Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss
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Transcript of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on
Job Creation and Job Loss
Pat GetzSeptember 24, 2009
APDU Conference
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Industry Employment Statistics Series
Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Business Employment Dynamics (BED)
Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)
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CES Program
CES, also known as the payroll survey, is the earliest data available; one month lag from reference month
Provides estimates of net employment change, average hours, and nominal and real earnings, by industry
National, States, and Metropolitan areas
Top line series date back to 1939
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CES Derivation and Use
Based on a monthly nationwide sample of about 380,000 business establishments
Benchmarked annually to administrative records from the UI tax system through the BLS QCEW program
Major analytical use: timely measure of net employment change
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120,000
122,500
125,000
127,500
130,000
132,500
135,000
137,500
140,000
120,000
122,500
125,000
127,500
130,000
132,500
135,000
137,500
140,000
1999-2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, September 4, 2009.
Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.
B-1. Employment in total nonfarm
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
August 2009
Level: 131,223
Change: -216
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-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Months
July 1990
March 2001
December 2007
from beginning of recession*, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, September 4, 2009.*Note: Business cycle peak as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent two months are preliminary.
B-2. Percentage change in total nonfarm employment,
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-72
-144 -122-160
-137-161
-128-175
-321
-380
-597
-681
-741
-681-652
-519
-303
-463
-276
-216
-900
-750
-600
-450
-300
-150
0
B-3. Employment in total nonfarm
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, September 4, 2009.Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.
Over-the-month change, 2008-09
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-8
-65
-63
-17
-10
-1
0
-10
-28
-22
52
-21
-5
-18
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Over-the-month change, August 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, September 4, 2009.
Note: Data are preliminary.
B-5. Employment in total nonfarm
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
-216Total nonfarm:
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QCEW Program
Quarterly release of monthly employment series, and quarterly wage totals
Published 7 months after the end of the quarter (March data released in October)
National, State, counties by detailed industry
Data more extensive than CES, but released 6 months later
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QCEW Derivation and Use
Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records
Universe count, not a sample, allowing for publication of extensive industry and geographic detail
Cells with small number of establishments are suppressed for confidentiality reasons
Major analytical use – trends at detailed industry/geographic levels
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BED Series
Quarterly series on gross job gains andgross job losses, derived from the QCEW
Gross job gains are composed of: Expansions and Openings
Gross job losses are composed of: Contractions and Closings
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BED Series
Recent enhancements now allow further breakouts:
Openings divides into business births and seasonal re-openings
Closings divides into business deaths and seasonal closings
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BED Series
National series by industry, size class
States series for Total Private (no industry or size breakouts)
Quarterly series with an 8-month lag (Q1/March data published in November)
Series begin in 1992
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BED Analytical Uses
Disaggregation of net employment changes into component pieces at the business establishment level
Analysis of trends from each component
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JOLTS
Job Openings, Hires, Total Separations
Separations divided into Quits, Layoffs, and Other separations
National and Regional data Published with a 2-month lag from
the reference period (e.g. July data published 2nd week in September)
Series begin in 2000
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JOLTS Derivation
Based on a monthly sample of about 10,000 business establishments
Benchmarked monthly to CES employment
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JOLTS analytical uses
Disaggregation of net employment change into hires and separations
Job openings series complements unemployment rate (labor demand vs labor supply)
Quits series measure workers willingness and ability to change jobs
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JOLTS Quits and Layoffs & Discharges Levels, Total Nonfarm, seasonally adjusted
23
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JOLTS Hires and Total Separations and CES Employment, Total Nonfarm, seasonally
adjusted
24
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The Unemployment Rate and the Job Openings Rate, Total Nonfarm, seasonally
adjusted
25
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For Further Information
BLS published series and technical information is online at:
bls.gov
My contact information:[email protected]