Bulk Commodity Price Index 2016 Sample

Bulk Commodity Price Index®

Dec 2016

Past results are no guarantee of future performance. Commodity investing can be very volatile,

risky, and no one should consider any commodity based investment unless they understand the

risks and are a qualified investor. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, we

does not guarantee accuracy of results presented.

Contact : Daejin Lee / [email protected] / www.JinreSearch.com

mailto:[email protected]

BCPI® Summary 2016

2

Commodity 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016Yearly Change

EnergyBrent 632 843 843 910 806 -16.0%

Steam 825 849 1048 1513 1050 11.8%

Steel

Rebar 752 864 948 1102 913 9.2%

Iron Ore 682 781 817 980 812 4.2%

Coking 695 832 1079 2433 1236 56.4%

Grain

Soybean 878 1057 1006 999 986 4.6%

Wheat 801 814 705 699 755 -13.4%

Corn 917 991 841 882 908 -4.5%

Sugar 1014 1203 1436 1481 1282 38.5%

BaseMetal

Nickel 567 588 684 722 639 -19.0%

Alum 820 851 877 925 867 -4.6%

Copper 749 758 764 841 776 -11.6%

BCPI (Jan 2015 = 1000)

719 825 869 1059 863 -2.6%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Energy Steel Grain Base Metal

BCPI 2016

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q



BCPI® Energy 2016

BCPI® Steel 2016

3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Brent Steam

BCPI ENERGY 2016

2015 2016 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Rebar I'Ore Coking

BCPI STEEL 2016

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q



BCPI® Grain 2016

BCPI® Base Metal 2016

4

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

S'bean Wheat Corn Sugar

BCPI GRAIN 2016

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nickel Aluminium Copper

BCPI BASE METAL 2016

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q



BCPI® Dec 2016

5

Commodity Unit Dec 2016 Nov 2016 MoM Dec 2015 YoY

EnergyBrent US$/bbl 55 47 16.2% 39 40.3%

Steam US$/t 87 103 -15.6% 52 66.6%

Steel

Rebar RMB/t 3255 2879 13.1% 1692 92.4%

Iron Ore US$/t 80 72 10.7% 40 98.6%

Coking US$/t 268 300 -10.7% 75 258.5%

Grain

Soybean ￠/bu 1025 1007 1.8% 880 16.5%

Wheat ￠/bu 406 403 0.8% 474 -14.3%

Corn ￠/bu 336 336 0.0% 369 -9.2%

Sugar ￠/lb 19 21 -10.1% 15 25.1%

BaseMetal

Nickel US$/t 11181 11123 0.5% 8732 28.0%

Alum US$/t 1733 1733 0.0% 1498 15.7%

Copper US$/t 5696 5425 5.0% 4633 22.9%

BCPI (Jan 2015 = 1000)

825 825 -2.6% -2.6% -2.6%

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

( Jan 2015 = 1000)

BCPI Iron Ore Brent Rebar Steam CoalCoking Coal Soybean Wheat Corn SugarNickel Aluminium Copper



BDI & BCPI® Correlation

Major Commodity Indices & BCPI

6

60

70

80

90

100

110

120(Jan 2015 = 100 )

CCI S&P Bloomberg RICI LMEX BCPI

* 5 days moving average graph

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

BCPIBDIBDI BCPI(right)



BCPI® Energy

Energy Commodities

7


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

'14.9

'14.1

2

'15.3

'15.6

'15.9

'15.1

2

'16.3

'16.6

'16.9

'16.1

2

Brent

($/bbl)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

'15.4 '15.7 '15.10 '16.1 '16.4 '16.7 '16.10

Steam Coal

($/ton)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

( Jan 2015 = 1000)BCPI

Brent

Steam Coal



BCPI® Steel

Steel Making Commodities

8

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

'14

.4

'14

.7

'14

.10

'15.

1

'15.

4

'15.

7

'15.

10

'16

.1

'16

.4

'16

.7

Coking Coal($/ton)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

'14

.1

'14

.4

'14

.7

'14

.10

'15.

1

'15.

4

'15.

7

'15.

10

'16

.1

'16

.4

'16

.7

(US$/t)(RMB/t)Iron Ore (Right)

Rebar

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500


( Jan 2015 = 1000) BCPI Iron Ore Coking Coal Rebar



BCPI® Grain

Grain

9


250

350

450

550

650

750

850

'14

.2

'14

.5

'14

.8

'14

.11

'15.

2

'15.

5

'15.

8

'15.

11

'16

.2

'16

.5

'16

.8

Wheat Corn

(cent/bushel)

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

'14

.2

'14

.5

'14

.8

'14

.11

'15.

2

'15.

5

'15.

8

'15.

11

'16

.2

'16

.5

'16

.8

Soybean

(cent/bushel)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500


( Jan 2015 = 1000)

BCPI Soybean Wheat Corn Sugar



BCPI® Base Metal

Base Metal

10


500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200


( Jan 2015 = 1000)

BCPI Nickel Aluminium Copper

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

'14

.9

'14

.12

'15.

3

'15.

6

'15.

9

'15.

12

'16

.3

'16

.6

'16

.9

'16

.12

Copper

($/ton)

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

'14

.8

'14

.11

'15.

2

'15.

5

'15.

8

'15.

11

'16

.2

'16

.5

'16

.8

'16

.11

Nickel

($/ton)



BCPI® Methodology

1. Commodity Prices at 2nd Jan 2015

BCPI® index is an assessment of the average price of the 12 major bulk materials, taking the prices on January 2 2015 at 1,000 pts. The index value is calculated as the average of the index for each commodities multiplied by the corresponding weights derived from seaborne bulk trade volume in 2015

1. Brent: Brent Crude Oil Price, Unit: USD/barrel, Source: ICE2. Rebar: Steel Rebar Price, Unit: RMB/ton, Source: SHFE3. Iron Ore: Iron Ore 62% CFR China, Unit: USD/ton, Source: Metal Bulletin4. Steam Coal: Newcastle Coal Futures (NCF), Unit: USD/ton, Source: ICE5. Coking Coal: Prem Low Vol HCC / Australia FOB, Unit: $/t, Source: SBB6. Soybean: US Soybean Price, Unit:￠/bu(bushel), Source: CME(CBOT)7. Wheat: Chicago SRW Wheat Futures, Unit: US￠/bu, Source: CME(CBOT)8. Corn: US Corn Price, Corn Futures, Unit: US￠/bu, Source: CME(CBOT)9. Sugar: No. 11 Sugar Futures, Unit: ￠/lb, Source: CME(NYBOT)

10. Nickel: LME Nickel Price Unit: USD/MT, Source: LME11. Aluminium: LME Aluminum Price, Unit: USD/MT, Source: LME12. Copper: LME NC Price Unit: USD/MT, Source: LME

2. Index weighting as per seaborne bulk trade volume in 2015

3. Commodity Index Methodology links

LMEX: https://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lmexRogers: http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/weight.aspBloomberg: http://www.bloombergindices.com/CCI: http://online.thomsonreuters.com/indices/S&P GSCI: http://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/index.html

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Brent Rebar I'Ore Steam Coking S'bean Wheat Corn Sugar Nickel Alum Copper BCPI

56 2556 71 61 110 1003 581 396 14 15000 1848 6247 1000

$/bbl RMB/t $/t $/t $/t ￠/bu ￠/bu ￠/bu ￠/lb $/t $/t $/t pt

Volume Crude Steel I’Ore Steam Coking S’bean Wheat Corn Sugar Nickel Bauxite Other

Million Ton 1943 323 1365 883 252 128 319 56 56 44 124 1208

Weighting 29.2% 4.9% 20.5% 13.3% 3.8% 1.9% 4.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.9% 18.2%


https://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lmex

http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/weight.asp

http://www.bloombergindices.com/

http://online.thomsonreuters.com/indices/

http://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/index.html


12

Thank you

Previous Reports :

(1) Bulk Supply : The Seeds of Recovery

(2) Tanker Supply : Oil Prices and Oversupply)

(3) Coal Trade Market : The end of the coal era, soon or yet?

(4) Iron Ore Trade Market : Chinese steel market

(5) Understanding Bulk Shipping Market

(6) Shipping Market Chartpack 2016

(7) Shipping Supply Chartpack 2016

We invite any comments and/or questions you may have. If you need bespoke reports & analysis, we would love to meet specific client needs. To discuss any individual requirements please contact below

Daejin Lee / Commodity Research / Shipping / FFA

Mob: +82-10-3462-5311

Email: [email protected]

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission.

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Bulk Commodity Price Index 2016 Sample

Data & Analytics

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