Bulgarian Competitiveness: A Framework and Preliminary ... Files...This presentation draws on ideas...
Transcript of Bulgarian Competitiveness: A Framework and Preliminary ... Files...This presentation draws on ideas...
This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the
Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report (World Economic Forum), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for
Companies and Governments” in On Competition (Harvard Business School Press, 2008), and ongoing research on clusters and competitiveness. No part of this
publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise -
without the permission of Michael E. Porter. Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at
www.isc.hbs.edu
Bulgarian Competitiveness:
A Framework and Preliminary Evidence
Professor Michael E. Porter
Harvard Business School
Visit of President of Bulgaria Rosen Plevneliev Boston, MA
September 27, 2012
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Agenda
• Bulgaria’s Performance
• Diagnosing Competitiveness
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Prosperity Performance EU Countries
Source: EIU (2012); author’s calculations
Austria Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
PPP-Adjusted GDP per Capita, 2010 ($USD)
Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000-2010
Luxembourg
(5.16%, $87.716) EU Average: 4.55%
EU Average: $30,809
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Income Inequality Selected Countries
Index of Inequality (2006)*
Note: * latest data available used (in some cases earlier years data used)
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2008, United Nations University (UNU-WIDER)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Change in Inequality, 2006 versus 2002
France
UK
Finland Germany
Italy
Latvia
Sweden
Costa Rica
Lithuania
Ireland
Czech Rep.
Bolivia
Poland
Colombia
Mexico
Slovenia
USA
Austria
Georgia
New Zealand Pakistan
Hungary
Romania
Vietnam
Turkey
Slovakia
Denmark
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Spain
Peru
Bangladesh
Portugal Indonesia
China
Argentina
Philippines Russia
Chile
India
Taiwan
Nicaragua
Malaysia Ukraine
Jordan
Jamaica
Uruguay
Croatia
Bosnia Serbia
El Salvador
Moldova
Paraguay
Brazil
Honduras
Cambodia
Belgium
Tajikistan
Kyrgyz Republic
Kazakhstan
Dominican Republic Ecuador
Panama
Greece
Netherlands
Australia
Egypt
Estonia
Macedonia
Albania
Guatemala
Improving Worsening
High inequality
Low inequality
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Workforce Participation EU Countries
Source: EIU (2012), author’s calculations
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic Denmark Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
32.0%
37.0%
42.0%
47.0%
52.0%
57.0%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Labor Force Participation (2010)
Change in Labor Force Participation Rate, 2000-2010
EU Average: 2.02%
EU Average: 47.57%
Improving Participation Declining Participation
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Unemployment Performance EU Countries
Source: EIU (2012), author’s calculations
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Unemployment Rate (%), 2010
Change in Unemployment Rate in Percentage Points, 2000-2010
EU Average: 0.99%
EU Average: 9.19%
Worsening Unemployment
Improving
Unemployment
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Productivity
Country Competitive Environment
Domestic
investment Imports
Outbound
foreign direct
investment
Domestic
innovation
Inbound
foreign direct
investment
Exports
Intermediate Indicators and Enablers of
Productivity
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Domestic Investment Performance EU Countries
Note: Includes inbound FDI
Source: EIU (2012)
Austria Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
-12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Gross Fixed Investment (% of GDP),
2010
Change in Gross Fixed Investment (% of GDP), 2000-2010
EU Average: -3.06%
EU Average: 19.13%
Increasing Domestic Investment
Decreasing
Domestic Investment
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Export Performance EU Countries
Source: EIU (2012), authors calculations
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Exports of Goods and Services (% of GDP),
2010
Change in Exports of Goods and Services (% of GDP), 2000-2010
EU Average: 5.12%
EU Average: 59.34%
Luxembourg
(14.99%, 164.99%)
Increasing Exports Decreasing Exports
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Import Performance EU Countries
Source: EIU (2012), authors calculations
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Netherlands
Poland Portugal Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP),
2010
Change in Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP), 2000-2010
EU Average: 2.29%
EU Average: 57.11%
Luxembourg
(4.81%, 133.80%)
Increasing Imports Decreasing Imports
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Source: USPTO (2010), Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database (2010)
Average U.S. utility patents per 1 million population, 2007-2009
CAGR of US-registered patents, 1999 - 2009
Innovative Output Selected Countries
10,000 patents (avg. 1999 – 2009) =
China
India
Russia
South Africa
Brazil
Malaysia
Argentina
Thailand
Venezuela Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Philippines
Croatia
Colombia
Bulgaria
Romania
Indonesia
Egypt
Costa Rica
Slovakia
United Arab Emirates
Belarus
Kenya
Lithuania
Ecuador Peru
Uruguay
Chile
Estonia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%
Increasing Number of Patents
Decreasing Number of
Patents
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Inbound Foreign Investment Performance Stocks and Flows, EU Countries
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report (2011)
Austria
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Inward FDI Stocks as % of GDP, Average 1999-
2009
FDI Inflows as % of Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Average 1999-2009
EU Average: 29.76%
EU Average: 49.00%
United Kingdom
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Agenda
• Bulgaria’s Performance
• Diagnosing Competitiveness
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• Endowments, i.e. natural resources, geographical location, and size, create a foundation for
prosperity, but true prosperity is created by productivity in the use of endowments
Endowments
What Determines Competitiveness?
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• Macroeconomic competitiveness sets the economy-wide context for high productivity to emerge, but is
not sufficient to achieve this outcome
• Endowments, i.e. natural resources, geographical location, and size, create a foundation for
prosperity, but true prosperity is created by productivity in the use of endowments
Endowments
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
What Determines Competitiveness?
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Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
Endowments
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
• Fiscal Policy:
Public spending aligned
with revenues over time
• Monetary Policy:
Low levels of inflation
• Economic Stabilization:
Avoiding structural
imbalances and cyclical
overheating
Monetary and Fiscal
Policies
What Determines Competitiveness?
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• Human Development:
Basic education, health
care, equal opportunity
• Rule of Law:
Property rights and due
process
• Political Institutions:
Stable and effective
political and governmental
processes and
organizations
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
Endowments
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
What Determines Competitiveness?
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• Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the
sophistication of local competition revealed at the level of regions and clusters
• Macroeconomic competitiveness sets the economy-wide context for high productivity to emerge, but is
not sufficient to achieve this outcome
• Endowments, i.e. natural resources, geographical location, and size, create a foundation for
prosperity, but true prosperity is created by productivity in the use of endowments
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Sophistication
of Company
Operations and
Strategy
Quality of the
Business
Environment
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
State of Cluster
Development
Endowments
What Determines Competitiveness?
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Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Sophistication
of Company
Operations and
Strategy
Quality of the
National
Business
Environment
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
State of Cluster
Development
Endowments
The external business
environment conditions
that enable company
productivity and
innovation
What Determines Competitiveness?
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Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Sophistication
of Company
Operations and
Strategy
Quality of the
National
Business
Environment
Macroeconomic
Policies
Social
Infrastructure
and Political
Institutions
State of Cluster
Development
Endowments
A critical mass of firms
and institutions in each
field to harness
efficiencies and
externalities across
related entities
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
What Determines Competitiveness?
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Internal skills, capabilities,
and management practices
needed for companies to
attain the highest level of
productivity and innovation
possible given external
conditions
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Sophistication
of Company
Operations and
Strategy
Quality of the
National
Business
Environment
Macroeconomic
Policies
Social
Infrastructure
and Political
Institutions
State of Cluster
Development
Endowments
Human
Development
and Political
Institutions
Monetary and
Fiscal Policies
What Determines Competitiveness?
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Benchmarking Competitiveness Bulgaria’s Competitiveness Profile, 2011
Bulgaria’s GDP per
capita rank is 57th
versus 132 countries
Note: Rank versus 132 countries; overall, Iceland ranks 57th in PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 75th in Global Competitiveness
Source: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard University (2011), based in part on survey data from the World Economic Forum.
Macroeconomic
Competitiveness
75
Political Institutions
105
Rule of Law
96
Human
Development
59
Microeconomic
Competitiveness
82
Macroeconomic
Policy
39
National Business
Environment
78
Company Operations
and Strategy
96
Country Competitiveness
75
Significant
advantage
Moderate
advantage Neutral
Moderate
disadvantage
Significant
disadvantage
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Corruption Perception Index, 2010
Note: Ranks only countries available in both years (160 countries total)
Source: Global Corruption Report, 2010
High corruption
Low corruption
Worsening Improving
Change in Rank, Global Corruption Report, 2010 versus 2006
Rank in Global
Corruption Index,
2010
Botswana
Albania
Algeria
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Belarus
Benin Bolivia
Brazil Bulgaria
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Costa Rica
Côte d´Ivoire
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Estonia
Ethiopia
Finland
France
Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Lithuania Macau
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
Nepal
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sudan
Swaziland
Sweden Switzerland
Syria
Taiwan
Thailand Trinidad and
Tobago
Turkey
Uganda
Ukraine
United Kingdom Uruguay
U.S.
Venezuela
Viet Nam
Zambia
Zimbabwe
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Microeconomic Competitiveness Indicators Ease of Doing Business Rankings (Bulgaria, 2012)
Ranking, 2010 (vs. 183 countries)
Source: World Bank Report, Doing Business (2012).
Favorable Unfavorable
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ease of
Doing
Business
Rank
Getting Credit Protecting
Investors
Starting a
Business
Registering
Property
Paying Taxes Enforcing
Contracts
Resolving
Insolvency
Trading
Across
Borders
Dealing with
Construction
Permits
Getting
Electricity
Bulgaria’s GDP per capita rank: 57
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Composition of Exports Bulgaria’s Exports By Type of Good
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Processed Goods
Semi-processed Goods
Unprocessed Goods
Services
TOTAL
World Export Market Share (current USD)
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; Richard Bryden, Project Director.
Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics.
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Bulgaria’s National Cluster Export Portfolio 2000-2010
Bulgaria’s Overall
World Export Share: 0.16%
Change in Bulgaria’s Overall
World Export Share: 0.07%
Tobacco
(0.70%, 1.08%)
= $350 million
Metal Mining and Manufacturing
Hospitality and Tourism
Agricultural Products
Oil and Gas Products
Apparel
Transportation and Logistics
Building Fixtures and Equipment
Communications Services
Production Technology
Power and Power Generation Equipment
Lighting and Electrical Equipment
Motor Driven Products
Communications Equipment
Chemical Products
Automotive
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
-0.05% 0.05% 0.15% 0.25% 0.35% 0.45%
Wo
rld
Ex
po
rt M
ark
et
Sh
are
, 2
01
0
Change in World Export Market Share, 2000-2010
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Aerospace
Vehicles &
Defense
Furniture Building
Fixtures,
Equipment &
Services
Fishing &
Fishing
Products
Hospitality
& Tourism Agricultural
Products
Transportation
& Logistics
Cluster Linkages and Economic Diversification Bulgaria, 2010
Plastics
Oil &
Gas
Chemical
Products
Biopharma-
ceuticals
Power
Generation
Lightning &
Electrical
Equipment
Financial
Services
Publishing
& Printing
Aerospace
Engines
Business
Services
Distribution
Services
Forest
Products
Heavy
Construction
Services
Construction
Materials
Prefabricated
Enclosures
Heavy
Machinery
Sporting
& Recreation
Goods
Automotive
Production
Technology Motor Driven
Products
Mining & Metal
Manufacturing
Apparel
Leather &
Related
Products
Jewelry &
Precious
Metals
Textiles
Footwear
Processed
Food
Tobacco
Enter-
tainment
Information
Tech.
Medical
Devices
Analytical
Instruments Education &
Knowledge
Creation Communi-
cations
Equipment
0.04% - 0.15%
0.16% - 0.39%
> 0.40%
World Market Share
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Established Bulgarian Export Products Leading Exports by World Share, 2010
Change in Share Export Value
Rank Industry Cluster World Export Share (2000-2010) (in $ thousands)
1 Monofilament of ethylene Plastics 6.43% 5.77% $13,883
2 Carbonates, percarbonates Chemical Products 4.31% 4.25% $184,905
3 Cinematograph film, exposed and developed Entertainment and Reproduction Equipment 3.35% 2.43% $21,200
4 Lead Metal Mining and Manufacturing 3.14% 0.61% $174,510
5 Miscellaneous footwear with leather uppers Footwear 2.74% -0.40% $13,801
6 Pulley tackle and hoists Production Technology 2.60% 1.57% $28,960
7 Wine, cider or similar beverage making machinery Processed Food 2.51% 2.08% $5,614
8 Women’s or girls’ blouses, shirts and shirt-blouses, knitted Apparel 2.41% 1.06% $134,417
9 Copper bars, rods and profiles Metal Mining and Manufacturing 2.41% 2.40% $134,702
10 Copper, copper anodes and alloys Metal Mining and Manufacturing 2.14% -0.18% $1,593,226
11 Copper plates, sheets and strip, 15mm+ thickness Metal Mining and Manufacturing 2.01% 2.01% $194,807
12 Miscellaneous simply shaped wood Building Fixtures and Equipment 1.95% 1.65% $4,616
13 Medicaments containing alkaloid Biopharmaceuticals 1.83% 1.78% $64,370
14 Yarn of wool or animal hair Textiles 1.83% 1.80% $56,282
15 Ceramic plumbing fixtures Construction Materials 1.82% 0.41% $70,998
16 Tobacco, unmanufactured Tobacco 1.77% 0.94% $191,240
17 Copper mattes; cement copper Metal Mining and Manufacturing 1.67% $7,366
18 Zinc Metal Mining and Manufacturing 1.65% 0.17% $189,208
19 Barley, unmilled Agricultural Products 1.61% 1.05% $79,445
20 Tobacco working machinery Production Technology 1.58% 0.81% $9,671
21 Dairy machinery Processed Food 1.57% 1.24% $8,032
22 Fuel wood, wood charcoal Forest Products 1.57% 0.17% $15,702
23 Precious metal waste and scrap Jewelry, Precious Metals and Collectibles 1.54% $192,529
24 Miscellaneous measuring, controlling and scientific instrumentsAnalytical Instruments 1.49% 1.46% $121,428
25 Monofilament of vinyl chloride Plastics 1.42% 1.42% $40,260
26 Men’s or boys’ suits and ensembles Apparel 1.41% 0.33% $61,306
27 Densified, reconstituted wood Building Fixtures and Equipment 1.39% 1.20% $90,637
28 Wheat, meslin, unmilled Agricultural Products 1.39% 1.03% $451,936
29 Parts of footwear; removable in-soles and similar articles Footwear 1.38% 0.19% $94,152
30 Electric current Power and Power Generation Equipment 1.38% $444,712
31 Other cereal meal, flours Processed Food 1.21% 1.19% $12,103
32 Women’s or girls’ jackets Apparel 1.19% 0.43% $69,112
33 Plants for pharmacy, perfumery, or for insecticidal purposes Agricultural Products 1.16% -0.28% $23,955
34 Glass containers Processed Food 1.16% 0.65% $88,658
35 Aluminum tubes and pipes Building Fixtures and Equipment 1.14% 1.13% $22,441
36 Household glassware Building Fixtures and Equipment 1.11% 1.03% $92,815
37 Men’s or boys’ jackets and blazers Apparel 1.05% 0.41% $44,091
38 Oilseed (soft fix vegetable oil) Agricultural Products 1.04% 0.95% $562,108
39 Rice in the husk Agricultural Products 1.02% 0.98% $10,465
40 Cigarettes containing tobacco Tobacco 0.98% 0.81% $167,103