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But what about the ACS?But what about the ACS?
What is the American What is the American Community Survey?Community Survey?
Replacement of the Long FormReplacement of the Long Form
Continuous Survey MethodologyContinuous Survey Methodology
Conducted MonthlyConducted Monthly
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According to the Census Bureau According to the Census Bureau The ACS is…The ACS is…
A large, continuous demographic surveyA large, continuous demographic survey• Produces annual and multi-year estimates of Produces annual and multi-year estimates of
the characteristics of the population and the characteristics of the population and housinghousing
• Produces Produces characteristicscharacteristics, , not not a populationa population countcount
• Produces information for small areas Produces information for small areas including tracts, block groups and including tracts, block groups and population subgroups - updated every yearpopulation subgroups - updated every year
• Key component of reengineered 2010 Key component of reengineered 2010 censuscensus
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ACS FactsACS Facts
About 1 in 40 About 1 in 40 Households Sampled per yearHouseholds Sampled per year
250,000 Households Sampled 250,000 Households Sampled per monthper month
Same Transportation questions Same Transportation questions as 2000 Long Formas 2000 Long Form
Decennial Long Form is History, Kaput, Gone!Decennial Long Form is History, Kaput, Gone!
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But why change and have But why change and have an ACS?an ACS?
Eliminate the Census Long Form for Eliminate the Census Long Form for 2010 and Thereafter2010 and Thereafter
Eliminate the peak in Congressional Eliminate the peak in Congressional fundingfunding
Eliminate the peak in hiring andEliminate the peak in hiring and training training Census takersCensus takers
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How does the ACS work?How does the ACS work?
Three Methods of Data CollectionThree Methods of Data Collection
1. Mail1. Mail Self-administered mail-out/mail-backSelf-administered mail-out/mail-back
2. Telephone2. Telephone Computer Assisted Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI)Telephone Interviewing (CATI)
3. Personal Visits3. Personal Visits Computer Assisted Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPIPersonal Interviewing (CAPI) ) 1:31:3
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When will it start?When will it start?It already hasIt already has
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American Community Survey Data Release Timetable
Type of Data
Population
Size of Area
Data for the Previous Year Released In the Summer of:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+
Annual Estimates
65,000+
3-year averages
20,000+
5-year averages
Down to Census Tract and Block Group
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1
Example 1: Percent Foreign Born Population Areas with 65,000+ population
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Single-year estimates 20.0 21.2 23.3 28.6 32.6 35.1
3-year estimates (2005 – 2007) 21.5
3-year estimates (2006 – 2008) 24.8
3-year estimates (2007 – 2009) 28.6
5-year estimates (2005 – 2009) 25.9
3-year estimates (2008 – 2010) 32.2
5-year estimates (2006 – 2010) 28.9
Aug. 2008Aug. 2008
Aug. 2010Aug. 2010In August of In August of 2006 you got 2006 you got
2005 data2005 data
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3
Example 1: Percent Foreign Born Population Areas with population between 20,000 and 65,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3-year estimates (2005 – 2007) 21.5
3-year estimates (2006 – 2008) 24.8
3-year estimates (2007 – 2009) 28.6
5-year estimates (2005 – 2009) 25.9
3-year estimates (2008 – 2010) 32.2
5-year estimates (2006 – 2010) 28.9
Aug. 2008Aug. 2008
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April 1 August Dec. April 1 August Dec. (PL 94-171) (PL 94-171)
5
Example 1: Percent Foreign Born Population Areas with less than 20,000 population
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5-year estimates (2005 – 2009) 25.9
5-year estimates (2006 – 2010) 28.9
Aug. 2010Aug. 2010
20102010
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Decennial CensusDecennial Census ACSACS
Sample: 1 in 6 Hhlds Sample: 1 in 6 Hhlds
(17% Sample)(17% Sample)
Sample: 1 in approx 40 Sample: 1 in approx 40 households each yearhouseholds each year
(2.5%/yr 12.5% @ 5 yrs)(2.5%/yr 12.5% @ 5 yrs)
Time reference: April 1, Time reference: April 1, 2000 or April 1, 20102000 or April 1, 2010
(Last Week)(Last Week)
Time reference: Time reference: Continuous including all Continuous including all 12 months12 months
One time data collection One time data collection every 10 yearsevery 10 years
Requires accumulation Requires accumulation over multiple years for over multiple years for small area reportingsmall area reporting
Main differences between Census Long Form Main differences between Census Long Form and ACSand ACS
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Some Emerging IssuesSome Emerging Issues
People might be counted twicePeople might be counted twice, e.g. once at , e.g. once at summer cabin and once at a “permanent home”. summer cabin and once at a “permanent home”. Or once at university and once at parent’s home.Or once at university and once at parent’s home.
Areas with seasonal populationsAreas with seasonal populations, e.g. due to , e.g. due to “snow bird” migration, and due to school “snow bird” migration, and due to school enrollments, with housing occupancy that varies enrollments, with housing occupancy that varies from 95% to 40% might show up as 80%.from 95% to 40% might show up as 80%.
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Mail back rates from Minority Mail back rates from Minority populations are significantly lowerpopulations are significantly lower
Source: C2SS test
Tracts with 75% or more of Tracts with 75% or more of a population reporting…a population reporting…
% of mail-% of mail-backsbacks
WhiteWhite 60.5%60.5%
African AmericanAfrican American 34.9%34.9%
American Indian/Alaska American Indian/Alaska Native Native
16.6%16.6%
AsianAsian 58.6%58.6%
HispanicHispanic 34.2%34.2%
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Different Non Response Follow-up Different Non Response Follow-up rates based on mail back returnsrates based on mail back returns
That is, in areas with low mail-That is, in areas with low mail-back returns, a higher NRFU back returns, a higher NRFU rate will be implementedrate will be implemented
Thus, standard errors will be Thus, standard errors will be more consistent across more consistent across neighborhoodsneighborhoods
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Sample ErrorSample Error is larger because the number of is larger because the number of census forms collected each year are smaller. census forms collected each year are smaller.
Changes of plus or minus 2% may be due to Changes of plus or minus 2% may be due to Sample Sample ErrorError and do not reflect measurable change. and do not reflect measurable change.
Understanding Sample ErrorUnderstanding Sample Error
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Statistical Significance TestsStatistical Significance Tests
Standard Error = Margin of Error / 1.65
But what about MOEs for 2000 data?But what about MOEs for 2000 data?
22 (SE(B))(SE(A))
BAZ
90%
90%
Confidence
Confidence
Comparing ACS directly to 2000 Data can be iffyComparing ACS directly to 2000 Data can be iffy
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http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/doc/sf3.pdfhttp://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/doc/sf3.pdf
Chapter 8: Accuracy of the DataChapter 8: Accuracy of the Data
Estimate Standard ErrorsEstimate Standard Errors
Adjust for Survey Design Adjust for Survey Design Factors - Table CFactors - Table C
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Things to consider when Things to consider when trying to compare ACS directly trying to compare ACS directly
to Decennial data to Decennial data
SeasonalitySeasonality 12 months instead of "April 1") (different jobs 12 months instead of "April 1") (different jobs and workers, especially in summerand workers, especially in summer
Group QuartersGroup Quarters currently not in 2005 ACS currently not in 2005 ACS
Non-responseNon-response follow-up differencesfollow-up differences
Data collection periodData collection period ACS is very long, compared to ACS is very long, compared to
very short in decennialvery short in decennial
Sample Sizes and MOEsSample Sizes and MOEs ACS is about 1 in 40 households ACS is about 1 in 40 households compared to about 1 in 6compared to about 1 in 6
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Data Release ScheduleData Release Schedule
1-year data1-year data in 2006 in 2006 (every year thereafter) (every year thereafter)
3-year data3-year data in 2008 in 2008 ( (every year thereafter)every year thereafter)
5-year data5-year data in 2009 in 2009 ( (every year thereafter)every year thereafter)
Plus the within-year release schedulesPlus the within-year release schedules
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Within-Year Data Release Within-Year Data Release Schedule for 2005 DataSchedule for 2005 Data
August 15, 2006August 15, 2006Demographic and SocialDemographic and Social CharacteristicsCharacteristics
August 29, 2006August 29, 2006Economic Characteristics; Public Use Microdata FileEconomic Characteristics; Public Use Microdata File
October 3, 2006October 3, 2006Housing Characteristics; Narrative Profiles; Housing Characteristics; Narrative Profiles; Workplace Workplace Base TablesBase Tables
November 14, 2006November 14, 2006Selected Population Profiles Selected Population Profiles
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August 15th August 15th Demographic and Social Demographic and Social
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August 29thAugust 29th
Economic Characteristics Economic Characteristics
and PUMS tooand PUMS too
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October 3rdOctober 3rd Housing ---- Etcetera Housing ---- Etcetera
i.e. Workplace Tablesi.e. Workplace Tables
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October 3rdOctober 3rd Etcetera Etcetera
… … For Workplace GeographyFor Workplace Geography
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November 14November 14 Selected Population Profiles Selected Population Profiles
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Where do I get ACS?Where do I get ACS?
FactFinderFactFinder
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There is a lot hereThere is a lot here
Even built in significance testsEven built in significance tests
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Note difference between DC and NJNote difference between DC and NJ
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A place to start mining ACSA place to start mining ACS
Go to Detailed TablesGo to Detailed Tables
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Check out all the TabsCheck out all the Tabs
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Pick Your GeographyPick Your Geography
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State . . .State . . .
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Places . . .Places . . .
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Then Tables . . .Then Tables . . .
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Note the TabsNote the Tabs
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Keyword SearchKeyword Search
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““B” and “C” TablesB” and “C” Tables
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Full Table – Full Table – PASSED FILTERINGPASSED FILTERING
Statistically Statistically too Smalltoo Small
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Collapsed TableCollapsed Table
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You Can Also Download the ResultsYou Can Also Download the Results
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Download Options . . .Download Options . . .
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My SelectionMy Selection
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What I took homeWhat I took home
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1. Resident Person Information 1. Resident Person Information
2. Resident Household Characteristics2. Resident Household Characteristics
3. Worker/Workplace Data3. Worker/Workplace Data
ACS CTPP Data ProfilesACS CTPP Data Profiles
Brand NewBrand New
CTPP Data ProductCTPP Data Product
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States, Large Cities, MSAsStates, Large Cities, MSAs
Resident Person Information for…Resident Person Information for…
Mode to workMode to work
Travel Time to workTravel Time to work
Departure Time for workDeparture Time for work
Mode to work by Travel Time Mode to work by Travel Time
Mode to work by Average Travel TimeMode to work by Average Travel Time
Florida Statewide dataFlorida Statewide data
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Mode to work by Vehicles AvailableMode to work by Vehicles Available
Vehicles Available in HouseholdsVehicles Available in Households
Household Size by Vehicles AvailableHousehold Size by Vehicles Available
Vehicles Available by Workers in Household Vehicles Available by Workers in Household
Persons in Households by Workers in HouseholdPersons in Households by Workers in Household
The Nation, States, All PUMAs,The Nation, States, All PUMAs,Counties and Places over 65kCounties and Places over 65k
Resident Household Characteristics for.. Resident Household Characteristics for..
Wisconsin Statewide dataWisconsin Statewide data
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States, Counties andStates, Counties andPlaces over 65kPlaces over 65k
Worker / Workplace Data for…Worker / Workplace Data for…
Total Workers -- Travel Time to work -- Mode to WorkTotal Workers -- Travel Time to work -- Mode to Work
Get ACS CTPP Data Profiles Get ACS CTPP Data Profiles online or from the Class online or from the Class Workbook CD Workbook CD
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On-going concerns about ACSOn-going concerns about ACS
• Will the sample be sufficientWill the sample be sufficient for small for small geographic area reporting? Will tract and BG geographic area reporting? Will tract and BG and TAZ reporting occur after 60 months of and TAZ reporting occur after 60 months of data collection?data collection?
• Will Congress continue to fundWill Congress continue to fund the survey the survey continuously, especially if CB asks for continuously, especially if CB asks for increasing budgets to meet the sample size increasing budgets to meet the sample size requirements? (or will CB decrease the requirements? (or will CB decrease the sample size, resulting in loss of small area sample size, resulting in loss of small area tabulation?) Group Quarterstabulation?) Group Quarters
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What Were the Transportation What Were the Transportation Concerns in 2005?Concerns in 2005?
• Will there be flow data? Will there be flow data? Flows are in serious Flows are in serious jeopardy due to thresholds and disclosure jeopardy due to thresholds and disclosure proofing?proofing?
• Will there be a CTPP like package? Will there be a CTPP like package? Who will Who will organize it, negotiate with the CB and contract organize it, negotiate with the CB and contract with the CB. Timing of release? Cost?with the CB. Timing of release? Cost?
• Will there be TAZs? Will there be TAZs? How might they change, How might they change, what tables will be available, for what what tables will be available, for what geographies?geographies?
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On-Demand Technical Assistance
$930,000
Training $625,000
Research $920,000
Data Products $2,980,000
Oversight Activities $465,000
TOTAL $5,920,003
ConsolidatedCTPP Purchase
AASHTO SCOPAASHTO SCOP Census Data Work GroupCensus Data Work Group
CTPP Technical GroupCTPP Technical Group
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• Will there be flow data? Will there be flow data? Flows are in serious Flows are in serious jeopardy due to thresholds and disclosure jeopardy due to thresholds and disclosure proofing?proofing?
• Will there be a CTPP like package? Will there be a CTPP like package? Who will Who will organize it, negotiate with the CB and contract organize it, negotiate with the CB and contract with the CB. Timing of release? Cost?with the CB. Timing of release? Cost?
• Will there be TAZs? Will there be TAZs? How might they change, How might they change, what tables will be available, for what what tables will be available, for what geographies?geographies?
Current ExpectationsCurrent Expectations
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NCHRP 8-48 Guidebook NCHRP 8-48 Guidebook Using the American Community Using the American Community Survey Data for Transportation Planning Survey Data for Transportation Planning ($350K) ($350K) Expected May 2007Expected May 2007
NCHRP 8-36 Project NCHRP 8-36 Project Disclosure Avoidance Techniques Disclosure Avoidance Techniques to Improve ACS Datato Improve ACS Data ($75) Expected Next Year($75) Expected Next Year
Census Geography and Census Geography and Participant Statistical Areas Participant Statistical Areas ProgramProgram — Hoping to have TAZs included — Hoping to have TAZs included
ACS Use Capacity Building ACS Use Capacity Building Peer ExchangePeer Exchange, SCOP , SCOP Working Group/FHWA, Spring 2007Working Group/FHWA, Spring 2007
ACS related activities ACS related activities currently underwaycurrently underway
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Census Data for Transportation PlanningCensus Data for Transportation PlanningPreparing for the Future Preparing for the Future
Irvine, CaliforniaIrvine, CaliforniaMay 11-13, 2005 May 11-13, 2005
http://www.trb.org/conferences/censusdatahttp://www.trb.org/conferences/censusdata
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Now let’s go do someNow let’s go do someStatistical Significance Testing!Statistical Significance Testing!