Business Cycle Data in U.S.
Transcript of Business Cycle Data in U.S.
Introduction Time Series Plots and Definitions Key Correlations
Business Cycle Data in U.S.
Pedro de Araujo
Department of Economics & BusinessColorado College
March 30, 2021
Macroeconomic Theory II - Spring 2021 Business Cycle Data 1/22
Introduction Time Series Plots and Definitions Key Correlations
Some Definitions
1 Business Cycles are fluctuations about trend in real GDP.
2 The turning points in the deviations of real GDP from trendare peaks and troughs.
3 Persistent positive deviations from trend are booms andpersistent negative deviations from trend are recessions.
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Real GDP and HP Filtered Trend
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Deviations from Trend in Real GDP (after WWII)
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Deviations from Trend in Real GDP
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Irregularities in Business Cycles
1 The fluctuations in GDP about trend are quite choppy.
2 There is no regularity in the amplitude of fluctuations in realGDP about trend.
3 There is no regularity in the frequency of fluctuations in realGDP about trend.
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More Definitions
1 If the deviations from trend in a macroeconomic variable arepositively (negatively) correlated with the deviations fromtrend in real GDP, then that variable is procyclical(countercyclical).
2 If a macroeconomic variable is neither procyclical norcountercyclical, it is acyclical.
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Imports and GDP
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Introduction Time Series Plots and Definitions Key Correlations
Imports and GDP
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Leading Indicators (LEI)
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Components of GDP
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Consumption and GDP
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Investment and GDP
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Labor Market Variables
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Employment and GDP
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Labor Productivity and GDP
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Summary
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Summary
Macroeconomic Theory II - Spring 2021 Business Cycle Data 21/22