by N. Scott Urquhart Oregon State University, USA and Anthony R. Olsen US EPA

ANATOMY # 1MSTS/2004

ANATOMY OF SAMPLING STUDIES ANATOMY OF SAMPLING STUDIES

OFOF

ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIMEECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME{on the web at http://www.oregonstate.edu/instruct/st571/urquhart/anatomy/index.htm}{on the web at http://www.oregonstate.edu/instruct/st571/urquhart/anatomy/index.htm}

byby

N. Scott UrquhartN. Scott UrquhartOregon State University, USAOregon State University, USA

andand

Anthony R. OlsenAnthony R. OlsenUS EPAUS EPA


STARMAP FUNDINGSTARMAP FUNDINGSpace-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and

Analysis ProgramAnalysis ProgramThe work reported here today was developed under the STAR The work reported here today was developed under the STAR

Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation.commercial services mentioned in these presentation.

This research is funded by

U.S.EPA – Science To AchieveResults (STAR) ProgramCooperativeAgreement

# CR - 829095


THE AUTHORSTHE AUTHORS N. SCOTT URQUHARTN. SCOTT URQUHART

Trained in StatisticsTrained in Statistics About 40 Years of Experience in ApplicationsAbout 40 Years of Experience in Applications

Worked With Ecologists in Desert, Arctic, Pacific NorthwestWorked With Ecologists in Desert, Arctic, Pacific Northwest Many Surveys with Rural Sociologists and Ag EconomistsMany Surveys with Rural Sociologists and Ag Economists Including 10 years with EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Including 10 years with EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and

Assessment Program (EMAP)Assessment Program (EMAP)

ACADEMIC And AGENCY; PLANT And ANIMALACADEMIC And AGENCY; PLANT And ANIMAL

ANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSENANTHONY (Tony) R. OLSEN Trained in StatisticsTrained in Statistics 30+ Years of Experience in Private and Government Applications30+ Years of Experience in Private and Government Applications

Worked With Atmospheric Modelers And Air Pollution Field Worked With Atmospheric Modelers And Air Pollution Field Scientists Scientists

Survey Experience With Health Professionals And Large-scale Survey Experience With Health Professionals And Large-scale National Resource MonitoringNational Resource Monitoring

Now Statistical Lead with EPA’s EMAPNow Statistical Lead with EPA’s EMAP


EVOLUTION OF THE “ANATOMY”EVOLUTION OF THE “ANATOMY”

The first step in the development of the The first step in the development of the

ANATOMY focused on experimental design ANATOMY focused on experimental design

situations.situations. Served as the structure for several part-semester Served as the structure for several part-semester

courses in advanced statistical methods at New courses in advanced statistical methods at New Mexico State UniversityMexico State University

Eventually published asEventually published as Urquhart, N. S. (1981). Anatomy of a study.

HortScience 16:621-627.Experience with EMAP led to its expansion to

surveys


TODAY’S CONTEXT for TODAY’S CONTEXT for SURVEYSSURVEYS

“ “EMAP-type Situations”EMAP-type Situations” EMAP = US EPA’S EMAP = US EPA’S EEnvironmental nvironmental MMonitoring and onitoring and AAssessment ssessment PProgramrogram

Estimate Status, Changes ...Estimate Status, Changes ... In Indicators In Indicators

Estimate Status, Changes, ... Estimate Status, Changes, ... In Extent In Extent

Describe Associations ...Describe Associations ...


17.6% ± 10%

6.8% ± 6%

43.8% ± 12%

31.8% ± 8%

(N=258)

Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study

Objective #1: Estimate the status, changes and trends in selected indicators of the condition of our Nation's ecological resources on a regional scalewith known confidence

Hypereutrophic

Eutrophic

Mesotrophic

Oligotrophic

on a regional scalewith known confidence

Hypereutrophic

Eutrophic

Mesotrophic

Oligotrophic


Northeast Adir NEU C/L/P

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Objective #2: Estimate the status, changes and trendsin the extent and geographic coverage of our Nation'secological resources on a regional scale with knownconfidence

North

east

Adir

NEU

C/L/P

Est.

Lake #SE

Est.

AreaSE

11,455

1,506

5,689

4,280

1,251

285

1,206

1,048

4,030

1,082

2,099

850

814

395

758

254

Adir = Adirondacks; NEU = New England Uplands; C/L/P = Coast & Lake Plains Source: EMAP Northeast Lakes Study


Objective #3: Describe associationsbetween indicators of anthropogenic stressand indicators of condition

17%

17%

36%

31%

Proportion of Stream Length

(InsufficientData)

Good

Fair

Poor

Fish Index of Biotic Integrity

% of Stream Length

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Riparian Habitat

Sedimentation

Mine Drainage

Acidic Deposition

Tissue Contamination

Phosphorus

Acid Mine Drainage

24%

25%

14%

11%

10%

5%

1%

Nitrogen

5%

Relative Ranking of Stressors

Source: EMAP Mid-Atlantic Highlands Assessment


WHO MUST COMMUNICATEWHO MUST COMMUNICATE

Ecologists & Other BiologistsEcologists & Other Biologists StatisticiansStatisticians GeographersGeographers Geographic Information Specialists (GIS)Geographic Information Specialists (GIS) Information ManagersInformation Managers Quality Assurance PersonnelQuality Assurance Personnel Managers, At Various LevelsManagers, At Various Levels


““SAMPLING” SAMPLING”

A WORD OF MANY MEANINGSA WORD OF MANY MEANINGS Statisticians Often Associate It With SurveyStatisticians Often Associate It With Survey

Sampling Sampling An Ecologist May Associate It with the Selection ofAn Ecologist May Associate It with the Selection of

Local Sites or Material Local Sites or Material A Laboratory Scientist May Associate It With theA Laboratory Scientist May Associate It With the

Selection Of Material to be Analyzed fromSelection Of Material to be Analyzed fromMaterial SuppliedMaterial Supplied

Common General Meaning, Varied Specific Common General Meaning, Varied Specific MeaningsMeanings


THE SPECIAL NEEDTHE SPECIAL NEED

Communication Demands a DistinctionCommunication Demands a DistinctionBetweenBetween

The Local Process of Evaluating a Response,The Local Process of Evaluating a Response, andand

The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit,The Statistical Selection of a Sampling Unit, For example, For example,

A LAKEA LAKEA POINT ON A STEAMA POINT ON A STEAM


THE SPECIAL NEED - THE SPECIAL NEED - continuedcontinued

The TermsThe Terms Response Design Response Design Sampling Design or Survey DesignSampling Design or Survey Design

Can Be Used to Make this DistinctionCan Be Used to Make this Distinction

But a Complex Ecological Survey But a Complex Ecological Survey Clearly Has More Parts Than These! Clearly Has More Parts Than These!


BASIC ROLESBASIC ROLES

Survey Design Tells Us Where to Go to Survey Design Tells Us Where to Go to Collect Sample Information or Material Collect Sample Information or Material

Response Design Tells Us What to DoResponse Design Tells Us What to Do Once We Get There Once We Get There

But These Two Components Exist in aBut These Two Components Exist in a Broader Context Broader Context


AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTIONAN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

Monitoring StrategyMonitoring Strategy

ConceptualConceptual

Impacted by ObjectivesImpacted by Objectives

Addressable Without Regard to Addressable Without Regard to the Inference Strategy the Inference Strategy

Inference StrategyInference Strategy


AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTIONAN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION- continuedcontinued

Monitoring StrategyMonitoring Strategy ....................

Inference StrategyInference Strategy

Places to Evaluate the Response – “the Places to Evaluate the Response – “the WHERE”WHERE”

Relation Between Points Evaluated and Relation Between Points Evaluated and the Population the Population

IE, the Basis for InferenceIE, the Basis for Inference


SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL SAMPLING STUDIES OF ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVERESPONSES THROUGH TIME HAVE

Monitoring StrategyMonitoring Strategy Universe ModelUniverse Model Statistical PopulationStatistical Population Domain DesignDomain Design Response DesignResponse Design

Inference StrategyInference Strategy Survey DesignSurvey Design Temporal DesignTemporal Design Quality Assurance DesignQuality Assurance Design

These componentsexist regardless of the inference strategy

These componentsexist for any monitoring strategy



MONITORING STRATEGYMONITORING STRATEGY Universe ModelUniverse Model Statistical PopulationStatistical Population Domain DesignDomain Design Response DesignResponse Design

INFERENCE STRATEGYINFERENCE STRATEGY Survey DesignSurvey Design Temporal DesignTemporal Design Quality Assurance DesignQuality Assurance Design


The MONITORING STRATEGYThe MONITORING STRATEGY The MONITORING STRATEGY MUSTThe MONITORING STRATEGY MUST

RESPOND TO RESPOND TO Monitoring ObjectivesMonitoring Objectives State of Knowledge in Ecological SciencesState of Knowledge in Ecological Sciences Characteristics of Ecological Resource(s) Characteristics of Ecological Resource(s)

of Interestof Interest EXPECTED FUNDINGEXPECTED FUNDING Compared To Compared To COSTSCOSTS Operational ConstraintsOperational Constraints


The UNIVERSE MODELThe UNIVERSE MODEL Reality (Universe): Ecological Entity WithinReality (Universe): Ecological Entity Within

a Defined Geographic Area to Be Monitoreda Defined Geographic Area to Be Monitored Model of the Universe:Model of the Universe:

Development of a Monitoring Approach Development of a Monitoring Approach Requires Construction of a Model for theRequires Construction of a Model for theUniverseUniverse

Elements Of The Universe Model: Set ofElements Of The Universe Model: Set of Entities Composing The Entire Universe Entities Composing The Entire Universe


The UNIVERSE MODELThe UNIVERSE MODEL Population Description and Its SamplingPopulation Description and Its Sampling

Require Definition of the “Units” in the Require Definition of the “Units” in the PopulationPopulation

Discrete Units:Discrete Units: Lakes May Be Viewed This WayLakes May Be Viewed This Way

Continuous Structure in Space of SomeContinuous Structure in Space of SomeDimension:Dimension:

2-space: forests or agroecosystems2-space: forests or agroecosystems 1-space: Streams1-space: Streams 3-space: Ground Water3-space: Ground Water


THE MODEL FOR STREAMSTHE MODEL FOR STREAMSStrahler OrdersStrahler Orders

Third Order

First Orders

First Orders

First Order

First Orders

Second Order

Second Order

SecondOrder


The STATISTICAL POPULATIONThe STATISTICAL POPULATION TThe Collection of Units (as modeled) Over Somehe Collection of Units (as modeled) Over Some

Region of DefinitionRegion of Definition SpatialSpatial TemporalTemporal SPATIAL And TEMPORALSPATIAL And TEMPORAL

Population Definition Could Include Features Population Definition Could Include Features Which Depend on Response ValuesWhich Depend on Response Values

EX: acid sensitive streams at upper elevationsEX: acid sensitive streams at upper elevations


The DOMAIN DesignThe DOMAIN Design Specifies Subpopulations or “Domains” ofSpecifies Subpopulations or “Domains” of

Special Interest Special Interest May Specify Meaningful ComparisonsMay Specify Meaningful Comparisons

Between Domains Between Domains Similar to Planned Comparisons inSimilar to Planned Comparisons in

Experimental Design Situations Experimental Design Situations

Domain Design May Depend on ResponseDomain Design May Depend on ResponseValuesValues

Ex: Warm Ex: Warm VersusVersus Cold Water Lakes Cold Water Lakes


The DOMAIN DESIGN - The DOMAIN DESIGN - continuedcontinued

SSpecifies Subpopulations or “Domains” ofpecifies Subpopulations or “Domains” ofSpecial InterestSpecial Interest

Determined From Defining Factors ForDetermined From Defining Factors For The Monitoring Activity The Monitoring Activity

Must Have Critical Connection To ClientsMust Have Critical Connection To Clients Other Domains May Be Used For Analysis, Other Domains May Be Used For Analysis,

Without Having Been Used In Defining The Without Having Been Used In Defining The Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy

EX: EMAP domains include EX: EMAP domains include ECOAREASECOAREAS and and STANDARD FEDERAL REGIONSSTANDARD FEDERAL REGIONS


The RESPONSE DesignThe RESPONSE Design

The Response Design SpecifiesThe Response Design Specifies The Process of Obtaining A ResponseThe Process of Obtaining A Response

At An Individual Element (Site)At An Individual Element (Site) Of The ResourceOf The Resource During A Single Monitoring PeriodDuring A Single Monitoring Period

Response: What Will Be Determined Response: What Will Be Determined On An Element – On An Element – Needs To Be Responsive to the Objectives of theNeeds To Be Responsive to the Objectives of the

Monitoring ActivityMonitoring Activity


The RESPONSE Design The RESPONSE Design - continuedcontinued

EMAP Responses Focus On Indicators ofEMAP Responses Focus On Indicators of STRESS andSTRESS and ConditionCondition

The Response Design Also DefinesThe Response Design Also Defines Plot DesignPlot Design Measurement ProtocolsMeasurement Protocols

Support Region – area around the site where materialSupport Region – area around the site where materialis collected, or measurements are takenis collected, or measurements are taken

Data Reduction ProtocolsData Reduction Protocols Calculation Of The Final Indicator Value for theCalculation Of The Final Indicator Value for the

ElementElement


The RESPONSE DesignThe RESPONSE Design- - ContinuedContinued

For example, consider a response related to For example, consider a response related to macroinvertebrates in streams macroinvertebrates in streams

RESPONSE = proportion EPT (This is theRESPONSE = proportion EPT (This is the proportion of collected macrobenthos proportion of collected macrobenthos organisms, mainly insects, which fall in the organisms, mainly insects, which fall in the taxonomic classes of Ephemeroptera , taxonomic classes of Ephemeroptera , Plecoptera , or Trichoptera. Low values Plecoptera , or Trichoptera. Low values indicate polluted streams; high values indicate indicate polluted streams; high values indicate rather pristine streams) rather pristine streams)


The RESPONSE Design The RESPONSE Design - continued - 2- continued - 2

... response related to macrobenthos ...... response related to macrobenthos ... TheThe COLLECTION UNITS COLLECTION UNITS could be 10 could be 10

30cm x 30cm areas, systematically organized, at 30cm x 30cm areas, systematically organized, at the stream site, sampled with a “Surber the stream site, sampled with a “Surber sampler” sampler”

The The EVALUATION UNIT EVALUATION UNIT could be a jar containing the could be a jar containing the composite of all macroinvertebrate organisms collected composite of all macroinvertebrate organisms collected at the 10 collection sites, orat the 10 collection sites, or

The The EVALUATION UNIT EVALUATION UNIT also could be a jaralso could be a jar containing a 1/6 subsample of the composite of containing a 1/6 subsample of the composite of macroinvertebrate organisms collected in the macroinvertebrate organisms collected in the 10 collection units. 10 collection units.


The RESPONSE Design The RESPONSE Design - continued - 3- continued - 3

... response related to macrobenthos ...... response related to macrobenthos ... The LABORATORY EVALUATION of theThe LABORATORY EVALUATION of the

material would consist of determining and material would consist of determining and recording the taxa (like family, genus, or recording the taxa (like family, genus, or species) of each organism in the evaluation species) of each organism in the evaluation material material

The RESPONSE would be determined byThe RESPONSE would be determined by computing the number of organisms in the computing the number of organisms in the evaluation material belonging to the E, P, T evaluation material belonging to the E, P, T taxonomic classes, and dividing this by the taxonomic classes, and dividing this by the number of organisms classified. number of organisms classified.


The INFERENCE STRATEGYThe INFERENCE STRATEGY Is The Basis For Scientific Inference Is The Basis For Scientific Inference

Provides The Connection Between Objectives and theProvides The Connection Between Objectives and the Monitoring Strategy Monitoring Strategy

Monitoring Strategy Usually Must Rely on ObtainingMonitoring Strategy Usually Must Rely on ObtainingInformation on a Subset Of All Possible Elements Information on a Subset Of All Possible Elements

inin the Universe the Universe

Specifies Which Elements of the Universe Will HaveSpecifies Which Elements of the Universe Will HaveResponses Determined on ThemResponses Determined on Them

Can Be Based On Either ... (continued )Can Be Based On Either ... (continued )


The INFERENCE STRATEGYThe INFERENCE STRATEGY(continued)(continued)

... Connection ...... Connection ...

... Subset ...... Subset ...

... Have Responses... Have Responses

Can Be Based On EitherCan Be Based On Either

Judgment Selection Of UnitsJudgment Selection Of Units

Inferential Validity Rests on Knowledge Of Relation Inferential Validity Rests on Knowledge Of Relation Between the Universe And the Units EvaluatedBetween the Universe And the Units Evaluated

Probability Selection Of Units Probability Selection Of Units (The Focus Here)(The Focus Here)


The SURVEY DesignThe SURVEY Design Probability Based Survey Designs AreProbability Based Survey Designs Are

Considered Here Considered Here May Be Somewhat Limited To Sedentary ResourcesMay Be Somewhat Limited To Sedentary Resources

Positive FeaturesPositive Features (As An Observational Study)(As An Observational Study)

Permit Clear Statistical Inference to Permit Clear Statistical Inference to Well-Defined PopulationsWell-Defined Populations

Measurements Often can be Made in NaturalMeasurements Often can be Made in Natural Settings, Giving Rise to Greater Realism Settings, Giving Rise to Greater Realism Eventual Results Eventual Results


The SURVEY DESIGN - The SURVEY DESIGN - CONTINUEDCONTINUED

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Limited Control Over Values of PredictorLimited Control Over Values of Predictor

Variables Variables Restricts Causative InferenceRestricts Causative Inference Usually Will Produce Inaccessible SamplingUsually Will Produce Inaccessible Sampling

Points Points Good - For InferenceGood - For Inference Bad - For LogisticsBad - For Logistics



Execution of a Sampling Plan RequiresExecution of a Sampling Plan Requires A Sampling FrameA Sampling Frame

A way to identify elements in the populationA way to identify elements in the population Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological Usually somewhat inaccurate for ecological

resourcesresources– Example selecting vegetation sites along the ColoradoExample selecting vegetation sites along the Colorado

River in the Grand Canyon River in the Grand Canyon


VIEW DOWN TRANSECT AT VIEW DOWN TRANSECT AT MILE 12.3MILE 12.3


CLIFF AT CLIFF AT MILE 135.2MILE 135.2

(PARTIAL (PARTIAL HEIGHT)HEIGHT)

CLIFF AT CLIFF AT MILE 135.2MILE 135.2

(PARTIAL (PARTIAL HEIGHT)HEIGHT)







Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western USin the Western US


FRAME ERRORSFRAME ERRORSTO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLYTO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY

Water Body SizeWater Body Size Flow Status -- re PerennialFlow Status -- re Perennial

Identified As Perennial, but not correctIdentified As Perennial, but not correct Wastes Effort Of Field CrewsWastes Effort Of Field Crews

Identified as Non-perennial, but Really isIdentified as Non-perennial, but Really isPerennial Perennial

Missed ResourceMissed Resource Inaccurate AssessmentInaccurate Assessment


EMAP-West Stream/river LengthEMAP-West Stream/river Length(km ± 95% CI)(km ± 95% CI)

from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposiumfrom Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

FFrraammee SSoouurrcceeRRFF33 FFrraammee

SSiizzeeEvaluated“Perennial”

EvaluatedNon- perennial

RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709

RF3 CodedNon- perennial

(Non- perennial Survey)

1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774







RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709



1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774







Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams Example: Frame for selecting field sites on streams in the Western USin the Western US

May change over timeMay change over time– As, for example, land use changesAs, for example, land use changes


SITE SELECTIONSITE SELECTION

Needs to Accommodate Realities Such AsNeeds to Accommodate Realities Such As Frame ImperfectionFrame Imperfection Frame Which Changes Over TimeFrame Which Changes Over Time Sites nearly Uniform Over the ResourceSites nearly Uniform Over the Resource

But with substantial randomizationBut with substantial randomization

Supports Variable Probability of SelectionSupports Variable Probability of Selection Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified

Sampling = GRTSSampling = GRTS The topic of the next sessionThe topic of the next session


The EMAP SURVEY DesignThe EMAP SURVEY Design Assures Representation and Inference toAssures Representation and Inference to

PopulationsPopulations Adapted to Resource CharacteristicsAdapted to Resource Characteristics Emphasizes Spatial Allocation of SamplesEmphasizes Spatial Allocation of Samples Uses Two-phase Sampling; Phase IUses Two-phase Sampling; Phase I Based on a Randomized Point Grid and Based on a Randomized Point Grid and

Associated Areas Associated Areas


Mid-Appalachian Highlands Stream PilotMid-Appalachian Highlands Stream Pilot

EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITESSITES


Western Stream PilotWestern Stream Pilot Non-perennial/perennial surveyNon-perennial/perennial survey Survey of perennial streamsSurvey of perennial streams

EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED EMAP EXAMPLE OF SELECTED SITESSITES


The TEMPORAL DesignThe TEMPORAL Design The TEMPORAL DESIGN specifies theThe TEMPORAL DESIGN specifies the

pattern of revisits to sites selected by the pattern of revisits to sites selected by the Survey Design Survey Design Sampled population units are partitioned into Sampled population units are partitioned into

one (degenerate case) or more PANELS. one (degenerate case) or more PANELS. Each population unit in the same panel has theEach population unit in the same panel has the

same temporal pattern of revisits. same temporal pattern of revisits. Panel definition could be probabilistic or Panel definition could be probabilistic or

systematic systematic

Several temporal designs followSeveral temporal designs follow


TEMPORAL DESIGN:TEMPORAL DESIGN:

ROTATING PANELROTATING PANEL TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)

PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 1 X X X X X 2 X X X X X 3 X X X X X 4 X X X X X 5 X X X X X 6 X X X X X 7 X X X X X 8 X X X X X 9 X X X X X



ROTATING PANELROTATING PANEL

A Rotating Panel Design is the Temporal Design Used by the A Rotating Panel Design is the Temporal Design Used by the National Agricultural Statistical Service (US - “NASS”) for National Agricultural Statistical Service (US - “NASS”) for Some SurveysSome Surveys

This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design SenseDesign Sense

It is Fairly Well Suited For Estimation “Status,” but not It is Fairly Well Suited For Estimation “Status,” but not Particularly Powerful For Detecting Trend OverParticularly Powerful For Detecting Trend Over Intermediate Time Spans Intermediate Time Spans



SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATING

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 1 X X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X

This Temporal Design is “Unconnected” in the This Temporal Design is “Unconnected” in the Experimental Design Sense. This was the Experimental Design Sense. This was the Temporal Design Initially Prescribed ForTemporal Design Initially Prescribed For

EMAP, EMAP, But ...But ...



AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATINGAUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATING

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1 X X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X

This Temporal Design Is “Connected” In The ExperimentalThis Temporal Design Is “Connected” In The Experimental

Design Sense, but Consider Its potential for TramplingDesign Sense, but Consider Its potential for Trampling

Effects.Effects.



PARTIALLY AUGMENTED PARTIALLY AUGMENTED SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATING

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 0 X X X X X 1 X X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X

This Temporal Design is “Connected” in The Experimental This Temporal Design is “Connected” in The Experimental

Design Sense, but is Weak for Estimating Period Effects.Design Sense, but is Weak for Estimating Period Effects.



SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATINGWITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITSWITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 1 X X X X X X X 2 X X X X X X 3 X X X X X X 4 X X X X X X

This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design SenseThis Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense

But It Provides Visits to Only Half as Many Sites as the Base SeriallyBut It Provides Visits to Only Half as Many Sites as the Base Serially

Alternating Design.Alternating Design.


TEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANELTEMPORAL DESIGN: SPLIT PANEL

SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATINGPLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH CONSECUTIVE YEAR

REVISITSREVISITS

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 1 X X X X 1A X X X X X X X 2 X X X 2A X X X X X X 3 X X X 3A X X X X X X 4 X X X 4A X X X X X X

This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design SenseThis Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design Sense



SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATINGPLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR

AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ... 1 X X X X 1A X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X 2 X X X 2A X X X X X X

X X X X X X 3 X X X 3A X X X X X X

X X X X X X 4 X X X 4A X X X X X X

X X X X X X


THE REVISIT SPLIT PANEL OF THE THE REVISIT SPLIT PANEL OF THE THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BYTHE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY

EMAP - SURFACE WATERS EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

TIME PERIOD ( ex: YEARS)PANEL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ...

1A X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

2A X X X X X X X X X X X X





SERIALLY ALTERNATINGSERIALLY ALTERNATINGPLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR PLUS SERIALLY ALTERNATING WITH WITHIN YEAR

AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS AND CONSECUTIVE YEAR REVISITS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS THE TEMPORAL DESIGN IN USE BY EMAP - SURFACE WATERS

This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental This Temporal Design is “Connected” in the Experimental Design SenseDesign Sense

It Also Supports Estimation of the Site by Time Period It Also Supports Estimation of the Site by Time Period (site by year) Interaction.(site by year) Interaction.

Revisits To About 10% Of Sites Allocates about 30% Revisits To About 10% Of Sites Allocates about 30% of Resources To Revisits of Resources To Revisits


QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGNQUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN

Defines Those Activities Intended to Provide DataDefines Those Activities Intended to Provide Dataof Known Quality:of Known Quality:

Blind duplicatesBlind duplicates Accepted chemical standards, EtcAccepted chemical standards, Etc

Can Provide Valid Estimates of the Variance ofCan Provide Valid Estimates of the Variance ofPure Measurement ErrorPure Measurement Error


END OF PLANNED END OF PLANNED PRESENTATIONPRESENTATION


RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAPVARIANCE FOR EMAP

POPULATION POPULATION = LAKE or STREAM, for example= LAKE or STREAM, for example YEAR -YEAR - YEAR by SITE -YEAR by SITE - CREW -CREW - SHORT TERM TEMPORAL - index window -SHORT TERM TEMPORAL - index window - PROTOCOL ERROR -PROTOCOL ERROR -

MEASUREMENT ERROR -MEASUREMENT ERROR -


RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF RELEVANT COMPONENTS OF VARIANCE FOR EMAPVARIANCE FOR EMAP

WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO ESTIMATE THESE?WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO ESTIMATE THESE?

WHICH ONES SHOULD BE INCLUDED INWHICH ONES SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN

“RESIDUAL” VARIANCE “RESIDUAL” VARIANCE

WHICH TREND MUST OVERCOME TO BEWHICH TREND MUST OVERCOME TO BE DEMONSTRATED? DEMONSTRATED?


COMPARISONS TO USUAL COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION

SAMPLINGSAMPLING UNIVERSE MODEL UNIVERSE MODEL

(AS DISTINCT FROM THE UNIVERSE) (AS DISTINCT FROM THE UNIVERSE)

NOT RELEVANTNOT RELEVANT VIEWED AS A LISTVIEWED AS A LIST

POPULATION POPULATION VERY SIMILAR, OTHER THAN DIFFERENCES VERY SIMILAR, OTHER THAN DIFFERENCES

IMPLICIT IN THE UNIVERSE MODEL IMPLICIT IN THE UNIVERSE MODEL


COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES COMPARISONS TO USUAL PERSPECTIVES OF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLINGOF FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING

continuedcontinued

DOMAIN DESIGN DOMAIN DESIGN USUALLY NOT EXPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGED,USUALLY NOT EXPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGED,

BUT VIEWED AS PART OF THE DESIGN BUT VIEWED AS PART OF THE DESIGN PROCESSPROCESS

RESPONSE DESIGNRESPONSE DESIGN QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN SOME ELEMENTS OF INTERVIEW PROTOCOLSSOME ELEMENTS OF INTERVIEW PROTOCOLS

SURVEY DESIGNSURVEY DESIGN RELATIVELY SIMILARRELATIVELY SIMILAR



continued - 2continued - 2

TEMPORAL DESIGNTEMPORAL DESIGN PRESENT, BUT PRESENT, BUT

MANY FINITE POPULATION SURVEYS ARE ONE-TIME MANY FINITE POPULATION SURVEYS ARE ONE-TIME MANY LARGE SURVEYS HAVE A TEMPORAL MANY LARGE SURVEYS HAVE A TEMPORAL

DIMENSION DIMENSION

CHANGE USUALLY IS OF FAR MORE INTERESTCHANGE USUALLY IS OF FAR MORE INTEREST THAN TREND THAN TREND

SURVEY LITERATURE DISTINGUISHES BETWEENSURVEY LITERATURE DISTINGUISHES BETWEEN GROSS CHANGE - follows units across timeGROSS CHANGE - follows units across time NET CHANGE - recognizes that change can occur inNET CHANGE - recognizes that change can occur in

both the response and in “who” is in the population both the response and in “who” is in the population



continued - 3continued - 3

QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGNQUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN SURVEYS OF HUMANS (OR BUSINESSES, SURVEYS OF HUMANS (OR BUSINESSES, ETCETC))

HAVE A VERY SIMILAR INTENT, BUT DETAILS HAVE A VERY SIMILAR INTENT, BUT DETAILS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY SUPERVISION IN PHONE SURVEYSSUPERVISION IN PHONE SURVEYS QUESTIONS TO CONFIRM RESPONDENTQUESTIONS TO CONFIRM RESPONDENT

CONSISTENCY CONSISTENCY REINTERVIEWS and SIMILAR REINTERVIEWS and SIMILAR

REEVALUATIONSREEVALUATIONS


MONITORING STRATEGYMONITORING STRATEGY

UNIVERSE MODELUNIVERSE MODEL

STATISTICAL POPULATIONSTATISTICAL POPULATION

DOMAIN DESIGNDOMAIN DESIGN

RESPONSE DESIGNRESPONSE DESIGN

INFERENCE STRATEGYINFERENCE STRATEGY

SURVEY DESIGNSURVEY DESIGN

TEMPORAL DESIGNTEMPORAL DESIGN

QUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGNQUALITY ASSURANCE DESIGN


These componentsexist regardless of the inference strategy

These componentsexist for any monitoring strategy


LINKS TO MONITORING REPORTS/DOCUMENTATION

Links to various monitoring programs, To the program’s site One to its methods, and One to a current report.

As links change in an unpredictable fashion, The “search words” should provide a quick path to the

current link.

Speaker on this program representing that program



(Continued) Adelaide Coastal Waters StudyAdelaide Coastal Waters Study

Program site:Program site:http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/acws.htmlhttp://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/ (more technical of the two)

Current Report:Current Report:http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/pdfs/acwsnewsno5.pdfhttp://www.environment.sa.gov.au/epa/pdfs/acwsnewsno5.pdf

Methods:Methods: http://www.clw.csiro.au/acws/IS1.html Search words:Search words: adelaide coastal waters study; acws au Speaker:Speaker: David Fox, University of Adelaide



(Continued) Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP)

Program site:Program site:http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/

Current Report:Current Report:

http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/AnnualReport2003.pdf Methods:Methods: http://

www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ScienceProtocols.htm Search words:Search words: alberta biodiversity monitoring

program; abmp ca Speaker:Speaker: None, unfortunately



(Continued) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Program (EMAP)Program site:

http://www.epa.gov/emap/ Current Report: http://

www.epa.gov/maia/html/maha.html Methods: http://www.epa.gov/emap/html/www.epa.gov/emap/html/

pubs/docs/groupdocs/surfwatr/field/ws_abs.html pubs/docs/groupdocs/surfwatr/field/ws_abs.html Search words: epa environmental monitoring assessment

program; emap epa Speaker here:Speaker here: Tony Olsen Tony Olsen



(Continued) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)

Program site:Program site: http://fia.fs.fed.us/

Current Report:Current Report: http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/

(for example)

Methods:Methods: http://fia.fs.fed.us/FIAProgramInformation.htm

(accessible at this link)

Search words:Search words: forest inventory analysis; FIA USDA

Speaker here:Speaker here: Mike Williams Mike Williams



(Continued)

National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Program site:Program site: http://www.usda.gov/nass/

Current Reports:Current Reports:http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/catalog2004.pdf Research:Research: http://

www.nass.usda.gov/research/SERS.htm

Search words:Search words: national agricultural statistical service; nass

Speaker here: Carol HouseSpeaker here: Carol House



(Continued)

National Park Inventory and Monitoring Program Program site:Program site: http://

science.nature.nps.gov/im/index.htm

Current Reports:Current Reports: http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/reports.htm

Methods:Methods: http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/standards.htm

Search words:Search words: national park monitoring natural resources; nps im

Speaker here: Steve FancySpeaker here: Steve Fancy



(Continued)

National Resources Inventory( NRI) Program site:Program site:

http://http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/NRIwww.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/NRI// Current Report:Current Report:

http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/land/nri02/http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/technical/land/nri02/ Methods:Methods:

http://http://www.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#NusserandGoebwww.statlab.iastate.edu/survey/nri/#NusserandGoebelel

Search words:Search words: national resources inventory; web path: nrcs to technical to NRI

Speakers here:Speakers here: Wayne Fuller & Jeff Goebel



(Continued)

National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Program site:Program site: http://wetlands.fws.gov/ Current Report:Current Report:

http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands8http://training.fws.gov/library/Pubs9/wetlands86-97_highres.pdf6-97_highres.pdf

Methods:Methods: documented in above report Search words:Search words: national wetlands inventory Speaker here:Speaker here: Tom Dahl



(Continued) LEARNING MATERIALS RELATED TO

ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLING (From a course at Oregon State University)(From a course at Oregon State University) ST571

http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/stat/urquhart/st571/index.htm

Presentation materials from talks presented here will be available at http://www.stat.colostate.edu/starmap

Opportunities->meetings; publications -> presentations; Learning materials

by N. Scott Urquhart Oregon State University, USA and Anthony R. Olsen US EPA

Documents

Transcript of by N. Scott Urquhart Oregon State University, USA and Anthony R. Olsen US EPA