The Growth of the Lithium-ion Battery Market

Jonathan Lee, Byron Capital Markets

December 2011

Graphite Demand Distribution

December 2011

30%

14%

7% 14%

14%

21%

Refractories

Expanded Graphite &Carbon Products

Crucibles and Lubricants

Gaskets and Packing

Pencils

Other Iron and Steel

Source: Roskill (2009)

Two-Dimensional Growth

Nickel-metal hydride battery was the pre-cursor

Uses a metal hydride as anode (typically rare earth – lanthanum)

Or Cadmium in nickel-cadmium batteries

Graphite used as the anode in the lithium-ion market

Growth in graphite with switch to lithium-ion market from NiMH

We previously looked at the growth of batteries and electric vehicles

Growth area for graphite - synthetic and natural

December 2011

More than Lithium

According to Argonne National Laboratory Study (2009)

Estimated Graphite:Lithium (kg/kg) ratio

NCA (lithium nickel/cobalt/aluminum): 8

LFP (lithium iron phosphate): 13

LMO (lithium manganese oxide): 15

In LTO (lithium-titanate); anode:lithium (kg/kg) ratio: 8

No graphite used in this type of Li-ion battery

December 2011

Future Graphite Demand

December 2011

(1,000,000)

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Surplus/Deficit

Total Graphite Demand

Total New GraphiteDemand

Possible Substitutions for graphite

Synthetic Graphite

Li4Ti5O12 – Lithium titanate

Tin based anodes: Cu6Sn5 (Copper-Tin), FeSn5 (Iron-Tin), Carbon-Tin

Al-based anodes

Silicon based anodes

December 2011

Anode Types and Capacity

December 2011

Metal Li Si Al Sn Al Graphite

Lithiated Compound Li Li22Si5 Al4Li9 Li22Sn5 AlLi LiC6

Theoretical Capacity (mAh/g) >3,800 >3,000 2,234 994 993 372

Volume Change (%) Dendritic

Growth 323 - 300 97 9

Source: Kamali and Fray

Anode Costs

Just for the raw material costs:

Lithium Titanate - $23k/tonne

Copper-Tin: $16k/tonne

Iron-Tin: $19k/tonne

Co3O4-Al: $23k/tonne

Does not include costs for producing anode

Titanium and Tin expensive metals – Key drivers in costs

Natural graphite anodes – we estimate $10k/tonne cost

December 2011

Synthetic Graphite

Low capacity – theoretical capacity of 372 mAh/g

Good power

Less energy density

Better control of properties during manufacturing

Expensive – Petroleum coke graphitised at 2,800 C

December 2011

Lithium Titanate

Long cycle life

High rate capability

Capacity of only 175 mAh/g

Lower voltage and energy density (See right)

Faster charging time – 10 minutes compared

to 8 hours

Recharge rates of 98%

December 2011

Source: Jim McDowall

Tin Based Anodes

High capacity (990mAh/g)

Constructed under heat and argon atmosphere for 12 hours – Makes even more expensive

Limited cycle life - Deconstruction of CuSn after lithiation. Volumetric changes as well

Found that volume change could be reduced by using nano-sized tin particles (Kamali and

Fray, 2010)

Graphite-tin were more complicated to produce using carbon nanotubes or tin-filled carbon

nanofibres

May have difficulties in commercial applications

Would still use graphite in production anyhow

December 2011

Aluminum based anodes

Co3O4-Al

High theoretical capacity (over 900mAh/g)

However, low capacity retention due to

volume change

Work performed at University of

Electronic Science and Technology of

China (2011)

Changed particle sizes to increase

capacity retention

Range of only 60-70%

Retention after first charge – Very Low

December 2011

Source: Lei, Ma, Sun

Silicon Based anodes

Much higher capacity (3,000 mAh/g vs. 350 mAh/g)

Silicon is a crystalline structure – inflexible

Expansion occurs when absorbing lithium – causes stress on crystalline structure

PNNL recently had success with Si-based electrodes

Porous Si was used to allow expansion, still a crystalline structure

Carbon coated and KB carbon added

Over 3,000 mAh/g in initial capacity

1,600 mAh/g after 30 cycles – Most losses during

December 2011

Conclusion

Natural Graphite demand will continue to grow two fold:

Conversion to lithium-ion batteries from NiMH

Growth sector of lithium-ion batteries in vehicles

Alternative anode materials far more expensive and less developed

Especially for automotive, very long lead time to get materials and parts approved before

into mass production

Titanium, cobalt, and tin make other anodes expensive

Volumetric changes in batteries make other anodes unworkable, to date

Early stage in Silicon based anodes

Synthetic graphite has a tremendous energy input with graphite having a high melting

point

Growth of EV’s will coincide with rising energy prices

December 2011