by Jordi FerrerGrid...by Jordi Ferrer [email protected] Managing Director vortexfdc.com...
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Transcript of by Jordi FerrerGrid...by Jordi Ferrer [email protected] Managing Director vortexfdc.com...
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Vortex Products Timeline
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Vortex Products Timeline
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Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
Vortex FORECAST: Why?
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Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
Vortex FORECAST: Why?
Different necessities
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Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
Vortex FORECAST: Industry expectations
· Very short-term forecast
Different necessities
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Vortex FORECAST: Industry expectations
· Days ahead forecast
Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
· Very short-term forecast
Different necessities
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Vortex FORECAST: Industry expectations
· 10-days ahead forecast
· Very short-term forecast
Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
· Days ahead forecast
Different necessities
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VORTEX system is a hybrid physical-statistical scheme.
Vortex FORECAST: Approach
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Vortex FORECAST: Approach
· HRES-ECMWF: 0,125x0,125 deg²,10-days ahead
Forecast are generated by calibrating physical input from global/mesoscale NWP models against historical
wind farm data.
VORTEX system is a hybrid physical-statistical scheme.
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Vortex FORECAST: Approach
· HRES-ECMWF: 0,125x0,125 deg²,10-days ahead
· GFS - NOAA: 0,5x0,5 deg², 2 weeks ahead
VORTEX system is a hybrid physical-statistical scheme.
Forecast are generated by calibrating physical input from global/mesoscale NWP models against historical
wind farm data.
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Vortex FORECAST: Approach
VORTEX system is a hybrid physical-statistical scheme.
Forecast are generated by calibrating physical input from global/mesoscale NWP models against historical
wind farm data.
vortexfdc.com
Vortex FORECAST: Approach
VORTEX system is a hybrid physical-statistical scheme.
Forecast are generated by calibrating physical input from global/mesoscale NWP models against historical
wind farm data.
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Vortex FORECAST: Set Up
Necessary to train the model:
· Nominal power production
· Wind farm location
· Historical real-time power production
· Historical real-time availability
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Vortex FORECAST: On/Off site data
What if NO historical DATA is available ?
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Vortex FORECAST: On/Off site data
What if NO historical DATA is available ?
NO reliable data or new Wind Farm
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Vortex FORECAST: On/Off site data
NO reliable data or new Wind Farm
What if NO historical DATA is available ?
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Vortex FORECAST: On/Off site data
What if NO historical DATA is available ?
Use of Synthetic data and Wind plant model
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Vortex FORECAST: On/Off site data
source: www.suzlon.com
Use of Synthetic data and Wind plant model
What if NO historical DATA is available ?
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Data assimilation
Data assimilation is in charge of integrating into a ddbb all the inputs needed by the system to perform training
and forecasting tasks.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Data assimilation
Data assimilation is in charge of integrating into a ddbb all the inputs needed by the system to perform training
and forecasting tasks.
Automatically download, pre-processed and quality asses data from NWP models (global and mesoscalar) and wind farms, prior to be included in the system.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
A multi-scheme statistical framework is used with several strategies: Single and Ensemble
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
A multi-scheme statistical framework is used with several strategies: Single and Ensemble
Implemented by combining classifications, (non-)linear regression, machine learning and clustering models
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
(Very) Short-Term forecast: (near) real-time updates of the wind farm data are available.
Real-time data
Forecast
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
(Very) Short-Term forecast: (near) real-time updates of the wind farm data are available.
Real-time data
Forecast
Several auto-regressive statistical models to generate the forecast for the 3-6 hours of the prediction
horizon are used.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
(Very) Short-Term forecast: (near) real-time updates of the wind farm data are available.
Several auto-regressive statistical models to generate the forecast for the 3-6 hours of the prediction
horizon are used.
vortexfdc.com
Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
(Very) Short-Term forecast: (near) real-time updates of the wind farm data are available.
Several auto-regressive statistical models to generate the forecast for the 3-6 hours of the prediction
horizon are used.
vortexfdc.com
Vortex FORECAST CORE: Statistical system
(Very) Short-Term forecast: (near) real-time updates of the wind farm data are available.
Several auto-regressive statistical models to generate the forecast for the 3-6 hours of the prediction
horizon are used.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Performance Tracker
Performance Tracker detects which forecast (single, ensemble) should be used for each situation, variables
and look-ahead period.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Performance Tracker
This is a time adaptive approach.
Performance Tracker detects which forecast (single, ensemble) should be used for each situation, variables
and look-ahead period.
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Vortex FORECAST CORE: Validation and Control
Validation and Control estimate the forecast performance and consistency.
VALIDATION& CONTROLVALIDATION& CONTROL
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Combination of up to 36 different algorithm in an attempt to deliver the best forecast current
technology can provide.
Based on downscale-modeling,
Vortex FORECAST: Features
based on statistical training only.
With historical data available or not with VORTEX Series
Client customize delivery
Accuracy and a fast response service for Grid Management and Operational and Maintenance.
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Vortex FORECAST : NIWE experience in Tamil Nadu
3 years collaboration with NIWE
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Vortex FORECAST : NIWE experience in Tamil Nadu
3 years collaboration with NIWE
107 SS individual forecast at Tamil Nadu
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Vortex FORECAST : NIWE experience in Tamil Nadu
3 years collaboration with NIWE
107 SS individual forecast at Tamil Nadu
Intraday, Day ahead and 10-days forecast
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Vortex FORECAST : NIWE experience in Tamil Nadu
Friendly interface to view individual SS forecast.
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Vortex FORECAST : NIWE experience in Tamil Nadu
· System customization for INDIA
Cooperation learning:
· Improving every monsoon
· Continuous training for machine learning
· Better historical data for better forecast
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Vortex FORECAST : OTHER experiences
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Vortex Solution
Wind & Site
Thank you
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Parc Tecnològic BarcelonaCarrer Marie Curie, 8-1408042, Barcelona, Spain
+34 933 285 [email protected]
BruxellesMiami
PuneBeijing
www.vortexfdc.com
Get in touch:[email protected]
Vortex FdC, S. L.
