C HIN A GRO CHINA : Meat Demand Diseases and the Vulnerability of Livestock Systems.
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Transcript of C HIN A GRO CHINA : Meat Demand Diseases and the Vulnerability of Livestock Systems.
CHINAGRO
Livestock - BackgroundLivestock - Background• China has largest livestock industry in the world;• Livestock productivity has been below world averages, but
great improvements in many parameters;• Demand for livestock products shows strong increases
with income growth and urbanization level;• What changes in livestock structure will result in response
to changing demand levels and consumer preferences?• Can China feed its animals over the next 30 years or will
massive imports be required?• To what extent can forthcoming livestock management
practices and other efficiency enhancing technologies expand livestock production?
• Will China’s livestock sector be competitive on the world market?
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China : Meat Demand
Driven by a surging demand for animal products, livestock production is rapidly expanding
Total meat consumption (Mt)
Growth of livestock production concentrates primarily on– periurban regions (close to market, good
infrastructure)
– pig and poultry production
– large specialised farms (often with little land)
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Demographic Change and UrbanizationDemographic Change and Urbanization
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% Rural
Rural Population
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Urban and Rural Urban and Rural Demand for PorkDemand for Pork..
Urban and Rural Urban and Rural Demand for PoultryDemand for Poultry..
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kg per capita
Pigs
Poultry
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
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kg per capita
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urban
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Poultry
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Table 4. Share of output by type of production system, 1996.
1997 Pigs Poultry
Region Traditional Specialized Industrial Traditional Specialized Industrial
North 79.2 11.8 9.0 63.4 27.1 9.5 Northeast 70.4 20.0 9.7 61.8 36.1 2.1
East 73.6 16.2 10.2 49.3 27.3 23.4 Central 82.3 8.1 9.6 58.5 30.9 10.6 South 76.6 12.6 10.7 47.7 35.5 16.8
Southwest 89.0 9.7 1.3 56.6 38.6 4.8 Plateau 92.5 2.2 5.2 92.2 7.8 0.0
Northwest 86.0 7.3 6.7 68.8 22.5 8.7 China 80.9 11.6 7.6 56.6 31.6 11.7
Source: Own calculations based on data from 1996 Agricultural Census and CCAP.
Table 8. Pigs stocks and pork production, by system and economic region, 1997.
Meat by production system Pigs Pork
Industrial Special-
ized Tradit-ional
Product-ivity
10000 1000 t 1000 t 1000 t 1000 t kg/head North 5675 4864 438 572 3854 85.7 Northeast 2255 1916 185 382 1348 85.0 East 3666 3409 349 551 2510 93.0 Central 6010 5192 496 423 4273 86.4 South 4267 3907 419 493 2995 91.6 Southwest 10729 6564 88 635 5841 61.2 Plateau 116 63 3 1 58 54.0 Northwest 2110 1448 97 106 1246 68.6 China 34827 27363 2076 3163 22125 78.6
Source: Own estimates based on data of 1996 Agricultural Census and CCAP (2002).
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Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised
farmsConsequences for regional economics and the social situation
Cheap supply of animal protein Great improvements in human diets
Small producers become supplanted and marginalised Income disparities grow Some employment is generated
in industrial production More employment is generated
in the value-added food chain
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Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised farms
Ecological consequences
Land and water pollution in areas of high animal concentration (manure discharge, bad management, excessive application, nutrient balance surplus)
– Eutrophication of surface water– Eutrophication of marine ecosystems– Ground water pollution (nitrate, pathogens etc.)– Nutrient and heavy metal accumulation in soil
Nutrient depletion in feed-producing areas High expenditures of non-renewable resources erosion of animal bio-diversity
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Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised
farmsHuman and animal health consequences spreading of animal diseases Disease threats for humans
– Zoonosis
– Spreading of pathogens through polluted water or air
– food contamination (pathogens; heavy metals; antibiotics and pharmaceuticals etc.)
Odour, fly and noise problems, if livestock operation is near or in settlement area
• Vulnerability Module
Location;Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics;
Transmission Mechanisms
VulnerabilityModel
Livestock Losses; Economic Losses;
Humans Health Losses
Location;Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics;
Transmission Mechanisms
Livestock Epidemics
Model
Livestock; Intensification;
Feed/Water Availability,Agricultural Population,Markets/Transportation
• Epidemics Module
• Multi-agent Economic Accounting System Model (MAEM)
Losses;Feasible Ex-ante
And Ex-post Policiesand Associated Costs
MAEM
Losses and Gainsof Agents;
Population Incomes and Consumption;
Livestock Demand
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Animal disease risk in China
Assessing the risk of animal disease in China in relation to pig & poultry production structure.
Identifying future avenue for preventing disease emergence through adjusting animal production environment
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Context (I): densities
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Log (chickens density)
Lo
g (
pig
s d
en
sity
)
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5
Log (chickens density)
Lo
g (
pig
s d
en
sity
)
Netherland
Belgium-Luxembourg
Republic of Korea
Denmark
Viet Nam
Cyprus
Philippines
Hungary
China
Source: FAOSTAT 2001
450 millions pigs - 3.77 billions chickens – 1.29 billions people
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Intensification risk factors (I)
Factors increasing disease risk
Endemic diseases causing little impact in extensive systems causes significant productivity losses under intensified systems (e.g. enteric and respiratory diseases in cattle & pigs because of viral and bact. Infection, helminthosis and many poultry diseases)
Congregation of highly susceptible animals creates conditions for rapid amplification (e.g. CSF in Europe, FMD in the Philippines)
Stress induced disease & multifactorial disease complex
Higher selective pressure, thus higher risk of new serotypes
Difficulty in maintaining high levels of hygiene, especially if water deficit
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Intensification risk factors (II)
Factors decreasing disease risk
Possibility to avoid mixing of age group to avoid vertical spread
Using specific pathogen-free pigs (SPF) free of enteric and respiratory diseases and internal & external parasites
Animal health management (vaccine & treatments)
Animals confinement thus higher control on contacts rates (e.g. windborne diseases: FMD, Enzootic Pneumonia, Pseudorabies, Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndromes (PRRS), Porcine Respiratory coronavirus, & vector-borne diseases, contact with flies & rodents) & biosecurity.
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Disease type vs. production systems
Source: Cameron 2000
Endemic diseases: continuously propagated from older animals, then lateral transfer. Affect mainly extensive systems. Examples: Porcine Pleuropenumoniae, Colibacillosis, Round worm infection, Reproductive and respiratory syndrome…
Epizootic diseases: sudden outbreak due to introduction of a new disease in an area, introduction of a disease in a herd where immunity is low or suppressed, or evolution of a new strain. Affect mainly intensive production systems.
Example: Porcine respiratory coronavirus, Classical Swine fever, FMD…
Stress-induced diseases: endemic disease having a sudden proliferation due to decline in animals immunity caused by stress.
Examples: Epidemic Diarrhoea, Glasser disease…