By Virginia Cram-Martos Director · 2008. 10. 14. · UNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission...
Transcript of By Virginia Cram-Martos Director · 2008. 10. 14. · UNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission...
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The Market Dynamics of Wood Energy in Europe
Wood as an alternative energy source
By Virginia Cram-Martos
Director
UNECE Trade and Timber Division
Reading University
February 2007
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Structure of the Presentation:
UNECE - a short introduction
• Wood energy – why are we talking about?
• Wood and the energy market
• Where does wood come from – where does it go to?
• State of the forests within the UNECE region
• Why is wood good ? (socio-economic and political reasons)
• Assessing the wood energy market and its development
• What drives the market?
• Recent trends and future developments in wood energy
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE):
•Is one of the five United Nations regional commissions
•Has 56 member States
•Provides a forum for developing tools for economic cooperation
•Offers a regional framework for the elaboration and harmonization of conventions, norms and standards
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The UNECE’s Programmes:
• Economic Cooperation and Integration• Environmental Policy • Housing and Land Management• Statistics• Sustainable Energy• Timber and Forestry• Trade• Transport
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The Trade Programme:
Develops and maintains
international norms, standards and recommendations
that help countries and enterprises
increase their competitiveness
by reducing technical barriers to trade.
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The Work Focuses on:
• Trade Facilitation
• Electronic Business
• Regulatory Cooperation
• Standardization Policy
• Agricultural Quality Standards
• Technical Barriers to Trade
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The UNECE’s Programmes:
• Economic Cooperation and Integration• Environmental Policy • Housing and Land Management• Statistics• Sustainable Energy• Timber and Forestry• Trade• Transport
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNECE/FAO Timber Section – a joint office
Develops information and recommendations on:
• Markets and Statistics
• Forest resource assessment and indicators of sustainable forest management in the region
• Sector outlook studies: analysis and follow-up
• Social and cultural aspects of forestry
• Policy and cross-sectoral issues
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE):
Provides technical assistance to the countries in the region with transition and-or less developed economies.
This assistance takes the form of advisory services, training seminars and workshops where participants can share their experiences and receive support from other countries in the region.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood Energy, why are we talking about it?
Because forests are…
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
…“nice” Energy stocks…
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
…good for the climate…
1 average European tree consumes 6 kg CO2/day one person produces 1 kg CO2/day
C6H12O6 + 6 O2 + 6 H2O 6 CO2 + 12 H2O
1 ton wood + 1,392 tons O2 + 0, 541 tons H2O
1,851 tons CO2 + 1.082 tons H2O
Combustion
Photosynthesis
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
…and if something goes wrong, the negative effect is very limited in time and space.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood energy - the global political framework
•Energy supply security (diversification / price)
• Climate protection (Kyoto protocol commitments, Johannesburg Implementation plan, International conference on renewable energies (Bonn) etc.)
• Sustainable energy supply (strengthen local structures)
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
• EC Forestry action plan (2006)
• EC Strategy and action plan on renewable energy sources(2005)
• EU Directive 2001/77/EC(electricity from renewable sources)
• Ministerial Conference on Environment in Europe
• EC Directive 1999/31/EC(2010: -65% landfill of biodegradable waste)
Wood energy – the European legal framework (waste, energy, environment):
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Different stakeholder - one topic:
• Same interest?
• Different objective ?
• Detailed specific information available for each field
Lack of an overall picture
Different units (m3, tons, Btu, Toe, GWh, PJ etc. )
Waste management
Environmental protection
Energy Production
Wood based Industries
Wood for energy
Society
Wood energy - a cross-sectoral topic:
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood and the energy market
Overview of Total Primary Energy Supply (World/Europe/ECE)
The share of renewable energy
Share of wood within renewable energies
Energy wood and other wood products
Types of wood energy
Development of wood energy
Trade in wood energy
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
World - Total Primary Energy Supply (2003)
23,9%
35,8%
20,8%10,6%
2,1% 6,4%
0,5%
Coal
Crude Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal, Solar, etc.
CombustiblesRenewables and Waste
Source: IEA
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
World energy supply / consumption per capita
Tons of oil equivalent per capita
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
World energy supply – importing and exporting countries
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
World energy supply – CO² emmisions
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
Europe energy supply/consumption per capita
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
Europe energy supply:
importing and exporting countries
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
TPES - Total Primary Energy Supply: Indigenous production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers ± stock changes
Europe energy supply –
CO² emmission per capita
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Europe 25 - Total Primary Energy Supply (2003)
18%
39%
4%1%
14%1%23%
Coal
Crude Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal, Solar, etc.
CombustiblesRenewables and Waste
How much of it is wood ?
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
“Combustible Renewables and Waste”As defined by the IEA:
• Gas Liquids from Biomass
• Industrial Waste
• Municipal Waste
• Solid Biomass and Animal Products
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Gas Liquids from Biomass
Biomass gases are derived principally from the fermentation of biomass (which may include some wood or wood by-products) and solid wastes. These gases are combusted to produce heat and/or power.
Included in this category are landfill gas and sludge gas (sewage gas and gas from animal slurries). Bio-additives such as ethanol are also included in this category.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Industrial Waste
Industrial waste consists of solid and liquid products combusted directly (usually in specialised plants, e.g. tyres) to produce heat and/or power.
It may contain wood.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Municipal Waste
Municipal waste consists of products that are combusted directly to produce heat and/or power.
It includes residential, commercial and public waste that is collected by local authorities for disposal in a central location. Hospital waste is included in this category.
It may contain wood or wood by-products (such as paper)
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Solid Biomass and Animal Products
Biomass is any plant matter used directly as fuel or converted into other forms before combustion.
Included are • wood, • vegetal waste (including wood waste and
crops used for energy production), • animal materials/wastes • sulphite lyes, also known as "black liquor"
(a by-product from the manufacture of paper where the energy content derives from the lignin removed from wood pulp)
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
“Combustible Renewables and Waste”As defined by the IEA:
• Gas Liquids from Biomass
• Industrial Waste
• Municipal Waste
• Solid Biomass and Animal Products
Wood energy has no specific category !
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood ~ 3 % of the Total Primary Energy Supply in the EU 25 (source: EurObserver 2005
Composition of Cumbustibles, Renewables and Waste 2004
Total Primary Energy Supply (EU 25)
Other (straw, peat, corn,animal manure etc.)
Wood
75 % = 43,5 Mtoe
Wood energy supply in the EU 25?
55,4 Mtoe
Combustibles, Renewables and Waste
4 % of EU
25 TPES
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Importance of wood, wood wastes, other solid wastes as % of TPES
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Biomass composition for energy use of biomass in 20 European Countries (1999)
Source: AFB-Net 2001
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Most biomass is used for heat production
83%
17%
Increasingly used in combined heat and power plants (CHP).
Households and local heating networks
83%
17%
heat production electricity production
83 %
17 %
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Remaining high price for crude oil makes alternative fuels more
attractive.
Technical progress in burning facilities
Emerging new types of wood fuel
More competition - higher market prices
Wood processing industries (pulp and paper, panel and sawmill
industries) are facing competition for raw material with energy
producer.
Assessment of future developments requires better data on wood
energy from the energy and the forestry side.
Wood processing vs. Wood energy?
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Forestry and Timber sector versus Energy sector– two sectors – two worlds ?
Mtoe, MWh, GJ, Mcal, TPES, ….
Roundwood equivalent,m3, tons,…
Definitions and language
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
How important is bioenergy? Which role do wood and biomass play for energy? Where does
wood energy go to?
Where does wood for energy come
from? – How does this affect forestry?
Forestry and Timber sector versus Energy sector– two sectors – two worlds ?
Objectives
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNECE/FAO Timber Section:
Where does wood energy come from?
Joint effort by the IEA, UNECE, FAO and EU
Joint Wood Energy Enquiry
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood removals EU 25 (2004)
0102030405060708090
Sw
eden
Fin
land
Ger
man
yF
ranc
eP
olan
dA
ustri
aS
pain
Cze
ch_R
epLa
tvia
Por
tuga
lE
ston
iaIta
lyN
orw
ay UK
Lith
uani
aS
lova
kia
Hun
gary
Bel
gium
Slo
veni
aIre
land
Gre
ece
Den
mar
kN
ethe
rland
sLu
xem
bour
Mal
ta
1.00
0.00
0 m
3
Industrial roundwood Wood fuel
Traditional fuel wood and its importance for the national forestry
Source: FRA 2005n
Russian Federation
129
50
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
EU 25 (2004) National removals for fuelwood (%)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Gre
ece
Italy
Den
mar
k
Hun
gary
Fran
ce
Net
herla
nds
Lith
uani
aE
ston
iaA
ustri
a
Nor
way
Slo
veni
aE
U 2
5
Bel
gium
Spa
in
Sw
eden
Ger
man
y
Finl
and
Latv
iaP
ortu
gal
Cze
ch_R
ep.
Slo
vaki
a
Pol
and
UK
Luxe
mbo
urg
Irela
ndM
alta
Source: UNECE/FAO Timber Section
Traditional fuel wood and its importance for the national forestry
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Other paper and paperboard
Woodfuel
Wood chips and particles
Wood residues
Plywood and veneer
Sawnwood
Fibreboard Particleboard Wood pulp
Recovered wood products Other fibre
pulpRecovered
paper
Recovered fibre pulp
Mechanical wood pulp
Semi-chem. wood pulp
Chemical wood pulp
Dissolving pulp
Newsprint Printing and writing paper
Roundwood
Other industrial roundwood
Pulpwood, round & split
Sawlogs and veneer logs
Source: EFSOS UNECE/FAO
15 % (EU 25)
COMPLEX RAW MATERIAL FLOWS
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Source: EFSOS UNECE/FAO
Direct:Logging residues, thinnings, clearings,
short rotation coppice etc.
Indirect:Residues, enhanced/densified wood fuel
(pellets, charcoal, biofuels), etc.
Recovered:Post consumer recycled wood products (often
contaminated), construction, demolition, waste etc.
Wood for energy use can have many forms…
The Joint Wood Energy Enquiry – Structure
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Wood energy
– Various forms, different assets…
Dry, indirect, co-product
High energy density. Compatible with existing engines, distribution schemes already in place.
Direct or indirect co-product
Black Liquor
Liquid, easy storage, local use
light, dry, easy storage and transport
Cha
rcoa
l
High energy density, standardized humidity, easy
storage and transport
Pellets
SawdustChips
Abundant, local Fuel
woo
d
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Final energy usersWood fuel supply sources
Forests
Industries
Society Private Households
Industrial sector
Power and Heat generation
Direct wood fuels: Wood used as solid and liquid fuel, produced for energy purposes
Recovered wood fuels: wood used as fuel, derived from socioeconomic activities outside the forest sector
Indirect wood fuels: solid and liquid bio fuels produced from wood processing activities
Sources and user for energy production
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
'Europe' Sources for wood fuel
S1 Direct
S2 Indirect
S3 Recovered
'Europe' User wood energy
U1 power and heat
U2 Industry
U3 Private
Source: UNECE Joint Wood Energy Enquiry
'Northern America' Sources for wood fuel
S1 Direct
S2 Indirect
S3 Recovered
'Northern America' User wood energy
U1 power and heat
U2 Industry
U3 Private
`North America´`North America´
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
'Northern America' Sources for wood fuel
S1 Direct
S2 Indirect
S3 Recovered
'Northern America' User wood energy
U1 power and heat
U2 Industry
U3 Private
`North America´`North America´
'Europe' Sources for wood fuel
S1 Direct
S2 Indirect
S3 Recovered
'Europe' User wood energy
U1 power and heat
U2 Industry
U3 Private
Source: UNECE Joint Wood Energy Enquiry
SOURCES:
- Indirect wood is the most important source for wood energy generation.
- Direct wood supply plays less of a role in North America than in Europe.
- Restrictive waste management policies (reduced landfill) and higher raw material prices increase the use of post consumer recovered wood.
USER:
- Wood processing industries are important consumer of wood energy. In particular in North America
- Commercial power and heat generation plays a major role in North America
- In Europe fuelwood and wood fuel consumption by private households is quite significant
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Different sources of wood energyEurope
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Fran
ce
Sw
eden
Finl
and
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Nor
way
Sw
itzer
land
Uni
ted
King
dom
Lith
uani
a
Slo
veni
a
Net
herla
nds
1000
m3
S1 D irect S2 Indirect S3 Recovered
N orthe rn A m e rica
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
USA
Can
ada
Sources North AmericaEurope
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Different user of wood energyEurope
0
10 ,000
20 ,000
30 ,000
40 ,000
50 ,000
60 ,000
Fran
ce
Sw
eden
Finl
and
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Nor
way
Sw
itzer
land
Uni
ted
King
dom
Lith
uani
a
Slo
veni
a
Net
herla
nds
1000
m3
U 1 P ow er and hea t U 2 Industria l U3 P riva te househo lds
N o rth e rn A m e rica
0
20 ,000
40 ,000
60 ,000
80 ,000
1 00 ,000
1 20 ,000
1 40 ,000
1 60 ,000
1 80 ,000
2 00 ,000
US
A
Can
ada
Users North AmericaEurope
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Energy from sawdust – high quality fuel production
Source: Hillring
Trend:
Standardized, dry product with high energy content, easy to transport
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
What is the advantage of upgraded fuels?
- Moisture content is an important factor for the energy content per unit.
- Emission standards require a low humidity
- Modern burning facilities are highly efficient (>90%) and require high quality, dry fuel.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Energy content and density of different wood fuels (dry)
Source: Eurobserver / World Energy Council
0.270.39Wood Pellets
0.50.63Ethanol
0.81Oil Petroleum
0.080.23Peat 0.150.33Fuelwood
…0.26 – 0.35Black liquor0.150.19 – 0.33Wood Chips
Toe/m3Toe/ton material
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
International trade in biomass trade for energy production
Source: www.bioenergy.org IEA Bioenergy Task 40
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
International biomass trade for energy production in Europe
Wood has been a locally used energy carrier in the past.
Recent technical development provides the market with compacted energy carrier with a standardized humidity and Energy content.
The international transport of wood for energy purpose has the potential to maintain its momentum and to accelerated its growth. The European trade of biomass. Source: AFB-net.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
International wood energy trade
• Traditionally considered negligible
• Statistical problems (classification measurement)
• Non-traditional forms (pellets etc.)
• In fact significant and (probably) growing
In the common field of energy, trade, waste management and forestry
UNECE Timber Section Joint Wood Energy Enquiry provides better information about the production and flow of energy wood in the different member states.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
If wood energy develops throughout the UNECE region, …
…Will there be enough Wood ???
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
State of the forests within the UNECE :
Forest resource assessment (FAO) in 2005:
Annually growing forest area
Increasing growing stock
Perpetual availability of the raw material due to sustainable management of the natural resources.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Source: UNECE/FAO FRA 2005
0,001% annually increase in forest surface within the UNECE (EU 25, Russian Federation and CEE)
~ 650 000 ha/a (Belgium total forest surface 667 000 ha)
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Net annual increment, Europe 25(million m3)
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source FAO Source MCPFE 2003
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Recent market development:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Fr
ance
Swed
enFi
nlan
dG
erm
any
Spai
nPo
land
Aust
riaPo
rtuga
lLa
tvia
Unite
dDe
nmar
kIta
lyCz
ech
Rep.
Gre
ece
Hung
ary
Neth
erla
nds
Lith
uani
aSl
oven
iaBe
lgiu
mSl
ovak
iaEs
toni
aIre
land
Luxe
mbo
urg
Cypr
usM
alta
Consumption of primary energy from wood energy EU 25 (in Mtoe)
2003 2004 (estimation)
Total 2004: 55,4 Mtoe
(+ 5,6%)
Source: Eurobserver 2005
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
0123456789
10Fi
nlan
dSw
eden
Ger
man
ySp
ain
Uni
ted
King
dom
Net
herla
nds
Den
mar
kFr
ance
Aust
riaPo
rtuga
lH
unga
ryPo
land
Cze
chR
ep.
Belg
ium
Italy
Slov
akia
Slov
enia
Esto
nia
Latv
iaLi
thua
nia
Gross electricity generation from wood energy (in TWh)
20032004 (estimation)
Source: Eurobserver 2005
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The ambitious aim of the White Paper* cannot be reached…
Source: Eurobserver 2005
MToe *
* White Paper 1997 by the European Commission EC Strategy and action plan on Renewable energy sources
Mtoe:Million tons oil equivalent
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
… but energy generation from wood
will steadily increase…
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
… because it is creating jobs – more than other energy sectors…Predicted impact on local employment from bioenergy and from other renewable energy technologies, European Union (new net full-time jobs relative to 1995 base)
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
…it is economic viable at current and mid term fuel prices…
0
50
100
Nov
03
Jan
04
Mrz
04
Mai
04
Jul 0
4
Sep
04
Nov
04
Jan
05
Mrz
05
Mai
05
Jul 0
5
Sep
05
Nov
05
Jan
06
Mrz
06
Mai
06
Jul 0
6
Sep
06
USD
/m³
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(Cru
de O
il) U
SD/b
bl
theore tica l wood fue l p rice $ /m³ (based on energy equ iva lent)
C rude O il (U S$/bb l)
END-USER PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICESAND
AVERAGE CRUDE OIL IMPORT COSTS
Source: IEA, November 2006
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Export prices for coniferous roundwood (Europe)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
$/m
3… due to stable market prices for unprocessed wood.
Storms affecting the wood market
average price roundwood (EU 25) ($/m3) Source: UNECE Timber Section
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
The stable prices are changing at the moment (pellets):
Modern burning facilities request processed, standardized wood products.
New market – small number of producer
More investments in (private/small) burning facilities
Shortage in raw material (market and policy failure)
Demand exceeds offer => higher prices
frustrated consumer
Competition among regions (USA East/West; Italan consumer vs. German, Austrian and French)
Influence on other wood products – generally higher prices
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Three market trends point to the opportunity to expand biomass fuel markets.
1) Wood is currently available in many regions for less than half the cost of fossil fuel on a delivered Toe (tons of oil equivalent) basis. In many areas, the supply of low-grade timber and chips is large and demand is small.
2) Rapid fluctuations in energy prices over the last few winters has stimulated many industries to look for a more stable fuel supply. The price of wood fuel has fluctuated little over the last 10 to 15 years.
3) The availability of fuel - at any cost - is less certain than in the past. Purchasing a locally available, renewable fuel from a local business owner is one way industries can increase security in an uncertain and rapidly changing world.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Conclusion I:
• Fuelwood is not a panacea and cannot assure the entire energy supply, but can help to diversify the national energy portfolio.
• At current crude oil prices wood energy is economically competitivewithout subsidies.
• Raw material price for wood will remain relatively stable as the resource is still increasing in volume and surface due to sustainable forest management.
• Energy markets world-wide may become more stable due to a large number of energy suppliers compared to the current situation.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Conclusion II:
• Wood is easy to store and serves perfectly as standby energy source to accommodate less permanent and less constant energy sources (e.g. wind/solar).
• New markets may generate substantial income sources for relatively poor world regions.
• International bio-energy trade will increase
• The development in the wood energy sector has a positive trend. The magnitude of future development will largely depend on external factors like remaining high oil prices, (environmental and economical) political decisions at the local, national regional and international levels.
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UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNECEUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUnited Nations Economic Commission for Europe
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