Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1) WTO membership since 1996 ...
-
Upload
bruce-foster -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
2
Transcript of Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade. Preferential Market Access (1) WTO membership since 1996 ...
Bulgarian Market Access Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade& Foreign Trade
Bulgarian Market Access Bulgarian Market Access & Foreign Trade& Foreign Trade
Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1)Preferential Market Access (1) WTO membership since 1996WTO membership since 1996 European Union Association AgreementEuropean Union Association Agreement EFTA AgreementEFTA Agreement CEFTA membershipCEFTA membership Free Trade Area with TurkeyFree Trade Area with Turkey Effective Free Trade Agreements with Macedonia, Effective Free Trade Agreements with Macedonia,
Lithuania, Israel and EstoniaLithuania, Israel and Estonia Pending ratification of a Free Trade Agreement with Pending ratification of a Free Trade Agreement with
Latvia and FR YugoslaviaLatvia and FR Yugoslavia
Free Trade Agreement With:
European UnionEFTACEFTAMacedoniaTurkeyEstoniaLithuaniaIsrael
Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)Preferential Market Access (2)
Source: National Statistics Institute
55.754.851.352.150.444.240.139.3
7.2
4.64.6
7.27.9
7.78.3
10.8
4.29.0
17.9
6.1 5.812.4
17.619.3
5.33.9 3.5 3.2 4.9 4.4 4.0 4.8
14.714.315.212.412.113.611.511.9
12.918.8 17.9 16.7 15.5 14.1 12.5 11.7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Other
Other from OECD
CEFTA
CIS
Balkan
EU
Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Exports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)
51.149.448.445.237.135.837.3
44.0
0.8
1.3
0.8
1.5
0.8 0.61.5
1.3
18.623.524.933.736.0
23.727.8
35.5
7.37.68.76.45.54.94.54.1
8.38.1 8.05.8 5.1 7.27.5 7.9
13.99.511.113.014.715.717.115.9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Other
Other from OECD
CEFTA
CIS
Balkan
EU
Source: National Statistics Institute
Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)Imports (by Region, %, 1995- 11/2002)
Source: National Statistics Institute
2.93.1
4.54.85.4
9.39.59.6
15.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Italy Germany Turkey Greece France Belgium USA Spain UK
1999 2000 2001 2002
Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)Exports (by Country, %, 1999-11/2002)
Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)Bulgarian Export Growth (%)
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
5.2
5.7
-4.5
20.4
-5.6
2.6
-12.8
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Q1-Q3 2002
Bulgarian ExportsBulgarian Exports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)
Bulgarian ExportsBulgarian Exports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)
Textile & leather materials, clothing,
footwear28%
Animal & vegetable products, food, drinks and tobacco products
9%
Wood, paper, earthenware and
glass products5%
Macnines, transport facilities, appliances
and tools12%
Chemical products plastics and rubber
12%
Mineral products and fuels16%
Base metals and their products
18%
Source: National Statistics Institute
Bulgarian ImportsBulgarian Imports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)
Bulgarian ImportsBulgarian Imports(by Commodity Groups, 2001)(by Commodity Groups, 2001)
Chemical products plastics and rubber
12%
Macnines, transport facilities, appliances
and tools29%
Animal & vegetable products, food, drinks and tobacco products
6%
Base metals and their products
6%Wood, paper,
earthenware and glass products
4%
Textile & leather materials, clothing,
footwear16%
Mineral products and fuels27%
Source: National Statistics Institute
Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank
-3.5-6.2-5.6-5.0
-0.5
10.1
1.7
-8.5
-11.7-9.3-8.3
-3.0
3.11.2
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002ECurrent Account Trade Account
Bulgaria
CEE Countries (2001)
-1.0-1.8
-3.9-4.8-4.8
-5.9-6.2-8.0
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Slovakia Bulgaria Romania PolandCzech
Republic Croatia Slovenia Hungary
Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)Current and Trade Account Deficit/Surplus (% GDP)
Current Account Deficit Largely Covered Current Account Deficit Largely Covered by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)
Current Account Deficit Largely Covered Current Account Deficit Largely Covered by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)by FDI (USD m, 1998-2002)
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
61
652702
842
131
537
1001
694
314
819
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 Q1-Q3 2002
Current account deficit FDI
Foreign Trade Projections Foreign Trade Projections Up to 2005Up to 2005
Foreign Trade Projections Foreign Trade Projections Up to 2005Up to 2005
Improving trade balance Improving trade balance – trade deficit to drop from USD1.3m in 2001 to USD0.9 trade deficit to drop from USD1.3m in 2001 to USD0.9
mm Exports will continue to grow, reaching a 46% increase Exports will continue to grow, reaching a 46% increase
compared to 2001compared to 2001 Imports will continue to grow, reaching a 26% increase Imports will continue to grow, reaching a 26% increase
compared to 2001compared to 2001 Exports/imports ratio will increase to 0.82 (from a current Exports/imports ratio will increase to 0.82 (from a current
value of 0.74)value of 0.74) No major changes in commodity groups’ relative shares of No major changes in commodity groups’ relative shares of
exports and importsexports and imports
Trade Forecast - European UnionTrade Forecast - European Union(USD mln)(USD mln)
Trade Forecast - European UnionTrade Forecast - European Union(USD mln)(USD mln)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
exports imports
Source: Ministry of Economy