By how much is pilot training impacting an airline´s ... · travel is safe: 1980-2001, incidents...
Transcript of By how much is pilot training impacting an airline´s ... · travel is safe: 1980-2001, incidents...
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B Y D R . W I L L I A M C O X
C E O, M A N A G E M E N T & E X C E L L E N C EAPATS Singapore | September 3-4, 2019
By how much is pilot training impacting an airline´s financial risk & value?
The Value for Safety VfS approach
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The financial impact of pilot training is hopelessly underrated
Suppose that every hour of high quality pilot training = $ 1 million increase in the value of an airline.
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Monitoring airline risk levels ⁓ earthquake prediction
Monitoring the financial impact of pilot training on the safety level of an airline is like predicting the risk of an earthquake happening.
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What are the financial impacts of pilot training?
Operating efficiency
Pilot qualification
Risk reduction
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EASA pilot training risk impact model RAPT
Risk “index” without financial impact
RAPT training quality indicators very useful for M&E Value for Safety method
Judges the quality and thoroughness of pilot training, not really its impact of airline risk levels
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Pilot Training
Impact on risk level of airline
$$$ impact on value of
airline
Pilot training can save an airline´s life & many human lives
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Safety incidents are rare…
Total safety incidents since 1918 is 11,164 (B3A). Yet air travel is safe: 1980-2001, incidents were 1.22/million departures
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…yet their financial impacts grave
Salam, Romel, 2012
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For example…
TransAsia paid $1.2 billion to victims as a result of two safety incidents and went bankrupt in 2016.
An emergency landing by a Southwest 737 in April , 2018, with one dead passenger cost the airline $100 million (CNN 2018)
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VALUE FOR SAFETY VfS approach
90 90.8 91.8 93 91 89 88 90.1 93 94 96 97.4
4550
5952
47 4957 60
68 67 68 68
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Impact of Pilot Training on Company Value
Company Valuein billions $
Pilot TrainingScore
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Accidents are always the results of causal chains
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Causal Chain Thinking: A key skill we look at
Develop CAUSAL CHAIN THINKING skills – same skill as used in playing chess; anticipating chains of causes & effects.
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Training under duress
Train Causal Chain Thinking under more realistic conditions e.g. sleep Deprivation, cognitive overload, duress, fatigue, human skills, technical knowledge)
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Current training approaches
Causal training approach Preventive training approach
Adjusted training
Avoid known risksTraining known
situations
Database analysis
HFACS Probability
Event
Data collection
Adjusted training
Participating pilots Event prevention
Measurement & reporting
Training impacts Applying training
Preventive skills training
Realistic trainingNASA AvSRS, REC,
OGHFA, PEAR
Amost training approaches do not develop causal chain thinking
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Achieving your “Training Sweetspot”?
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Training Sweetspot
Total…Total…
Highest training impact on risk, impact
Training costs
The “Training Sweetspot” is where training costs are the lowest in relation to training´s impact on risk reduction
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Thank You & Questions
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