1. Prepared by:Team 1Michele, Lofton , Misty,and Liana

2. The current condition of theeconomy, in our Option: Possibly critical America has an huge deficit. [http://zfacts.com/p/461.html]National Debt Clock Our team believes the economy is coming back slowly. As a result some our teams family situations are changing inpositive ways. While others are seeking wealth elsewhere. Loftons dad is in real-estate and seems to have more work these days. Micheles family who lost her government job several years ago has been looking the last four years is now getting calls from recruiters for good paying jobs instead of small businesses who were not able to pay her much. Another part of Micheles family made 1 million last year as Sub-Contractors but are leaving to morocco for Contracts in the desert of North Africa, they are not getting rich here even handling that type of money. 3. WHAT THE ECONOMY IS DOINGTODAY The Economy is trying to recover, as they analysts say it isturning around slowly. HEADLINES: When the president entered office on Jan. 20, 2009,the economy was issue No. 1. It still is today. Heres alook at where the economy stood then and whatschanged since.[http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/news/economy/1206/gallery.Obama-economy/index.html?iid=SF_E_Highlight] Consumer Confidence Climbing. Growth up. Expansion up.No inflation pressures in the Feds eyes.[http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/ ] 4. What is an economic indicator:"Business Indicators statistic about the economy. Covers selected quarterly data and offers a One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. used to compare to past quarters and years in in the economy. 5. Why are Economic Indicators Important? major shift and trends understanding outcomes of problematic events, seeing the unknown. Put ting numerical meaningful values. The only way to see for a fact documentedproof of: What is going on, what is gong tot happen, this shows our expectations,makes order out of chaos. We know exactly how many, the probability of events. To try to describe the operations in the role of the aggregate,. Whether to bet on thisor that outcome, Measure frequencies, challenge our intuitions, View informationhistorically, to put into context and subtext, ect. See [www.pedictwise.com ] . To Speculate, more accurate than the polls or the news.[ www.makingsence.com] PaulSolomon. Every week there are dozens of economic surveys and indicators released. In the past,only professionals and economists had the advantage in receiving this type of datain a timely fashion. Fortunately, the internet has changed this giving everyone access.Economic indicators can have a huge impact on the market; therefore, knowing howto interpret and analyze them is important for all investors. Markets use information to set prices. Investors use all the information at theirdisposal to make decisions. If a set of economic indicators suggest that the economy isgoing to do better or worse in the future than they had previously expected, they maydecide to change their investing strategy. Read more:[http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/#ixzz29Eq9FEtl] 6. How do indicators help policy makers makedecisions? All four indices are aggregated to a Policy Performance Index, PPI, and presented as a linechart organized in concentric graphs. the size of each segment of the graphs reflect theimportance (the weight) of the issues for politics or business; each segment reflects thejudgment of current policy performance on a scale, to see the good and the bad. Read more:[http://esl.jrc.it/envind/idm/idm_e_09.htm] Certainly, the decision of the voter will not be taken on the basis of indicators alone. Manyother factors play a role. As they reveal the success or failure of policy makers decisions. There is no causal link between policy decisions or company will take. Indicators instead punish bad decisions, and reward good ones. Decisions come that comealong with the indicators. Pitfalls: If the media misuses GDP as a measure of success; then it is possible any decision thatincreases GDP is viewed as good, even if it could decrease real welfare. We can look at our four indicators in business and compare their similarities and differences. 7. How do they work with the CircularFlow Model? A visual model of the economy that illustrates how households andbusinesses interact through markets for products and markets forresources. The top half, represents product markets: Households interactwith business firms to supply labor, for income, and use their incomes tobuy their goods and services. The first interaction occurs in markets forresources, second occurs in markets for products.[http://econperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/04/circular-flow-diagram.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_flow_of_income[ Households allow Financial sector Businesses to hold savings. Pay tax(direct & indirect) to the Government.[http://wiki.answers.com/Q/In_the_circular_flow_of_the_economy_what_do_households_do [ http://books.google.com/books?id=TllDu7ibouwC&pg=PA105&lpg=PA105&dq=capacity+utilization+and+circular+flow+model.&source=bl&ots=cOzferUWoX&sig=Y9nmbURZgTfwhZHZFb8vfJAj88k&hl=en&sa=X&ei=1lF8UJ7qIIPo9ASfyIDwDg&ved=0CB0Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=capacity%20utilization%20and%20circular%20flow%20model.&f=false 8. How do they work with Aggregate Supply andAggregate Demand Models? Aggregate demand and supply measure the total demand and supply of goods and services across anentire economy. Aggregate demand simply means spending spending by households, businesses and governmentsfor consumption goods and services or investments in structures, machinery and equipment. findingsome way to create jobs and stimulate growth. But the truth is that there really isnt much we can do.The only policy that will really help is an increase in aggregate demand. At the moment, businessesdont need to invest because their biggest problem is a lack of consumer demand. Nonfinancial businesses are now sitting on close to $2 trillion in liquid assets that could be investedimmediately if there was an increase in sales, and banks have $1.5 trillion of excess reserves that couldbe lent as well. Fiscal policy could raise velocity and growth by getting money moving throughout the economy. Butsince that is not feasible, the Fed is the only game in town. Joseph Gagnon, a former Fedeconomist, says that it should immediately increase the money supply by $2 trillion and promise tokeep increasing it until the economy has turned around. The right policy can be debated, but theimportant thing is for policy makers to stop obsessing about debt and focus instead on raisingaggregate demand. Read More: [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/its-the-aggregate-demand-stupid/ ] Under aggregate analysis, when aggregate demand rises faster than aggregate supply, inflation rises.Lagging aggregate demand, meanwhile, may be a sign of an economic recession.[http://www.ehow.com/facts_5312128_aggregate-economic-analysis.html] 9. Discussing Business Indicators Capacity use % Manufacturing Orders $ (PMI) Composite Index of Conditions % Wholesale Sales $ 10. Explain in detail Capacity Utilization indicator: Capicity Utilization: Nations produceive capacity 3 bullets Otput: The extent to which an enterprise or a nationactually uses its installed productive capacity.Thus, it refers to the relationship between actualoutput that is produced with the installedequipment and the potential output which could 11. *DEMAND* *SUPPLY*Consumers willing and able to buy Producers willing and able toproduce andmake available for sale Law of Demand: at each of a series of possible prices during a specific period.As Price increases,Demand decreasesDETERMINANTS: Law of Supply:Taste or Preference5As Price increases,Pquantity supplied increasesNumber of Buyers SurplusR 4 DETERMINANTS: NOTResource PricesIncome I Normal3 Equilibrium Technology InferiorCPrice & QuantityTaxes/SubsidiesPrice of Related Goods E 2Substitute ShortagePrices of Other Goods/ServicesComplementary1NOT Producer ExpectationsIndependent($)Number of Suppliers in poolConsumer Expectations0 2 4 6 8 10 1214 16 PriceQUANTITY Income(in thousands) 12. The monthly 5 year GDP including the recession[http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_monthly_real_gdp/chart#series=type%3Aindicator%2Cid%3Aus_monthly_real_gdp%2Ccalc%3A&format=real&recessions=false&zoom=5&startDate=&endDate= ] 13. What makes up the capacity utilization indicator? The capacity utilization rate measures the proportion of plant andequipment used in production by the manufacturing, mining, electric andgas utilizes industries. Used as an indicator of inflation, especially when it consistently climbsabove the 84% level. When factories operate this close to fullcapacity, companies are more likely to raise prices. Capacity utilization also reveals employment trends. Factories tend tohire more people or to have employees work more overtime hourswhen production is at peak levels. A businesses plant and equipment do effect short run fluctuations in demand and they can be used at different capacity utilizations. For maximum profits. Read more here: [http://info.wsj.com/classroom/Indicators/def.data.html] 14. Where and when is the capacity utilization indicator published? released monthly Revised and is periodically revised come out 16 days after the month ends . directly from the Federal Reserve. 15. released monthlyRevised and isperiodically revisedcome out 16 days afterthe month ends .directly from theFederal Reserve. 16. Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index ofindustrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilizationat the end of March 2013. The revised IP indexes will incorporate detailed data from the 2011 AnnualSurvey of Manufactures, by the U.S. Census. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic andnonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2011 will also be incorporated. The update will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either productdata or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition,the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Anymodifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry willaffect the index from 1972 to the present. 17. How reliable is the capacity utilization indicator? A reliable indicator of Inflation. Depends on the extent of the variation of the system. I is A Time Cost Trade off. 18. What is the significance of the capacity utilization indicator concerning theeconomys position? define current approaches in an ever changing worldmarket. (TALKING POINTS) compare to alternative methods of utilization and to different countries. (TALKING POINTS) resource is Exploited or over-exploited. Need to know if a business / For Example: Our fishing industry. Leading indicator : meaning it usually changes before the economy as a whole changes.[1] They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. 19. By itself, what does the capacity utilization indicator tell yourteam about what the economy is doing? Growing, stagnating, ordeclining in the long term. DECLININGRECESSION Like Flocculating, lack of demand. Plenty of supply. Why war decrease our business sends our resources away. Measuring domestic output. Know economic pulse- measure and explain production is at present level(short term). And measuring GDP. Slope of a line how quickly somethingchanges. Independent variable cause or source. Dependant variable outcomeor effect. Calc slop of the line y= mx+ b. Or measure productivity. CAUSES: Transportation, War, Politics, MoneySupply. 20. Describe the activity, according to the data your team gathered, of this capacityutilization indicator. Example: Industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August after having risen 0.5 percent in July. Hurricane Isaac IN 2011 restrained output in the Gulf Coast region at the end of August, reducing the rate of change in total industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent in August after having risen 0.4 percent in both June and July. Precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the hurricane contributed to a drop of 1.8 percent in the output of mines for August. WHICH Led r:The output of utilities declined 3.6 percent. At 96.8 percent of its2007 average, total industrial production in August was 2.8 percent above itsyear-earlier level. Therfore Capacity utilization for total industry moved down 1.0 percentagepoint to 78.2 percent, a rate 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ ] 21. Notes: Capacity Utilization is up for a second month, pushing past analysts expectations to stand atthe highest level in more than five years, according to the UMich/Reuters sentiment index; the gaugerose to 83.1, the highest level since September 2007. [http://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics [(Market Watch) Producer prices climbed sharply in September for the second month as gasolineprices jumped, Producer prices rose 1.1% in September after an increase of 1.7% in August, the LaborDepartment said. The core wholesale price index, which excludes food and energy prices, was flat inSeptember after a 0.2% gain in the prior month. Economists surveyed by Market Watch had expecteda 1.0% rise in the headline PPI and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. [See Market Watchscomprehensive economic calendar. ]The gain in producer prices, tracking the level of inflation at the wholesale level, was due tocontinued higher energy costs particularly gasoline. Energy prices advanced 4.7% in Septemberafter having risen 6.4% in August. A 9.8% gain in gasoline prices accounted for more than 80% of theSeptember gain, the Labor Department said.Food prices rose 0.2% in September, for the fourth consecutive increase. Analysts said the impact ofthe severe drought in the Midwest is slowly filtering up the production chain. [Read the fullgovernment report. ]Treasury prices [/quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 10_YEAR 0.00% ]turned up modestly and thedollar [/quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY -0.14% ]edged lower after the report was released. In the coreprice index, higher prices for light motor trucks were offset by declining prices for communicationsequipment.Compared with a year ago, the producer price index is up 2.1%, the highest level since March. Coreprices are up 2.3% over the past 12 months. [http://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics ]The economy AT A GLANCE 22. What is the significance of the indicator concerning the economys position? Lead, Lag or coincident? Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.[1] They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Stock market returns are a leading indicator: the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy as a whole declines and usually begins to improve before the general economy begins to recover from a slump. Other leading indicators include the index of consumer expectations, building permits, and the money supply.[citation needed] The Conference Board publishes a composite Leading Economic Index consisting of ten indicators designed to predict activity in the U. S. economy six to nine months in future. Lagging indicators are indicators that usually change after the economy as a whole does. Coincident indicators change at approximately the same time as the whole economy, therebyproviding information about the current state of the economy. There are many coincident economicindicators, such as Gross Domestic Product, industrial production, personal income and retail sales. Acoincident index may be used to identify, after the fact, the dates of peaks and troughs in the businesscycle.[2]There are four economic statistics comprising the Index of Coincident EconomicIndicators:[citation needed] Number of employees on non-agricultural payrolls Personal income less transferpayments Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sale See following for details http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator 23. By itself, what does the indicator tell your team about whatthe economy is doing? The economy started crashing about 2004 it started noticeably getting in trouble numbers became available. About 2010 it started to slowly climb out America eliminate the middle class. Middle class keeps balance. France they got real poor or real rich no middle class. Socialism makes poor poorer like a 3rd world country. We must learn to embrace the middle class it is going to be to deep of a dive. Crime goes up more. Haves and have nots hungry now. Steve jobs home was unlocked when alive they robed him. They walked right in you think he would understand because when our parents were young you cant leave now economy this way. Money not going to far. 3 dollar bead loaf. If people had notice food up salaries not keeping up with groceries. Go back 2 weeks later up 1 dollar but no raise at work. I have to buy and not prosper now. Product up and decreasing volume now. Now 123 pack now 8 pack still charging for 12. they getting richer we getting poorer. You must have a plan you must have a plan you will spend it all up. Pay into 401k wait to receive money. 10 20 yrs ago is not prospering now. Sams fill up car loaded down. Now a few bags. People of power will get richer. Leaders stop bickering power struggle dangerous. Highways falling apart. Put them to work. Political games suffer. Meet everyday. Put people to work. Drain systems in Jacksonville all stopped up floods. 3 day rain we flooded now. No workers gutting grass, clearing pipes ect. People do need help. Wal-Mart will keep you poor to not give benefits no full time work. Work at Wal-Mart be on Medicaid now. They control temp in store from Arkansas in all store, inefficient cant turn on air selfs keeping control. Millions earned low pay. Wal-Mart tried to hide the no insurance no benefits jobs. They will hold those 2hrs back. N reason to lack in this world plenty of resources. Share one hand wash another, give up some of the power. President 1 million dollars paid salary or so; but spent millions to get job because it is for the power. Commercial to get a job for 1 mill. Spent it is a mess, mess, mess. 24. Manufacturing Orders$70$60$50$40$30$20$10$-20132009 20102010 2012 25. Manufacturing Orders $60 $55 $50 2008 2009 $45 2010 $40 2011 2012 $35 $30 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 26. Explain in detail the indicator here: W To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes . 27. What makes up the indicaor? W To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes . 28. Is the indicator revised later or does it stand as it is reported? W To away with Highlights key words), but it makes . 29. What is the significance of the indicator concerning the economys position?Lead, Lag or coincident? Leading Indicator - Manufacturers new orders for consumer goods/materials . 30. How reliable is the indicator? W To away with Highlights key words), but it makes . 31. Where and when is the indicator published? W To away with key words), but it makes . 32. Describe the activity, according to the data your team gathered, of thisindicator. W To away with Highlights key words), but it makes . 33. By itself, what does the indicator tell your team about what the economy isdoing? W To away with Highlights key words), but it makes . 34. Composite Index Industrial Conditions % W To away with Highlights key words), but it makes . 35. Explain in detail the indicator here: To away with key words), but it makes . 36. What makes up the indicator? To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes . 37. Is the indicator revised later or does it standas it is reported? To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes. 38. How reliable is the indicator? To away with Highlights key words, but it makes. 39. Where and when is the indicatorpublished? To away with key words, but it makes. 40. Describe the activity, according to the datayour team gathered, of this indicator. To away with key words, but it makes. 41. By itself, what does the indicator tell yourteam about what the economy is doing? To away with key words, but it makes. 42. What is the significance of the indicator concerning theeconomys position? Lead, Lag or coincident? To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes. Leading Lagging or Coincident Which one: See following for details [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator] 43. WHOLE SALE SALES $ [http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_table1.pdf ] Release Date: On or around the 9th of the month Release Time:10am Eastern Standard Time Coverage: Two months prior (report released six weeks after period end) Released By: U.S. [Census Bureau] Latest Release: [http://www.census.gov/mwts/www/currentwhl.html] Strengths: There is an Annual Benchmark Report for Wholesale Trade released every spring that includes more detailed information such as annual salesestimates and gross margins for the industries that are sampled in the monthly report Provides a good snapshot of the "middle" of the supply chain for many industries - up the channel from manufacturing, but not yet retail. A good indicator of supply/demand imbalances Long time series (since 1946) available Data provided "raw" and with seasonal adjustment Weaknesses: Longer time lag than most Industry breakdowns not too specific The previously-released Durable Goods report will have already shed some light on wholesale results The Closing Line : Monthly Wholesale Trade Report is not potent enough to move the markets, but it is very useful when taken in contextwith other industry-specific indicators to gauge sales and demand; it is also helpful in predicting quarterly [gross domestic product] (GDP)figures.Read more: [http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/wholesaletrade.asp#ixzz29GFzqXT7]Read more:[ http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/wholesaletrade.asp#ixzz29GFhuzBp] 44. 7000000600000050000004000000Series130000002000000100000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 45. Explain in detail the indicator here: To away with key words, but it makes. 46. What makes up the indicator? To away with key words, but it makes. 47. Is the indicator revised later or does it stand as it isreported? To away with key words), but it makes. 48. What is the significance of the indicator concerning theeconomys position? Lead, Lag or coincident? To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes. Leading Lagging or Coincident Which one: See following for details [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator] 49. How reliable is the indicaor? To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes. 50. Where and when is the indicaor published? To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes. 51. Describe the activity, according to the data your teamgathered, of this indicaor. To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes. 52. PROVE OR DISPROVE 53. Suggest how to make the economy grow HERE 54. Definition of Business Indicator can be seen here[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator] 55. APA STYLE CITING RQUIREDWhat did you use to gather info?Which info or organizations did Info come form?Include entire sight if on the web so we can find it.Sight not used but read about the economy here:[http://www.aicpa.org/InterestAreas/BusinessIndustryAndGovernment/NewsAndPublications/DownloadableDocuments/3Q_2012_EOS_Slides.pdf]Helpful sights not used yet[www.bea.gov ] [www.uscensus.gov] 56. IndicatorsPaste these to the appropriate graphsISM Manufacturing Report on Business PMI History 1948-2012http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10752&navItemNumber=12961U.S. Manufacturing CorporationsSeasonally Adjusted Quarterly After-Tax Profits (Billions of dollars)2001-2012http://www2.census.gov/econ/qfr/current/qfr_mg.pdfEstimated Sales and Inventories of U.S. Merchant Wholesalers: 2002-2010http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_table1.pdfhttp://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_nomsbo_table2.pdf 57. Paper Grade SheetPaper: _________________ Student ___________________Our graphs in Excel:[https://skydrive.live.com/?id=C594EF5BE4ECE7A7!1443&cid=c594ef5be4ece7a7!/edit.aspx?cid=C594EF5BE4ECE7A7&resid=C594EF5BE4ECE7A7%211458&app=Excel ] 58. Capacity Use[www.whitehouse.gov ]2007[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2007-12/pdf/ECONI-2007-12-Pg17.pdf]2008[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2008-12/pdf/ECONI-2008-12-Pg17.pdf]2009[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2009-12/pdf/ECONI-2009-12-Pg17.pdf]2010[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2010-12/pdf/ECONI-2010-12-Pg17.pdf]2011[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2011-12/pdf/ECONI-2011-12-Pg17.pdf]2012[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2012-08/pdf/ECONI-2012-08-Pg17.pdf] [http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI- 2012-07/pdf/ECONI-2012-07-Pg17.pdf] 59. Comment Sheet 60. Michele Kirchaine kircml1@students.fscj.edu 300-5175Liana greatdane836@yahoo.com 253-0014,Lofton loftonm28@yahoo.com 210 6339,Misty Mzoerner2011@yahoo.com 832 477 8507 http://www.usdebtclock.org/