Customer Services, Operations, and Safety Committee

Board Information Item III-E

May 13, 2010

Bus Fleet Plan

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TITLE:

2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan

PURPOSE:

To present the 2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan and to seek feedback on the needs for bus fleet expansion, replacement and garage facility development.

DESCRIPTION:

The 2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan provides an update to the 2007 Fleet Management Plan, which projected Metrobus vehicle and facility needs from FY2007 through FY2011 and was adopted by the Board in 2007. The 2010 Fleet Plan documents the anticipated Metrobus fleet growth and system-wide garage capacity from FY2011 through FY2020, and serves as a planning tool to guide the development of Metrobus capital program. This fleet plan update incorporates fleet purchase and garage projects in the proposed FY2011-FY2016 Capital Improvement Program (CIP), and reflects recommendations of the Capital Needs Inventory (CNI).

Despite funding constraints under the current economic conditions, Metro remains

committed to purchasing replacement buses annually at a rate close to 1/15th of total fleet and continuing the mid-life rehabilitation program, as presented in the proposed CIP. Continuation of bus replacement and rehabilitation programs is critical to achieving the Board`s target fleet age of 7.5 years and a maximum life cycle of 15 years, improving Metrobus fleet performance and providing quality service to customers.

In addition to fleet replacement and rehabilitation, Metro anticipates the demand for 312 expansion buses over the next ten years, resulting from the implementation of Priority Corridor Network (PCN), routine service enhancements and ridership growth. These 312 expansion buses would increase the fleet size from 1,482 in the beginning of FY2010 to 1,794 by the end of FY2020. This projected fleet expansion is consistent with the recommendations of CNI, which called for bus expansion averaging 30 buses a year. However, the bus expansion program continues to be under-funded in the next six years. Short-term funding constraints

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority

Board Action/Information Summary

Action Information MEAD Number: Resolution:Yes No

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5/7/2010http://mead/prod/reports/bais.cfm?RequestTimeout=300

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in the proposed CIP would only allow Metro to procure replacement buses, but not expansion buses. Even if Metro were able to fund expansion buses starting FY2017, Metro would procure less than half of the projected expansion buses by FY2020. Actions are needed to increase the bus expansion funding to support planned system expansion and to meet growing ridership demand.

Metro anticipates an increase in system-wide garage capacity around FY2013, when the proposed DC Village, Cinder Bed Road and Southern Avenue replacement garages are completed and in operation. However, the increase in system capacity does not address capacity constraints and undesirable operating conditions at the older garage facilities serving the core Metrobus transit market in inner jurisdictions. Metro and jurisdictions will need to develop strategies to rehabilitate or replace the oldest garages in the core service area, in order to provide adequate storage capacity and efficient maintenance, increase the use of articulated buses and Compressed Natural Gas buses, and meet the transit needs of communities.

FUNDING IMPACT:

The 2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan is for planning purpose and does not obligate Metro or its Board of Directors to the Plan`s projected requirements.

RECOMMENDATION:

Feedback and direction on the findings of the 2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan.

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5/7/2010http://mead/prod/reports/bais.cfm?RequestTimeout=300

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2010 Metrobus Fleet Management Plan

Customer Service, Operations and Safety Committee

M 13 2010May 13, 2010

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PurposePurpose

• Provide an update to the 2007 Bus Fleet Management Plan adopted by the Board in April 2007Present an overview of anticipated ten year Metrobus fleet• Present an overview of anticipated ten-year Metrobus fleet growth and garage capacity

• Serve as a planning document to guide Metrobus fleet p g gmanagement and garage development

• Guide business decisions and meet FTA requirements for future b h d ibus purchase and garage expansion

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Policy AssumptionsKey AssumptionsPolicy Assumptions

Facto s Affecting Demand fo Fleet G o th

Key Assumptions

• Factors Affecting Demand for Fleet Growth− Ridership growth of 25% in the next ten years

15% from trend-based ridership growth 10% f id hi l f PCN i l i 10% from new ridership as a result of PCN implementation

− Priority Corridor Network (PCN) implementation− Routine adjustments to relieve crowding and improve service

reliability

• Factors Affecting Fleet Supply− Bus replacement to achieve average fleet age of 7 5 yearsBus replacement to achieve average fleet age of 7.5 years− Mid-life overhaul to support extending vehicle life to 15 years− Fiscal constraints in the FY11-FY16 Capital Improvement

ProgramProgram No funding for expansion buses in FY11-FY16 CIP

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Policy AssumptionsKey AssumptionsPolicy Assumptions

• Garage Capacity

Key Assumptions

• Garage Capacity− Opening of new garage facilities

DC Village: FY2012 opening with 250 spaces Cinder Bed: FY2013 opening with 160 spaces Cinder Bed: FY2013 opening with 160 spaces Southern Avenue Replacement: FY2014 opening

with 103 spaces

− Rehabilitation/replacement of Northern and Western garagesRehabilitation/replacement of Northern and Western garages

Figure 1: DC Village Figure 2: Cinder Bed

Proposed DC Village Metro

Facility

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Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Demand and SupplyPolicy AssumptionsKey Findings: Demand and Supply

• Fleet Demand• Fleet Demand− Need 312 expansion buses to meet the projected demand for

fleet growth by FY2020

− Deploy nearly half of expansion buses on PCN and other corridors with high growth potentials

Fl t S l• Fleet Supply

− Bus expansion FY2011-FY2016: no expansion fleet0 0 6 o pa o FY2016-2020: assume funding for 135 expansion buses, less than half of

the projected demand for fleet growth

− Bus replacementBus replacement Purchase more than 1,000 replacement buses over ten years 114 replacement buses are articulated buses, including 70 for replacing

standard buses in high ridership corridors g p

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Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Demand and SupplyPolicy AssumptionsKey Findings: Demand and Supply

• Gap Between Fleet Demand and Supply• Gap Between Fleet Demand and Supply− Lack of investment in expansion fleet during FY2011 and

FY2016 hinders Metro’s ability to deploy new expansion buses on PCNon PCN

− Funding constraints in the proposed CIP result in a gap of 177 buses between fleet demand and fleet supply by FY2016

− Even if Metro strictly follows bus replacement policy, by FY2016, average fleet age will reach 7.3 years and more than 90 buses in revenue service will exceed 15 years

− If Metro retains old buses to fill the gap between fleet demand and supply, by FY2016, average fleet age will likely to go up to 8.2 years and more than 250 buses in service will g p yexceed 15 years

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Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Maintenance Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Maintenance

M i t• Maintenance

− Operating maintenance: more than 200 buses under scheduled and unscheduled maintenance on any given dayy g y

− Mid-life overhaul: anticipated capacity expansion in FY14, increasing annual overhaul from 100 buses to 116 buses

M i f i l d b− Maintenance for articulated buses Currently lack maintenance capacity, with a total of 8 maintenance bays

serving articulated buses at three operating divisions Need to expand maintenance capacity at the facilities in need of Need to expand maintenance capacity at the facilities in need of

articulated buses

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Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Garage FacilitiesPolicy AssumptionsKey Findings: Garage Facilities

Garage Capacity• Garage Capacity

− Distribution of capacity is uneven in Metrobus service area Garages in inner jurisdictions are at or above capacity

350

g j p y Garages in outer suburbs have excess capacity

200

250

300

Cap

acity

Inner Garages Outer Garages

50

100

150

Bus

Gar

age

0

Capacity Actual AssignmentGarage (Age)

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Policy AssumptionsKey Findings: Garage FacilitiesPolicy AssumptionsKey Findings: Garage Facilities

• Garage Capacity• Garage Capacity− System approaches capacity for bus storage and maintenance

1,482 buses vs. 1,524 spaces as of June 2009 Loss of 114 spaces due to closing of Southeastern

− Planned new facilities will increase the system’s storage and maintenance capacity and provide room for rehabilitationmaintenance capacity and provide room for rehabilitation /replacement of old garages

− New and replacement garages will enable Metro to increase the use of articulated buses and compressed natural gasthe use of articulated buses and compressed-natural-gas buses

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Policy AssumptionsSummary of Bus Fleet and Facility GrowthPolicy AssumptionsSummary of Bus Fleet and Facility Growth

1,900

2,000

Open Cinder Bed (+160) Close Royal St. (– 83)

Replace Southern Ave. (0)Close Northern for Rehab (-175)

Reopen Western (+138)

Net: +77

Reopen Northern (+175) Close Western for Rehab (-138)

1 700

1,800

use

s Open DC Village (+250)

Net: +37

1,600

1,700

Nu

mb

er o

f B

u

1,400

1,500

Garage Capacity at the End of Year

Total Fleet Demand at the End of Year

Total Fleet Available at the End of Year

N

1,300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Total Fleet Available at the End of Year

Fiscal YearFiscal Year

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Policy AssumptionsIssues to AddressPolicy Assumptions

I t f l d i f l l b d t t /li ht il

Issues to Address

• Impact of planned expansions of local bus and streetcar/light rail transit systems

• Impact of bus priority improvements on bus speed and fleet p p y p prequirements

• Funding availability to increase fleet expansion, support bus operations and complete planned garage developmentoperations and complete planned garage development

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Plan SummaryPlan Summary

• Document the process and procedures for operating and maintaining Metrobus fleet through 2020

• Identify gap between the required fleet growth (demand driven) and the anticipated fleet purchase (supply driven)

C t d l t l ith fl t th• Connect garage development proposals with fleet growth projections

• Incorporate proposals in the draft FY2010-2016 CIP andIncorporate proposals in the draft FY2010 2016 CIP and recommendations from CNI (FY2017-FY2020)

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Next StepsNext Steps

• Obtain Board acceptance of the 2010 Metrobus Bus Fleet Management Plan

• Explore potential funding sources to fully fund bus expansion program at about 30 buses a year

C ti t l t iti f h bilit ti d• Continue to explore opportunities for rehabilitation and replacement of Northern and Western garages

• Provide input to the FY2013-FY2017 bus procurement contractProvide input to the FY2013 FY2017 bus procurement contract

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