Burson-Marsteller's Election Perspectives

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A wider communications perspective www.burson-marsteller.co.uk Change & Organisational Performance • Corporate Communications • Corporate Responsibility • Crisis • Design, Digital & Brands Energy, Environment and Climate Change • Healthcare • Media Relations • PSB • Public Affairs • Technology • Training Burson-Marsteller’s Election Perspectives

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The Burson-Marsteller Elections Perspectives includes perspectives and viewpoints on the UK prime minister race from political strategists and experts in the field – including US election strategist and B-M CEO Mark Penn and former Tory MP and Cameron adviser Andrew MacKay.

Transcript of Burson-Marsteller's Election Perspectives

Page 1: Burson-Marsteller's Election Perspectives

A wider communications perspective

www.burson-marsteller.co.uk

Change & Organisational Performance • Corporate Communications • Corporate Responsibility • Crisis • Design, Digital & Brands Energy, Environment and Climate Change • Healthcare • Media Relations • PSB • Public A�airs • Technology • Training

Burson-Marsteller’s Election Perspectives

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Table of Contents

Foreword 3

Expect the unexpected 4

Britain in the EU in a post-election world 6

Election factoids 8

Seats to watch 10

Where were you when...? 12

Swingometer 13

The balance of power 14

A Cameron Government? 16

About Burson-Marsteller 18

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The one certain outcome from this election will be the creation of a new government – of whatever political colour.

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Foreword

Firstly I’d like to welcome you to tonight’s event – I hope you enjoy the evening, the panel discussion and the debate itself.

To accompany the event we’ve produced a Burson-Marsteller Election Brochure which includes perspectives and viewpoints from political strategists and experts in the fi eld – including US election strategist and B-M CEO Mark Penn and former Tory MP and Cameron adviser Andrew MacKay.

The one certain outcome from this election will be the creation of a new government – of whatever political colour. For business this presents both an opportunity, to engage the government on the big issues that will help business grow and succeed in Britain, but also a challenge – to ensure that their issues and concerns are refl ected in the thinking at the highest level.

At Burson-Marsteller we have an experienced and dynamic Public Affairs team drawn from senior political practitioners of all major parties – Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat – so that whatever the result on May 7th, we are well placed to support your campaigns and get across the issues that matter to your business.

And to help you navigate the complexities of the new Parliament, Burson-Marsteller is offering your business a bespoke Political Healthcheck. Our expert team will be happy to sit down with you and talk through the challenges and opportunities the new Parliament could present your business and plan your strategy for success. If you are interested in learning more about the Political Healthcheck and how it could help your company, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me at [email protected].

The attached USB card (which will hopefully come in handy for your own fi les) also contains a brief fi lm explaining what Burson-Marsteller does and how you can fi nd out more.

I hope you enjoy the evening.

Best wishes

Matt Carter

Matt CarterCEO, Burson-Marsteller UK

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With a week to go before the poll, the 2010 UK election has already taken so many twists and turns that the safest prediction at this point is to continue to expect the unexpected.

From the explosive revelations brought to light in the expenses scandal last year, to the Cleggmania that has gripped the UK over the last two weeks, this has been an election that has put parties in a state of permanent crisis and left the traditional campaign playbook in tatters.

The introduction of US-style election debates undoubtedly transformed the landscape from what was a run-of-the-mill election into a real contest and whatever the result, Nick Clegg has earned a prominence in British politics he struggled to win before.

By contrast, the Conservative campaign has moved from supreme confi dence to nervous jitters, and from looking a certainty for offi ce back in 2009, they are now fi ghting hard to win any majority at all.

And Labour has moved from being almost neck and neck with the Tories at the beginning of the campaign to trailing both the other parties in third place – a position which if repeated in the actual election would surely mark the end of Gordon Brown’s Premiership.

The campaign itself has in many ways become more centralised – with a greater focus on national events like the Leaders’ Debates and fewer leaders’ visits around the country – but the election itself is going to be won and lost in lots of local battles, many of which will be decided by only a handful of votes.

And contrary to the traditional wisdom that the ‘incumbency’ effect means sitting MPs start with an inbuilt advantage, the negative coverage of the expenses scandal and the massive number of MPs standing down this time means that any previous benefi t for incumbents is likely to be negated.

As polling day approaches, the polls would suggest it is still wide open and the performance of the Leaders in this third debate could really make all the difference.

Many a Presidential candidate in the US has triumphed at the start of the debate series only to fade by polling day.

Mark PennCEO, Burson-Marsteller worldwide

Expect the unexpected – The 2010 UK Election Campaign

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For me, in this debate Brown has to fi nally show his vision for the future. He’s known as Mr Policy but just standing on his solid handling of the economic crisis in the past isn’t enough for an electorate who want to know what their future government will do for them.

Cameron needs to fi nally connect with the change British people want in a way that he hasn’t been able to so far. As a typical front-runner, Cameron was caught out by playing it cautious early on in the campaign. Continuing on that path is not a luxury he can any longer afford – he has to come out fi ghting again as he did last week.

And for Clegg, the dramatic rise in his standing has brought with it its own challenges in greater scrutiny and examination of the Lib Dems and their policies, which judging from last week’s performance may just be starting to eat into his new-found support. Many a Presidential candidate in the US has triumphed at the start of the debate series only to fade by polling day. Clegg needs to avoid this fate if he really wants to be the surprise success in this election.

Mark Penn is the global CEO of Burson-Marsteller, who advised Tony Blair in his 2005 race, Bill Clinton in his re-election and Hillary Clinton in 2008. He was the strategic adviser to the US presidential debates in 1996 and over 20 presidential primary debates in 2008.

This has been an election that has put parties on a state of permanent crisis and left the traditional campaign playbook in tatters.

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Britain’s place in the European Union has been a hot political issue since the UK joined the EEC in 1973 – and even before then, as Britain pondered its post war role in Europe. Controversy about Britain’s relationship with the EU reached its peak in the early-to-mid 1990s with the civil war in John Major’s ailing government caused by the Maastricht Treaty.

Despite public concern about the Lisbon Treaty, Labour has successfully avoided allowing Europe to become an all consuming political issue during its 13 years in offi ce. And despite a generally eurosceptic public there is little evidence that Europe is an issue that determines a signifi cant number of votes at general elections, although the UK Independence Party has had impressive results at the last two European elections.

I don’t see this election being any different despite some broken European promises from Labour and the Tories and the Liberals’ very pro-EU stance which is clearly out of step with public opinion. While last week’s second leaders’

election debate started with a question on Europe the issue didn’t dominate the debate at all in a way it would have done in the 1990s. The Lisbon Treaty, which re-packaged much of the draft EU constitution, came without a referendum, despite a promise in 2005 from all three main parties to hold a vote on the original text. The fact is that none of the three major parties has anything to gain by making Europe a key election issue. Even the Tories, whose views are probably closest to public opinion, don’t want to re-ignite internal debate on Europe.

A (unlikely) Labour victory on 6 May would promise more of the same in terms of EU policy – hoping to avoid any treaty changes but working with the EU to address issues such as the economy, energy and climate change. But it is telling that the Labour manifesto mentions ‘Europe’ only a handful of times in a 78-page document – and then only in general terms.

The Liberal Democrats have perhaps the most ‘quietly explosive’ policy – a referendum on EU membership, which would be the fi rst such poll

Britain in the EU in a post- election world

Jeremy GalbraithCEO, Burson-Marsteller Europe, Middle East and Africa

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since 1975. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems’ manifesto is very pro-European (unlike their opponents, they still propose to join the single European currency, albeit when the economic conditions are right and after a referendum). The Lib Dems’ leader, Nick Clegg, has strong Euro-credentials (he is a former MEP and European Commission offi cial). Wary of attacks on his background, he says that he is a ‘critical friend’ of the EU and that he is the only party leader to ‘understand’ the Union’s workings properly. If there is to be a hung parliament, it is not out of the question that a ‘Lib-Lab’ agreement could see Clegg as foreign secretary (possibly with the unpopular Gordon Brown ditched as prime minister and replaced by a more acceptable Labour fi gure, such as David Miliband). This is, of course, the dream scenario for many in Brussels!

Nevertheless, a Conservative victory – or at least David Cameron as prime minister – remains the most likely scenario next week. And political commentators suggest this outcome could have profound effects on Britain’s relationship with its EU partners. I am not so sure.

David Cameron plans to ‘repatriate’ powers from the EU – notably on social policy, working time and justice and home affairs. He repeated this commitment during the leaders’ debate last week. But this will not be as easy as he makes it sound. This would require support from other EU member states – and no government has pledged to help. Politically, there would be little appetite from either Nicolas Sarkozy or Angela Merkel to ride to Mr Cameron’s rescue (they are still irked by his decision to take his MEPs out of the centre-right EPP group in the European Parliament last year – a pledge that had helped him win the Tory leadership in 2005). Other EU countries may complain about ‘social dumping’ if rules do not apply uniformly (and therefore make Britain an easier place to employ people than other member states). The UK can already opt-out of justice issues – but if it does so, it risks losing tools that it fi nds useful, like the Europe-wide arrest warrant, or a common approach to asylum policy.

The Tories also plan a sovereignty act to highlight the UK parliament’s supremacy – which could put the UK at odds with EU law (despite Tory claims that there is a precedent in Germany). Referenda would be compulsory for all future treaty changes – presenting a major block to future EU constitutional reform.

There is much unease in Brussels about a potential Tory victory. But I am not convinced that David Cameron will really want to put a fi ght with Europe at the heart of a fi rst term back in power for the Conservatives. Will he really want to re-ignite the febrile European debate of the 1990s that helped to tear the Conservatives apart when voters want him to sort out the economy? A policy of grudging cooperation, interspersed with the occasional showdown, seems more likely to me than a full-scale battle to repatriate powers.

Despite a heavily eurosceptic public there is little evidence that Europe is an issue that determines signifi cant numbers of votes at general elections

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Election factoids

A post-war record of 147 MPs have stood down at the 2010 Election. The tally (at the dissolution of Parliament on 12th April 2010) surpasses the 116 MPs who stepped down in 1997, and the 128 retirements in 1945. In addition three seats were vacant on the 12th, where the sitting MP has died or resigned and no by-election had been held.

At the General Election, the UK will gain four extra constituencies, all in England, raising the total number to 650, from 646 in 2005. Boundary changes affecting more than 500 constituencies in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are coming into force.

The last time two general elections were held in one year was 1974. The fi rst general election was held on Thursday 28th February, the second on Thursday 10th October. The UK’s last hung parliament followed the February election.

The Rt Hon Tom Clarke is the MP with the largest majority. He won the seat of Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill in Glasgow for Labour with a majority of 19,519 in 2005.

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The smallest majority, of 37, is being defended by Labour in the seat of Crawley, where incumbent MP Laura Moffat has stood down.

Britain’s youngest MP in the last Parliament was former management consultant for Deloitte, Conservative Chloe Smith. At 27, she was elected in a July 2009 by-election triggered by the resignation of the Labour MP Ian Gibson. At the end of the 2009-10 session the oldest MP was the Rt Hon Ian Paisley, MP for North Antrim, born on 6 April 1926. He has now stood down.

To form a Government following the election, the Conservatives will need their largest swing in nearly 80 years. They require a 6.9% swing – bigger than any they have managed at general elections since 1931, assuming a straight switch between Labour and Tory with no change in other parties’ vote share.

A new party has been formed in Northern Ireland, Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force (UCUNF). This is the name of a bipartisan electoral alliance in Northern Ireland between the Ulster Unionist Party and the Northern Ireland branch of the Conservative and Unionist Party, a United Kingdom-wide party.

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Arfon A new constituency following boundary changes, Plaid Cymru are primed to take advantage here.

Barking BNP Leader Nick Griffi n hopes to improve upon the party’s third place in 2005 and unseat Tourism Minister Margaret Hodge.

Brent Central Boundary changes pit two MPs against each other: Labour’s Dawn Butler and the Lib Dems’ Sarah Teather.

Ceredigion A seat that rarely sees Labour or the Tories get more than 20% of the vote combined, the fi ght is between the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.

Dorset Lib Dem pressure in this county could unseat three Conservatives, in Bournemouth West, Dorset North and Dorset West.

Eastleigh Lib Dem Chris Huhne looks vulnerable with only a one per cent majority over the Tories. Will the Lib Dem surge be enough?

Glasgow East Will the SNP be able to keep their 2008 by-election gain?

Hampstead and Kilburn Labour MP Glenda Jackson is battling to retain her seat. Boundary changes have cut her majority, boosting Lib Dem and Tory chances.

Newcastle East and Wallsend Government Chief Whip Nick Brown faces a Lib Dem challenge for his seat.

Norwich South Former Secretary of State Charles Clarke is under pressure from the Lib Dems.

Ochil and South Perthshire The SNP look to gain a key seat from Labour.

Redditch Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith defends a 2,000 majority, a potential high profi le casualty.

St Austell & Newquay Can the Tories break the Lib Dem stronghold of Cornwall?

Watford Labour MP Claire Ward faces a tough challenge from both parties. Nick Clegg visited here on the day the election was announced.

York Outer This new seat is a fi ght between the Lib Dems and Tories. The Tories needs to win to form a government.

Seats to watch

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Brighton

Leeds

Liverpool

Bristol

Plymouth

Cardiff

Birmingham

Belfast

Edinburgh Glasgow

Newcastle upon Tyne

Norwich

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711

3

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642

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Seats to watch

Where were you when...?

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Where were you when...?

Brighton Pavilion This seat offers a real chance for Green Party leader Caroline Lucas to gain the fi rst seat for her party at Westminster. Brighton Pavilion is a bohemian, progressive area surrounded by more conventional suburbs and Lucas offers an appealing manifesto to the liberal electorate here.

Buckingham The seat of the Speaker should by convention remain unchallenged and John Bercow MP does not have to worry about Labour or Liberal Democrat competition. However he does face a challenge from former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who will be hoping to exploit Bercow’s limited Tory support and has strong backing from UKIP.

Edinburgh South West Formerly a Conservative seat during the 1980s and early 90s, Edinburgh South West fell to Labour in the 1997 landslide. Now the seat of Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, victory here is being hard fought for by the Tories and unseating Darling is not an unrealistic target.

Luton South Normally considered a Labour stronghold, incumbent MP Margaret Moran has been under fi re in the media and is standing down. This seat has been the target of some independents, including Esther Rantzen. However they may succeed in splitting the vote in Labour’s favour, rather than posing a serious challenge.

Morley and Outwood Morley and Outwood is a newly created seat being fought by Brown’s right-hand man Ed Balls. To all intents and purposes it should be a solid Labour seat. However Balls has been combating ‘Smeargate’ and the stories regarding his relationship with Damien McBride. He is also facing a vigourous Tory campaign in the seat, behind a strong, local Tory candidate. This could be a ‘Portillo Moment’ for Labour.

Poplar & Limehouse Leaving his Bethnal Green and Bow seat, George Galloway has turned to Poplar and Limehouse to fi ght against Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick. A key target for the Tories, requiring a swing of just under 6%, the party could be buoyed by gentrifi cation surrounding Canary Wharf and encroachment on the Labour vote from Galloway.

This election could throw up all sorts of surprises and here we take a look at some of the seats with the potential to make history.

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Electoral swings compare the results of two elections in the same area. They are often used to analyse the performance of parties over time, or in one election across different electoral areas.

To calculate swing: add the rise in one party’s share in the vote to the fall in the second party’s share of the vote. Divide your fi gure by two. The resulting fi gure is the swing.

Swing can be measured between each of the political parties. However most of the focus in 2010 will be on the Labour to Conservative swing. Should the polls continue in the Liberal Democrats’ favour, the swing towards yellow will also impact the results of the two main parties. Some unusual effects of swing can be seen, particularly in Scotland and Wales in constituencies where nationalist parties are strong. For example, several seats will fall to Plaid Cymru by default in the event of a swing from Labour to Conservative.

Election 2010 - What the key swings would mean:

1.6% swing against Labour This is the uniform national swing needed for Labour to lose their overall majority. This means that there would be a hung parliament.

2.5% swing against Labour This is the uniform national swing needed for the Liberal Democrats to hold the balance of power.

4.3% swing against Labour This is the uniform national swing needed for the Conservatives to become the largest party. They would still not have an overall majority to be able to form a government.

6.9% swing against Labour This is the uniform national swing needed for the Conservatives to gain an overall majority and therefore form the next government. Since the Second World War, only Tony Blair in 1997 has recorded a larger swing (10.2%) than the one the Tories now need to reach the magic number of 326 MPs to form a Government.

In 2005, the fi ve largest Labour to Conservative swings were in:

• Blaenau Gwent (17.3%)• Poplar & Canning Town (11.6%)• Birmingham, Sparkbrook &

Small Heath (9.9%)• South Staffordshire (9.1%)• Enfi eld, Southgate (8.7%)

Swingometer – How to calculate the result

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The balance of power

Some voters may well say “Parliament should be hung” but that view probably refl ects the expenses scandal rather than the political make-up!

The combined impact of revelations about MPs’ expenses and voters’ distrust of politicians has seen a recent narrowing of the opinion polls that has made the prospect of a hung parliament, where no one party has an overall majority, more likely.

Westminster has seen two hung parliaments in modern times. In February 1974, Edward Heath called his “who governs Britain?” crisis election and lost his majority but former Labour PM Harold Wilson failed to win one. Despite their 6 million votes, the Liberals won few seats but, nevertheless, Heath approached Jeremy Thorpe to form a coalition. Even that, if successful, would not have produced a majority and consequently Thorpe said “no”. Heath’s government fell and Harold Wilson re-entered Downing Street leading a minority government.

Wilson called an election in October ‘74 and won a slim majority but decided to resign later in that Parliament, making way for Jim Callaghan to become PM. Through by-election losses,

Gavin Grant Chairman, Burson-Marsteller UK

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Callaghan’s majority vanished and the Parliament was hung again. Callaghan was successful in his negotiations with the new Liberal Leader, David Steel and the Lib/Lab pact was born. The pact died in the “winter of discontent” when Margaret Thatcher was swept to power on the back of the fi rst, modern communications campaign.

Britain approached a hung parliament in the last days of John Major’s administration as by-election defeats came close to wiping out his majority. In addition, internal Conservative battles over the EU meant that his small majority disappeared on key votes, leaving Major reliant on the Liberal Democrats.

Margaret Thatcher’s and Tony Blair’s landslides mask a dramatic shift in the UK’s political landscape that makes hung parliaments more likely. Votes and MPs from outside the Labour and Conservative ranks have increased hugely and over 30% of voters don’t vote for the “big two”. The last parliament had almost 100 non Labour/Tory MPs drawn from 10 Parties/pressure groups.

There is also a precedent in Scottish politics, where a minority SNP Government is in coalition with the Greens. Their combined strength is not a majority, so new laws need the support of one or more of the Labour, Liberal Democrat or Conservative parties.

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Margaret Thatcher’s and Tony Blair’s landslides mask a dramatic shift in the UK’s political landscape that makes hung parliaments more likely.

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What happens if a hung parliament arrives on May 7th?

Several factors defi ne the options:

• Protocol countsAs outgoing PM, Gordon Brown will be asked if he can form a government. Only if he says “no” does the Leader of the Opposition get a chance.

• Can two tango?Nick Clegg will be hoping that if there isn’t a clear winner, that he is in a position to do a deal with either of the main parties. If that can only happen with one it weakens Clegg’s negotiating position.

• Is three a crowd?Maybe adding the Liberal Democrats alone is not enough. That’s dream time for the Nationalists!

• Will the Liberal Democrats play ball at all?Nick Clegg and Vince Cable know the risks. They could alienate supporters and activists from the opposite wing of their party to that of their coalition choice. Equally if they don’t ‘go in’ they risk credibility and the backing of the activists and supporters closer to whichever of main player makes the offer.

So damned if they do, and damned if they don’t? One thing’s for sure, with Parliament projected to contain 40 – 50 percent fi rst time MPs, the biggest shake-up since the Second World War; we can expect to see an unprecedented new chapter in British politics.

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On the morning of May 7th we will be waking up to one of three scenarios – the same Government, a Cameron Government or a hung Parliament. Throughout the campaign, the latter two options have seemed the more likely outcomes. So let me take them in reverse order.

I predict that if we do end up with no party in overall control then we won’t see the creation of a formal coalition between a big party and a small one. Instead, the Prime Minister will be running the gauntlet of the division lobbies on each and every issue, taking control of the nation and its defi cit, and eye ball to eye ball with the other parties who might not welcome his threat of an early fresh election.

With nearly 150 MPs standing down at the election, the scale of turnover in MPs will make the next Parliament look and feel very different. There is an unpredictability about the new Members, with many likely to be voting on local issues and independent agendas. The ability of the whips to deliver votes may be reduced and the impact of the churn is yet to be seen.

The possibility that the Tories might just out-do their performance in every general election

since the war to win outright still remains high, in which case David Cameron will be presiding over a parliament with a huge number of new MPs.

How this cast of characters will bed down in the new Parliament that will have squeamish decisions to take on tax and spend remains to be seen. However, Prime Minister Cameron does have a deep pool of talent from which to draw. George Osborne has been a close ally and fundamental member of the Cameron campaign and will be rewarded with the keys to Number Eleven should the Tories triumph.

With nearly 150 MPs standing down at the election, the scale of turnover in MPs will make the next Parliament look and feel very different.

A Cameron Government?

Andrew MacKayFormer Conservative MP and nowSenior Adviser, Burson-Marsteller UK

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I’d expect William Hague to remain at the Foreign Offi ce where as the (intellectual!) John Prescott of his era, he would be the fi gure to whom David Cameron – and natural Tories – could turn for advice and reassurance from its traditional roots.

Michael Gove has the responsibility of making sure the Tories’ fl agship education policy, raising standards in schools including giving every parent access to a good school on the Swedish model, has taken root by the next election. Jeremy Hunt and Greg Clarke could well be given promotions. Another high priority legislative area for the Conservatives, likely to appear quickly in Parliament, would be reform of public services to deliver better value for money through decentralisation, accountability and transparency with particular emphasis on encouragement to form employee led co-operatives.

Of course, there remains the third possible outcome of this general election – the re-election of the Government we already have. A victory for the beleaguered Prime Minister would be a personal triumph for Gordon Brown, achieved against the odds and tasting particularly sweet after years in Tony Blair’s shadow. It would undoubtedly leave the Prime Minister and his Chancellor-in-waiting Ed Balls, masters of all they survey. The question then arises, would it be business as usual, or an emboldened Gordon Brown seeking to govern more in his own image?

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About Burson-Marsteller

Burson-Marsteller is a leading global public relations and public affairs fi rm whose knowledge, strategic insights and innovative programs help drive strong corporate and brand reputations for its clients. In Europe, Middle East and Africa our network provides clients with the ultimate offer in public relations, integrated communications and public affairs services.

Established in 1967 Burson-Marsteller’s London offi ce is the group’s largest in Europe and the third biggest in the world-wide network, serving national clients and acting as a hub for international clients wishing to access Europe.

Burson-Marsteller applies deep, local knowledge in a global context. We create compelling, campaign orientated ideas that communicate our clients’ vision and bring their corporate personalities to life.

Research and innovation underpins all that we do. Burson-Marsteller’s unique sources of business and political intelligence guide our client brand decisions. Our CEO and corporate reputation studies are regarded as leading edge in this fi eld. Clients are a broad range of UK specifi c and multinational companies and organisations in the public or private sectors.

These include professional, government and non-profi t organisations as well as dynamic new market entrants and some of the world’s most famous brands. Burson-Marsteller London leads a number of global client relationships.

Our work

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Practices

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Contact

Matt Carter, Chief Executive

Burson-Marsteller24-28 Bloomsbury WayLondon WC1A 2PX

Telephone: +44 (0)20 7300 6234Email: [email protected]

www.bursonmarsteller.co.uk

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