“Mapping the Market Thought” Approach for forecasting Maize Prices
BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic
Transcript of BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic
![Page 1: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
BUSINESS FORECASTING
1. Barometer Approach: Economic Indicators 2. Analysis of Expectations and Intentions 3. Construction of Economic Models and Projections
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 2: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
9a>A>o/yic fh^cASr A/op RBAurrV.
&t>Hkan<Lelr, ^ 1933 .
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 3: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
APTHUR, H. B. and DENNIS, S. J.
Selected individual commodities and recent cyclical fluctuations in business, REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS,
November 15, 1932. Pp. 10.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 4: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
BABSON, R. ¥.'
BUSINESS BAROMETERS USED IN THE ACCUMULATION OF MONEY; A TEXT BOOK ON APPLIED ECONOMICS FOR MERCHANTS, BANKERS, AND INVESTORS.
Vellesley Hills, Mass.: 1st ed., 1909; 2nd ed., 1910 3rd ed., 1910 4th ed., 1911 5th ed., 1912
6th ed., 1913 pp. lv + 426
17th ed., 1925 pp. ii + ?
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 5: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
BARNES, Leo
HANDBOOK FOR BUSINESS FORECASTING. Nev York: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1948.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 6: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Author File BRATT, E. C.
The use of behavior classifications in business cycle forecasting (University of Chicago), JOURNAL OF BUSINESS, Vol. XXII,
October, 1949. 16 pp. (pp. 209-224.)
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 7: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
BRATT, E. C.
The use of behavior classifications in business cycle forecasting, JOURNAL OF BUSINESS (University of Chicago), Vol. XXII, October, 1949, pp. 209-224-
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 8: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Dak tottW rt> xvi&sast ^hr 0iv/&rss Cycle t IK- elf. Juty ,M* f/>- '*&'
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 9: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
BRATT, E. C.
Business-cycle forecast ing, (University of Chicago), JOURNAL OF BUSINESS,
January, 194-3. Pp. 11
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 10: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
BRATT, E. C.
The timing of capital production and the need for forecasting, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW,
Summer, 1937. Pp. 9.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 11: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
BROOKMIRE, J . H.
Financial forecasting: i v . banking barometers, MOODY'S MAGAZINE,
April , 1913-
Methods of Business Forecasting based on Fundamental Statistics, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW,
March, 1913.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 12: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
BURGESS, Robert Vi.
The whole duty of the statistical forecaster, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol. XXHI, December, 1937, pp. 636-642.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 13: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
BURNS, Arthur F.
THE FRONTIERS OF ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE. Princeton: Pilnceton University Press, 1954-
National Bureau of Economic Research26th, 30th, and 33rd Annual Reports (194-6, 1950, 1953) reprinted
'Diffusion indexes1 discussed
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 14: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
BURNS, Arthur F. and MITCHELL, ¥. C.
MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 194-6.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 15: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Conference on Research in Income and Wealth
SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTING, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. XVII. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 195 •
Seven investigations by Bassie, Modigliani, Hultgren, and other economists, into the prediction of economic behavior over one or two years ... including surveys of r
business anticipations in the United States and Canada, forecasts of freight traffic, and the well-known Surveys of Consumer Finances.
* Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 16: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
COX, Garfield V.
AN APPRAISAL OF AMERICAN BUSINESS FORECASTS. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1930
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 17: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
DAUTEN, Carl A.
BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING Sou-th-Western Publishing Co. , 1954-
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 18: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
ffAUTEN, Carl A.
BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING. Cincinnati, Ohio: South-Western Publishing Co., 1954. Pp. viii, 518.
Review: by Rendigs Fels, SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, XXI, Jan. 1955, pp. 3A2-A3.
textbook on business fluctuations, standard works- Gordon, Hansen, Tinbergen,
and Hambergj latest Bratt
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 19: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS. New York, December, 1 9 r e . Pp . 74.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 20: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
DEWEY, E. R. and DAKIK, E. F.
CYCLES: THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION. New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1950.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 21: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
GARVY, George
"Short Term economic forecasting" (discussion of paper by I. Schweiger, in STUDIES IN INCOME AND WEALTH, Vol. XVII.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 22: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
GARVY, George
The Development and Their Use in Economic Board of Governors of the 1952.
of Bank Debits and.Clearings Analysis• Washington: Federal Reserve System,
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 23: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
GILBERT, R. V. and PERLO, Victor
The investment-factor method of forecasting business activity, ECONOMETRICA,
July-October, 1942. Pp. 6.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 24: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
1̂: R e s e r v e JvtsWm
business forecasting, see p, 87
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 25: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
HARDI, C. 0. and COX, G. V.
FORECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS. New York: Macmillan, 1927.
Pp. x, U3U*
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 26: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
HARDY, C. 0 . , and COX, G. U.
FOBECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS. New York: Macaillan Company, 1927.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 27: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
JORDAN, David F.
BUSINESS FORECASTING. New York: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1921. Pp. xv, 270.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 28: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
HAUSER, P. M. and LEONARD, V. R., Editors
GOVERNMENT STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS USE. New York: Wae^ejj946. Pp. x v i , 432 .
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 29: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
KIHLER, A.
Forecasting the Business Cycle, SOCIAL RESEARCH, VOL* VI, No. 3, September, 1939*
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 30: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
LIVINGSTON, J. A.
Economic research and public policy, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, SUPPLEMENT, Vol. XLV, No. 2, May, 1955, PP- 296-311.
Discussion: by Ewan Clagge, pp. 312-14-; Grover V. Ensley, pp. 3M-18; Stanley Lebergott, pp. 313-20; Bert Seidman, pp. 320-24; Merrill A. Vat son, pp. 324-28.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 31: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
MOORE, Geoffrey H.
Economic Indicators and the Economic Outlook, MICHIGAN BUSINESS REVIEW, Vol. VII, January 1955, pp. 1-8.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 32: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
MOORE, Geoffrey H.
"Analyzing Business Cycles,11 THE AMERICAN STATISTICIAN,
April-May 1954, PP- 13-19.
In this Moore describes two approaches to economic forecasting which are currently being investigated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. One is based on an exhaustive investigation of timing relations among economic series, for the purpose of identifying series vhich in their cyclical turns usually lead, coincide with, or lag general cyclical swings. The other involves "diffusion indexes," or proportions of selected time series that are expanding.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 33: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
MOORE, G. H«
Analyzing the Economic Cycles, DON'S REVIEW AND MODERN INDUSTRY, Oct. 1953.
Ec« forecasting; approach to question whether a bus. recession is in making.
Rrewar record vs. 1948-49 recession
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 34: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
MOORE, Geoffrey H.
"The Diffusion of Business Cycles," 1955.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 35: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
MOORE, Geoffrey H.
STATISTICAL INDICATORS OF CYCLICAL REVIVALS AND RECESSIONS. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1950,
[Occasional Paper 31]
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 36: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
MOORE, Geoffrey H.
Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, Occasional Paper 31. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1950. 97 pp.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 37: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
MOURRE , Baron
Le nethode Harvard pour la prevision des crises et les perspectives actuelles aux I&ats-Unis, JOUR. DE SOC. STATISTIQUE DE PARIS,
September-October, 1948. Pp. 13.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 38: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
NEWBUPY, F. D.
A business forecas t , 1952-55, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW, XXX, March-April, 1952, pp. 95-10^.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 39: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
NEWBURY, F. D.
BUSINESS FORECASTING. Nev York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. , I n c . , 1952.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 40: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
PARKER, Frank
The development of business forecasting, ADMINISTRATION, Vol. IV, September, 1922, pp. 269-275.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 41: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
PERSONS, Warren M.
FORECASTING BUSINESS CYCLES. Nev York: Wiley, 1931. Pp. xiv, 295.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 42: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
JWs»*s V*f . ftestr^ XUT 6*4 Keltic,- &jJr.
T ^ ? - '
8«*l»tV ttougfh** Mity*** W*H Pp*«(+3S?
*5 « W / ? » " * / » - 3 i j r
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 43: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
PERSONS, Warren M., William frufant FOSTER, and Albert J. HETTINGER, JR. (editors)
THE PROBLEM OF BUSINESS FORECASTING. Poblications of the Pollak Foundation, no. 6. Boston and New York: H0ttgbton, Mifflin. Company, 1924. Pp. xiii, 317.
Review: by W. A. Berridge, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, XV,
March, 1925, pp. I6I-I64.
H* * * •
•* • H «J O M U •
°J 3 . o at ̂ » -H • Ha • • M.M « ^ b
•j it ««4 . i O * • • H. p * ^ P oo> • d • w • • • • w d Ti ••HJo
r& W
(0 ••
0) HI
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 44: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
PERSONS, Warren M.
Construction of a business barometer based upon annual data, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Vol. VI, December, 1916.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 45: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
/ i _ — - /
n
C i h ; Ju/y / 9 3 4 , p- dfjrfr <~
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 46: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
PROCHNOV, Herbert V. Ed.
DETEEMBJING THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK Hew York: Harper, 1954- •
445 pp.
3. HQABPLEY, V.E., Jr.: The importance and problems of business forecasting, pp. 8-30.
2. ABRAMSON, A. G.: Business cycles, pp. 31-50. 3. PETERSON, J. M.: Money supply and the level of busines
activity, pp. 51-108 /*• Dunkak, Vm. H.j Albrecht, P>.> Spangler, F. LeRoyj
Roche, ffah&j and Sedlmayr, J. H.:
f>. Klein, L» R.s Savings and the propensity to consume, 109-25.
6. McCracken, P. Vi.: Gross national product and national income, pp. 126-51.
7. Field, Kenneth: Industrial production—durable goods, pp. 152-67.
B. kichter, F. E.: Nondurable goods, 163-39. ?. Mcintosh, A. J., and Slifer, W.I^.: Fuels, pp. 190-215. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 47: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
10. Thompson, D.S.: Construction,, 216-35 II* Bogen, J.I.: Railroads and public utilities, 236-47 13* Hitchings, G.P.: Automotive transportion, 2£&-$t 1A* Walker, Q. F.: Personal consumption expenditures,
pp. 265-35. 15. Kellogg, L.S.: Agriculture, pp. 286-305 16. Clague, Ewan: ^rices, wages and employment, 306-29. 17. LindoB, Wesley: Treasury receipts and expenditures,
and management of the public debt, 330-57. 18. Young, C. £.: New businesses, business failures, and
inventories, pp. 38-87. 19. Hersey, A. B.: World markets and foreign trade, 417-
3A. 20. Garfield, F. R.: Long time trends, pp. A35-
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 48: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
ROBINSON, Roland I.
Measuring seasonal ups and downs, BANKING, June, 1950.
p. 20.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 49: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
SMITH, B. B.
A forecasting index for business, JOUBNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol. XXVI, June, 1931, pp. 115-129.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 50: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
sxrnm, carl Measurement versus Theory in Economics,
in ECONOMIC ESSAYS IN HONOR OF GUSTAV CASSH..
1933.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 51: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
SA>H0€ ft. Canl
%u&/A>ess Cvct.es AMD Bos/Ajess.
Pjo. x/t/ +3*<.
i^fro.cf. " The iti/urc £} b*w/*u*o oyc&* "
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 52: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Pp. xiv, 326.
Studies in quantitative economics
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 53: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
SNIDER, Richard M.
MEASURING BUSINESS CHANGES. New Torfc: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1955* Pp. xvli, 382.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 54: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
SNYDER, Richard M.
MEASURING BUSINESS CHANGES: A HANDBOOK OF SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS INDICATORS. New York: John Wiley & Sons, I n c . ; London: Chapman and Hal l , L t d . , 1955. Pp. x v i i i , 382.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 55: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
TRUESDELL, L. E.
Pitfalls in the field of statistical forecasting, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, XXXIII, June, 1938, pp. 373-379.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 56: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
TURNER, Robert C.
Problems of forecasting for economic stabilization AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, SUPPLEMENT, XLV, No. 2, May, 1955, pp. 329-340.
Discussion: by Solomon Barkin, pp. 351-53; H. R. Bowen, pp. 353-55; R. A. Lester, pp. 355-57.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 57: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
ULMER, M. J.
THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF COST OF LIVING INDEX NUMBERS. New York: Columbia University Press, 19-49. Pp. 106.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 58: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
July tfvcf /?g / V
iiTutt us * \ti\eCt4*>h Tl
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 59: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
2i#A#SSf Oct. H«6 p/_ /4<?'
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 60: BUSINESS FORECASTING Barometer Approach: Economic](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022071519/613c5f1bf237e1331c512ec1/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
VABDWELL, Charles
AN INVESTIGATION OF ECONOMIC DATA FOR MAJOR CYCLES. Philadelphia:
1927.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis