Business Barometer Survey - Deloitte · * Figures were computed by weighing percentages of...
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25 April 2013 Business Barometer Survey The business pulse survey
Transcript of Business Barometer Survey - Deloitte · * Figures were computed by weighing percentages of...
25Apr
il20
13
BusinessBarometerSurvey
The businesspulse survey
Introduction
The twenty-fifth edition of Business Barometer offers analyses of the outlook of business leaders regarding current andcoming economic conditions, as well as of the early months of the administration led by President Enrique Peña Nieto,including their views on the effects of recent labor reforms on hiring practices in their companies.
In general terms, business leaders continue to hold a favorable outlook of the current business context, with theinvestment climate and availability of credit, outperforming all other indicators during the last quarter of 2012. It must bementioned; however, employment and security scores fell, suggesting that general approval regarding the performance ofthe economy and government did not spill over to boost these variables. With regard to the future business climate,opinions were more optimistic, though security slipped from the score published in Business Barometer Twenty-Four.
It is important to stress the performance of the variable for the current situation of businesses. This aggregate came onunmistakably to the downside, with all constituent variables, i.e., prices, salaries, output, production capacity, profitabilityand employment dipping since our last survey. In this regard, variables associated with company output, seem to befeeling the effects of deceleration seen during the last few months of 2012 and early months of 2013, especially amongcompanies associated with the export manufacturing and construction.
Demand levels faced by companies confirm the scenario described. For the third straight quarter the number ofrespondents reporting high demand has fallen, though most companies (59%) still report normal demand. Overall, theseresults allow us to assert that companies are beginning to face less favorable conditions, while operating nonetheless,within a normal demand range.
The twenty-fifth Business Barometer also revealed confidence with regard to 2013 year-end inflation. Fully 61% ofrespondents have inflation coming in at between 3.5 and 4.0%, very similar to the outlook for year-end 2014. Thisgeneral confidence is also evident in the exchange rate variable, with most respondents suggesting it will remain stable atbetween 12.5 and 13.0 vs. the US dollar.
In terms of the threats to the performance of the Mexican economy, the report finds deceleration of the US economy at42% followed by insecurity at 39% as the leading concerns among business leaders surveyed. Interestingly, insecurityjumped by ten percentage points since out last survey. In this light, the threat of the slowing US economy and thestructural issue of insecurity stand out as the areas in which the government must continue make strides in order toattenuate negative perceptions among respondents.
Interestingly, opinion on the performance of the government continued to trend downward, touching 51 points, itslowest mark in 12 months. Improving education and reducing poverty were the only variables that advanced, suggestingthat the education reforms and the National Hunger Crusade contributed to a better score for government performance.
Business Barometer 25 Introduction 3
4
Most respondents view the early days of the new administration as largely unchanged vis à vis the performance of theCalderon administration, with only 5.0% of respondents saying that things are worse. These results reveal that mostbusiness leaders continue to trust the Peña Nieto administration, opining that the government has been focused on creatingconsensus, something that is congruent with the agreements achieved since the Pact for Mexico was signed. This variablewas followed by improvement in the country’s image, the economic context and combating corruption. Finally, the surveyshows business leaders giving the lowest marks to the variables of reducing poverty and improving public security.
In terms of the strategies the government must pursue in the coming months, opinion was divided. Most respondentsbelieve tax and energy reform should be priorities, though 21% of those surveyed believe preventing economicdeceleration should be the thrust of government efforts. Finally, the survey revealed that 18% of business leaders opinethat combating corruption is the number one priority, because of the high costs it levies on business activity.
Meanwhile, fully 85% of those surveyed opine that labor reform has not exerted any significant impact toward improvingeconomic conditions of business, while only 9.0% think it is a positive driver in the economy. In terms of its effects onhiring, labor reform has not had any significant impact according to business leaders surveyed. Fully 88% of respondentsreport that these reforms have not affected how they go about hiring, while 9.0% report that they have it. Takentogether, these results allow us to assert that in short term these reforms have had very little tangible effect, especiallywhen viewed against the backdrop of the expectations created in the lead up to passage.
The twenty-fifth edition of Deloitte Business Barometer, therefore, can assert that business leaders hold to an upbeatoutlook for the current business climate and an even better outlook of next year’s prospects. Nonetheless, the assessmentreveals the situation of businesses trending downward, even as most business leaders surveyed report normal levels ofdemand. As such, in terms of output, employment, production capacity, salaries and prices, business leaders appear to besomewhat less confident. Insofar as the current situation is concerned, business leaders see economic conditions quitesimilar to those prevailing during the last administration, with the current government marshaling its strategic efforts increating political accords in order to promote structural reforms, prevent economic deceleration and combat corruption.At the same time, it appears that business leaders still have not seen any significant impact of labor reform, either in termsof economic conditions of hiring.
Business Barometer 25 Business Enviroment 5
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
AverageSecurity Employment Creditavailability
Investmentclimate
Economicsituation
75
40
13
8
18
121096
191917
10
26
35
69
77
71
74 75
71
5753
68 6669
73 73
6865
60
54
42
6361
56
44
7167
5957
35
59585554
36
64
605857
33
52514743
25
50
444140
13
68
625855
18
686662
58
16
65
61
55
13
61
58
52
11
70
6462
57
14
61
56
48
14
49
333027
20
17
21
65
272524
17
67
6258
51
32
Business Environment
Current situation compared with the one in previous year(Average scores in a 01-100 basis*).
Current SituationThe twenty-fifth edition of Business Barometer shows that business leaders surveyed are remain upbeat with regard to thecurrent business climate. The variables of investment climate and availability of credit continued to advance, moving aheadsince the third quarter of 2012. Likewise, both categories topped marks from one year ago and are the best performingvariables for this context. In contrast, the economic situation, employment and security performed less favorably. Specifically,scores for employment have dipped over two consecutive surveys, which stands in contrast to the generally high marks formacro-economics. Similarly, it is important to stress, the economic situation is still viewed as positive, though with somewhatlower marks since our last edition of the survey. This result coincides with the deceleration seen in several productive sectors.
Business leaders’ assessment of security is worthy of note. Even as this marker continues to trend upward, its performance wasinterrupted in the latest survey, revealing some degree of concern in the business community about how to tackle securityissues in order to improve the general business climate in Mexico.
* Figures were computed by weighing percentages of responses “better”, “the same” or “worse” by 1, 0.5 and 0
I
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
7472
66
60
7980
53
64
7976 78
88 87
79 79 80
72
56
62
78
73 76
81
86
7776
62
80
7573
67
7068
60
71
67
62
60
747170
66
60615857
49
55545250
43
666462
44
75737270
49
757271
68
46
72
70
67
47
83
787574
49
83
76
75
50
727068
49
75
68
67
47
747170
51
63
5856
42
5149
4543
Average Security Employment Creditavailability
Investmentclimate
Economicsituation
Future situation within one year (Average scores in a 01-100 basis*)
* Figures were computed by weighing percentages of responses “better”, “the same” or “worse” by 1, 0.5 and 0
FutureOpinions of for future prospects came in more optimistically. Of all the constituent measures of the business climate, onlysecurity underperformed since the last Business Barometer of 2012. In contrast, employment brought home an upbeatscore. Evidently, respondents are confident the current sluggishness in the job market will eventually be boosted by theimproving business climate in the near term. This generalized confidence among business leaders comes in conjunctionwith structural reforms aimed at boosting Mexico’s economic growth and competitiveness and expected to exert fullereffects in the medium term..
6
Business Barometer 25 Company Situation 7
Current SituationInterestingly, the current situation of businesses sent very clear signals with all constituent measures –prices, salaries,output, production capacity, profitability and employment– tailing to the downside since our survey last quarter. Theseresults stand in contrast to the business climate score. Scores for the constituents of productive activity of companiesreveal the effects of deceleration in late 2012 and early 2013, especially among companies in export manufacturing andconstruction.
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
67
71
77
75
71
65
62
78
81
65
6261
65
61
66
72 7374
75 75
6967
6361
75
72
7477 76
7473716968
64
61
5859
63646768
72727169
6463
73
70696865
62
716967
6059
6968
64
5655
676664
5655
7271696765
63
7271
6765
62
58
67656362
59
54
666463636158
65
62605957
51
57
50
46
4039
64
57
50
40
3736
52
46
36
3332
51
45
35
3130
48
54
6263
Prices Wages Production Productioncapacity
Profitability Employment Average
Current Company situation compared with the one in previous year(Average scores in a 0-100 scale basis)
* Figures were computed by weighing percentages of responses “better”, “the same” or “worse” by 1, 0.5 and 0
Company SituationII
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
Low Normal High
14
56
30
48
29
23
9
12 13
37
40
4954
17
55
27
18
25
16
2326
20
2624
23
30
45
51
25 24
17 1713
22
14
2629
60
1514
19 18
41
51
54 5454
5759
36
6157
27
6058 59
8
Current company demand (percentage distribution of responses)
The score for demand for products and services enjoyed by companies confirms the scenario described: for the thirdstraight quarter, fewer respondent report high demand. While fully 59% of companies report normal levels of demand,this group is made up largely of companies with only moderate purchasing power and which do not necessarilyconstitute major drivers of economic growth. Nonetheless, the score of business leaders reporting low demand came inunchanged at 17%, something that came be taken as a positive indicator. All told, these results signal the onset of agenerally less favorable situation for business, though demand level can still be described as standing within a normalrange.
Business Barometer 25 Company Situation 9
FutureThe score for the future situation of companies reflects the general confidence of business leaders, though it came inslightly off across the board of variables, with the exception of profitability. In this light, we can infer that prospects pointto companies adopting strategies to face less favorable scenarios in terms of their specific operations.
These falling scores coincide with a slide in the current situation of companies. As such, since prevailing demand reportedby most companies is still normal, it is clear that in terms of output, employment, production capacity, salaries and prices,business leaders surveyed are less enthusiastic.
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
Prices Wages Production Productioncapacity
Profitability Employment Average
79
69 69
86
83 83
8182
7273
63
69 69
66
62 62
77 7777
72
68
75
737170
63
70 70
7879 79
72
69
67
82
75 75 75747372
68
80
76 7676
747372
67
78
7473 73 73
69 6969
68 68
80 80
72
79 7979 79
74 74 7474 7474
71
68 68
82
78 787878
75 7576 76
7271 71
72 72 7272
69 69
67 67
77 77
75
61
67
61
68
5960
66
61
55
50
76
72
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
Future situation (within a year) of the companies with regard to the date of the survey(Average scores in the 0-100 scale*)
* Figures were computed by weighing percentages of responses “better”, “the same” or “worse” by 1, 0.5 and 0
10
28%
0%
61%
8%
1%2%
Less than 3.5 %
Between 3.5 and 4%
Between 4 and 5%
Between 5 and 6%
Between 6 and 7%
Between 6 and 7%
InflationThe twenty-fifth Business Barometer reveals generalized confidence with regard to 2013 year-end inflation. Fully 61% ofrespondents put inflation in the 3.5-4.0% range; i.e., within the high-end of the target range set by the Banco de Mexico.Nonetheless, a significant 28% of respondents see at 2013 year-end inflation is in the 4.0-5.0% range, suggesting thatsome sectors are undergoing inflation pressure coloring the outlook of their business leaders. More relaxed monetarypolicy of recent weeks (an easing the Banco de Mexico benchmark rate) could drive an uptick in prices. As such, eventhough most business leaders trust prices to remain within the bounds set by the monetary authority, quite a few foreseegrowing pressure on prices.
The outlook for year-end 2014 is similar. There is generalized confidence that inflation will come in within the Banco deMexico target range. Fully 49% of those surveyed have inflation at between 3.5% and 4.0%, while 16% said it will comein below 3.5%. In contrast, 29% of respondents foresee growing pressure on prices bringing the inflation rate up to the4.0-5.0% range. As such, we can discern a degree of agreement in the upbeat expectations that Banco de Mexico canmeet inflation control targets in both 2013 and 2014.
Inflation and Exchange Rate
Inflation by year-end 2012
Expected inflation (percentage of responses)
* Due to decimals round up, the answers may not represent a 100% sum.
29%
0%
49%
16%
1%5%Less than 3.5 %
Between 3.5 and 4%
Between 4 and 5%
Between 5 and 6%
Between 6 and 7%
More than 7%
Inflation by year-end 2013
III
This outlook is corroborated by the outlook for the peso on the 12-month horizon. There is a clear downward bias inthese expectations, with 37% foreseeing the peso breaching 13.0 while fully 63% of respondents, a larger percentagethan recorded in our last measure, believe the ceiling will hold.
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T12012 201320112009 2010
More than $13.00 per dolar To $13.00 per dolar
7
93 89 92
82
11 8
18
72
29
71
19
92
10
90
61
39
52
66 63
3437
19
81
15
52
85
8
37
4848
28
63
81
Exchange RateFully 57% of respondents foresee the year-end exchange rate will come in within the 12.5-13.5 range, while 29% believeit will tick up to between 13.0 and 13.5. As such, we can assert that most business leaders believe the 13.0 ceiling willnot be breached. These results tell of generalized confidence in the financial system and the country’s economy. Eventhough there is some degree of volatility in international markets, this does not necessarily mean that the Mexican pesowill lose ground against other currencies.
29%
0%
57%
6%1%6%
Less than 12.50
Between 12.51 - 13.00
Between 13.01 - 13.50
Between 13.51 - 14.00
Between 14.51 - 15.00
More than 15.00
Exchange rate within a year(at the time of the survey)
Exchange rate trend over the next 12 months (percentage of responses)
Business Barometer 25 Inflation and Exchange Rate 11
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
32
24
64
37
48
70
53
38
33
49
57
52
57 57
5250
3941
33 35
49
4239
14
42
29
18
31
33
26
52
3230
32
29
25
2
36
23
1
37
11
1
27
18
21
18
31
23
16
21
21
27
17
31
20
16
52
27
19
32
31
22
11
3
26
21
12
2
24
15
63
18
742
22
7
3
Politicaldisagreements
Us economicslowdown
Oil prices Insecurity Inflation
Threats to the Mexican economy within the incoming months (percentage of responses)
Threats to EconomicActivity
ThreatsThe threats to the Mexican economy sounded in this edition of Business Barometer came in as follows: 45% of respondentscite deceleration of the US economy and 39% point to insecurity as the major areas of concern. Moreover, the score forinsecurity spiked by a rather hefty 10% since our last number. In this light, we can safely assert that concerns over decelerationof the US economy and the structural problem associated with insecurity should be the central focus of government efforts toalleviate these negative perceptions prevailing in the business community sampled.
In contrast, the score for political discord as a threat to economic growth declined. This result appears to reflect the currentadministration’s capacity to carry forward reforms needed to impel expansion of the Mexican economy. Similarly with regardto inflation, relatively few business leaders consider it a significant risk factor for the performance of the Mexico economy.
12
IV
Business Barometer 25 Threats to Economic Activity 13
Opinions on government performance (average scores in a 0-100 scale*)
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
6364
83
42
47
50
5657
66
53
50
464441
36
3331
62
52
3332
27
35
39
46
26
62
48
353230
3739
44
22
76
34
37
41
44
27
78
19
35
3839
51
29
16
20
27 27
41
80
3941
46
50
82
23
48
54 54
30 30
43 45
868687
50
55
5149 4948
40
23
63 63
72
62
33
42
48
58
65
46
282624
31
3538
69
38
2120
2325
30
66
38
26
24
16
2931
34
1918
15
20
23 23
25
22
87
64 65
88
59
55
5052
47
3133
26
5553
49
43
292829
47
31
62
71
61
8891
36 36
3235
68
64
56
51
32 32
3533
30
46
5051
555659
79
Inflation control
Economygrowth
Unemploymentreduction
AverageRepositioningMexico in the world
Povertyreduction
Educationimprovement
Infraestructureimprovement/increase
Securityimprovement
Government’s performanceThe views of business leaders surveyed regarding the government’s performance continues to be low, coming in at51points, its lowest score in a year. Improving education and reducing poverty are the only constituent measures toadvance, suggesting that education reform and the National Hunger Crusade have in fact helped underpin perceptions ofthe government’s performance. In contrast, the constituent scores for reducing unemployment, growing the economy,inflation control, infrastructure improvement and positioning Mexico in the world trended to the downside.
These scores are in line with the deceleration seen in several productive sectors, especially export manufacturing andconstruction.
* Figures were computed by weighing percentages of responses “better”, “the same” or “worse” by 1, 0.5 and 0
14
The outlook of business leaders surveyed of economic conditions in the early days of the new administration came in quitesimilar to scores gathered for the last administration. Fully 75% of respondents see little or no change, while 20% believethings have improved and only 5.0% believe things are worse. These results reveal that most business leaders surveyed trustthe new administration at least to keep things on an even keel or promote improvement, which appears to be driving ageneral sense of confidence and certainty in the economy among business leaders across most sectors.
Economic conditions during the first quarter of the new administration:
In your view, the new administration has centered its efforts on:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Improving public security
Reducing poverty
Combating corruption
Improving the economic climate
Improving the country’s image
Creating political consensus
67%
33%
26%
21%
15% 15%
5%
20%
5%
75%
Worse
Improved
Same as previousadministration
News and BusinessV
Business Barometer 25 News and Business 15
Most business leaders surveyed believe the current administration has centered its efforts on creating political consensus, aresult in line with the Pact for Mexico accords. Improving the country’s image came in second, followed by the economicclimate and combating corruption. Reducing poverty and improving security were the variables rated lowest by businessleaders surveyed, which for the former appears to be somewhat paradoxical in view of the government’s National HungerCrusade effort implemented to combat nutritional deficiencies among the poor.
As for improving security, the score stands in line with previous results, which reflected a growing concern in this matter,and in which the variable “Health and education, combating addictions and promoting employment are the best ways toguarantee well-being and human development and controlling .
0 8 16 24 32 40
34%
21%
27%
18%
Combatingcorruption
Preventingeconomicslow down
EnergyReform
TaxReform
What should promote the new administration in the coming months?
1 Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong,Opening address of the Inter-Secretarial Commission for thePrevention of Violence andCriminality (Aguascalientes,February 12, 2013)
16
Opinions of those surveyed were divided with regard to the strategies the government should pursue in coming months.The largest segment, 34%, emphasized tax reform, while 27% pointed to energy reform. As such, well over half of thesample believes structural reforms should be fundamental thrusts in the strategy deployed by the Peña Nieto administration.Nonetheless, fully 21% of respondents opine that preventing deceleration of the economy should be stressed. Finally, thebalance of 18% believes the priority should be combating corruption in order to control the onerous costs it levies acrossthe entire range of business activities.
According to fully 85% of respondents in this edition of Business Barometer, economic conditions of their companies havenot improved with the advent of labor reform, while only 9.0% think things have improved. Nonetheless, only a scant 5.0%said they did not know if labor reform has brought any improvement in this regard. In the area hiring, 88% of respondentsreported little or no effect of the labor reform, while only 9.0% said that it has exerted some effect on hiring. All told, theseresults allow us to assert that labor reform has exerted only a modest impact in the short term and so far has fallensignificantly short of expectations stirring during the lead up to passage.
5%
9%
5%
85%No
Yes
Don’tknow
5%
9%
2%
88%No
Yes
Don’tknow
With implementation of the Labor Reform, have they improved economic conditions in your company?
With the new labor Reforms, has your company expanded hiring?
Business Barometer 25 Conclusions 17
T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1T4T3T2T1AverageAverage
2012 2013201120092007 2008 2010
Businessenviroment
Company Companies’ general
89
72
79
7169
6058
84
78
82
87 88
8483
87
84
6971
7067
7273
75
6873
7473
67
74
68
76
7073 73
80
6972
57
62
52
83
87 89
77 777474
7470
70
7575
8585
6767
49
Conclusions
Future situation and business environment (within a year at the time of surveys)(0: pesimist; 100: optimist)
Business leaders surveyed have held to a generally favorable outlook of the current business climate and in fact have an evenmore upbeat opinion for next year. Nonetheless, the evaluation of the situation of companies is clearly trending to thedownside, even as most respondents reported normal demand levels. Moreover, in terms of output, employment, productioncapacity, salaries and prices, the sample expressed less confidence. In regard to inflation and the exchange rate, most opinionsconverged around the idea of stability without undue jitters. In this context, nonetheless, a significant portion of the sampleexpressed concern over deceleration of the US economy and public insecurity as threats to the performance of the Mexicaneconomy. Additionally, the score for government performance also slipped since our last report touching a 12-month low.
For the period under study in this edition of Business Barometer, most business leaders sampled expect economic conditionsshall be very similar to those prevailing during the past administration. Moreover, in their view the current administration isfocusing in greater or lesser degree on building political consensus and achieving structural reforms as the linchpins of itsoverall strategy to prevent economic slowdown and combat corruption. Meanwhile, Labor Reform has not exerted animmediate impact on the economic condition of companies or hiring.
In general terms, the future situation of companies and the business climate are viewed with optimism; nonetheless, there aresome indicators within companies, whose administration and strategies shall be key to sustaining the positive outlook offuture business prospects.
VI
* Business environment: Five indicators (Investment climate, credit availability, employment, security and economic situation).** Company: Six indicators (Production capacity, employment, prices, production, profitability and wages).*** Companies’ general situation.
Survey Framework
Income level
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
15%
28%
3% 3%
14%
6%4% 4%
23%
Transport and Aviation Services
Consumer Products
Life Sciences and Healthcare
Manufacturing
Real State
Financial Services
Technology, Media and Telecommunications
Energy and Natural Resources
Services
31%
11%
13%
11%
8%
8%
13%
5% Not available
More than 10,000
Between 5,001 and 10,000
Between 2,001 and 5,000
Between 1,001 and 2,000
Between 501 and 1,000
Between 301 and 500
Less than 300
Deloitte’s Business Barometer No. 25 surveyed 371 executives from Mexico’s leading companies from 4 to March 22nd, 2013.According to the most recent available information, these companies boast aggregate sales above $6,076,006.74 million MXP.
Participation rate by industry
18
VII
We thank all those who participated in the researchfor Business Barometer No. 25, especially Dr. JoseLuis de la Cruz Gallegos, Director of the Businessand Economic Research Center of ITESM-CEM, forhis invaluable analysis and assistance in draftingthis report.
For further information, please contact us at:
www.deloitte.com/mx/[email protected]
Phone. +52 (55) 5080 6633, in Mexico City and the metropolitan area01 800 4 Deloitte (01 800 4 3356 4883)Toll free for the rest of the country.
www.deloitte.com/mx
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As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Galaz, Yamazaki, Ruiz Urquiza, S.C., which has the exclusive legal right to engage in, and limit itsbusiness to, providing auditing, tax consultancy, financial advisory, and other professional services in Mexico, under the name "Deloitte".
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