31/01/2013 BlackBerry has short window to prove itself - MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=750ECC04-6B0C-11E2-AC0D-002128040CF6 1/3

Therese Poletti's Tech Tales

Jan. 31, 2013, 6:01 a.m. EST

BlackBerry has short window to prove itselfCommentary: Potential for upside earnings, though, is high

By Therese Poletti, MarketWatch

BlackBerry Chief Executive Officer Thorsten Heins displays one of the new Blackberry 10 smartphones.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The new software and smartphones launched by BlackBerry on

Wednesday were a great start in its reinvention efforts, but will they be enough to revive the company

in a short window of time?

To say that investors have been looking forward to the next generation of products from the company previously

known as Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ:RIMM) is the understatement of the day. Its shares have surged over

140% in the last four months in anticipation of the rollout. Read about BlackBerry's major launch.

One analyst, Francisco Jeronimo of IDC, aptly described the major product assault as “D-Day for Research in

Motion.”

“The company has no other major options; if it doesn’t succeed with the new platform, there are no alternatives on

the hardware or software sides,” Jeronimo wrote in a note.

Investors are hoping the new products and major software revamp will be enough to restore the company to some

of its former glory. But it better happen fast.

Getty Images

31/01/2013 BlackBerry has short window to prove itself - MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=750ECC04-6B0C-11E2-AC0D-002128040CF6 2/3

BlackBerry Hub pulls notifications into

one place

Head of softw are Vivek Bhardw aj show s off the

BlackBerry Hub, a central location for all a users e-mail,

facebook, tw eets and more, on the new BlackBerry Z10.

BB10 keyboard has multiple languages,

new features

Head of softw are Vivek Bhardw aj demonstrates the

many features of the new BlackBerry BB10 keyboard.

Mossberg reviews new BlackBerry

The BlackBerry has been reinvented to join the mix of

today's touch smartphones. Walt Mossberg gives us his

“It’s not clear how much time investors will give RIM,” said Shaw

Wu, an analyst with Sterne Agee. “These products are actually

pretty impressive, but it really remains to be seen if end-users are

going to embrace them.”

Already, its shares fell 6%, as investors were trying to figure out

when they might see some tangible results from the new devices,

with some launch dates still up in the air.

“While the Z10 will be available in the U.K., Canada, and the U.A.E.

[United Arab Emirates] soon, the later launch in the U.S. in March

could be disappointing to some,” Wu wrote in a research note. “In

addition, the Q10 won’t be available until April.” He noted that

prices of $149.99 and $199.99 “don’t seem competitive,” with many

Android smartphones available for $99, $49, or free. “We believe

RIMM and/or carriers may need to price more aggressively to

generate interest.”

At that rate, investors won’t see much of an impact on BlackBerry’s earnings until the company’s fiscal first quarter

of 2014, which will end in early June. (The shares will start trading under the symbol BBRY next week.) The current

quarter, which ends in early March, will also see some sales, but the bigger impact will be seen when U.S. sales

begin.

Jeronimo of IDC is predicting that BlackBerry will mostly remain as a favorite by corporate computer users. Part of

the new BlackBerry 10 software will divide the personal and corporate element of the phone, so that IT managers

can control what they need to control and consumers can have freedom with personal email, apps and games.

“IDC estimates that BlackBerry will continue to be a major player in the enterprise segment, but a smaller player in

the overall smartphone market with a market share of around 5%,” he wrote.

Still, the company has a far better chance than a companies like

Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK) and Palm Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) did to revive

themselves, said investor Eric Jackson, the founder of IronFire

Capital. In an interview earlier this week on Yahoo Finance’s

Breakout, he said he has owned the stock since November and

has what he calls a “contrarian view.” Watch Eric Jackson interview.

“RIM has this huge installed base of about 80 million global

subscribers... The 80 million that are still there with RIM, you have

to call them diehards,” Jackson said. “When these new phones

come out, they are going to buy.” He said the carriers want a

company to become the “third horse in this Android and iOS race,”

referring to the rivalry between phones based on Google Inc.’s

(NASDAQ:GOOG) Android software and Apple Inc.’s

(NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone.

“RIM doesn’t have to sell many of these things for this to be a huge home run this year,” he said, adding that Wall

Street consensus estimates are for the company to lose 50 cents a share in fiscal 2014. ”If one in three subscribers

buy this thing, they get 4 or 5 bucks a share in EPS.”

And so far, some early reviews of the devices and operating

system are good. David Pogue of the New York Times wrote, “Well,

BlackBerry’s Hail Mary pass, its bet-the-farm phone, is finally here.

It’s the BlackBerry Z10, and guess what? It’s lovely, fast and

efficient, bristling with fresh, useful ideas,” Pogue wrote. “And

here’s the shocker — it’s complete.” Read Pogue’s review of the

new BlackBerry.

Walt Mossberg of The Wall Street Journal was not quite as

effusive, but called the Z10 and the new BlackBerry 10 software a

“radical reinvention of the BlackBerry. The hardware is decent and

the user interface is logical and generally easy to use,” Mossberg

31/01/2013 BlackBerry has short window to prove itself - MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=750ECC04-6B0C-11E2-AC0D-002128040CF6 3/3

take on the new BlackBerry OS, and f ive important things

you should know about RIM's new phones. (Photo:

Research In Motion)

wrote. “I believe it has a chance of getting BlackBerry back into the

game, if the company can attract a lot more apps.” Read

Mossberg's review on All Things D.

Whether or not enough current subscribers decide they want to stick with their devices, once known as

“Crackberries” for their addictive nature, is the big question. Attracting new customers would be a big additional

bonus, but in both cases, the company needs to start selling its devices fast, as the window of opportunity could

shut very quickly.

Copy right © 2013 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserv ed.By using this site, y ou agree to the Terms of Serv ice and Priv acy Policy - UPDATED 10/18/2011.

Intraday Data prov ided by SIX Financial Inf ormation and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of -day data prov ided by SIX Financial Inf ormation. Intraday datadelay ed per exchange requirements. S&P/Dow Jones Indices (SM) f rom Dow Jones & Company , Inc. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real time last sale data prov idedby NASDAQ. More inf ormation on NASDAQ traded sy mbols and their current f inancial status. Intraday data delay ed 15 minutes f or Nasdaq, and 20 minutes f or otherexchanges. S&P/Dow Jones Indices (SM) f rom Dow Jones & Company , Inc. SEHK intraday data is prov ided by SIX Financial Inf ormation and is at least 60-minutes delay ed.All quotes are in local exchange time.