Major hazards and severe weather in Kenya

byBernard ChanzuPresented at swfdp at Entebbe

Kenya Meteorological DepartmentP.O. Box 30259 – 00100

Nairobi, Kenya Tel: 254-20-3876957/60

E-mail: shanzu@meteo.go.ke

Background of KMD Established in line with the World

Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Convention as a colonial service for East Africa way back in 1929

KMD became a Department of the Government of Kenya in 1977 after the collapse of the East African Community (EAC).

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The Main Objective of KMD To provide accurate and timely weather and

climate information and services required for: the safety of life; protection of property; and conservation of the natural

environment

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HAZARDS A potentially damaging physical event,

human activity or phenomenon with a potential to cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption of life, environmental degradation among other effect.

These occur all over the world and are, on their own not harmful. However when these natural hazards interact with people, they are likely to cause damage of varying magnitude resulting in a disaster.

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Major hazards in KenyaKenya experiences a number of natural

hazards, the most common being weather related, including:

Heavy rains leading to floods, Dry spells leading to droughts,Heavy rains leading landslides, lightening/thunderstorms, Extreme temperatures leading to frostDry spells leading to wild fires, Strong winds leading to destructions. Fog leads to highway accidents

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Hazards in KenyaWeather hazards have had adverse effects on

most communities in KenyaThe Arid and Semi-arid Lands (ASALs) are

prone to harsh weather conditionsDrought is the most prevalent natural hazard

in Kenya affecting mainly Eastern, North Eastern, parts of Rift Valley and coast Provinces.

Floods seasonally affect various parts of the country especially along the flood plains in the Lake Victoria basin and in Tana river while landslides are experienced during the long rains season running from March to May especially in Murang’a district and areas surrounding the Mount Kenya region.

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Kenya Hazard Map (UNDP PROJECT 2004)

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Common hazards in prone areas Drought prone provinces Eastern, North Eastern, coast, parts of Rift

Valley Flood prone areas Budalangi, Nyando, Rachuonyo, Tanariver Landslide prone zones Muranga district, parts of Kiambu, Thika,

Maragua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua and areas around mount Kenya region.

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Recent eventsIn the recent past these hazards have

increased in number, frequency and complexity.

El Nino rains (1997-1998) had profoundly negative implications on the economy of Kenya and the livelihoods of its population

Very heavy rainfall was recorded over most parts of the country in April 2012 and the beginning of May 2012, this resulted into flooding, landslides and land subsiding in the R. Valley causing huge galley like opening on the land surface

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Forecasting severe weather in Kenya

Mandate of Kenya Meteorological Department

1) Enables Decision-Making in Planning, Preparedness and Good Disaster Management;

2) Enhances Safety and Protection of Life; 3) Helps reduce damage to Property, Infrastructure and

the Environment

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Capacity

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METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Data Observational systems and network; Data telecommunication systems and network; Data procession, analysis and forecasting systems; Product and information dissemination systems; Human resource capital

CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKSynoptic Stations:– 38 manned 24-hr Surface Synoptic Stations, – 17 agro-meteorological stations– 4 marine Tidal gauges with automatic Met sensors.– 1 Upper-Air station in Nairobi

Automatic Weather Observing Systems:─ 36Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs)─ 3 Airport Weather Observation Systems (AWOSs) at JKIA, Wilson & MIA─ 17 Hydromet AWSs for water catchment areas

Rainfall Stations:– Over 1000 rainfall stations most of which are operated by Voluntary Observers

Lightning and Thunderstorms detection 4 Lightning and thunderstorm detection systems at Nairobi,

Mombasa, Kisumu and EldoretRemote Sensing

3 Satellite ground receiving stations:2 for MSG; and1 for NOAA satellite data

METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE & CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK

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Existing Stations

In process

Tools used for server weather forecasting at KMD

Rely more on model outputs COSMO 7 km (ran at KMD twice daily) 3 days forecast WRF 7km (ran at KMD twice daily) 3 days forecastRSMC web (very useful of late)GFSUK Met productsECMWFUS Navy fleet Numerical Meteorology and

oceanographic (FNMO) Model for Marine The visualizations is combined with satellite images from

MSG for short range forecasting

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Thresholds Winds in excess of 20m/sRains in excess of 50mm/dayRough sea: Wave Height of 3.0 – 4.0 m

……….. (≈ 9.0 – 12.0 ft)Example of our advisory

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challengesdata Capacity Structures for advisory to the public Rapid developing systems

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THANK YOU