Poorer older Wealthierolder
Unemployment
Inflation
Public Spending
Low interest rates
Changes in income
Consumer confidence
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And they have responded
differently tooDoing fine
Hunkering
down
Worried well
Wising up
Fightingback
Perfect storm
Most affected byrecession
Least affected
Moreaffluent
Lessaffluent
Longer
term
societal
change in
attitudes/
values
Short term
adaptation to
circumstances
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Consumer experience of the downturn hasbeen determined by three independent
factors
Financial habits
Incomehigh
low
Life eventspositivenegative
High income, badfinancial habits,
negative life events =struggling
Low income, goodfinancial habits,
stable life events =doing fine
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Understanding the post-recession consumer
Commissioned by the Harvard Business Review to identify andevaluate the trends driving the post-recession consumer mind-set.
First published in 2009, reprinted in Spring 2010
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HOW ARE PEOPLE FEELING?
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Levels of happiness have dropped a great
deal during the recession in the UK, but theyre
still higher than some other countries, even
Germany
38%
20% 20%
35%
25%
15%
21%
33%
18% 19%
51%
36%
19%14%
22%
18%
12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
UK France Germany Spain
% who are very happy
1981-1984 1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 28,829
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Peoples life satisfaction has alsodropped in the UK since the
recession
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80
1981-1984 1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
Levels of satisfaction with life overall (1-10 scale where 1=not
at all satisfied and 10=completely satisfied)
UK France Germany Spain
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 28,829
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People feel like they have lesschoice and control over their lives
since the recession
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
1981-1984 1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
Feeling of freedom of choice and control (1-10 scale where
1=none at all and 10=a great deal)
UK France Germany Spain
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 28,829
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HAVE PEOPLES VALUESCHANGED?
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Since the recession, Brits think it is more
acceptable avoid transport fares and cheat
on taxes but less acceptable to commit
benefit fraud
.00
.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1981-1984 1989-1993 2005-2007 2011-2012
How justifiable is the following? (1-10 scale where 1=never
justifiable and 10=always justifiable)
Claiming state benefits which you're not entitled to
Avoiding a fare on public transport
Cheating on tax if you have the chance
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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Attitudes towards welfare are
much harder than they were
during the 90s recessionOnly 28% of those asked wanted to see more spending on
welfare - down from 35% at the beginning of the recession in
2008, and from 58% in 1991
Public attitude to welfare state 'toughens' despite recession
If you look back at the previous recession, you find that
people became more sympathetic . . . that hasnt happened
this time
Alison Park, NAtCen
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But people have not just
become less caringthe
context is very different this time
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1983 1987 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
% who agree that 'government
should spend more on welfarebenefits even if it leads to higher
taxes'
% who agree that
unemployment benefits are too
low and cause hardship
% who agree that
unemployment benefits are toohigh and cause dependency
Source: British Social Attitudes
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Since the recession people have becomeless tolerant of immigrants, heavy drinkers
and people with criminal records
41%
12%16% 15%
59%
9% 8%
21%
65%62%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
People who have
AIDS
Homosexuals Immigrants / foreign
workers
Heavy drinkers People with a
criminal record
% who would not like the following as neighbours
1981-1984 1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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Whilst other countries in Europe havecontinued to be more accepting of
immigrants since the recession, the UK has
become less
30%
35%
40%
45%50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
% who agreed that when jobs are scarce, employers should
give priority to nationals over immigrants
UK France Germany Spain
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 28,829
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Little BritainPeople in the UK are very focussed on domestic issues and are
more likely than others in Europe to think ethnic diversity is
damaging
6.75
7.59
6.84
7.07
6.87
7.09
6.43
7.58
.40 1.40 2.40 3.40 4.40 5.40 6.40 7.40 8.40
Does ethnic diversity erode a country's unity
(1) or enrich life (10)?
Should your country's leaders give top
priority to help reducing poverty in the world
(1), or should they give top priority to solve
your own country's problems (10)?
UK France Germany Spain
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12Base: 14,195
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WHAT ARE PEOPLE WORRIEDABOUT?
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whilst half feel under time
pressure in their daily lives
52%
67%
57%
44%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
UK France Germany Spain
% who often feel under time pressure in their day to day life
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12Base: 14,195
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People are most concerned with fighting rising
prices, whilst other issues, like protecting
freedom of speech have become less
important
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1981-1984 1989-1993 1994-1997 2005-2007 2011-2012
% responding that the following is most important to them
(prompted)
Maintaining order in the nation Give people more say
Fighting rising prices Protecting freedom of speech
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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Unlike elsewhere in Europe,corruption is seen as less of a
problem in the UK than terrorism
6.89
7.71
6.92
9.07
7.13 7.37
6.62
7.86
.00
1.00
2.00
3.004.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
UK France Germany Spain
How big a problem is the following in your country? (1-10 scale
where 1=not a problem at all and 10=a very big problem)
Corruption Terrorism
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS
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Peoples demands from the
public sector are changing Demographic change
Aging population
Large numbers of young families More complex identities
Fragmentation of demand
Rising expectations Technology
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People are scrutinising institutionsmore than ever
confidence in the armed forces has risen since the recession, butit has fallen in police, major companies and parliament
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981-1984 1989-1993 2005-2007 2011-2012
% who have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in
Armed forces
The police
Parliament
Major companies
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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Confidence has also fallen in thegovernment, political parties and the EU,
but has slightly increased in the UN
34%
18%
26%
44%
30%
14%
22%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
The government Political parties EU UN
% who have a great deal of confidence in
2005-2007 2011-2012
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12; World Values Survey 1981-2007Base: 8,745 UK respondents
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The majority of Brits want info on stayinghealthy and dont mind if the government
encourages them to consume more
healthily
41%
68%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
People should be free to eat and drink
whatever they like even if it damages their
health
Individuals should be encouraged to eat
and drink more healthily through public
health campaigns
I like to hear the latest information about
how to stay healthy
% agreeing with the following statements
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-12Base: 4,036 UK respondents
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Thank you: Any questions?
Please contact:NAME (email address)
www.trajectorypartnership.com
T:+44 (0)20 7902 1171
http://www.trajectorypartnership.com/http://www.trajectorypartnership.com/