Building resilience to extreme weather in the south west.

Building resilience to extreme weather in the south west

Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

“The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level as risen and concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5 WGI September 2013

Weather versus climate?


Climate - the average weather in a locality over a period of 30 years or more

Weather – what is happening outside right now

Mitigation – reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)

Adaptation – preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

What we have seen so far


2014: flooding and...?2000: flooding

2001: flooding

2003: heat wave

2005: flooding

2006: droughtheat wave

2008: floodingsnow & ice

2007: flooding



2012: droughtflooding

2013: heat waveflooding

storm

What can we expect by 2050s


Overall increase in temperature 2.7°C

Increased winter precipitation 17%

Decreased summer precipitation 20%

Rising sea levels 26-29cm

More frequent & intense extreme weather

• Mitigationreducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Adaptionpreparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change


What have we seen so far?


Between 1961 and 2006:

Average summer temp. increased by 1.41 °CSummer precipitation decreased by 8.8%Winter precipitation increased by 15.9%

Sea level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since 1920

10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997

What we are seeing now


• Prolonged unsettled weather

• Cold snap in North America

• Storms expected

• Location and strength of jet stream brings storms across Atlantic

• Active area of research

What does it really mean?


Biotechnology

Built environment

Water resources & water quality

Advanced engineering & aerospace

Coastal areasForestry

Agriculture & horticulture

Biodiversity, habitat, conservation & landscapes

Sea fisheries

River flooding & drainage

HousingHealthHeritage

Transport

Environmental technologies

Financial services

Food & drink

Marine Tourism & leisure

Our economy

Our society

Our natural environment

2014, weather or climate?

• Intensity of winter storms is increasing• Intensity of heavy rainfall is increasingHOWEVER.....• Direct attribution is not possible at the

moment

Impacts for agriculture & forestry


Challenges• Increased risk of disease • Heat stress to poultry and livestock • Increased risk of drought • Loss of productive land due to sea level

rise• Increased soil erosion and run-off

Opportunities• New crop varieties• Reduced frost damage• Longer growing seasons• Improved land management and

woodland creation

Impacts for biodiversity


Challenges• Risk to drought vulnerable species

• Increased visitor pressure on natural environment

• Invasive non-native flora and fauna

• Change in SW natural environment

Opportunities• Flora and fauna move to northern

distributions

• Integrated land management and habitat creation

© RSPB

Impacts for business and utilities


Challenges• Business continuity • Recovery costs from events• Increased insurance costs• Health and safety risks• Disruption to supply chain / movement

of goods and services

Opportunities• New market opportunities – goods and

services• Recreational and leisure opportunities• Opportunities to enhance reputation• Reduced energy demand in winter

Impacts for the built environment


Challenges• Development in floodplains• More need for summer cooling• Increased rain penetration• Subsidence/landslips• Rising demand for water but decreased

supply

Opportunities• Less demand for winter heating• More potential for solar energy• Increased amount of trees• Improved drainage infrastructure• Changing design standards

© White Design

Impacts for tourism


Challenges• Visitor destinations at capacity• Increased insurance costs • Damage to buildings• Staff and visitor health and safety• Coastal locations threatened by sea

level rise and increased erosion

Opportunities• Potentially longer season• Job creation• Diversification • Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods• New market opportunities

© Bournemouth Tourism

Impacts for transport


Challenges• Increased pressure on transport

system from increased visitors• Increased disruption• Increased damage to infrastructure

Opportunities• Increased scope for walking and cycling• Less frost damage to infrastructure and less

need for gritting• Fewer ice/snow related accidents and

infrastructure damage

Impacts for health


Challenges• Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin

cancer• Increased heat related deaths• Impacts of air pollution• Food poisoning• Infectious / tropical diseases• Service delivery impacts

Opportunities• Increased physical recreation –

reduction in obesity• Milder winters – reduction in excess

winter deaths• Fewer cold related admissions

Why be a resilient business?


• Improve goods and services

• Protect existing customer base creating opportunities with new ones

• Increases process efficiency

• Cuts cost and drives profitability

• Reduces likelihood of legal trouble

• Lowers insurance premiums

• Peace of mind for customers, suppliers, shareholders

• Job security for staff

Climate SouthWest partnership


Agriculture & forestry

Biodiversity Built environment

Business & utilities

HealthLocal authorities

TourismTransport

Preparing for change - Top Tips

1. Identify the effects to your business

2. Check your flood risk

3. Get help and advice

4. Learn from others

5. Reduce risk

6. Plan ahead

7. Check your insurance

8. Practical actions

9. Raise awareness

10. Review Health & Safety procedures

© Environment Agency


A short film featuring 11 tourism businesses in the SW who are taking action to adapt to climate change

‘ ‘Weathering the Storm’ coming soon....

“Changing Climate – Changing Business” DVD

Tools to increase resilience


Business Resilience Health Check• Interactive online tool• Identifies vulnerabilities• Produces bespoke prioritised action

plan• Pilot workshopswww.businessresiliencehealthcheck.co.uk

Severe Weather Impacts Monitoring System (SWIMS)

• Local authorities and partner organisations• Measures cost of severe weather events• Identifies impacts on services, communities,

reputation and the environment• Valuable decision-support tool• Making the business case!

Support available


• Business Resilience Healthcheck Tool and training www.businessresiliencehealthcheck.co.uk

• Change Adaptation Building the Business Case – IEMA guidance• CBI produced Whatever the Weather, Managing Risks from a changing Climate

www.cbi.org.uk • Weathering the Storm - Saving and Making Money in a Changing Climate

www.climate-em.org.uk• Climate UK www.Climateuk.net• VisitEngland ‘Responding to extreme weather’ guidance for tourism businesses

http://www.visitengland.org/flood-response/index.aspx• ClimatePrepared Website http://www.climateprepared.com/

http://www.visitengland.org/flood-response/index.aspx

http://www.climateprepared.com/

Climate SouthWest


www.climatesouthwest.org@ClimateSW

Building resilience to extreme weather in the south west.

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