Bush and the Ayatollah

Shiite Politics in Iraq

Juan Cole (www.juancole.com)

The Prophet’s Family Daughter Fatimah Son-in-law Ali Grandsons Hasan

and Husain

Ashura Prophet’s grandson

Husain mounts rebellion 680

killed on 10th of Muharram

Called Ashura’

Shiites mourn, flagellate

Wolfowitz on Iraqi Shiites “The Iraqis are . . . by

and large quite secular. They are overwhelmingly Shi‘a which is different from the Wahabis of the peninsula, and they don’t bring the sensitivity of having the holy cities of Islam being on their territory.”

-Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy SecDef, NPR, Feb. 18, 2003

Shi’ite Crescent (King Abdullah) Iran 90 % (63 mn.) Afghanistan 15 % ( 4 mn) Iraq 62 % (15 mn.) Pakistan 13 % (19 mn) Bahrain 65 % ( 0.25 mn) Saudi Arabia 10 % ( 1.5 mn) Lebanon 40% ( 1.4 mn.) Syria 16 % ( 2.7 mn)

India 0.5% ( 6 mn)

Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr (d. 1980) Dawa Party founded

1958 to work for Islamic state

Al-Sadr theorizes Islamic government

Allows consultative “elections”

Wants Islamic Law, Economy

Iranian Theocracy 1979 Iranian

revolution

Khomeini: Guardianship of the Jurisprudent

Saddam Cracks down 1980

Da’wa unrest in late 1970s

Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr and other Shiite leaders are executed

Capital crime to belong to the al-Da`wa Party

Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim

Becomes head of Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq in Tehran, 1984

SCIRI mounts Khomeinist insurgency

Jaafari and Dawa Ibrahim Jaafari B. Karbala 1947 Medical School

Mosul Joined Dawa 1968 Jailed 1970s Fled to Iran 1980 Went to London

1989

Shiite Leadership In 1990s After failed 1991 uprising

Older, nonpolitical Shiites follow Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani From Iran, came in 1951

Younger, more radical Shiites follow Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani

Emerges after fall of Saddam, April, 2003

Insisted on election of drafters of new constitution

Wanted early direct elections

Wanted American withdrawal as soon as feasible

Islamic Law Sistani wants

Islamic law as law of land

Clerics would be judges

Would issue fatwas (legal rulings)

Nomocracy as Theocracy Sistani allows lay

parliament, prime minister

But wants religious judiciary

With power of judicial review

Sistani: Two Sources of Legitimacy

Government must be elected because sovereignty lies in Iraqi people

Must be approved by Grand Ayatollahs

Rousseau wins

Two-Stage Theory of SCIRI The al-Hakims

believe Iraq will have two stages

1. Pluralistic, parliamentary government

2. Islamic Republic when Shiite majority asserts itself

Sadr Movement Demands

immediate withdrawal of US

Wants Khomeini-style Islamic Republic

Militant demonstrations

Clashes with US Troops April 2, 2004

Bremer suddenly comes after Muqtada

Muqtada launches uprising throughout South

Mahdi Militia

Sistani helps with negotiated settlement in Najaf June 1

“Transfer of Sovereignty” Bremer flees June

28, no public ceremony

UN/ US appointed Iyad Allawi as interim PM

UNSC Resolution 1546 prescribes elections by Jan. 2005

Najaf II Second Battle of

Najaf Aug. 2004

Massive US bombardment of city

Threats to storm shrine of Ali

Sistani saves the day with march on city

Fallujah Alienates Sunni Arabs After Fallujah campaign, Nov. 2004 Association of Muslim Scholars

calls for boycott of elections Iraqi Islamic Party withdraws Mosul, other cities fall into chaos

with counter-attacks

Sistani’s List Sistani appoints 6-

man committee to unite all major Shiite religious parties in one list, United Iraqi Alliance

SCIRI Al-Da`wa 30 Sadrists as

independents Tribal shaikhs of

Middle Euphrates

Danger of Sectarian Imbalance Sunni Arabs do not vote in Jan. 30,

2005 election Dawa and Supreme Council

essentially win Jaafari Prime Minister

Constitution No civil legislation may be passed

by parliament that contravenes the established laws of Islam

Personal status by religious law where desired

Sistani’s influence

Federalism Over Sistani’s objections

Shiites accept Federalism, possibility of provincial confederations

Sunnis reject this provision Sistani declines to urge a vote for the

constitution or to endorse a party in Dec. 15 elections

Conclusion Religious Shiite parties have the

momentum

Are likely to dominate next parliament if elections are free and open

Can the US, the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs live with this outcome?